Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference for wind power short-term forecasting

The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. In this paper, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference approach is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Numerical results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Entropy analysis of DNA code dynamics in human chromosomes

Deoxyribonucleic acid, or DNA, is the most fundamental aspect of life but present day scientific knowledge has merely scratched the surface of the problem posed by its decoding. While experimental methods provide insightful clues, the adoption of analysis tools supported by the formalism of mathematics will lead to a systematic and solid build-up of knowledge. This paper studies human DNA from the perspective of system dynamics. By associating entropy and the Fourier transform, several global properties of the code are revealed. The fractional order characteristics emerge as a natural consequence of the information content. These properties constitute a small piece of scientific knowledge that will support further efforts towards the final aim of establishing a comprehensive theory of the phenomena involved in life.

Adaptive tool for automatic data collection of real electricity markets

The study of electricity markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in last years, as result of the new challenges that the electricity markets restructuring produced. This restructuring increased the competitiveness of the market, but with it its complexity. The growing complexity and unpredictability of the market’s evolution consequently increases the decision making difficulty. Therefore, the intervenient entities are forced to rethink their behaviour and market strategies. Currently, lots of information concerning electricity markets is available. These data, concerning innumerous regards of electricity markets operation, is accessible free of charge, and it is essential for understanding and suitably modelling electricity markets. This paper proposes a tool which is able to handle, store and dynamically update data. The development of the proposed tool is expected to be of great importance to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities.

Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.

Fractional dynamics in DNA

This paper addresses the DNA code analysis in the perspective of dynamics and fractional calculus. Several mathematical tools are selected to establish a quantitative method without distorting the alphabet represented by the sequence of DNA bases. The association of Gray code, Fourier transform and fractional calculus leads to a categorical representation of species and chromosomes.

Multiagent system for adaptive strategy formulation in electricity markets

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. MASCEM is a market simulator developed to allow deep studies of the interactions between the players that take part in the electricity market negotiations. This paper presents a new proposal for the definition of MASCEM players’ strategies to negotiate in the market. The proposed methodology is multiagent based, using reinforcement learning algorithms to provide players with the capabilities to perceive the changes in the environment, while adapting their bids formulation according to their needs, using a set of different techniques that are at their disposal.

Cost dependent strategy for electricity markets bidding based on adaptive reinforcement learning

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM provides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behavior. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players with strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses a reinforcement learning algorithm to learn from experience how to choose the best from a set of possible bids. These bids are defined accordingly to the cost function that each producer presents.

Contextual intelligent load management with ANN adaptive learning module

With the current increase of energy resources prices and environmental concerns intelligent load management systems are gaining more and more importance. This paper concerns a SCADA House Intelligent Management (SHIM) system that includes an optimization module using deterministic and genetic algorithm approaches. SHIM undertakes contextual load management based on the characterization of each situation. SHIM considers available generation resources, load demand, supplier/market electricity price, and consumers’ constraints and preferences. The paper focus on the recently developed learning module which is based on artificial neural networks (ANN). The learning module allows the adjustment of users’ profiles along SHIM lifetime. A case study considering a system with fourteen discrete and four variable loads managed by a SHIM system during five consecutive similar weekends is presented.

Bid definition method for electricity markets based on an adaptive multiagent system

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. MASCEM is a market simulator developed to allow deep studies of the interactions between the players that take part in the electricity market negotiations. This paper presents a new proposal for the definition of MASCEM players’ strategies to negotiate in the market. The proposed methodology is multiagent based, using reinforcement learning algorithms to provide players with the capabilities to perceive the changes in the environment, while adapting their bids formulation according to their needs, using a set of different techniques that are at their disposal. Each agent has the knowledge about a different method for defining a strategy for playing in the market, the main agent chooses the best among all those, and provides it to the market player that requests, to be used in the market. This paper also presents a methodology to manage the efficiency/effectiveness balance of this method, to guarantee that the degradation of the simulator processing times takes the correct measure.

Strategic bidding methodology for electricity markets using adaptive learning

The very particular characteristics of electricity markets, require deep studies of the interactions between the involved players. MASCEM is a market simulator developed to allow studying electricity market negotiations. This paper presents a new proposal for the definition of MASCEM players’ strategies to negotiate in the market. The proposed methodology is implemented as a multiagent system, using reinforcement learning algorithms to provide players with the capabilities to perceive the changes in the environment, while adapting their bids formulation according to their needs, using a set of different techniques that are at their disposal. This paper also presents a methodology to define players’ models based on the historic of their past actions, interpreting how their choices are affected by past experience, and competition.

Learning objects recommendation in an adaptive educational hypermedia system

The aim of this paper is presenting the modules of the Adaptive Educational Hypermedia System PCMAT, responsible for the recommendation of learning objects. PCMAT is an online collaborative learning platform with a constructivist approach, which assesses the user’s knowledge and presents contents and activities adapted to the characteristics and learning style of students of mathematics in basic schools. The recommendation module and search and retrieval module choose the most adequate learning object, based on the user's characteristics and performance, and in this way contribute to the system’s adaptability.

PCMAT, an adaptive learning platform

This paper is about PCMAT, an adaptive learning platform for Mathematics in Basic Education schools. Based on a constructivist approach, PCMAT aims at verifying how techniques from adaptive hypermedia systems can improve e-learning based systems. To achieve this goal, PCMAT includes a Pedagogical Model that contains a set of adaptation rules that influence the student-platform interaction. PCMAT was subject to a preliminary testing with students aged between 12 and 14 years old on the subject of direct proportionality. The results from this preliminary test are quite promising as they seem to demonstrate the validity of our proposal.

Content adaptation for an adaptive hypermedia system

The aim of this paper is presenting the recommendation module of the Mathematics Collaborative Learning Platform (PCMAT). PCMAT is an Adaptive Educational Hypermedia System (AEHS), with a constructivist approach, which presents contents and activities adapted to the characteristics and learning style of students of mathematics in basic schools. The recommendation module is responsible for choosing different learning resources for the platform, based on the user's characteristics and performance. Since the main purpose of an adaptive system is to provide the user with content and interface adaptation, the recommendation module is integral to PCMAT’s adaptation model.

Autoinhibition of TBCB regulates EB1-mediated microtubule dynamics

Tubulin cofactors (TBCs) participate in the folding, dimerization, and dissociation pathways of the tubulin dimer. Among them, TBCB and TBCE are two CAP-Gly domain-containing proteins that together efficiently interact with and dissociate the tubulin dimer. In the study reported here we showed that TBCB localizes at spindle and midzone microtubules during mitosis. Furthermore, the motif DEI/M-COO− present in TBCB, which is similar to the EEY/F-COO− element characteristic of EB proteins, CLIP-170, and α-tubulin, is required for TBCE–TBCB heterodimer formation and thus for tubulin dimer dissociation. This motif is responsible for TBCB autoinhibition, and our analysis suggests that TBCB is a monomer in solution. Mutants of TBCB lacking this motif are derepressed and induce microtubule depolymerization through an interaction with EB1 associated with microtubule tips. TBCB is also able to bind to the chaperonin complex CCT containing α-tubulin, suggesting that it could escort tubulin to facilitate its folding and dimerization, recycling or degradation.

Symbolic dynamics and renormalization of non-autonomous k periodic dynamical systems

The purpose of this paper was to introduce the symbolic formalism based on kneading theory, which allows us to study the renormalization of non-autonomous periodic dynamical systems.