Recruitment as an evolving random process of aggregation and mortality

The dynamics of the survival of recruiting fish are analyzed as evolving random processes of aggregation and mortality. The analyses draw on recent advances in the physics of complex networks and, in particular, the scale-free degree distribution arising from growing random networks with preferential attachment of links to nodes. In this study simulations were conducted in which recruiting fish 1) were subjected to mortality by using alternative mortality encounter models and 2) aggregated according to random encounters (two schools randomly encountering one another join into a single school) or preferential attachment (the probability of a successful aggregation of two schools is proportional to the school sizes). The simulations started from either a “disaggregated” (all schools comprised a single fish) or an aggregated initial condition. Results showed the transition of the school-size distribution with preferential attachment evolving toward a scale-free school size distribution, whereas random attachment evolved toward an exponential distribution. Preferential attachment strategies performed better than random attachment strategies in terms of recruitment survival at time when mortality encounters were weighted toward schools rather than to individual fish. Mathematical models were developed whose solutions (either analytic or numerical) mimicked the simulation results. The resulting models included both Beverton-Holt and Ricker-like recruitment, which predict recruitment as a function of initial mean school size as well as initial stock size. Results suggest that school-size distributions during recruitment may provide information on recruitment processes. The models also provide a template for expanding both theoretical and empirical recruitment research.

Exploring the process of whole system design

This paper explores the adoption of a whole system approach to a more sustainable and innovative design. A case study methodology was utilised to gain improved understanding of whole system design and those factors that substantially influence its success. The paper presents a framework of those factors including the requirement for trans-disciplinary skills, the dynamics of a flattened hierarchy and the need to identify relationships between parts of the system to ultimately optimise the whole. Knowing the factors that influence the process of whole system design provides designers with the knowledge necessary to more effectively work within, manage and facilitate that process. This paper uses anecdotes taken from operational cases, across design contexts, to demonstrate those factors. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gaussian Process training with input noise

In standard Gaussian Process regression input locations are assumed to be noise free. We present a simple yet effective GP model for training on input points corrupted by i.i.d. Gaussian noise. To make computations tractable we use a local linear expansion about each input point. This allows the input noise to be recast as output noise proportional to the squared gradient of the GP posterior mean. The input noise variances are inferred from the data as extra hyperparameters. They are trained alongside other hyperparameters by the usual method of maximisation of the marginal likelihood. Training uses an iterative scheme, which alternates between optimising the hyperparameters and calculating the posterior gradient. Analytic predictive moments can then be found for Gaussian distributed test points. We compare our model to others over a range of different regression problems and show that it improves over current methods.

Gaussian Process Vine Copulas for Multivariate Dependence

Copulas allow to learn marginal distributions separately from the multivariate dependence structure (copula) that links them together into a density function. Vine factorizations ease the learning of high-dimensional copulas by constructing a hierarchy of conditional bivariate copulas. However, to simplify inference, it is common to assume that each of these conditional bivariate copulas is independent from its conditioning variables. In this paper, we relax this assumption by discovering the latent functions that specify the shape of a conditional copula given its conditioning variables We learn these functions by following a Bayesian approach based on sparse Gaussian processes with expectation propagation for scalable, approximate inference. Experiments on real-world datasets show that, when modeling all conditional dependencies, we obtain better estimates of the underlying copula of the data.

processline: visualizing time-series data in process industry

In modern process industry, it is often difficult to analyze a manufacture process due to its umerous time-series data. Analysts wish to not only interpret the evolution of data over time in a working procedure, but also examine the changes in the whole production process through time. To meet such analytic requirements, we have developed ProcessLine, an interactive visualization tool for a large amount of time-series data in process industry. The data are displayed in a fisheye timeline. ProcessLine provides good overviews for the whole production process and details for the focused working procedure. A preliminary user study using beer industry production data has shown that the tool is effective.

