Análise espacial da leishmaniose visceral canina no município de Panorama, São Paulo, Brasil

A leishmaniose visceral é uma zoonose de grande importância para a saúde pública, com ampla distribuição geográfica e epidemiologia complexa. Apesar de diversas estratégias de controle, a doença continua se expandindo, tendo o cão como principal reservatório. Levando em consideração que análises espaciais são úteis para compreender melhor a dinâmica da doença, avaliar fatores de risco e complementar os programas de prevenção e controle, o presente estudo teve como objetivo caracterizar a distribuição da leishmaniose visceral canina e relacionar sua dinâmica com características ou feições espaciais no município de Panorama (SP). A partir de dados secundários coletados em um inquérito sorológico entre agosto de 2012 e janeiro de 2013, 986 cães foram classificados como positivos e negativos de acordo com o protocolo oficial do Ministério da Saúde. Posteriormente uma análise espacial foi conduzida, compreendendo desde a visualização dos dados até a elaboração de um mapa de risco relativo, passando por análises de cluster global (função K) e local (varredura espacial). Para avaliar uma possível relação entre o cluster detectado com a vegetação na área de estudo, calculou-se o Índice de Vegetação por Diferença Normalizada (NDVI). A prevalência da doença encontrada na população de cães estudada foi de 20,3% (200/986). A visualização espacial demonstrou que tanto animais positivos quanto negativos estavam distribuídos por toda a área de estudo. O mapa de intensidade dos animais positivos apontou duas localidades de possíveis clusters, quando comparado ao mapa de intensidade dos animais negativos. As análises de cluster confirmaram a presença de um aglomerado e um cluster foi detectado na região central do município, com um risco relativo de 2,63 (p=0,01). A variação espacial do risco relativo na área de estudo foi mapeada e também identificou a mesma região como área significativa de alto risco (p<0,05). Não foram observadas diferenças no padrão de vegetação comparando as áreas interna e externa ao cluster. Sendo assim, novos estudos devem ser realizados com o intuito de compreender outros fatores de risco que possam ter levado à ocorrência do cluster descrito. A prevalência, a localização do cluster espacial e o mapa de risco relativo fornecem subsídios para direcionamento de esforços do Setor de Vigilância Epidemiológica de Panorama para áreas de alto risco, o que pode poupar recursos e aperfeiçoar o controle da leishmaniose visceral no município.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of the Huangtupo landslide in the Three Gorges region (China) constrained by radar interferometry

The Huangtupo landslide is one of the largest in the Three Gorges region, China. The county-seat town of Badong, located on the south shore between the Xiling and Wu gorges of the Yangtze River, was moved to this unstable slope prior to the construction of the Three Gorges Project, since the new Three Gorges reservoir completely submerged the location of the old city. The instability of the slope is affecting the new town by causing residential safety problems. The Huangtupo landslide provides scientists an opportunity to understand landslide response to fluctuating river water level and heavy rainfall episodes, which is essential to decide upon appropriate remediation measures. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) techniques provide a very useful tool for the study of superficial and spatially variable displacement phenomena. In this paper, three sets of radar data have been processed to investigate the Huangtupo landslide. Results show that maximum displacements are affecting the northwest zone of the slope corresponding to Riverside slumping mass I#. The other main landslide bodies (i.e. Riverside slumping mass II#, Substation landslide and Garden Spot landslide) exhibit a stable behaviour in agreement with in situ data, although some active areas have been recognized in the foot of the Substation landslide and Garden Spot landslide. InSAR has allowed us to study the kinematic behaviour of the landslide and to identify its active boundaries. Furthermore, the analysis of the InSAR displacement time-series has helped recognize the different displacement patterns on the slope and their relationships with various triggering factors. For those persistent scatterers, which exhibit long-term displacements, they can be decomposed into a creep model (controlled by geological conditions) and a superimposed recoverable term (dependent on external factors), which appears closely correlated with reservoir water level changes close to the river's edge. These results, combined with in situ data, provide a comprehensive analysis of the Huangtupo landslide, which is essential for its management.

