Resilient Maroochydore 2029 : Urban Design Futures

Resilient Maroochydore 2029 This exhibition showcases the work of 4th year undergraduate Landscape Architecture students in response to issues of sustainability in Maroochydore on the Queensland Sunshine coast. The projects comprising this exhibition all investigate possible design futures for the Maroochydore Centre, in the light of a series of new disturbance scenarios. Specific disturbances upon the landscape have been imagined, and design resolutions developed based on resilience to these disturbances. The proposals investigate how the Maroochydore Centre might respond to these scenarios, and how future components of the Centre might be designed for greater ‘resilience’. The Exhibition Five groups of students (32 in total) produced five strategic planning and design options toward this future: Team Transect: “What happens to a region following a sustained period of economic prosperity, with affordable property and negligible unemployment? This proposal investigates the effects on a community of massive population explosion, land shortages and inadequate planning regulations following an extended boom period.” The Foodfighters: “This proposal considers the scenario of massive food shortages and of escalating prices, and the possibility of government intervention to stabilise food supply. Strategies based upon simplified, collaborative approaches to food production are investigated.” The TTMKG: “This proposal explores the scenario of Peak Oil and the subsequent effects on society of homelessness, large scale unemployment, food shortages and global financial and political instability. Individual opportunities are restricted by the limitations of bicycle transportation.” Team Peak: “Peak Oil has restricted private vehicle transport to only the most wealthy, while public transport systems are under immense pressure. Rising unemployment drives localised trade initiatives, and the global import/export market has collapsed. This proposal considers the transition of a community from its position in a global economy to that of a relocalised economy, where basic needs are secured as close to home as possible.” After the City: “A rapid population decline as a result of the region’s failing economy has resulted in a fragmented urban fabric. This proposal investigates the possibility of new suburbanisation, reinterpretation and reinvention of space through phased processes.”

Bayesian computation via empirical likelihood

Approximate Bayesian computation has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical likelihood provides another route to such settings that bypasses simulations from the model and the choices of the approximate Bayesian computation parameters (summary statistics, distance, tolerance), while being convergent in the number of observations. Furthermore, bypassing model simulations may lead to significant time savings in complex models, for instance those found in population genetics. The Bayesian computation with empirical likelihood algorithm we develop in this paper also provides an evaluation of its own performance through an associated effective sample size. The method is illustrated using several examples, including estimation of standard distributions, time series, and population genetics models.

Interrelations between acute and chronic exercise and the immune and endocrine systems

Interaction between the endocrine and immune system is necessary to regulate our health. However, under some conditions, stress hormones can overstimulate or suppress the immune system, resulting in harmful consequences (1). Stress is often considered negative, yet it is an intrinsic part of everyday life. Stress is not clearly defined; it is context-specific and depends on the nature of factors that challenge our body. Internal stimuli will elicit different stress reactions compared with external stimuli (1). Similarly, some stressors will induce responses that may benefit survival, whereas others will cause disturbances that may endanger our health. Stress also depends on how our bodies perceive and respond to stressful stimuli (1).

