Can the frequency of blocking be described by a red noise process?

The frequency of persistent atmospheric blocking events in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is compared with the blocking frequency produced by a simple first-order Markov model designed to predict the time evolution of a blocking index [defined by the meridional contrast of potential temperature on the 2-PVU surface (1 PVU ≡ 1 × 10−6 K m2 kg−1 s−1)]. With the observed spatial coherence built into the model, it is able to reproduce the main regions of blocking occurrence and the frequencies of sector blocking very well. This underlines the importance of the climatological background flow in determining the locations of high blocking occurrence as being the regions where the mean midlatitude meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient is weak. However, when only persistent blocking episodes are considered, the model is unable to simulate the observed frequencies. It is proposed that this persistence beyond that given by a red noise model is due to the self-sustaining nature of the blocking phenomenon.

Preparation of consistent soil data sets for modelling purposes: Secondary SOTER data for four case study areas

The common GIS-based approach to regional analyses of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes is to define geographic layers for which unique sets of driving variables are derived, which include land use, climate, and soils. These GIS layers, with their associated attribute data, can then be fed into a range of empirical and dynamic models. Common methodologies for collating and formatting regional data sets on land use, climate, and soils were adopted for the project Assessment of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks and Changes at National Scale (GEFSOC). This permitted the development of a uniform protocol for handling the various input for the dynamic GEFSOC Modelling System. Consistent soil data sets for Amazon-Brazil, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) of India, Jordan and Kenya, the case study areas considered in the GEFSOC project, were prepared using methodologies developed for the World Soils and Terrain Database (SOTER). The approach involved three main stages: (1) compiling new soil geographic and attribute data in SOTER format; (2) using expert estimates and common sense to fill selected gaps in the measured or primary data; (3) using a scheme of taxonomy-based pedotransfer rules and expert-rules to derive soil parameter estimates for similar soil units with missing soil analytical data. The most appropriate approach varied from country to country, depending largely on the overall accessibility and quality of the primary soil data available in the case study areas. The secondary SOTER data sets discussed here are appropriate for a wide range of environmental applications at national scale. These include agro-ecological zoning, land evaluation, modelling of soil C stocks and changes, and studies of soil vulnerability to pollution. Estimates of national-scale stocks of SOC, calculated using SOTER methods, are presented as a first example of database application. Independent estimates of SOC stocks are needed to evaluate the outcome of the GEFSOC Modelling System for current conditions of land use and climate. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How well does the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System predict blocking?

Forecasting atmospheric blocking is one of the main problems facing medium-range weather forecasters in the extratropics. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) provides an excellent basis for medium-range forecasting as it provides a number of different possible realizations of the meteorological future. This ensemble of forecasts attempts to account for uncertainties in both the initial conditions and the model formulation. Since 18 July 2000, routine output from the EPS has included the field of potential temperature on the potential vorticity (PV) D 2 PV units (PVU) surface, the dynamical tropopause. This has enabled the objective identification of blocking using an index based on the reversal of the meridional potential-temperature gradient. A year of EPS probability forecasts of Euro-Atlantic and Pacific blocking have been produced and are assessed in this paper, concentrating on the Euro-Atlantic sector. Standard verification techniques such as Brier scores, Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and reliability diagrams are used. It is shown that Euro-Atlantic sector-blocking forecasts are skilful relative to climatology out to 10 days, and are more skilful than the deterministic control forecast at all lead times. The EPS is also more skilful than a probabilistic version of this deterministic forecast, though the difference is smaller. In addition, it is shown that the onset of a sector-blocking episode is less well predicted than its decay. As the lead time increases, the probability forecasts tend towards a model climatology with slightly less blocking than is seen in the real atmosphere. This small under-forecasting bias in the blocking forecasts is possibly related to a westerly bias in the ECMWF model. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

