375 resultados para Anticipation


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Cette thèse a pour objectif l’investigation du circuit des récompenses, sur les plans comportementaux et neuronaux, chez des adolescents à risque parental élevé de dépression majeure et de trouble bipolaire, en comparaison à des jeunes à risque parental peu élevé. Plus précisément, le but est d’identifier des marqueurs comportementaux et neuronaux du risque de développer une dépression majeure ou un trouble bipolaire, afin d’être en mesure de détecter et de prévenir ces troubles le plus tôt possible pour éviter, ou du moins retarder, leur émergence. Pour ce faire, nous avons réalisé deux études, présentées ici dans deux articles empiriques. Dans le premier article, le fonctionnement comportemental et neuronal du circuit des récompenses a été investigué au moyen d’une tâche d’anticipation et d’obtention de gains et de pertes monétaires, chez des adolescents à risque parental de dépression majeure (i.e., jeunes asymptomatiques dont un des parents souffre de dépression majeure), des adolescents à risque parental de trouble bipolaire (i.e., jeunes asymptomatiques dont un des parents souffre de trouble bipolaire) et des adolescents contrôles (i.e., jeunes asymptomatiques dont les deux parents sont en bonne santé mentale). Au niveau comportemental, les résultats ont révélé une meilleure performance chez les jeunes à risque de dépression majeure lorsqu’ils devaient éviter d’obtenir des pertes monétaires de magnitude variée (0,20$, 1$ ou 5$), ainsi qu’une meilleure performance chez les jeunes à risque de trouble bipolaire sur les essais impliquant d’éviter des pertes monétaires de magnitude nulle (0$). Au niveau neuronal, les jeunes à risque de dépression majeure démontraient une diminution de l’activation du cortex préfrontal dorsolatéral lors de l’anticipation de potentielles pertes monétaires de magnitude variée, tandis que les jeunes à risque de trouble bipolaire démontraient une diminution de l’activation du cortex préfrontal dorsolatéral lors de l’anticipation de potentielles pertes monétaires de magnitude nulle. De plus, les jeunes à risque de dépression majeure tendaient à démontrer une augmentation de l’activité du cortex orbitofrontal durant l’évitement réussi de pertes monétaires, tandis que les jeunes à risque de trouble bipolaire tendaient à démontrer une augmentation de l’activité du cortex orbitofrontal lors de l’obtention de pertes monétaires. Dans le deuxième article, l’intégrité structurelle des régions fronto-limbiques a été investiguée, au moyen de mesures du volume, de l’épaisseur corticale et de la superficie corticale. Les résultats ont mis en évidence, chez les jeunes à risque de trouble bipolaire, un volume plus élevé du cortex préfrontal dorsolatéral, par rapport aux jeunes à risque de dépression majeure et contrôles. De plus, les jeunes à risque de trouble bipolaire présentaient un volume plus élevé du cortex cingulaire postérieur, en comparaison aux jeunes à risque de dépression majeure. Enfin, une diminution de l’épaisseur corticale du cortex orbitofrontal et du gyrus frontal moyen a été observée chez les adolescents à risque de trouble bipolaire, en comparaison au groupe contrôle. L’ensemble de ces résultats démontre ainsi l’existence de particularités comportementales et d’altérations neuronales sur les plans fonctionnel et structurel, chez des jeunes à risque élevé de troubles de l’humeur, et ce, avant même l’émergence des premiers symptômes thymiques. Plus particulièrement, ces caractéristiques pourraient constituer des marqueurs du risque de développer un trouble de l’humeur. Par conséquent, ces marqueurs pourraient aider à mieux identifier les jeunes qui sont le plus à risque de développer un trouble de l’humeur, et ainsi permettre la mise en place précoce de stratégies préventives adaptées, afin d’éviter des trajectoires développementales psychopathologiques.

