Development of methodology for treating pressure waves from explosions accounting for modeling and data uncertainties

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2012

Modeling the inelastic behavior of heat exchangers accounting for fluid-structure interactions

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Maschinenbau, Diss., 2013

Material flow accounting of Spain

Material throughput is a means of measuring the so-called social metabolism, or physical dimensions of a society’s consumption, and can be taken as an indirect and approximate indicator of sustainability. Material flow accounting can be used to test the dematerialisation hypothesis, the idea that technological progress causes a decrease in total material used (strong dematerialisation) or material used per monetary unit of output (weak dematerialisation). This paper sets out the results of a material flow analysis for Spain for the period from 1980 to 2000. The analysis reveals that neither strong nor weak dematerialisation took place during the period analysed. Although the population did not increase considerably, materials mobilised by the Spanish economy (DMI) increased by 85% in absolute terms, surpassing GDP growth. In addition, Spain became more dependent on external trade in physical terms. In fact, its imports are more than twice the amount of its exports in terms of weight.

Absolute and relative deprivation and the measurement of poverty

This paper develops the link between poverty and inequality by focussing on a class of poverty indices (some of them well-known) which aggregate normative concerns for absolute and relative deprivation. The indices are distinguished by a parameter that captures the ethical sensitivity of poverty measurement to ``exclusion'' or ``relative-deprivation'' aversion. We also show how the indices can be readily used to predict the impact of growth on poverty. An illustration using LIS data finds that he United States show more relative deprivation than Denmark and Belgium whatever the percentiles considered, but that overall deprivation comparisons of the four countries considered will generally necessarily depend on the intensity of the ethical concern for relative deprivation. The impact of growth on poverty is also seen to depend on the presence of and on the attention granted to concerns over relative deprivation. }

Regional income inequalities in Europe: an updated measurement and some decomposition results

In this paper well-known summary inequality indexes are used to explore interregional income inequalities in Europe. In particular, we mainly employ Theils’population-weighted index because of its appealing properties. Two decomposition analysis are applied. First, regional inequalities are decomposed by regional subgroups (countries). Second, intertemporal inequality changes are separated into income and population changes. The main results can be summarized as follows. First, data confirm a reduction in crossregional inequality during 1982-97. Second, this reduction is basically due to real convergence among countries. Third, currently the greater part of European interregional disparities is within-country by nature, which introduce an important challenge for the European policy. Fourth, inequality changes are due mainly to income variations, population changes playing a minor role.

Material flow accounting of Mexico (1970-2003)

This technical background paper describes the methods applied and data sources used in the compilation of the 1980-2003 data set for material flow accounts of the Mexican economy and presents the data set. It is organised in four parts: the first part gives an overview of the Material Flow Accounting (MFA) methodology. The second part presents the main material flows of the Mexican economy including biomass, fossil fuels, metal ores, industrial minerals and, construction minerals. The aim of this part is to explain the procedures and methods followed, the data sources used as well as providing a brief evaluation of the quality and reliability of the information used and the accounts established. Finally, some conclusions will be provided.

Material Flow Accounting in Chile, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru (1980-2000)

In this paper we compare the resource flows of Chile, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru between 1980 and 2000. In this time span, the domestic extraction of materials increased in the four countries, mainly due to the mining sector in Chile and Peru, biomass and oil in Ecuador and construction minerals in Mexico. Imports and exports increased too, due to the increasing integration in the international markets, prompted by the liberalization policies undertaken by the four countries between the late 1970s and the late 1990s. The four countries had a negative physical trade balance for most of the period analyzed, meaning that their exports exceeded their imports in terms of weight. However, the increase of imports reduced the physical deficit in Chile, Mexico and Peru. Ecuador’s physical deficit was the highest and did not decrease in the period analyzed. Also, a diversification of exports away from bulk commodities could be observed in Chile and Mexico, and to a lesser extent in Peru, whereas in Ecuador the export sector remained mainly based on oil and biomass. More research is needed to explore the environmental effects of this phenomenon. Also, the indirect flows associated to the direct physical flows deserve to be subject to further analysis.

Diagnosing pulmonary embolism in outpatients with clinical assessment, D-dimer measurement, venous ultrasound, and helical computed tomography: a multicenter management study.

