Customer Lifetime Value: a framework for application in the insurance industry - Building a Business Process to Generate and Maintain an Automatic Estimation Agent

Research Project submited as partial fulfilment for the Master Degree in Statistics and Information Management

Development of a semi-automatic self learning pattern recognition system for the control of electronic boards

This project was funded under the Applied Research Grants Scheme administered by Enterprise Ireland. The project was a partnership between Galway - Mayo Institute of Technology and an industrial company, Tyco/Mallinckrodt Galway. The project aimed to develop a semi - automatic, self - learning pattern recognition system capable of detecting defects on the printed circuits boards such as component vacancy, component misalignment, component orientation, component error, and component weld. The research was conducted in three directions: image acquisition, image filtering/recognition and software development. Image acquisition studied the process of forming and digitizing images and some fundamental aspects regarding the human visual perception. The importance of choosing the right camera and illumination system for a certain type of problem has been highlighted. Probably the most important step towards image recognition is image filtering, The filters are used to correct and enhance images in order to prepare them for recognition. Convolution, histogram equalisation, filters based on Boolean mathematics, noise reduction, edge detection, geometrical filters, cross-correlation filters and image compression are some examples of the filters that have been studied and successfully implemented in the software application. The software application developed during the research is customized in order to meet the requirements of the industrial partner. The application is able to analyze pictures, perform the filtering, build libraries, process images and generate log files. It incorporates most of the filters studied and together with the illumination system and the camera it provides a fully integrated framework able to analyze defects on printed circuit boards.

The tobacco industry's past role in weight control related to smoking.

BACKGROUND: Smoking is thought to produce an appetite-suppressing effect by many smokers. Thus, the fear of body weight gain often outweighs the perception of health benefits associated with smoking cessation, particularly in adolescents. We examined whether the tobacco industry played a role in appetite and body weight control related to smoking and smoking cessation. METHODS: We performed a systematic search within the archives of six major US and UK tobacco companies (American Tobacco, Philip Morris, RJ Reynolds, Lorillard, Brown & Williamson and British American Tobacco) that were Defendants in tobacco litigation settled in 1998. Findings are dated from 1949 to 1999. RESULTS: The documents revealed the strategies planned and used by the industry to enhance effects of smoking on weight and appetite, mostly by chemical modifications of cigarettes contents. Appetite-suppressant molecules, such as tartaric acid and 2-acetylpyridine were added to some cigarettes. CONCLUSION: These tobacco companies played an active and not disclaimed role in the anti-appetite effects of smoking, at least in the past, by adding appetite-suppressant molecules into their cigarettes.

The tobacco industry's past role in weight control related to smoking

Résumé (français)ContexteLe tabagisme est connu pour produire un effet coupe-faim chez la plupart des fumeurs. La crainte de la prise de poids à l'arrêt de la cigarette l'emporte souvent sur la perception des bénéfices sur la santé associés à l'abandon du tabac, particulièrement chez les adolescents. Nous avons examiné quel a été le rôle de l'industrie du tabac dans cet effet de la fumée sur l'appétit et sur le contrôle du poids.MéthodesNous avons réalisé une recherche systématique dans les archives de six grandes compagnies de tabac américaines et du Royaume-Uni (American Tobacco, Philip Morris, RJ Reynolds, Lorillard, Brown & Williamson et British American Tobacco) qui avaient été mises en cause dans les procès du tabac en 1998 aux Etats-Unis. Les résultats concernent les années 1949 à 1999.RésultatsLes archives de ces industries montrent qu'elles ont mis au point et ont utilisé diverses stratégies pour améliorer les effets du tabagisme sur le poids et l'appétit, la plupart du temps en réalisant des modifications chimiques des cigarettes. Des substances coupe-faim, telles que l'acide tartrique et le 2-acétylpyridine ont notamment été ajoutées aux cigarettes.ConclusionEn tout cas par le passé, ces compagnies de tabac ont activement modifié leurs cigarettes afin d'en augmenter l'effet de diminution de l'appétit, notamment en y ajoutant des substances coupe-faim.