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Cette thèse est une collection de trois articles en macroéconomie et finances publiques. Elle développe des modèles d'Equilibre Général Dynamique et Stochastique pour analyser les implications macroéconomiques des politiques d'imposition des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Le premier chapitre analyse les mécanismes de transmission à l'économie, des effets d'un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Dans une économie constituée d'un gouvernement, d'une firme représentative et d'un ménage représentatif, j'élabore un théorème de l'équivalence ricardienne avec l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises. Plus particulièrement, j'établis que si les marchés financiers sont parfaits, un ré-échelonnement de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises qui ne change pas la valeur présente de l'impôt total auquel l'entreprise est assujettie sur toute sa durée de vie n'a aucun effet réel sur l'économie si l'état utilise un impôt forfaitaire. Ensuite, en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits, je montre qu'une une baisse temporaire de l'impôt forfaitaire sur le profit des entreprises stimule l'investissement parce qu'il réduit temporairement le coût marginal de l'investissement. Enfin, mes résultats indiquent que si l'impôt est proportionnel au profit des entreprises, l'anticipation de taxes élevées dans le futur réduit le rendement espéré de l'investissement et atténue la stimulation de l'investissement engendrée par la réduction d'impôt. Le deuxième chapitre est écrit en collaboration avec Rui Castro. Dans cet article, nous avons quantifié les effets sur les décisions individuelles d'investis-sement et de production des entreprises ainsi que sur les agrégats macroéconomiques, d'une baisse temporaire de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises en présence de marchés financiers imparfaits. Dans un modèle où les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs de productivité idiosyncratiques, nous avons d'abord établi que le rationnement de crédit affecte plus les petites (jeunes) entreprises que les grandes entreprises. Pour des entreprises de même taille, les entreprises les plus productives sont celles qui souffrent le plus du manque de liquidité résultant des imperfections du marché financier. Ensuite, nous montré que pour une baisse de 1 dollar du revenu de l'impôt, l'investissement et la production augmentent respectivement de 26 et 3,5 centimes. L'effet cumulatif indique une augmentation de l'investissement et de la production agrégés respectivement de 4,6 et 7,2 centimes. Au niveau individuel, nos résultats indiquent que la politique stimule l'investissement des petites entreprises, initialement en manque de liquidité, alors qu'elle réduit l'investissement des grandes entreprises, initialement non contraintes. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'analyse des effets de la réforme de l'imposition des revenus d'entreprise proposée par le Trésor américain en 1992. La proposition de réforme recommande l'élimination des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital et l'imposition d'une seule taxe sur le revenu des entreprises. Pour ce faire, j'ai eu recours à un modèle dynamique stochastique d'équilibre général avec marchés financiers imparfaits dans lequel les entreprises sont sujettes à des chocs idiosyncratiques de productivité. Les résultats indiquent que l'abolition des impôts sur les dividendes et les gains en capital réduisent les distorsions dans les choix d'investissement des entreprises, stimule l'investissement et entraîne une meilleure allocation du capital. Mais pour être financièrement soutenable, la réforme nécessite un relèvement du taux de l'impôt sur le profit des entreprises de 34\% à 42\%. Cette hausse du taux d'imposition décourage l'accumulation du capital. En somme, la réforme engendre une baisse de l'accumulation du capital et de la production respectivement de 8\% et 1\%. Néanmoins, elle améliore l'allocation du capital de 20\%, engendrant des gains de productivité de 1.41\% et une modeste augmentation du bien être des consommateurs.

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The effects of unconditional stimulus (US) valence (aversive electro-tactile stimulus vs. nonaversive imperative stimulus of a RT task) and conditioning paradigm (delay vs. trace) on affective learning as indexed by verbal ratings of conditional stimulus (CS) pleasantness and blink startle modulation and on relational learning as indexed by electrodermal responses were investigated. Affective learning was not affected by the conditioning paradigm; however, electrodermal responses and blink latency shortening indicated delayed learning in the trace procedure. Changes in rated CS pleasantness were found with the aversive US, but not with the non-aversive US. Differential conditioning as indexed by electrodermal responses and startle modulation was found regardless of US valence. The finding of significant differential blink modulation and electrodermal responding in the absence of a change in rated CS pleasantness as a result of conditioning with a non-aversive US was replicated in a second experiment. These results seem to indicate that startle modulation during conditioning is mediated by the arousal level of the anticipated US, rather than by the valence of the CS. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

