Reproducibility of South American precipitation due to subtropical South Atlantic SSTs

This work investigates the eproducibility of precipitation simulated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by subtropical South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This represents an important test of the model prior to investigating the impact of SSTs on regional climate. A five-member ensemble run was performed using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3). The CCM3 was forced by observed monthly SST over the South Atlantic from 20 to 60 S. The SST dataset used is from the Hadley Centre covering the period of September 1949-October 2001; this covers more than 50 yr of simulation. A statistical technique is used to determine the reproducibility in the CCM3 runs and to assess potential predictability in precipitation. Empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reconstruct the ensemble using the most reproducible forced modes in order to separate the atmospheric response to local SST forcing from its internal variability. Results for reproducibility show a seasonal dependence, with higher values during austral autumn and spring. The spatial distribution of reproducibility shows that the tropical atmosphere is dominated by the underlying SSTs while variations in the subtropical-extratropical regions are primarily driven by internal variability. As such, changes in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) region are mainly dominated by internal atmospheric variability while the ITCZ has greater external dependence, making it more predictable. The reproducibility distribution reveals increased values after the reconstruction of the ensemble.

Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations (FORMS) for the western South Atlantic: Southeastern Brazil region

The multi-scale synoptic circulation system in the southeastern Brazil (SEBRA) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or ""features,"" are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the southward-flowing Brazil Current (BC), the eddies off Cabo Sao Tome (CST - 22 degrees S) and off Cabo Frio (CF - 23 degrees S), and the upwelling region off CF and CST. Their synoptic water-mass (T-S) structures are characterized and parameterized to develop temperature-salinity (T-S) feature models. Following [Gangopadhyay, A., Robinson, A.R., Haley, PJ., Leslie, W.J., Lozano, C.j., Bisagni, J., Yu, Z., 2003. Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (forms) in the gulf of maine and georges bank. Cont. Shelf Res. 23 (3-4), 317-353] methodology, a synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in this region is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and objectively analyzed with available background climatology in the deep region. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). A few first applications of this methodology are presented in this paper. These include the BC meandering, the BC-eddy interaction and the meander-eddy-upwelling system (MEUS) simulations. Preliminary validation results include realistic wave-growth and eddy formation and sustained upwelling. Our future plan includes the application of these feature models with satellite, in-situ data and advanced data-assimilation schemes for nowcasting and forecasting the SEBRA region. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Height variability from the MIROC - IPCC model for the 20th century compared to that of the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter

Planetary waves are key to large-scale dynamical adjustment in the global ocean as they transfer energy from the east to the west side of oceanic basins; they connect the forcing in the ocean interior with the variability at its boundaries: and they change the local heat content, thus coupling oceanic, atmospheric, and biological processes. Planetary waves, mostly of the first baroclinic mode, are observed as distinctive patterns in global time series of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and heat storage. The goal of this study is to compare and validate large-scale SSHA signals from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) with TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter observations. The last decade of the models` time series is selected for comparison with the altimeter data. The wave patterns are separated from the meso- and large-scale SSHA signals by digital filters calibrated to select the same spectral bands in both model and altimeter data. The band-wise comparison allows for an assessment of the model skill to simulate the dynamical components of the observed wave field. Comparisons regarding both the seasonal cycle and the Rossby wave Held differ significantly among basins. When carried within the same basin, differences can occur between equal latitudes in opposite hemispheres. Furthermore, at some latitudes the MIROC reproduces biannual, annual and semiannual planetary waves with phase speeds and average amplitudes similar to those observed by the altimeter, but with significant differences in phase. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A general threshold stress hybrid hazard model for lifetime data

In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.

Application of an active attachment model as a high-throughput demineralization biofilm model