The effect of exercise training on sleep quality in heart failure

Background: Heart failure is a serious condition estimated to affect 1.5-2.0% of the Australian population with a point prevalence of approximately 1% in people aged 50-59 years, 10% in people aged 65 years or more and over 50% in people aged 85 years or over (National Heart Foundation of Australian and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2006). Sleep disturbances are a common complaint of persons with heart failure. Disturbances of sleep can worsen heart failure symptoms, impair independence, reduce quality of life and lead to increased health care utilisation in patients with heart failure. Previous studies have identified exercise as a possible treatment for poor sleep in patients without cardiac disease however there is limited evidence of the effect of this form of treatment in heart failure. Aim: The primary objective of this study was to examine the effect of a supervised, hospital-based exercise training programme on subjective sleep quality in heart failure patients. Secondary objectives were to examine the association between changes in sleep quality and changes in depression, exercise performance and body mass index. Methods: The sample for the study was recruited from metropolitan and regional heart failure services across Brisbane, Queensland. Patients with a recent heart failure related hospital admission who met study inclusion criteria were recruited. Participants were screened by specialist heart failure exercise staff at each site to ensure exercise safety prior to study enrolment. Demographic data, medical history, medications, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score, Geriatric Depression Score, exercise performance (six minute walk test), weight and height were collected at Baseline. Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score, Geriatric Depression Score, exercise performance and weight were repeated at 3 months. One hundred and six patients admitted to hospital with heart failure were randomly allocated to a 3-month disease-based management programme of education and self-management support including standard exercise advice (Control) or to the same disease management programme as the Control group with the addition of a tailored physical activity program (Intervention). The intervention consisted of 1 hour of aerobic and resistance exercise twice a week. Programs were designed and supervised by an exercise specialist. The main outcome measure was achievement of a clinically significant change (.3 points) in global Pittsburgh Sleep Quality score. Results: Intervention group participants reported significantly greater clinical improvement in global sleep quality than Control (p=0.016). These patients also exhibited significant improvements in component sleep disturbance (p=0.004), component sleep quality (p=0.015) and global sleep quality (p=0.032) after 3 months of supervised exercise intervention. Improvements in sleep quality correlated with improvements in depression (p<0.001) and six minute walk distance (p=0.04). When study results were examined categorically, with subjects classified as either "poor" or "good" sleepers, subjects in the Control group were significantly more likely to report "poor" sleep at 3 months (p=0.039) while Intervention participants were likely to report "good" sleep at this time (p=0.08). Conclusion: Three months of supervised, hospital based, aerobic and resistance exercise training improved subjective sleep quality in patients with heart failure. This is the first randomised controlled trial to examine the role of aerobic and resistance exercise training in the improvement of sleep quality for patients with this disease. While this study establishes exercise as a therapy for poor sleep quality, further research is needed to investigate the effect of exercise training on objective parameters of sleep in this population.

Crisis response planning in tunnel and road networks

Critical road infrastructure (such as tunnels and overpasses) is of major significance to society and constitutes major components of interdependent, ‘systems and networks’. Failure in critical components of these wide area infrastructure systems can often result in cascading disturbances with secondary and tertiary impacts - some of which may become initiating sources of failure in their own right, triggering further systems failures across wider networks. Perrow1) considered the impact of our increasing use of technology in high-risk fields, analysing the implications on everyday life and argued that designers of these types of infrastructure systems cannot predict every possible failure scenario nor create perfect contingency plans for operators. Challenges exist for transport system operators in the conceptualisation and implementation of response and subsequent recovery planning for significant events. Disturbances can vary from reduced traffic flow causing traffic congestion throughout the local road network(s) and subsequent possible loss of income to businesses and industry to a major incident causing loss of life or complete loss of an asset. Many organisations and institutions, despite increasing recognition of the effects of crisis events, are not adequately prepared to manage crises2). It is argued that operators of land transport infrastructure are in a similar category of readiness given the recent instances of failures in road tunnels. These unexpected infrastructure failures, and their ultimately identified causes, suggest there is significant room for improvement. As a result, risk profiles for road transport systems are often complex due to the human behaviours and the inter-mix of technical and organisational components and the managerial coverage needed for the socio-technical components and the physical infrastructure. In this sense, the span of managerial oversight may require new approaches to asset management that combines the notion of risk and continuity management. This paper examines challenges in the planning of response and recovery practices of owner/operators of transport systems (above and below ground) in Australia covering: • Ageing or established infrastructure; and • New-build infrastructure. With reference to relevant international contexts this paper seeks to suggest options for enhancing the planning and practice for crisis response in these transport networks and as a result support the resilience of Critical Infrastructure.