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Three-, 4- and 5-year-old children were asked to report something that they did do yesterday and something that they were going to do tomorrow. They were also asked to recall events that had not occurred yesterday, and predict events that would not occur tomorrow. In two studies these simple questions revealed striking age differences in the ability to report personal events from the past and the future. Only a minority of 3-year-olds but a majority of the older children were able to appropriately answer these questions. These findings substantiate the proposal that the ability to recall past events and the ability to predict future events (i.e., mental time travel), emerge in tandem between the ages of 3 and 5 years. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Mechanisms that produce behavior which increase future survival chances provide an adaptive advantage. The flexibility of human behavior is at least partly the result of one such mechanism, our ability to travel mentally in time and entertain potential future scenarios. We can study mental time travel in children using language. Current results suggest that key developments occur between the ages of three to five. However, linguistic performance can be misleading as language itself is developing. We therefore advocate the use of methodologies that focus on future-oriented action. Mental time travel required profound changes in humans' motivational system, so that current behavior could be directed to secure not just present, but individually anticipated future needs. Such behavior should be distinguishable from behavior based on current drives, or on other mechanisms. We propose an experimental paradigm that provides subjects with an opportunity to act now to satisfy a need not currently experienced. This approach may be used to assess mental time travel in nonhuman animals. We conclude by describing a preliminary study employing an adaptation of this paradigm for children. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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In reaction time (RT) tasks, presentation of a startling acoustic stimulus (SAS) together with a visual imperative stimulus can dramatically reduce RT while leaving response execution unchanged. It has been suggested that a prepared motor response program is triggered early by the SAS but is not otherwise affected. Movements aimed at intercepting moving targets are usually considered to be similarly governed by a prepared program. This program is triggered when visual stimulus information about the time to arrival of the moving target reaches a specific criterion. We investigated whether a SAS could also trigger such a movement. Human experimental participants were trained to hit moving targets with movements of a specific duration. This permitted an estimate of when movement would begin (expected onset time). Startling and sub-startle threshold acoustic probe stimuli were delivered unexpectedly among control trials: 65, 85, 115 and 135 ms prior to expected onset (10:1 ratio of control to probe trials). Results showed that startling probe stimuli at 85 and 115 ms produced early response onsets but not those at 65 or 135 ms. Sub-threshold stimuli at 115 and 135 ms also produced early onsets. Startle probes led to an increased vigor in the response, but sub-threshold probes had no detectable effects. These data can be explained by a simple model in which preparatory, response-related activation builds up in the circuits responsible for generating motor commands in anticipation of the GO command. If early triggering by the acoustic probes is the mechanism underlying the findings, then the data support the hypothesis that rapid interceptions are governed by a motor program. © 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of IBRO.

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The eye-blink startle reflex can be modulated by attentional and emotional processes. The reflex is facilitated during stimuli that engage attention. A linear pattern of emotional modulation has also been consistently demonstrated: the reflex is facilitated during unpleasant stimuli and attenuated during pleasant stimuli. However, during anticipation of pleasant or unpleasant stimuli it is unclear whether emotion or attention drives startle reflex modulation. This study used a differential learning procedure to investigate whether startle modulation during anticipation of a salient stimulus reflected emotional or attentional processes. In acquisition, a CS+ was paired with a pleasant or unpleasant US and a CS- was presented alone. In extinction, blink startle magnitude was measured during CS+ and CS-. Post-acquisition valence ratings and affective priming showed that CS+ had acquired the same affective value as the pleasant or unpleasant US with which it was paired. No differences in modulation of blink startle reflexes during pleasant CS+ and unpleasant CS+ were found throughout extinction. Blink startle facilitation occurred during CS+ but not CS- across the first third of extinction. Thus, attentional rather than emotional processes appeared to facilitate blink startle during anticipation of salient stimuli.

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Background The somatosensory cortex has been inconsistently activated in pain studies and the functional properties of subregions within this cortical area are poorly understood. To address this we used magnetoencephalography (MEG), a brain imaging technique capable of recording changes in cortical neural activity in real-time, to investigate the functional properties of the somatosensory cortex during different phases of the visceral pain experience. Methods In eight participants (4 male), 151-channel whole cortex MEG was used to detect cortical neural activity during 25 trials lasting 20 seconds each. Each trial comprised four separate periods of 5 seconds in duration. During each of the periods, different visual cues were presented, indicating that period 1=rest, period 2=anticipation, period 3=pain and period 4=post pain. During period 3, participants received painful oesophageal balloon distensions (four at 1 Hz). Regions of cortical activity were identified using Synthetic Aperture Magnetometry (SAM) and by the placement of virtual electrodes in regions of interest within the somatosensory cortex, time-frequency wavelet plots were generated. Results SAM analysis revealed significant activation with the primary (S1) and secondary (S2) somatosensory cortices. The time-frequency wavelet spectrograms showed that activation in S1 increased during the anticipation phase and continued during the presentation of the stimulus. In S2, activation was tightly time and phase-locked to the stimulus within the pain period. Activations in both regions predominantly occurred within the 10–15 Hz and 20–30 Hz frequency bandwidths. Discussion These data are consistent with the role of S1 and S2 in the sensory discriminatory aspects of pain processing. Activation of S1 during anticipation and then pain may be linked to its proposed role in attentional as well as sensory processing. The stimulus-related phasic activity seen in S2 demonstrates that this region predominantly encodes information pertaining to the nature and intensity of the stimulus.