Twenty-year advanced DInSAR analysis of severe land subsidence: The Alto Guadalentín Basin (Spain) case study

A twenty-year period of severe land subsidence evolution in the Alto Guadalentín Basin (southeast Spain) is monitored using multi-sensor SAR images, processed by advanced differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) techniques. The SAR images used in this study consist of four datasets acquired by ERS-1/2, ENVISAT, ALOS and COSMO-SkyMed satellites between 1992 and 2012. The integration of ground surface displacement maps retrieved for different time periods allows us to quantify up to 2.50 m of cumulated displacements that occurred between 1992 and 2012 in the Alto Guadalentín Basin. DInSAR results were locally compared with global positioning system (GPS) data available for two continuous stations located in the study area, demonstrating the high consistency of local vertical motion measurements between the two different surveying techniques. An average absolute error of 4.6 ± 4 mm for the ALOS data and of 4.8 ± 3.5 mm for the COSMO-SkyMed data confirmed the reliability of the analysis. The spatial analysis of DInSAR ground surface displacement reveals a direct correlation with the thickness of the compressible alluvial deposits. Detected ground subsidence in the past 20 years is most likely a consequence of a 100–200 m groundwater level drop that has persisted since the 1970s due to the overexploitation of the Alto Guadalentín aquifer system. The negative gradient of the pore pressure is responsible for the extremely slow consolidation of a very thick (> 100 m) layer of fine-grained silt and clay layers with low vertical hydraulic permeability (approximately 50 mm/h) wherein the maximum settlement has still not been reached.

Parental occupation and Ewing's sarcoma: Pooled and meta-analysis

Etiologic data on Ewing's sarcoma family of tumors (ESFT) are limited, with only 5 case-control studies reported. Interesting associations, particularly related to parental occupation, have been noted, but results are somewhat inconsistent. We conducted a pooled analysis of 3 case-control studies to assess the overall associations between parental occupation and ESFT. The pooled analysis provided data on parental occupational exposure on 199 cases of ESFT and 1,451 controls. The pooled odds ratio for the periconception and gestation periods were 2.3 (95% CI = 1.3-4.1) for children whose fathers had worked on farms and 3.9 (95% CI 1.6-9.9) for those whose mothers had farmed. For the periconception and gestation periods, there was a 3.5-fold increased risk for those with both parents having farmed and a doubling of risk for those with at least one parent having farmed; pattern of increasing risk with increasing number of years of postnatal parental exposure to farms was seen. No other occupational group (or more narrowly defined occupations) had other than minor inconsistent associations with the occurrence of ESFT. In addition, we conducted a meta-analysis of farm occupation (a main risk factor) including all 4 case-control studies that collected required information to consider parental occupation. Results of the meta-analysis were consistent with those from the pooled analysis. This collaborative analysis of available individual data on parental occupation and ESFT in the offspring provides evidence supporting the hypothesis of an association between ESFT and parental occupation in farming. © 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Training Bayesian networks for image segmentation

We are concerned with the problem of image segmentation in which each pixel is assigned to one of a predefined finite number of classes. In Bayesian image analysis, this requires fusing together local predictions for the class labels with a prior model of segmentations. Markov Random Fields (MRFs) have been used to incorporate some of this prior knowledge, but this not entirely satisfactory as inference in MRFs is NP-hard. The multiscale quadtree model of Bouman and Shapiro (1994) is an attractive alternative, as this is a tree-structured belief network in which inference can be carried out in linear time (Pearl 1988). It is an hierarchical model where the bottom-level nodes are pixels, and higher levels correspond to downsampled versions of the image. The conditional-probability tables (CPTs) in the belief network encode the knowledge of how the levels interact. In this paper we discuss two methods of learning the CPTs given training data, using (a) maximum likelihood and the EM algorithm and (b) emphconditional maximum likelihood (CML). Segmentations obtained using networks trained by CML show a statistically-significant improvement in performance on synthetic images. We also demonstrate the methods on a real-world outdoor-scene segmentation task.