Displacement motion prediction of a landing deck for recovery operations of rotary UAVs

This paper proposes a practical prediction procedure for vertical displacement of a Rotarywing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (RUAV) landing deck in the presence of stochastic sea state disturbances. A proper time series model tending to capture characteristics of the dynamic relationship between an observer and a landing deck is constructed, with model orders determined by a novel principle based on Bayes Information Criterion (BIC) and coefficients identified using the Forgetting Factor Recursive Least Square (FFRLS) method. In addition, a fast-converging online multi-step predictor is developed, which can be implemented more rapidly than the Auto-Regressive (AR) predictor as it requires less memory allocations when updating coefficients. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed prediction approach exhibits satisfactory prediction performance, making it suitable for integration into ship-helicopter approach and landing guidance systems in consideration of computational capacity of the flight computer.

Analysis of 3 common polymorphisms in the KCNK18 gene in an Australian migraine case-control cohort

Migraine is a common neurological disorder characterised by temporary disabling attacks of severe head pain and associated disturbances. There is significant evidence to suggest a genetic aetiology to the disease however few causal mutations have been conclusively linked to the migraine subtypes Migraine with (MA) or without Aura (MO). The Potassium Channel, Subfamily K, member 18 (KCNK18) gene, coding the potassium channel TRESK, is the first gene in which a rare mutation resulting in a non-functional truncated protein has been identified and causally linked to MA in a multigenerational family. In this study, three common polymorphisms in the KCNK18 gene were analysed for genetic variation in an Australian case-control migraine population consisting of 340 migraine cases and 345 controls. No association was observed for the polymorphisms examined with the migraine phenotype or with any haplotypes across the gene. Therefore even though the KCNK18 gene is the only gene to be causally linked to MA our studies indicate that common genetic variation in the gene is not a contributor to MA.

Investigation of APOE isoforms and the association between APOE E3 and E4 with migraine in the Australian Caucasian population

Migraine is a debilitating neurovascular disease that is associated with pulsating head pain accompanied by nausea, vomiting, photophobia, phonophobia and sometimes visual sensory disturbances. Because of its role in nitric oxide regulation and interleukin release, apolipoprotein E (APOE) has been suggested to play a role in the migraine pathogenesis pathway. This study evaluated the potential role of three APOE variants in an Australian population and the role that they may play in susceptibility to migraine. The study found no significant association between the tested variants and migraine for any of the APOE variants investigated.

A possible role for mitochondrial dysfunction in migraine

Migraine is a common neurological disorder characterised by debilitating head pain and an assortment of additional symptoms which can include nausea, emesis, photophobia, phonophobia and occasionally visual sensory disturbances. Migraine is a complex disease caused by an interplay between predisposing genetic variants and environmental factors. It affects approximately 12 % of studied Caucasian populations with affected individuals being predominantly female. Genes involved in neurological, vascular or hormonal pathways have all been implicated in predisposition towards developing migraine. All of these are nuclear encoded genes, but given the role of mitochondria in a number of neurological disorders and in energy production it is possible that mitochondrial variants may play a role in the pathogenesis of this disease. Mitochondrial DNA has been a useful tool for studying population genetics and human genetic diseases due to the clear inheritance shown through successive generations. Given the clear gender bias found in migraine patients it may be important to investigate X-linked inheritance and mitochondrial-related variants in this disorder. This paper explores the possibility that mitochondrial DNA changes may play a role in migraine. Few variants in the mitochondrial genome have so far been investigated in migraine and new studies should be aimed towards investigating the role of mitochondrial DNA in this common disorder.

The role of the MTHFR gene in migraine

Migraine is a common neurological disorder and is characterized by debilitating head pain and an assortment of additional symptoms which can include nausea, emesis, photophobia, phonophobia, and occasionally, visual sensory disturbances. A number of genes have been implicated in the pathogenesis of this disease, including genes involved in regulating the vascular system. Of particular importance are the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene and the role it plays in migraine with aura. Migraine with aura has previously been shown to have a significant comorbidity with stroke, making the vascular class of genes a priority for migraine studies. In this report, we outline the importance of the MTHFR gene in migraine and also discuss the use of a genetic isolate to investigate MTHFR genetic variants. From this study, 3 MTHFR single nucleotide polymorphisms showing association with migraine in the Norfolk Island population have been identified, thus reinforcing the potential role of MTHFR in migraine susceptibility. Further studies will continue to build a gene profile of variants involved in the complex disease migraine and improve understanding of the underlying genetic causes of this disorder.