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We investigate the integration of the European peripheral financial markets with Germany, France, and the UK using a combination of tests for structural breaks and return correlations derived from several multivariate stochastic volatility models. Our findings suggest that financial integration intensified in anticipation of the Euro, further strengthened by the EMU inception, and amplified in response to the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Hence, no evidence is found of decoupling of the equity markets in more troubled European countries from the core. Interestingly, the UK, despite staying outside the EMU, is not worse integrated with the GIPSI than Germany or France. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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Recent and potential changes in technology have resulted in the anticipation of increases in the frequency of job changes. This has led manpower policy makers to investigate the feasibility of incorporating the employment skills of job groups in the general prediction of future job learning and performance with a view to the establishment of "job families" within which transfer might be considered reciprocally high. A structured job analysis instrument (the Position Analysis Questionnaire) is evaluated in terms of two distinct sets of scores; job dimensions and synthetically established attribute/trait profiles. Studies demonstrate that estimates of a job's structure/dimensions and requisite human attributes can be reliably established. Three alternative techniques of statistically assembling profiles of the requisite human attributes for jobs are found to have differential levels of reliability and differential degrees of validity in their estimation of the "actual" ability requirements of jobs. The utility of these two sets of job descriptors to serve as representations of the cognitive structure similarity of job groups is investigated in a study which simulates a job transfer situation. The central role of the index of similarity used to assess the relationship between "target" and "present" job is demonstrated. The relative extents to which job structure similarity and job attribute similariity are associated with positive transfer are investigated. The studies demonstrate that the dimensions of jobs, and more fruitfully their requisite human attributes can serve as bases to predict job transfer learning and performance. The nature of the index of similarity used to optimally formulate predictions of transfer is such that networks of jobs might be establishable to which current job incumbents could be expected to transfer positively. The derivation of "job families" with anticipated reciprocal transfer consequences is considered to be less appropriate.

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Humans are especially good at taking another's perspective-representing what others might be thinking or experiencing. This "mentalizing" capacity is apparent in everyday human interactions and conversations. We investigated its neural basis using magnetoencephalography. We focused on whether mentalizing was engaged spontaneously and routinely to understand an utterance's meaning or largely on-demand, to restore "common ground" when expectations were violated. Participants conversed with 1 of 2 confederate speakers and established tacit agreements about objects' names. In a subsequent "test" phase, some of these agreements were violated by either the same or a different speaker. Our analysis of the neural processing of test phase utterances revealed recruitment of neural circuits associated with language (temporal cortex), episodic memory (e.g., medial temporal lobe), and mentalizing (temporo-parietal junction and ventromedial prefrontal cortex). Theta oscillations (3-7 Hz) were modulated most prominently, and we observed phase coupling between functionally distinct neural circuits. The episodic memory and language circuits were recruited in anticipation of upcoming referring expressions, suggesting that context-sensitive predictions were spontaneously generated. In contrast, the mentalizing areas were recruited on-demand, as a means for detecting and resolving perceived pragmatic anomalies, with little evidence they were activated to make partner-specific predictions about upcoming linguistic utterances.