Optimization of treatment with interferon beta in multiple sclerosis. Usefulness of automatic system application criteria

Background. A software based tool has been developed (Optem) to allow automatize the recommendations of the Canadian Multiple Sclerosis Working Group for optimizing MS treatment in order to avoid subjective interpretation. METHODS: Treatment Optimization Recommendations (TORs) were applied to our database of patients treated with IFN beta1a IM. Patient data were assessed during year 1 for disease activity, and patients were assigned to 2 groups according to TOR: "change treatment" (CH) and "no change treatment" (NCH). These assessments were then compared to observed clinical outcomes for disease activity over the following years. RESULTS: We have data on 55 patients. The "change treatment" status was assigned to 22 patients, and "no change treatment" to 33 patients. The estimated sensitivity and specificity according to last visit status were 73.9% and 84.4%. During the following years, the Relapse Rate was always higher in the "change treatment" group than in the "no change treatment" group (5 y; CH: 0.7, NCH: 0.07; p < 0.001, 12 m - last visit; CH: 0.536, NCH: 0.34). We obtained the same results with the EDSS (4 y; CH: 3.53, NCH: 2.55, annual progression rate in 12 m - last visit; CH: 0.29, NCH: 0.13). CONCLUSION: Applying TOR at the first year of therapy allowed accurate prediction of continued disease activity in relapses and disability progression.

Productos químicos : peligrosidad y control del riesgo sanitario

Publicado en la página web de la Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social: www.juntadeandalucia.es/salud (Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social / Ciudadanía / Nuestra Salud / Medio ambiente y Salud / Productos Químicos y riesgos sanitarios)

Productos químicos : peligrosidad y control del riesgo sanitario

Publicado en la página web de la Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social: www.juntadeandalucia.es/salud (Consejería de Salud y Bienestar Social / Ciudadanía / Nuestra Salud / Medio ambiente y Salud / Productos Químicos y riesgos sanitarios)

Human Exposure to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals and Prenatal Risk Factors for Cryptorchidism and Hypospadias: A Nested Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND. Exposure to xenoestrogens during pregnancy may disturb the development and function of male sexual organs. OBJECTIVE. In this study we aimed to determine whether the combined effect of environmental estrogens measured as total effective xenoestrogen burden (TEXB) is a risk factor for male urogenital malformations. METHODS. In a case-control study, nested in a mother-child cohort (n = 702) established at Granada University Hospital, we compared 50 newborns with diagnosis of cryptorchidism and/or hypospadias with 114 boys without malformations matched by gestational age, date of birth, and parity. Controls did not differ from the total cohort in confounding variables. TEXB and levels of 16 organochlorine pesticides were measured in placenta tissues. Characteristics of parents, pregnancy, and birth were gathered by questionnaire. We used conditional and unconditional regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS. TEXB from organohalogenated compounds was detectable in 72% and 54% of case and control placentas, respectively. Compared with controls, cases had an OR for detectable versus non-detectable TEXB of 2.82 (95% CI, 1.10-7.24). More pesticides were detected in cases than in controls (9.34 +/- 3.19 vs. 6.97 +/- 3.93). ORs for cases with detectable levels of pesticides, after adjusting for potential confounders in the conditional regression analysis, were o,p'-DDT (OR = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.03-4.89), p,p'-DDT (OR = 2.63; 95% CI, 1.21-5.72), lindane (OR = 3.38; 95% CI, 1.36-8.38), mirex (OR = 2.85; 95% CI, 1.22-6.66), and endosulfan alpha (OR = 2.19; 95% CI, 0.99-4.82). Engagement of mothers in agriculture (OR = 3.47; 95% CI, 1.33-9.03), fathers' occupational exposure to xenoestrogens (OR = 2.98; 95% CI, 1.11-8.01), and history of previous stillbirths (OR = 4.20; 95% CI, 1.11-16.66) were also associated with risk of malformations. CONCLUSIONS We found an increased risk for male urogenital malformations related to the combined effect of environmental estrogens in placenta.

Automatic classification of MR scans in Alzheimer's disease.

To be diagnostically useful, structural MRI must reliably distinguish Alzheimer's disease (AD) from normal aging in individual scans. Recent advances in statistical learning theory have led to the application of support vector machines to MRI for detection of a variety of disease states. The aims of this study were to assess how successfully support vector machines assigned individual diagnoses and to determine whether data-sets combined from multiple scanners and different centres could be used to obtain effective classification of scans. We used linear support vector machines to classify the grey matter segment of T1-weighted MR scans from pathologically proven AD patients and cognitively normal elderly individuals obtained from two centres with different scanning equipment. Because the clinical diagnosis of mild AD is difficult we also tested the ability of support vector machines to differentiate control scans from patients without post-mortem confirmation. Finally we sought to use these methods to differentiate scans between patients suffering from AD from those with frontotemporal lobar degeneration. Up to 96% of pathologically verified AD patients were correctly classified using whole brain images. Data from different centres were successfully combined achieving comparable results from the separate analyses. Importantly, data from one centre could be used to train a support vector machine to accurately differentiate AD and normal ageing scans obtained from another centre with different subjects and different scanner equipment. Patients with mild, clinically probable AD and age/sex matched controls were correctly separated in 89% of cases which is compatible with published diagnosis rates in the best clinical centres. This method correctly assigned 89% of patients with post-mortem confirmed diagnosis of either AD or frontotemporal lobar degeneration to their respective group. Our study leads to three conclusions: Firstly, support vector machines successfully separate patients with AD from healthy aging subjects. Secondly, they perform well in the differential diagnosis of two different forms of dementia. Thirdly, the method is robust and can be generalized across different centres. This suggests an important role for computer based diagnostic image analysis for clinical practice.