Objectives: To investigate the potential of an active attachment biofilm model as a highthroughput demineralization biofilm model for the evaluation of caries-preventive agents. Methods: Streptococcus mutans UA159 biofilms were grown on bovine dentine discs in a highthroughput active attachment model. Biofilms were first formed in a medium with high buffer capacity for 24 h and then subjected to various photodynamic therapies (PACT) using the combination of Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs, Biotable (R)) and Photogem (R). Viability of the biofilms was evaluated by plate counts. To investigate treatment effects on dentine lesion formation, the treated biofilms were grown in a medium with low buffer capacity for an additional 24 h. Integrated mineral loss (IML) and lesion depth (LD) were assessed by transversal microradiography. Calcium release in the biofilm medium was measured by atomic absorption spectroscopy. Results: Compared to the water treated control group, significant reduction in viability of S. mutans biofilms was observed when the combination of LEDs and Photogem (R) was applied. LEDs or Photogem (R) only did not result in biofilm viability changes. Similar outcomes were also found for dentine lesion formation. Significant lower IML and LD values were only found in the group subjected to the combined treatment of LEDs and Photogem (R). There was a good correlation between the calcium release data and the IML or LD values. Conclusions: The high-throughput active attachment biofilm model is applicable for evaluating novel caries-preventive agents on both biofilm and demineralization inhibition. PACT had a killing effect on 24 h S. mutans biofilms and could inhibit the demineralization process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coupling between upper ocean layer variability and size-fractionated phytoplankton in a non-nutrient-limited environment

[EN] We describe the coupling between upper ocean layer variability and size-fractionated phytoplankton distribution in the non-nutrient-limited Bransfield Strait region (BS) of Antarctica. For this purpose we use hydrographic and size-fractionated chlorophyll a data from a transect that crossed 2 fronts and an eddy, together with data from 3 stations located in a deeply mixed region, the Antarctic Sound (AS). In the BS transect, small phytoplankton (<20 μm equivalent spherical diameter [ESD]) accounted for 80% of total chl a and their distribution appeared to be linked to cross-frontal variability. On the deepening upper mixed layer (UML) sides of both fronts we observed a deep subducting column-like structure of small phytoplankton biomass. On the shoaling UML sides of both fronts, where there were signs of restratification, we observed a local shallow maximum of small phytoplankton biomass. We propose that this observed phytoplankton distribution may be a response to the development of frontal vertical circulation cells. In the deep, turbulent environment of the AS, larger phytoplankton (>20 μm ESD) accounted for 80% of total chl a. The proportion of large phytoplankton increases as the depth of the upper mixed layer (ZUML), and the corresponding rate of vertical mixing, increases. We hypothesize that this change in phytoplankton composition with varying ZUML is related to the competition for light, and results from modification of the light regime caused by vertical mixing.

Nonlinear/electromagnetic co-simulation of microwaves and millimeter-waves links

The Ph.D. thesis describes the simulations of different microwave links from the transmitter to the receiver intermediate-frequency ports, by means of a rigorous circuit-level nonlinear analysis approach coupled with the electromagnetic characterization of the transmitter and receiver front ends. This includes a full electromagnetic computation of the radiated far field which is used to establish the connection between transmitter and receiver. Digitally modulated radio-frequency drive is treated by a modulation-oriented harmonic-balance method based on Krylov-subspace model-order reduction to allow the handling of large-size front ends. Different examples of links have been presented: an End-to-End link simulated by making use of an artificial neural network model; the latter allows a fast computation of the link itself when driven by long sequences of the order of millions of samples. In this way a meaningful evaluation of such link performance aspects as the bit error rate becomes possible at the circuit level. Subsequently, a work focused on the co-simulation an entire link including a realistic simulation of the radio channel has been presented. The channel has been characterized by means of a deterministic approach, such as Ray Tracing technique. Then, a 2x2 multiple-input multiple-output antenna link has been simulated; in this work near-field and far-field coupling between radiating elements, as well as the environment factors, has been rigorously taken into account. Finally, within the scope to simulate an entire ultra-wideband link, the transmitting side of an ultrawideband link has been designed, and an interesting Front-End co-design technique application has been setup.

