967 resultados para Bayesian hypothesis testing
Resumo:
In this Letter, we propose a new and model-independent cosmological test for the distance-duality (DD) relation, eta = D(L)(z)(1 + z)(-2)/D(A)(z) = 1, where D(L) and D(A) are, respectively, the luminosity and angular diameter distances. For D(L) we consider two sub-samples of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) taken from Constitution data whereas D(A) distances are provided by two samples of galaxy clusters compiled by De Filippis et al. and Bonamente et al. by combining Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect and X-ray surface brightness. The SNe Ia redshifts of each sub-sample were carefully chosen to coincide with the ones of the associated galaxy cluster sample (Delta z < 0.005), thereby allowing a direct test of the DD relation. Since for very low redshifts, D(A)(z) approximate to D(L)(z), we have tested the DD relation by assuming that. is a function of the redshift parameterized by two different expressions: eta(z) = 1 + eta(0)z and eta(z) = 1 +eta(0)z/(1 + z), where eta(0) is a constant parameter quantifying a possible departure from the strict validity of the reciprocity relation (eta(0) = 0). In the best scenario (linear parameterization), we obtain eta(0) = -0.28(-0.44)(+0.44) (2 sigma, statistical + systematic errors) for the De Filippis et al. sample (elliptical geometry), a result only marginally compatible with the DD relation. However, for the Bonamente et al. sample (spherical geometry) the constraint is eta(0) = -0.42(-0.34)(+0.34) (3 sigma, statistical + systematic errors), which is clearly incompatible with the duality-distance relation.
Resumo:
Context. Be stars undergo outbursts producing a circumstellar disk from the ejected material. The beating of non-radial pulsations has been put forward as a possible mechanism of ejection. Aims. We analyze the pulsational behavior of the early B0.5IVe star HD 49330 observed during the first CoRoT long run towards the Galactical anticenter (LRA1). This Be star is located close to the lower edge of the beta Cephei instability strip in the HR diagram and showed a 0.03 mag outburst during the CoRoT observations. It is thus an ideal case for testing the aforementioned hypothesis. Methods. We analyze the CoRoT light curve of HD 49330 using Fourier methods and non-linear least square fitting. Results. In this star, we find pulsation modes typical of beta Cep stars (p modes) and SPB stars (g modes) with amplitude variations along the run directly correlated with the outburst. These results provide new clues about the origin of the Be phenomenon as well as strong constraints on the seismic modelling of Be stars.
Resumo:
Context. About 2/3 of the Be stars present the so-called V/R variations, a phenomenon characterized by the quasi-cyclic variation in the ratio between the violet and red emission peaks of the HI emission lines. These variations are generally explained by global oscillations in the circumstellar disk forming a one-armed spiral density pattern that precesses around the star with a period of a few years. Aims. This paper presents self-consistent models of polarimetric, photometric, spectrophotometric, and interferometric observations of the classical Be star zeta Tauri. The primary goal is to conduct a critical quantitative test of the global oscillation scenario. Methods. Detailed three-dimensional, NLTE radiative transfer calculations were carried out using the radiative transfer code HDUST. The most up-to-date research on Be stars was used as input for the code in order to include a physically realistic description for the central star and the circumstellar disk. The model adopts a rotationally deformed, gravity darkened central star, surrounded by a disk whose unperturbed state is given by a steady-state viscous decretion disk model. It is further assumed that this disk is in vertical hydrostatic equilibrium. Results. By adopting a viscous decretion disk model for zeta Tauri and a rigorous solution of the radiative transfer, a very good fit of the time-average properties of the disk was obtained. This provides strong theoretical evidence that the viscous decretion disk model is the mechanism responsible for disk formation. The global oscillation model successfully fitted spatially resolved VLTI/AMBER observations and the temporal V/R variations in the H alpha and Br gamma lines. This result convincingly demonstrates that the oscillation pattern in the disk is a one-armed spiral. Possible model shortcomings, as well as suggestions for future improvements, are also discussed.
Resumo:
Background: Discussion surrounding the settlement of the New World has recently gained momentum with advances in molecular biology, archaeology and bioanthropology. Recent evidence from these diverse fields is found to support different colonization scenarios. The currently available genetic evidence suggests a ""single migration'' model, in which both early and later Native American groups derive from one expansion event into the continent. In contrast, the pronounced anatomical differences between early and late Native American populations have led others to propose more complex scenarios, involving separate colonization events of the New World and a distinct origin for these groups. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using large samples of Early American crania, we: 1) calculated the rate of morphological differentiation between Early and Late American samples under three different time divergence assumptions, and compared our findings to the predicted morphological differentiation under neutral conditions in each case; and 2) further tested three dispersal scenarios for the colonization of the New World by comparing the morphological distances among early and late Amerindians, East Asians, Australo-Melanesians and early modern humans from Asia to geographical distances associated with each dispersion model. Results indicate that the assumption of a last shared common ancestor outside the continent better explains the observed morphological differences between early and late American groups. This result is corroborated by our finding that a model comprising two Asian waves of migration coming through Bering into the Americas fits the cranial anatomical evidence best, especially when the effects of diversifying selection to climate are taken into account. Conclusions: We conclude that the morphological diversity documented through time in the New World is best accounted for by a model postulating two waves of human expansion into the continent originating in East Asia and entering through Beringia.