Analysis for temperature and pressure fields in process of hydrate dissociation by depressurization

An improved axisymmetric mathematic modeling is proposed for the process of hydrate dissociation by depressurization around vertical well. To reckon in the effect of latent heat of gas hydrate at the decomposition front, the energy balance equation is employed. The semi-analytic solutions for temperature and pressure fields are obtained by using Boltzmann-transformation. The location of decomposition front is determined by solving initial value problem for system of ordinary differential equations. The distributions of pressure and temperature along horizontal radiate in the reservoir are calculated. The numeric results indicate that the moving speed of decomposition front is sensitively dependent on the well pressure and the sediment permeability. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Intergenerational transmission of conflict-related trauma in Northern Ireland: A behaviour analytic approach

Intergenerational transmission of trauma describes the impact that traumatic events experienced by one generation have for the subsequent generation. In Northern Ireland, violent conflict raged between 1969 and 1998, when a peace process begun. This study explored to what extent (if any) parents’ experiences of the conflict influenced how children perceived life in this society. Parents completed a questionnaire, and their children drew 2 pictures, depicting Northern Ireland now and before they were born. Children’s behaviors and awareness of the conflict were influenced by their parents’ experiences and narratives, their age, gender, and school. Parental narrative about the violence was influenced by individual learning history, the child’s age and gender, and present circumstances. A behavior analytic approach is offered.

The incidents of housing policies in the process of nesting the urban space (Buenos Aires, 1870-1999)

This article describes the housing policies displayed historically in B.A. that affected the processes of configuration and of giving hierarchy to the urban space. Since the process of modernization of B.A., at the end of the XIXth century, housing measures, urbanistic projects and political decisions have influenced the building of the city and the space distribution of their inhabitants: in this way, they have integrated some people and excluded others. No wonder, that, historically, popular sectors have established themselves in the South of the city (and in outskirt villages). These zones have been disregarded by the state, which has invested less in these areas. We will see how the connection between state housing policies and the population redistribution in the city, confirms the persistence of a strong process of urban and residential segregation that tends to expel the inhabitants of popular sectors and to attract the ones of the middle-class and high class sectors.

User-intimate requirements hierarchy resolution framework (UI-REF)

Abstract. This paper presents the User-Intimate Requirements Hierarchy Resolution Framework (UI-REF) based on earlier work (Badii 1997-2008) to optimise the requirements engineering process particularly to support userintimate interactive systems co-design. The stages of the UI- EF framework for requirements resolution-and-prioritisation are described. UI-REF has been established to ensure that the most-deeply-valued needs of the majority of stakeholders are elicited and ranked, and the root rationale for requirements evolution is trace-able and contextualised so as to help resolve stakeholder conflicts. UI-REF supports the dynamically evolving requirements of the users in the context of digital economy as under-pinned by online service provisioning. Requirements prioritisation in UI-REF is fully resolved while a promotion path for lower priority requirements is delineated so as to ensure that as the requirements evolve so will their resolution and prioritisation.

Novel developments in process optimisation using predictive control

In industrial practice, constrained steady state optimisation and predictive control are separate, albeit closely related functions within the control hierarchy. This paper presents a method which integrates predictive control with on-line optimisation with economic objectives. A receding horizon optimal control problem is formulated using linear state space models. This optimal control problem is very similar to the one presented in many predictive control formulations, but the main difference is that it includes in its formulation a general steady state objective depending on the magnitudes of manipulated and measured output variables. This steady state objective may include the standard quadratic regulatory objective, together with economic objectives which are often linear. Assuming that the system settles to a steady state operating point under receding horizon control, conditions are given for the satisfaction of the necessary optimality conditions of the steady-state optimisation problem. The method is based on adaptive linear state space models, which are obtained by using on-line identification techniques. The use of model adaptation is justified from a theoretical standpoint and its beneficial effects are shown in simulations. The method is tested with simulations of an industrial distillation column and a system of chemical reactors.

Forecasting VaR using analytic higher moments for GARCH processes

It is widely accepted that some of the most accurate Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates are based on an appropriately specified GARCH process. But when the forecast horizon is greater than the frequency of the GARCH model, such predictions have typically required time-consuming simulations of the aggregated returns distributions. This paper shows that fast, quasi-analytic GARCH VaR calculations can be based on new formulae for the first four moments of aggregated GARCH returns. Our extensive empirical study compares the Cornish–Fisher expansion with the Johnson SU distribution for fitting distributions to analytic moments of normal and Student t, symmetric and asymmetric (GJR) GARCH processes to returns data on different financial assets, for the purpose of deriving accurate GARCH VaR forecasts over multiple horizons and significance levels.