A new perspective on blocking

It is argued that the essential aspect of atmospheric blocking may be seen in the wave breaking of potential temperature (θ) on a potential vorticity (PV) surface, which may be identified with the tropopause, and the consequent reversal of the usual meridional temperature gradient of θ. A new dynamical blocking index is constructed using a meridional θ difference on a PV surface. Unlike in previous studies, the central blocking latitude about which this difference is constructed is allowed to vary with longitude. At each longitude it is determined by the latitude at which the climatological high-pass transient eddy kinetic energy is a maximum. Based on the blocking index, at each longitude local instantaneous blocking, large-scale blocking, and blocking episodes are defined. For longitudinal sectors, sector blocking and sector blocking episodes are also defined. The 5-yr annual climatologies of the three longitudinally defined blocking event frequencies and the seasonal climatologies of blocking episode frequency are shown. The climatologies all pick out the eastern North Atlantic–Europe and eastern North Pacific–western North America regions. There is evidence that Pacific blocking shifts into the western central Pacific in the summer. Sector blocking episodes of 4 days or more are shown to exhibit different persistence characteristics to shorter events, showing that blocking is not just the long timescale tail end of a distribution. The PV–θ index results for the annual average location of Pacific blocking agree with synoptic studies but disagree with modern quantitative height field–based studies. It is considered that the index used here is to be preferred anyway because of its dynamical basis. However, the longitudinal discrepancy is found to be associated with the use in the height field index studies of a central blocking latitude that is independent of longitude. In particular, the use in the North Pacific of a latitude that is suitable for the eastern North Atlantic leads to spurious categorization of blocking there. Furthermore, the PV–θ index is better able to detect Ω blocking than conventional height field indices.

High performance blocking filters for the region 1µm to 20µm

A set of filters based on the sequence of semiconductor edges is described which offers continuity of short-wave infrared blocking. The rejection throughout the stop region is greater than 103 for each filter and the transmission better than 70% through one octave with a square cutoff. The cutoff points are located at intervals of about two-thirds of an octave. Filters at 2.6 ,µm, 5.5 µm, and 12 µm which use a low-passing multilayer in combination with a semiconductor absorption edge are described in detail. The design of multilayers for optimum performance is discussed by analogy with the synthesis of electric circuit filters.

The use of ultraviolet-blocking films in insect pest management in the UK; effects on naturally occurring arthropod pest and natural enemy populations in a protected cucumber crop

Studies in polytunnels were conducted to investigate the effects of ultraviolet (UV)-blocking films on naturally occurring insect pests and their arthropod natural enemies on a cucumber crop. Within tunnels clad with Antibotrytis (blocks light < 400 nm) and UVI/EVA (UV transmitting), 5.8 and 23.4 times more aphids, respectively, were recorded on traps compared with those on traps within tunnels clad with XL 385 (blocks light < 385 nm). When all plants within the UVI/EVA tunnels had become heavily infested with aphids, half of the plants in XL 385 tunnels were uninfested. More Coleoptera and thrips (approximately two times) were recorded under the UVI/EVA film than under the UV-blocking films, but for other arthropod pests (e. g. whitefly, leafhoppers), clear conclusions could not be drawn as low numbers were recorded. Substantial numbers of chalcid parasitoids and syrphids were found under the UV-blocking films, but further research is needed to evaluate fully the effect of such films on biological control of aphids. Higher syrphid numbers and more aphid mummies were recorded under the UVI/EVA film, probably because of the higher numbers of aphids present in tunnels clad with this film. The potential that UV-blocking films have as an effective component of commercial Integrated Pest Management (IPM) systems, for protected horticultural crops, is discussed.

Effects of UV-blocking films on the dispersal behavior of Encarsia formosa (Hymenoptera : Aphelinidae)

The parasitoid Encarsia formosa Gahan (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae) has been used successfully for the control of Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Westwood) (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae). The development of UV-blocking plastic films has added a new component to future integrated pest management systems by disrupting insect pest infestation when UV light is excluded. Because both T. vaporariorum and E. formosa are reported to have similar spectral efficiency, there was a need to identify the impact of UV-blocking films on the dispersal behavior of both the pest and the natural enemy. In field studies, using choice-chamber experiments, E. formosa showed some preference to disperse into compartments where less UV light was blocked. However, further studies indicated that the effect was primarily attributable to the different light diffusion properties of the films tested. Thus, unlike its whitefly host, when the UV-absorbing properties of the films were similar, but the light diffusion properties differed, E.formosa adults preferred to disperse into compartments clad with films that had high light diffusion properties. When the plastic films differed most in their UV-absorbing capacity and had no light-diffusion capability, the initial dispersal of E. formosa between treatments was similar, although a small preference toward the environment with UV light was observed over time. When parasitoid dispersal was measured 3 h after release, more parasitoids were found on plants, suggesting that the parasitoids would search plants for whitefly hosts, even in a UV-blocked light environment. The potential for the integration of UV-blocking films with E. formosa in an advanced whitefly management system is discussed.