Spatially clustered associations in health GIS

Overlaying maps using a desktop GIS is often the first step of a multivariate spatial analysis. The potential of this operation has increased considerably as data sources and Web services to manipulate them are becoming widely available via the Internet. Standards from the OGC enable such geospatial mashups to be seamless and user driven, involving discovery of thematic data. The user is naturally inclined to look for spatial clusters and correlation of outcomes. Using classical cluster detection scan methods to identify multivariate associations can be problematic in this context, because of a lack of control on or knowledge about background populations. For public health and epidemiological mapping, this limiting factor can be critical but often the focus is on spatial identification of risk factors associated with health or clinical status. Spatial entropy index HSu for the ScankOO analysis of the hypothetical dataset using a vicinity which is fixed by the number of points without distinction between their labels. (The size of the labels is proportional to the inverse of the index) In this article we point out that this association itself can ensure some control on underlying populations, and develop an exploratory scan statistic framework for multivariate associations. Inference using statistical map methodologies can be used to test the clustered associations. The approach is illustrated with a hypothetical data example and an epidemiological study on community MRSA. Scenarios of potential use for online mashups are introduced but full implementation is left for further research.

Spatially clustered associations in health related geospatial data

Overlaying maps using a desktop GIS is often the first step of a multivariate spatial analysis. The potential of this operation has increased considerably as data sources an dWeb services to manipulate them are becoming widely available via the Internet. Standards from the OGC enable such geospatial ‘mashups’ to be seamless and user driven, involving discovery of thematic data. The user is naturally inclined to look for spatial clusters and ‘correlation’ of outcomes. Using classical cluster detection scan methods to identify multivariate associations can be problematic in this context, because of a lack of control on or knowledge about background populations. For public health and epidemiological mapping, this limiting factor can be critical but often the focus is on spatial identification of risk factors associated with health or clinical status. In this article we point out that this association itself can ensure some control on underlying populations, and develop an exploratory scan statistic framework for multivariate associations. Inference using statistical map methodologies can be used to test the clustered associations. The approach is illustrated with a hypothetical data example and an epidemiological study on community MRSA. Scenarios of potential use for online mashups are introduced but full implementation is left for further research.

Conformational analysis and dielectric relaxation of polycarbosilanes and related materials

The conformational characteristics of poly(dimethylsilmethylene), poly(dimethylsilethene), poly(dimethylsilethane) and a related material, poly(2,2,5,5-tetramethyl-1-oxa-2,5-disilapentane), have been investigated using the method of molecular mechanics. In this method, a quantitative analysis of the factors affecting the nature and magnitude of the bond rotation potentials governing their conformational behaviour has been undertaken. Along with their structural data, the results obtained were employed to calculate a variety of conformationally-dependent properties for these polymers, including the characteristic ratio, the dipole moment ratio and the mean-square radius of gyration. In addition, the dielectric relaxation behaviour of two samples of poly(2,2,5,5-tetramethyl-1-oxa-2,5-disilapentane) with molar masses Mw = 28000 and Mw = 46000 respectively, have been studied as a function of temperature (179K-205K) and frequency (100-105Hz). Activation energies for the α-relaxation process and Davidson-Cole empirical distribution factors have been calculated.

A mixed methods investigation of parental factors in non-attendance at general paediatric hospital outpatient appointments

Non-attendance at paediatric outpatient appointments results in delayed diagnosis and treatment, putting children at risk of avoidable ill health, and incurring considerable health service costs. Links between missed appointments and clinical, socio-demographic, and access-related factors have been indicated, but parental cognitions associated with non-attendance have yet to be investigated. The aims of this project were to evaluate the effectiveness and theoretical bases of existing interventions designed to reduce non-attendance; to consider the ways in which missed appointments are managed by healthcare providers; to explore parents’ beliefs and experiences of attending and missing appointments; and to investigate the factors underlying these beliefs. A systematic literature review focusing on non-attendance interventions was conducted Within a mixed methods framework, interviews were conducted with healthcare professionals, subsequent interviews were conducted with parents who had attended or missed a General Paediatric outpatient appointment, and a cross-sectional questionnaire study of parents’ beliefs was implemented. The systematic review revealed that text message appointment reminders are effective at reducing non-attendance rates, but that no interventions have thus far been developed using theories of behaviour. Healthcare professionals recognised both barriers and parents’ beliefs as influences on attendance, but also believed there were ‘types’ of families who miss appointments. Healthcare professionals disagreed somewhat about how non-attendance should best be managed. The parent interview study found six themes. The findings reflect parents’ perceptions about the importance of attending and of their ability to attend. The results of the questionnaire study corroborate this structure of beliefs as the analysis produced two factors, the perceived ‘worth’ of attending and anticipated ‘worry’ when attending. This thesis demonstrates an original approach to investigating non-attendance at children’s outpatient appointments, using mixed methods and adopting a psychological rather than service-use perspective. The findings contribute to Health Psychology theory and offer recommendations for healthcare providers.