Letters in cognitive analytic therapy: The patient's experience

Patient perspectives on how therapeutic letters contributed to their experience of cognitive analytic therapy (CAT) were investigated. Eight patients took part in semistructured interviews. A grounded, thematic analysis of their accounts suggested four general processes. First, letters offered a tangible, lasting framework for the assimilation of a new perspective about themselves and their relationships and facilitated coping with a complex range of emotions and risks this awareness required. Second, they demonstrated therapists’ commitment to patients’ growth. Third, they helped to teach participants about the therapy process as an example of an interpersonal exchange. Fourth, they helped participants consider how they wished to share personal information. These data offer a more complex understanding of this standard CAT intervention. Although some findings are consistent with CAT theory, the range of emotional dilemmas associated with letters has not received specific attention. Clinical implications are discussed.

Understanding educational process in leadership development

This thesis is a case study of educational process in the leadership development program of the Australian Defence Force Academy. The intention is to determine the relative emphasis in educational process on the conventional command and managerial compliance (Type A) style and the emergent contingent and creative (Type B) style of leadership. The Type A style is theorised as emphasizing hierarchy and control, whereas the emphasis in a Type B style is on adaptive and entrepreneurial behaviour. This study looks at the learning process in a cultural and structural context rather than focus on curriculum and instructional design. Research in this wider context is intended to enable development processes to successfully bridge a gap between theory and practice, implicit in studies that identify theories 'in-operation' as different from the theories 'espoused' (Argyris 1992, Savage 1996). In terms of espoused and in-use theory, the study seeks to produce a valid and reliable result to the question: what is the relative emphasis on the two leadership styles in the operation of the three educational mechanisms of curriculum, pedagogy (teaching practice) and assessment? The quantitative analysis of results (n = 114) draws attention to both leadership styles in terms of two and three-way relationships of style, cadet or work group and service type. The data shows that both Type A and Type B leadership styles are evident in the general conversation of the organisation. This trend is present as espoused theory in the curriculum of the Defence Academy. However, the data also confirm a clear and strong emphasis towards command and managerial compliance as theory-in-use, particularly by cadets. This emphasis is noticeably evident in the teaching and assessment practice of the Defence Academy. Other research outcomes include the observation that: Contextually, while studies show it is difficult to isolate skills from their cultural and biographical context (Watkins, 1991:15), this study suggests that it is equally difficult to isolate skills development from this context. There is a strong task or instrumental link identified by cadet responses in terms of content and development process at the Defence Academy, in contrast to the wider developmental emphasis in general literature and senior officer interviews. There is a lack of awareness of teaching strategies and development activity consistent with espoused Type B leadership theory and curriculum content. This gap is compounded by the use in the Defence Academy of personnel without teaching expertise or suitable developmental experience. The socialisation of cadets into the military workplace is the primary purpose of training. This purpose appears taken for granted by all concerned - staff, cadets and senior officers. Defence Academy development processes appear to be faced with a dilemma. Arguably, training and learning from experience are limited approaches to development. Training, which involves learning by replication, and learning from experience, which is largely imitative, are both of little use when people are faced with novel and ambiguous situations. This study suggests that in order to support the development of capabilities that go beyond training based competence a learning and development approach is needed. This more expansive approach requires educational planners to consider the cultural and social context that can inadvertently promote the status quo in practice over espoused outcomes.

Hierarchy and anarchy in quark mass matrices, or can hierarchy tolerate anarchy?

The consequences of adding random perturbations (anarchy) to a baseline hierarchical model of quark masses and mixings are explored. Even small perturbations of the order of 5% of the smallest non-zero element can already give deviations significantly affecting parameters of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrix, so any process generating the anarchy should in general be limited to this order of magnitude. The regularities of quark masses and mixings thus appear to be far from a generic feature of randomness in the mass matrices, and more likely indicate an underlying order. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier B.V. B.V.

A hierarchy of adaptive (X)over-bar control charts

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)