Resumo:
Ecological systems are vulnerable to irreversible change when key system properties are pushed over thresholds, resulting in the loss of resilience and the precipitation of a regime shift. Perhaps the most important of such properties in human-modified landscapes is the total amount of remnant native vegetation. In a seminal study Andren proposed the existence of a fragmentation threshold in the total amount of remnant vegetation, below which landscape-scale connectivity is eroded and local species richness and abundance become dependent on patch size. Despite the fact that species patch-area effects have been a mainstay of conservation science there has yet to be a robust empirical evaluation of this hypothesis. Here we present and test a new conceptual model describing the mechanisms and consequences of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes, identifying the fragmentation threshold as a first step in a positive feedback mechanism that has the capacity to impair ecological resilience, and drive a regime shift in biodiversity. The model considers that local extinction risk is defined by patch size, and immigration rates by landscape vegetation cover, and that the recovery from local species losses depends upon the landscape species pool. Using a unique dataset on the distribution of non-volant small mammals across replicate landscapes in the Atlantic forest of Brazil, we found strong evidence for our model predictions - that patch-area effects are evident only at intermediate levels of total forest cover, where landscape diversity is still high and opportunities for enhancing biodiversity through local management are greatest. Furthermore, high levels of forest loss can push native biota through an extinction filter, and result in the abrupt, landscape-wide loss of forest-specialist taxa, ecological resilience and management effectiveness. The proposed model links hitherto distinct theoretical approaches within a single framework, providing a powerful tool for analysing the potential effectiveness of management interventions.
Resumo:
A search for a sidereal modulation in the MINOS near detector neutrino data was performed. If present, this signature could be a consequence of Lorentz and CPT violation as predicted by the effective field theory called the standard-model extension. No evidence for a sidereal signal in the data set was found, implying that there is no significant change in neutrino propagation that depends on the direction of the neutrino beam in a sun-centered inertial frame. Upper limits on the magnitudes of the Lorentz and CPT violating terms in the standard-model extension lie between 10(-4) and 10(-2) of the maximum expected, assuming a suppression of these signatures by a factor of 10(-17).
Resumo:
We propose and analyze two different Bayesian online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models and compare their performance with the already known Baldi-Chauvin Algorithm. Using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a measure of generalization we draw learning curves in simplified situations for these algorithms and compare their performances.
Resumo:
We consider a model where sterile neutrinos can propagate in a large compactified extra dimension giving rise to Kaluza-Klein (KK) modes and the standard model left-handed neutrinos are confined to a 4-dimensional spacetime brane. The KK modes mix with the standard neutrinos modifying their oscillation pattern. We examine former and current experiments such as CHOOZ, KamLAND, and MINOS to estimate the impact of the possible presence of such KK modes on the determination of the neutrino oscillation parameters and simultaneously obtain limits on the size of the largest extra dimension. We found that the presence of the KK modes does not essentially improve the quality of the fit compared to the case of the standard oscillation. By combining the results from CHOOZ, KamLAND, and MINOS, in the limit of a vanishing lightest neutrino mass, we obtain the stronger bound on the size of the extra dimension as similar to 1.0(0.6) mu m at 99% C.L. for normal (inverted) mass hierarchy. If the lightest neutrino mass turns out to be larger, 0.2 eV, for example, we obtain the bound similar to 0.1 mu m. We also discuss the expected sensitivities on the size of the extra dimension for future experiments such as Double CHOOZ, T2K, and NO nu A.
Resumo:
Cosmological analyses based on currently available observations are unable to rule out a sizeable coupling between dark energy and dark matter. However, the signature of the coupling is not easy to grasp, since the coupling is degenerate with other cosmological parameters, such as the dark energy equation of state and the dark matter abundance. We discuss possible ways to break such degeneracy. Based on the perturbation formalism, we carry out the global fitting by using the latest observational data and get a tight constraint on the interaction between dark sectors. We find that the appropriate interaction can alleviate the coincidence problem.