A pharmacogenomic evaluation of migraine therapy

Migraine is a common idiopathic primary headache disorder with significant mental, physical and social health implications. Accompanying an intense unilateral pulsating head pain other characteristic migraine symptoms include nausea, emesis, phonophobia, photophobia and in approximately 20-30% of migraine cases, neurologic disturbances associated with the aura phase. Although selective serotonin (5-HT) receptor agonists (i.e., 5-HT(1B/1D)) are successful in alleviating migrainous symptoms in < or = 70% of known sufferers, for the remaining 30%, additional migraine abortive medications remain unsuccessful, not tested or yet to be identified. Genetic characterization of the migrainous disorder is making steady progress with an increasing number of genomic susceptibility loci now identified on chromosomes 1q, 4q, 5q, 6p, 11q, 14q, 15q, 17p, 18q, 19p and Xq. The 4q, 5q, 17p and 18q loci involve endophenotypic susceptibility regions for various migrainous symptoms. In an effort to develop individualized pharmacotherapeutics, the identification of these migraine endophenotypic loci may well be the catalyst needed to aid in this goal. In this review the authors discuss the present treatment of migraine, known genomic susceptibility regions and results from migraine (genetic) association studies. The authors also discuss pharmacogenomic considerations for more individualized migraine prophylactic treatments.

Modeling electricity price events as point processes

Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.

Using cultural-historical activity theory (CHAT) to study the relationship between school leadership and organisational change

This study aimed to identify how school leaders’ practices influence department activities during school transformation. The method used to explore emerging disturbances and contradictions within and between school departments was based on Cultural Historical Activity Theory (CHAT). The findings show that in order to implement educational changes in schools successfully, leaders should promote the change they envision as being highly consistent with the current collective identity (shared object) of the departments. From this perspective, the systemic components of the school departments are given a sense of preservation and continuity, rather than loss.

Design of a gust-attenuation controller for landing operations of Unmanned Autonomous Helicopters

This paper presents an innovative and practical approach to controlling heave motion in the presence of acute stochastic atmospheric disturbances during landing operations of an Unmanned Autonomous Helicopter (UAH). A heave motion model of an UAH is constructed for the purpose of capturing dynamic variations of thrust due to horizontal wind gusts. Additionally, through construction of an effective observer to estimate magnitudes of random gusts, a promising and feasible feedback-feedforward PD controller is developed, based on available measurements from onboard equipment. The controller dynamically and synchronously compensates for aerodynamic variations of heave motion resulting from gust influence, to increase the disturbance-attenuation ability of the UAH in a windy environment. Simulation results justify the reliability and efficiency of the suggested gust observer to estimate gust levels when applied to the heave motion model of a small unmanned helicopter, and verify suitability of the recommended control strategy to realistic environmental conditions.

Spatio-temporal modelling of ultrafine particle number concentration

This thesis developed semi-parametric regression models for estimating the spatio-temporal distribution of outdoor airborne ultrafine particle number concentration (PNC). The models developed incorporate multivariate penalised splines and random walks and autoregressive errors in order to estimate non-linear functions of space, time and other covariates. The models were applied to data from the "Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions and Child" project in Brisbane, Australia, and to longitudinal measurements of air quality in Helsinki, Finland. The spline and random walk aspects of the models reveal how the daily trend in PNC changes over the year in Helsinki and the similarities and differences in the daily and weekly trends across multiple primary schools in Brisbane. Midday peaks in PNC in Brisbane locations are attributed to new particle formation events at the Port of Brisbane and Brisbane Airport.