Regional variation in written American English

The first study of its kind, Regional Variation in Written American English takes a corpus-based approach to map over a hundred grammatical alternation variables across the United States. A multivariate spatial analysis of these maps shows that grammatical alternation variables follow a relatively small number of common regional patterns in American English, which can be explained based on both linguistic and extra-linguistic factors. Based on this rigorous analysis of extensive data, Grieve identifies five primary modern American dialect regions, demonstrating that regional variation is far more pervasive and complex in natural language than is generally assumed. The wealth of maps and data and the groundbreaking implications of this volume make it essential reading for students and researchers in linguistics, English language, geography, computer science, sociology and communication studies.

Development of methods for spatial modeling of sediments quality in Lake Okeechobee, Florida

The major objectives of this dissertation were to develop optimal spatial techniques to model the spatial-temporal changes of the lake sediments and their nutrients from 1988 to 2006, and evaluate the impacts of the hurricanes occurred during 1998–2006. Mud zone reduced about 10.5% from 1988 to 1998, and increased about 6.2% from 1998 to 2006. Mud areas, volumes and weight were calculated using validated Kriging models. From 1988 to 1998, mud thicknesses increased up to 26 cm in the central lake area. The mud area and volume decreased about 13.78% and 10.26%, respectively. From 1998 to 2006, mud depths declined by up to 41 cm in the central lake area, mud volume reduced about 27%. Mud weight increased up to 29.32% from 1988 to 1998, but reduced over 20% from 1998 to 2006. The reduction of mud sediments is likely due to re-suspension and redistribution by waves and currents produced by large storm events, particularly Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 and Wilma in 2005. Regression, kriging, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and regression-kriging models have been calibrated and validated for the spatial analysis of the sediments TP and TN of the lake. GWR models provide the most accurate predictions for TP and TN based on model performance and error analysis. TP values declined from an average of 651 to 593 mg/kg from 1998 to 2006, especially in the lake’s western and southern regions. From 1988 to 1998, TP declined in the northern and southern areas, and increased in the central-western part of the lake. The TP weights increased about 37.99%–43.68% from 1988 to 1998 and decreased about 29.72%–34.42% from 1998 to 2006. From 1988 to 1998, TN decreased in most areas, especially in the northern and southern lake regions; western littoral zone had the biggest increase, up to 40,000 mg/kg. From 1998 to 2006, TN declined from an average of 9,363 to 8,926 mg/kg, especially in the central and southern regions. The biggest increases occurred in the northern lake and southern edge areas. TN weights increased about 15%–16.2% from 1988 to 1998, and decreased about 7%–11% from 1998 to 2006.

Spatial and Temporal Changes in Groundwater Salinity in South Florida

A combination of statistical and interpolation methods and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis was used to evaluate the spatial and temporal changes in groundwater Cl− concentrations in Collier and Lee Counties (southwestern Florida), and Miami-Dade and Broward Counties (southeastern Florida), since 1985. In southwestern Florida, the average Cl− concentrations in the shallow wells (0–43 m) in Collier and Lee Counties increased from 132 mg L−1 in 1985 to 230 mg L−1 in 2000. The average Cl− concentrations in the deep wells (>43 m) of southwestern Florida increased from 392 mg L−1 in 1985 to 447 mg L−1 in 2000. Results also indicated a positive correlation between the mean sea level and Cl− concentrations and between the mean sea level and groundwater levels for the shallow wells. Concentrations in the Biscayne Aquifer (southeastern Florida) were significantly higher than those of southwestern Florida. The average Cl− concentrations increased from 159 mg L−1 in 1985 to 470 mg L−1 in 2010 for the shallow wells (<33 m) and from 1360 mg L−1 in 1985 to 2050 mg L−1 in 2010 for the deep wells (>33 m). In the Biscayne Aquifer, wells showed a positive or negative correlation between mean sea level and Cl− concentrations according to their location with respect to the saltwater intrusion line. Wells located inland behind canal control structures and west of the saltwater intrusion line showed negative correlation values, whereas wells located east of the saltwater intrusion line showed positive values. Overall, the results indicated that since 1985, there was a potential decline in the available freshwater resources estimated at about 12–17% of the available drinking-quality groundwater of the southeastern study area located in the Biscayne Aquifer.