A dynamical system approach to data assimilation in chaotic models

The Assimilation in the Unstable Subspace (AUS) was introduced by Trevisan and Uboldi in 2004, and developed by Trevisan, Uboldi and Carrassi, to minimize the analysis and forecast errors by exploiting the flow-dependent instabilities of the forecast-analysis cycle system, which may be thought of as a system forced by observations. In the AUS scheme the assimilation is obtained by confining the analysis increment in the unstable subspace of the forecast-analysis cycle system so that it will have the same structure of the dominant instabilities of the system. The unstable subspace is estimated by Breeding on the Data Assimilation System (BDAS). AUS- BDAS has already been tested in realistic models and observational configurations, including a Quasi-Geostrophicmodel and a high dimensional, primitive equation ocean model; the experiments include both fixed and“adaptive”observations. In these contexts, the AUS-BDAS approach greatly reduces the analysis error, with reasonable computational costs for data assimilation with respect, for example, to a prohibitive full Extended Kalman Filter. This is a follow-up study in which we revisit the AUS-BDAS approach in the more basic, highly nonlinear Lorenz 1963 convective model. We run observation system simulation experiments in a perfect model setting, and with two types of model error as well: random and systematic. In the different configurations examined, and in a perfect model setting, AUS once again shows better efficiency than other advanced data assimilation schemes. In the present study, we develop an iterative scheme that leads to a significant improvement of the overall assimilation performance with respect also to standard AUS. In particular, it boosts the efficiency of regime’s changes tracking, with a low computational cost. Other data assimilation schemes need estimates of ad hoc parameters, which have to be tuned for the specific model at hand. In Numerical Weather Prediction models, tuning of parameters — and in particular an estimate of the model error covariance matrix — may turn out to be quite difficult. Our proposed approach, instead, may be easier to implement in operational models.

High-resolution simulation of stack pollutant emissions

[EN]A three-dimensional air pollution model for the short-term simulation of emission, transport and reaction of pollutants is presented. In the finite element simulation of these environmental processes over a complex terrain, a mesh generator capable of adapting itself to the topographic characteristics is essential, A local refinement of tetrahedra is used in order to capture the plume rise. Then a wind field is computed by using a mass-consistent model and perturbing its vertical component to introduce the plume rise effect. Finally, an Eulerian convection-diffusionreaction model is used to simulate the pollutant dispersion…

Development of SuperEnsemble Techniques for the Mediterranean Ocean Forecasting System

This research activity studied how the uncertainties are concerned and interrelated through the multi-model approach, since it seems to be the bigger challenge of ocean and weather forecasting. Moreover, we tried to reduce model error throughout the superensemble approach. In order to provide this aim, we created different dataset and by means of proper algorithms we obtained the superensamble estimate. We studied the sensitivity of this algorithm in function of its characteristics parameters. Clearly, it is not possible to evaluate a reasonable estimation of the error neglecting the importance of the grid size of ocean model, for the large amount of all the sub grid-phenomena embedded in space discretizations that can be only roughly parametrized instead of an explicit evaluation. For this reason we also developed a high resolution model, in order to calculate for the first time the impact of grid resolution on model error.

Influence of advanced load simulation models on fatigue design of jackets for offshore wind turbines.

Constant developments in the field of offshore wind energy have increased the range of water depths at which wind farms are planned to be installed. Therefore, in addition to monopile support structures suitable in shallow waters (up to 30 m), different types of support structures, able to withstand severe sea conditions at the greater water depths, have been developed. For water depths above 30 m, the jacket is one of the preferred support types. Jacket represents a lightweight support structure, which, in combination with complex nature of environmental loads, is prone to highly dynamic behavior. As a consequence, high stresses with great variability in time can be observed in all structural members. The highest concentration of stresses occurs in joints due to their nature (structural discontinuities) and due to the existence of notches along the welds present in the joints. This makes them the weakest elements of the jacket in terms of fatigue. In the numerical modeling of jackets for offshore wind turbines, a reduction of local stresses at the chord-brace joints, and consequently an optimization of the model, can be achieved by implementing joint flexibility in the chord-brace joints. Therefore, in this work, the influence of joint flexibility on the fatigue damage in chord-brace joints of a numerical jacket model, subjected to advanced load simulations, is studied.

Chemical interaction between ocean and atmosphere

The exchange of chemical constituents between ocean and atmosphere provides potentially important feedback mechanisms in the climate system. The aim of this study is to develop and evaluate a chemically coupled global atmosphere-ocean model. For this, an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with atmospheric chemistry has been expanded to include oceanic biogeochemistry and the process of air-sea gas exchange. The calculation of seawater concentrations in the oceanic biogeochemistry submodel has been expanded from DMS, CO₂

Transport model of the human Na+-coupled L-ascorbic acid (vitamin C) transporter SVCT1