Integrated Risk Management for Improving Internal Traffic Control, Work-Zone Safety, and Mobility during Major Construction, TPF-5(081), 2012

Highway construction is among the most dangerous industries in the US. Internal traffic control design, along with how construction equipment and vehicles interact with the traveling public, have a significant effect on how safe a highway construction work zone can be. An integrated approach was taken to research work-zone safety issues and mobility, including input from many personnel, ranging from roadway designers to construction laborers and equipment operators. The research team analyzed crash data from Iowa work-zone incident reports and Occupational Safety and Health Administration data for the industry in conjunction with the results of personal interviews, a targeted work-zone ingress and egress survey, and a work-zone pilot project.

On the Analysis and Control of a Linear Synchronous Servomotor with a Flexible Load

Industry's growing need for higher productivity is placing new demands on mechanisms connected with electrical motors, because these can easily lead to vibration problems due to fast dynamics. Furthermore, the nonlinear effects caused by a motor frequently reduce servo stability, which diminishes the controller's ability to predict and maintain speed. Hence, the flexibility of a mechanism and its control has become an important area of research. The basic approach in control system engineering is to assume that the mechanism connected to a motor is rigid, so that vibrations in the tool mechanism, reel, gripper or any apparatus connected to the motor are not taken into account. This might reduce the ability of the machine system to carry out its assignment and shorten the lifetime of the equipment. Nonetheless, it is usually more important to know how the mechanism, or in other words the load on the motor, behaves. A nonlinear load control method for a permanent magnet linear synchronous motor is developed and implemented in the thesis. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired velocity reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillations. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm with its stability ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. As a reference controller for the backstepping method, a hybrid neural controller is introduced in which the linear motor itself is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller and the vibration of the associated flexible mechanism is suppressed from an outer control loop using a compensation signal from a multilayer perceptron network. To avoid the local minimum problem entailed in neural networks, the initial weights are searched for offline by means of a differential evolution algorithm. The states of a mechanical system for controllers are estimated using the Kalman filter. The theoretical results obtained from the control design are validated with the lumped mass model for a mechanism. Generalization of the mechanism allows the methods derived here to be widely implemented in machine automation. The control algorithms are first designed in a specially introduced nonlinear simulation model and then implemented in the physical linear motor using a DSP (Digital Signal Processor) application. The measurements prove that both controllers are capable of suppressing vibration, but that the backstepping method is superior to others due to its accuracy of response and stability properties.

Effect of hydrodynamics on modelling, monitoring and control of crystallization

Crystallization is a purification method used to obtain crystalline product of a certain crystal size. It is one of the oldest industrial unit processes and commonly used in modern industry due to its good purification capability from rather impure solutions with reasonably low energy consumption. However, the process is extremely challenging to model and control because it involves inhomogeneous mixing and many simultaneous phenomena such as nucleation, crystal growth and agglomeration. All these phenomena are dependent on supersaturation, i.e. the difference between actual liquid phase concentration and solubility. Homogeneous mass and heat transfer in the crystallizer would greatly simplify modelling and control of crystallization processes, such conditions are, however, not the reality, especially in industrial scale processes. Consequently, the hydrodynamics of crystallizers, i.e. the combination of mixing, feed and product removal flows, and recycling of the suspension, needs to be thoroughly investigated. Understanding of hydrodynamics is important in crystallization, especially inlargerscale equipment where uniform flow conditions are difficult to attain. It is also important to understand different size scales of mixing; micro-, meso- and macromixing. Fast processes, like nucleation and chemical reactions, are typically highly dependent on micro- and mesomixing but macromixing, which equalizes the concentrations of all the species within the entire crystallizer, cannot be disregarded. This study investigates the influence of hydrodynamics on crystallization processes. Modelling of crystallizers with the mixed suspension mixed product removal (MSMPR) theory (ideal mixing), computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and a compartmental multiblock model is compared. The importance of proper verification of CFD and multiblock models is demonstrated. In addition, the influence of different hydrodynamic conditions on reactive crystallization process control is studied. Finally, the effect of extreme local supersaturation is studied using power ultrasound to initiate nucleation. The present work shows that mixing and chemical feeding conditions clearly affect induction time and cluster formation, nucleation, growth kinetics, and agglomeration. Consequently, the properties of crystalline end products, e.g. crystal size and crystal habit, can be influenced by management of mixing and feeding conditions. Impurities may have varying impacts on crystallization processes. As an example, manganese ions were shown to replace magnesium ions in the crystal lattice of magnesium sulphate heptahydrate, increasing the crystal growth rate significantly, whereas sodium ions showed no interaction at all. Modelling of continuous crystallization based on MSMPR theory showed that the model is feasible in a small laboratoryscale crystallizer, whereas in larger pilot- and industrial-scale crystallizers hydrodynamic effects should be taken into account. For that reason, CFD and multiblock modelling are shown to be effective tools for modelling crystallization with inhomogeneous mixing. The present work shows also that selection of the measurement point, or points in the case of multiprobe systems, is crucial when process analytical technology (PAT) is used to control larger scale crystallization. The thesis concludes by describing how control of local supersaturation by highly localized ultrasound was successfully applied to induce nucleation and to control polymorphism in reactive crystallization of L-glutamic acid.