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Online music databases have increased significantly as a consequence of the rapid growth of the Internet and digital audio, requiring the development of faster and more efficient tools for music content analysis. Musical genres are widely used to organize music collections. In this paper, the problem of automatic single and multi-label music genre classification is addressed by exploring rhythm-based features obtained from a respective complex network representation. A Markov model is built in order to analyse the temporal sequence of rhythmic notation events. Feature analysis is performed by using two multi-variate statistical approaches: principal components analysis (unsupervised) and linear discriminant analysis (supervised). Similarly, two classifiers are applied in order to identify the category of rhythms: parametric Bayesian classifier under the Gaussian hypothesis (supervised) and agglomerative hierarchical clustering (unsupervised). Qualitative results obtained by using the kappa coefficient and the obtained clusters corroborated the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Resumo:
The degree of homogeneity is normally assessed by the variability of the results of independent analyses of several (e.g., 15) normal-scale replicates. Large sample instrumental neutron activation analysis (LS-INAA) with a collimated Ge detector allows inspecting the degree of homogeneity of the initial batch material, using a kilogram-size sample. The test is based on the spatial distributions of induced radioactivity. Such test was applied to samples of Brazilian whole (green) coffee beans (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) of approximately I kg in the frame of development of a coffee reference material. Results indicated that the material do not contain significant element composition inhomogeneities between batches of approximately 30-50 g, masses typically forming the starting base of a reference material.
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Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that in obese children: 1) Ventilatory efficiency (VentE) is decreased during graded exercise; and 2) Weight loss through diet alone (D) improves VentE, and 3) diet associated with exercise training (DET) leads to greater improvement in VentE than by D. Thirty-eight obese children (10 +/- 0.2 years; BMI > 95(th) percentile) were randomly divided into two Study groups: D (n=17; BMI = 30 +/- 1 kg/m(2)) and DET (n = 21; 28 +/- 1 kg/m(2)). Ten lean children were included in a control group (10 +/- 0.3 years; 17 +/- 0.5 kg/m(2)). All children performed maximal treadmill testing with respiratory gas analysis (breath-by-breath) to determine the ventilatory anaerobic threshold (VAT) and peak oxygen consumption (VO(2) peak). VentE was determined by the VE/VCO(2) method at VAT. Obese children showed lower VO(2) peak and lower VentE than controls (p < 0.05). After interventions, all obese children reduced body weight (p < 0.05). D group did not improve in terms of VO(2) peak or VentE (p > 0.05). In contrast, the DET group showed increased VO(2) peak (p = 0.01) and improved VentE(Delta VE/VCO(2) = -6.1 +/- 0.9; p = 0.01). VentE is decreased in obese children, where weight loss by means of DET, but not D alone, improves VentE and cardiorespiratory fitness during graded exercise.
Resumo:
Background and Study Aim: Evaluation of sport skills test can be very useful tool for coach practice. The aim of the present paper was: (a) to evaluate the reliability and accuracy of the Specific Physical Fitness Tests (SPFT) (b) to review the results of karate athletes who represent different weight categories, and who are at different stages of schooling; (c) to establish grading criteria of physical fitness preparation. Material/Methods: The reseach was conducted among 219 Kyokushin karate players, whose profiles were presented as (chi) over bar +/- SD and their main characteristics were the following: age 26.8 +/- 4.67 (19-39) years, body mass 75.2 +/- 8.35 (50-97) kg and body height 176.4 +/- 5.67 (160-196) cm. The value of the BMI amounted to 24.1 +/- 2.17 (17.9-29.4) kg/m(2). All the subjects of the research had training experience of 10.5 +/- 3.71 (4-20) years and their degree of proficiency ranged from 4(th) kyu to 3(rd) dan. The physical fitness trials proposed by Story (1989) included: hip turning speed, speed punches, flexibility, rapid kicks, agility, and evasion actions. It was supplemented by a test of local strength endurance, composing a battery of the SPFT, which was implemented by first of the authors between 1991 and 2006. Results: SPFT is characterized by high reliability and it can be used to diagnose the physical fitness preparation and monitor the individual results of training. It discriminates accurately competitors with different sports level and it is characterized by very high accuracy, it is correlated with the test results of motor general physical fitness abilities and coordination abilities as well as it is connected with the somatic build of the athlete. The performance classification table was developed on the basis of our research. Discussion: Results obtained in SPFT were shortly discussed. Conclusions: The collected results of our research allowed us to come to, the conclusion: The table can be applied not only to assess karate fighters, but also adepts in taekwondo, kick-boxing, ju-jitsu, hapkido or other mixed martial arts.
Resumo:
Hot tensile and creep tests were carried out on Kanthal A1 alloy in the temperature range from 600 to 800 degrees C. Each of these sets of data were analyzed separately according to their own methodologies, but an attempt was made to find a correlation between them. A new criterion proposed for converting hot tensile data to creep data, makes possible the analysis of the two kinds of results according to usual creep relations like: Norton, Monkman-Grant, Larson-Miller and others. The remarkable compatibility verified between both sets of data by this procedure strongly suggests that hot tensile data can be converted to creep data and vice-versa for Kanthal A1 alloy, as verified previously for other metallic materials.