Vitamin C (L-ascorbic acid) is an essential micronutrient that serves as an antioxidant and as a cofactor in many enzymatic reactions. Intestinal absorption and renal reabsorption of the vitamin is mediated by the epithelial apical L-ascorbic acid cotransporter SVCT1 (SLC23A1). We explored the molecular mechanisms of SVCT1-mediated L-ascorbic acid transport using radiotracer and voltage-clamp techniques in RNA-injected Xenopus oocytes. L-ascorbic acid transport was saturable (K(0.5) approximately 70 microM), temperature dependent (Q(10) approximately 5), and energized by the Na(+) electrochemical potential gradient. We obtained a Na(+)-L-ascorbic acid coupling ratio of 2:1 from simultaneous measurement of currents and fluxes. L-ascorbic acid and Na(+) saturation kinetics as a function of cosubstrate concentrations revealed a simultaneous transport mechanism in which binding is ordered Na(+), L-ascorbic acid, Na(+). In the absence of L-ascorbic acid, SVCT1 mediated pre-steady-state currents that decayed with time constants 3-15 ms. Transients were described by single Boltzmann distributions. At 100 mM Na(+), maximal charge translocation (Q(max)) was approximately 25 nC, around a midpoint (V(0.5)) at -9 mV, and with apparent valence approximately -1. Q(max) was conserved upon progressive removal of Na(+), whereas V(0.5) shifted to more hyperpolarized potentials. Model simulation predicted that the pre-steady-state current predominantly results from an ion-well effect on binding of the first Na(+) partway within the membrane electric field. We present a transport model for SVCT1 that will provide a framework for investigating the impact of specific mutations and polymorphisms in SLC23A1 and help us better understand the contribution of SVCT1 to vitamin C metabolism in health and disease.

Amplified inception of European Little Ice Age by sea ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks

The inception of the Little Ice Age (~1400–1700 AD) is believed to have been driven by an interplay of external forcing and climate system internal variability. While the hemispheric signal seems to have been dominated by solar irradiance and volcanic eruptions, the understanding of mechanisms shaping the climate on a continental scale is less robust. In an ensemble of transient model simulations and a new type of sensitivity experiments with artificial sea ice growth, the authors identify a sea ice–ocean–atmosphere feedback mechanism that amplifies the Little Ice Age cooling in the North Atlantic–European region and produces the temperature pattern suggested by paleoclimatic reconstructions. Initiated by increasing negative forcing, the Arctic sea ice substantially expands at the beginning of the Little Ice Age. The excess of sea ice is exported to the subpolar North Atlantic, where it melts, thereby weakening convection of the ocean. Consequently, northward ocean heat transport is reduced, reinforcing the expansion of the sea ice and the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere. In the Nordic Seas, sea surface height anomalies cause the oceanic recirculation to strengthen at the expense of the warm Barents Sea inflow, thereby further reinforcing sea ice growth. The absent ocean–atmosphere heat flux in the Barents Sea results in an amplified cooling over Northern Europe. The positive nature of this feedback mechanism enables sea ice to remain in an expanded state for decades up to a century, favoring sustained cold periods over Europe such as the Little Ice Age. Support for the feedback mechanism comes from recent proxy reconstructions around the Nordic Seas.

Cellular dynamic simulator: an event driven molecular simulation environment for cellular physiology.

In this paper, we present the Cellular Dynamic Simulator (CDS) for simulating diffusion and chemical reactions within crowded molecular environments. CDS is based on a novel event driven algorithm specifically designed for precise calculation of the timing of collisions, reactions and other events for each individual molecule in the environment. Generic mesh based compartments allow the creation / importation of very simple or detailed cellular structures that exist in a 3D environment. Multiple levels of compartments and static obstacles can be used to create a dense environment to mimic cellular boundaries and the intracellular space. The CDS algorithm takes into account volume exclusion and molecular crowding that may impact signaling cascades in small sub-cellular compartments such as dendritic spines. With the CDS, we can simulate simple enzyme reactions; aggregation, channel transport, as well as highly complicated chemical reaction networks of both freely diffusing and membrane bound multi-protein complexes. Components of the CDS are generally defined such that the simulator can be applied to a wide range of environments in terms of scale and level of detail. Through an initialization GUI, a simple simulation environment can be created and populated within minutes yet is powerful enough to design complex 3D cellular architecture. The initialization tool allows visual confirmation of the environment construction prior to execution by the simulator. This paper describes the CDS algorithm, design implementation, and provides an overview of the types of features available and the utility of those features are highlighted in demonstrations.