AMB system for high-speed motors using automatic commissioning

The general trend towards increasing e ciency and energy density drives the industry to high-speed technologies. Active Magnetic Bearings (AMBs) are one of the technologies that allow contactless support of a rotating body. Theoretically, there are no limitations on the rotational speed. The absence of friction, low maintenance cost, micrometer precision, and programmable sti ness have made AMBs a viable choice for highdemanding applications. Along with the advances in power electronics, such as signi cantly improved reliability and cost, AMB systems have gained a wide adoption in the industry. The AMB system is a complex, open-loop unstable system with multiple inputs and outputs. For normal operation, such a system requires a feedback control. To meet the high demands for performance and robustness, model-based control techniques should be applied. These techniques require an accurate plant model description and uncertainty estimations. The advanced control methods require more e ort at the commissioning stage. In this work, a methodology is developed for an automatic commissioning of a subcritical, rigid gas blower machine. The commissioning process includes open-loop tuning of separate parts such as sensors and actuators. The next step is to apply a system identi cation procedure to obtain a model for the controller synthesis. Finally, a robust model-based controller is synthesized and experimentally evaluated in the full operating range of the system. The commissioning procedure is developed by applying only the system components available and a priori knowledge without any additional hardware. Thus, the work provides an intelligent system with a self-diagnostics feature and an automatic commissioning.

Reflectance indices as a diagnostic tool for weed control performed by multipurpose equipment in precision agriculture

Several tools of precision agriculture have been developed for specific uses. However, this specificity may hinder the implementation of precision agriculture due to an increasing in costs and operational complexity. The use of vegetation index sensors which are traditionally developed for crop fertilization, for site-specific weed management can provide multiple utilizations of these sensors and result in the optimization of precision agriculture. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between reflectance indices of weeds obtained by the GreenSeekerTM sensor and conventional parameters used for weed interference quantification. Two experiments were conducted with soybean and corn by establishing a gradient of weed interference through the use of pre- and post-emergence herbicides. The weed quantification was evaluated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the ratio of red to near infrared (Red/NIR) obtained using the GreenSeekerTM sensor, the visual weed control, the weed dry matter, and digital photographs, which supplied information about the leaf area coverage proportions of weed and straw. The weed leaf coverage obtained using digital photography was highly associated with the NDVI (r = 0.78) and the Red/NIR (r = -0.74). The weed dry matter also positively correlated with the NDVI obtained in 1 m linear (r = 0.66). The results indicated that the GreenSeekerTM sensor originally used for crop fertilization could also be used to obtain reflectance indices in the area between rows of crops to support decision-making programs for weed control.

The demand-supply balancing process in supply chain management - case mining & metals industry equipment

The aim of this thesis is to search how to match the demand and supply effectively in industrial and project-oriented business environment. The demand-supply balancing process is searched through three different phases: the demand planning and forecasting, synchronization of demand and supply and measurement of the results. The thesis contains a single case study that has been implemented in a company called Outotec. In the case study the demand is planned and forecasted with qualitative (judgmental) forecasting method. The quantitative forecasting methods are searched further to support the demand forecast and long term planning. The sales and operations planning process is used in the synchronization of the demand and supply. The demand forecast is applied in the management of a supply chain of critical unit of elemental analyzer. Different meters on operational and strategic level are proposed for the measurement of performance.