Metacommunity Structure Along Resource and Disturbance Gradients in Everglades Wetlands

We evaluated metacommunity hypotheses of landscape arrangement (indicative of dispersal limitation) and environmental gradients (hydroperiod and nutrients) in structuring macroinvertebrate and fish communities in the southern Everglades. We used samples collected at sites from the eastern boundary of the southern Everglades and from Shark River Slough, to evaluate the role of these factors in metacommunity structure. We used eigenfunction spatial analysis to model community structure among sites and distance-based redundancy analysis to partition the variability in communities between spatial and environmental filters. For most animal communities, hydrological parameters had a greater influence on structure than nutrient enrichment, however both had large effects. The influence of spatial effects indicative of dispersal limitation was weak and only periphyton infauna appeared to be limited by regional dispersal. At the landscape scale, communities were well-mixed, but strongly influenced by hydrology. Local-scale species dominance was influenced by water-permanence and nutrient enrichment. Nutrient enrichment is limited to water inflow points associated with canals, which may explain its impact in this data set. Hydroperiod and nutrient enrichment are controlled by water managers; our analysis indicates that the decisions they make have strong effects on the communities at the base of the Everglades food web.

The evolutionary relationships and age of Homo naledi : an assessment using dated Bayesian phylogenetic methods

Acknowledgements We wish to express our gratitude to the National Geographic Society and the National Research Foundation of South Africa for funding the discovery, recovery, and analysis of the H. naledi material. The study reported here was also made possible by grants from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Canada Foundation for Innovation, the British Columbia Knowledge Development Fund, the Canada Research Chairs Program, Simon Fraser University, the DST/NRF Centre of Excellence in Palaeosciences (COE-Pal), as well as by a Discovery Grant from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, a Young Scientist Development Grant from the Paleontological Scientific Trust (PAST), a Baldwin Fellowship from the L.S.B. Leakey Foundation, and a Seed Grant and a Cornerstone Faculty Fellowship from the Texas A&M University College of Liberal Arts. We would like to thank the South African Heritage Resource Agency for the permits necessary to work on the Rising Star site; the Jacobs family for granting access; Wilma Lawrence, Bonita De Klerk, Merrill Van der Walt, and Justin Mukanku for their assistance during all phases of the project; Lucas Delezene for valuable discussion on the dental characters of H. naledi. We would also like to thank Peter Schmid for the preparation of the Dinaledi fossil material; Yoel Rak for explaining in detail some of the characters used in previous studies; William Kimbel for drawing our attention to the possibility that there might be a problem with Dembo et al.’s (2015) codes for the two characters related to the articular eminence; Will Stein for helpful discussion about the Bayesian analyses; Mike Lee for his comments on this manuscript; John Hawks for his support in organizing the Rising Star workshop; and the associate editor and three anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. We are grateful to S. Potze and the Ditsong Museum, B. Billings and the School of Anatomical Sciences at the University of the Witwatersrand, and B. Zipfel and the Evolutionary Studies Institute at the University of the Witwatersrand for providing access to the specimens in their care; the University of the Witwatersrand, the Evolutionary Studies Institute, and the South African National Centre of Excellence in PalaeoSciences for hosting a number of the authors while studying the material; and the Western Canada Research Grid for providing access to the high-performance computing facilities for the Bayesian analyses. Last but definitely not least, we thank the head of the Rising Star project, Lee Berger, for his leadership and support, and for encouraging us to pursue the study reported here.