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This time of year we look back at the year that has passed and make plans for the next year. I like to reflect on things that I have learnt and people that I have met, especially those who facilitated that learning. In 2009 I went to various conferences, The BCLA conference in Manchester, The Romanian Optical Society meeting in Brasov, Transylvania (where the university is actually on Vlad Tepes Street), The European Council for Optometry and Optics (ECOO) in Brno, Czech Republic, The American Academy of Optometry (AAO) in Orlando USA, The International Association of Contact Lens Educators (IACLE) meeting in Tianjin China and finally The Vereinigung Deutscher Contactlinsen-Spezialisten (VDCO) meeting in Jena. All were interesting places and thoroughly all were enjoyable conferences with their own highlights but I wanted to focus on Jena and one person I met there and his inspirational search for knowledge and the contributions he made in the field of contact lenses. Jena itself is a fascinating place and should be on the ‘must visit’ list of anyone involved in eye care. It is the birth place of Carl Zeiss of course and where he started his company. It is also the birth place of Ernst Abbe (physicist and optometrist and expert lens maker), and Otto Schott (chemist and technologist who made high quality glass. There are many road signs bearing witness to these famous pioneers. The optical museum is worth spending a few hours looking around too. I was invited to speak at the VDCO at the kind invitation from colleagues at the Jena School of Optometry, Professor Wolfgang Sickenberger and Professor Sebastian Marx. At this meeting I met 87-year-old Willi KAUE who was being awarded the Adolf Wilhelm Müller-Welt prize by the VDCO for contribution to contact lenses over his 60-year career. At the age of 15 Willi Kaue took up an apprenticeship to become an Optician in Germany in 1937. At this time he first heard about the scleral glass lenses made by the Carl Zeiss Company in Jena. This started his lifelong fascination which was to become his passion but not yet his career. During the war he was enlisted into military service but immediately after was back to his former career. In 1950 Willi corrected his own 3.5 dioptres of myopia with a plastic scleral lens. His fascination strengthened as for the first time he himself could experience a wider field of view than his spectacles gave him, less aberrations and less retinal minification. He also appreciated the fact that contact lenses did not cause pressure on the nose or ears and did not slide down his nose plus remained optically centred with his eye movements. He decided that form now on he would make fitting contact lenses his career. He travelled to London to learn more about contact lenses and how to fit them but initially did not find many willing teachers and to start with became largely self-taught. He wanted to know how to make scleral lenses. So far he only knew that pulverized polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) was pressed and moulded. In 1951 he met Berlin optician Otto Marzock. He made his only scleral lenses from using military PMMA windshields. His process involved lathe cutting the lenses and resulted in lenses that were thinner than moulded ones. Willi developed a manufacturing method, using a rotary diamond drill, starting form the outer edge and towards the centre at a constant cut speed. This enabled him to make more reproducible lenses and in less time. His enthusiasm in the field was clear from the travels he made in the pursuit of advancement - travelling around Europe, South America, North America and Asia. In 1963 he visited George Nissel in Hemel Hempstead, England. Constantly thriving towards innovations Willi came across the new Naturalens from the USA made from HEMA at a congress in Marseille in 1969. Amongst his contributions to the field, was his own technique of fitting ocular prosthetics, using an alginate impression of the orbit. I was fortunate enough to have dinner with Willi Kaue and learnt more about his fascinating career through the patient interpreting skills of Hilmar Bussacker (the 2008 winner of the same award and the 2007 winner of the European Federation of the Contact Lens and IOL Industries Award). I look forward to 2010 with eager anticipation as to what I may learn and who I might meet!!! Copyright © 2009 British Contact Lens Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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When visual sensor networks are composed of cameras which can adjust the zoom factor of their own lens, one must determine the optimal zoom levels for the cameras, for a given task. This gives rise to an important trade-off between the overlap of the different cameras’ fields of view, providing redundancy, and image quality. In an object tracking task, having multiple cameras observe the same area allows for quicker recovery, when a camera fails. In contrast having narrow zooms allow for a higher pixel count on regions of interest, leading to increased tracking confidence. In this paper we propose an approach for the self-organisation of redundancy in a distributed visual sensor network, based on decentralised multi-objective online learning using only local information to approximate the global state. We explore the impact of different zoom levels on these trade-offs, when tasking omnidirectional cameras, having perfect 360-degree view, with keeping track of a varying number of moving objects. We further show how employing decentralised reinforcement learning enables zoom configurations to be achieved dynamically at runtime according to an operator’s preference for maximising either the proportion of objects tracked, confidence associated with tracking, or redundancy in expectation of camera failure. We show that explicitly taking account of the level of overlap, even based only on local knowledge, improves resilience when cameras fail. Our results illustrate the trade-off between maintaining high confidence and object coverage, and maintaining redundancy, in anticipation of future failure. Our approach provides a fully tunable decentralised method for the self-organisation of redundancy in a changing environment, according to an operator’s preferences.