PURPOSE: To evaluate a diagnostic strategy for pulmonary embolism that combined clinical assessment, plasma D-dimer measurement, lower limb venous ultrasonography, and helical computed tomography (CT). METHODS: A cohort of 965 consecutive patients presenting to the emergency departments of three general and teaching hospitals with clinically suspected pulmonary embolism underwent sequential noninvasive testing. Clinical probability was assessed by a prediction rule combined with implicit judgment. All patients were followed for 3 months. RESULTS: A normal D-dimer level (<500 microg/L by a rapid enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) ruled out venous thromboembolism in 280 patients (29%), and finding a deep vein thrombosis by ultrasonography established the diagnosis in 92 patients (9.5%). Helical CT was required in only 593 patients (61%) and showed pulmonary embolism in 124 patients (12.8%). Pulmonary embolism was considered ruled out in the 450 patients (46.6%) with a negative ultrasound and CT scan and a low-to-intermediate clinical probability. The 8 patients with a negative ultrasound and CT scan despite a high clinical probability proceeded to pulmonary angiography (positive: 2; negative: 6). Helical CT was inconclusive in 11 patients (pulmonary embolism: 4; no pulmonary embolism: 7). The overall prevalence of pulmonary embolism was 23%. Patients classified as not having pulmonary embolism were not anticoagulated during follow-up and had a 3-month thromboembolic risk of 1.0% (95% confidence interval: 0.5% to 2.1%). CONCLUSION: A noninvasive diagnostic strategy combining clinical assessment, D-dimer measurement, ultrasonography, and helical CT yielded a diagnosis in 99% of outpatients suspected of pulmonary embolism, and appeared to be safe, provided that CT was combined with ultrasonography to rule out the disease.

The Measurement of social polarization in a multi-group context

Polarization indices presented up to now have only focused their attention on the distribution of income/wealth. However, in many circumstances income is not the only relevant dimension that might be the cause of social conflict, so it is very important to have a social polarization index able to cope with alternative dimensions. In this paper we present an axiomatic characterization of one of such indices: it has been obtained as an extension of the (income) polarization measure introduced in Duclos, Esteban and Ray (2004) to a wider domain. It turns out that the axiomatic structure introduced in that paper alone is not appropriate to obtain a fully satisfactory characterization of our measure, so additional axioms are proposed. As a byproduct, we present an alternative axiomatization of the aforementioned income polarization measure.

Ambulatory blood pressure measurement and antihypertensive therapy.

The traditional basis for assessing the effect of antihypertensive therapy is the blood pressure reading taken by a physician. However, several recent trials have been designed to evaluate the blood pressure lowering effect of various therapeutic agents during the patients' normal daytime activities, using a portable, semi-automatic blood pressure recorder. The results have shown that in a given patient, blood pressure measured at the physician's office often differs greatly from that prevailing during the rest of the day. This is true both in treated and untreated hypertensive patients. The difference between office and ambulatory recorded pressures cannot be predicted from blood pressure levels measured by the physician. Therefore, a prospective study was carried out in patients with diastolic blood pressures that were uncontrolled at the physician's office despite antihypertensive therapy. The purpose was to evaluate the response of recorded ambulatory blood pressure to treatment adjustments aimed at reducing office blood pressure below a pre-set target level. Only patients with high ambulatory blood pressures at the outset appeared to benefit from further changes in therapy. Thus, ambulatory blood pressure monitoring can be used to identify those patients who remain hypertensive only when facing the physician, despite antihypertensive therapy. Ambulatory monitoring could thus help to evaluate the efficacy of antihypertensive therapy and allow individual treatment.

Automatic measurement of key ski jumping phases and temporal events with a wearable system.

We propose a new method, based on inertial sensors, to automatically measure at high frequency the durations of the main phases of ski jumping (i.e. take-off release, take-off, and early flight). The kinematics of the ski jumping movement were recorded by four inertial sensors, attached to the thigh and shank of junior athletes, for 40 jumps performed during indoor conditions and 36 jumps in field conditions. An algorithm was designed to detect temporal events from the recorded signals and to estimate the duration of each phase. These durations were evaluated against a reference camera-based motion capture system and by trainers conducting video observations. The precision for the take-off release and take-off durations (indoor < 39 ms, outdoor = 27 ms) can be considered technically valid for performance assessment. The errors for early flight duration (indoor = 22 ms, outdoor = 119 ms) were comparable to the trainers' variability and should be interpreted with caution. No significant changes in the error were noted between indoor and outdoor conditions, and individual jumping technique did not influence the error of take-off release and take-off. Therefore, the proposed system can provide valuable information for performance evaluation of ski jumpers during training sessions.

Adolescent Drug Abuse Diagnosis (ADAD) vs. Health of Nation Outcome Scale for Children and Adolescents (HoNOSCA) in clinical outcome measurement.

BACKGROUND: The Adolescent Drug Abuse Diagnosis (ADAD) and Health of Nation Outcome Scales for Children and Adolescents (HoNOSCA) are both measures of outcome for adolescent mental health services. AIMS: To compare the ADAD with HoNOSCA; to examine their clinical usefulness. METHODS: Comparison of the ADAD and HoNOSCA outcome measures of 20 adolescents attending a psychiatric day care unit. RESULTS: ADAD change was positively correlated with HoNOSCA change. HoNOSCA assesses the clinic's day-care programme more positively than the ADAD. The ADAD detects a group for which the mean score remains unchanged whereas HoNOSCA does not. CONCLUSIONS: A good convergent validity emerges between the two assessment tools. The ADAD allows an evidence-based assessment and generally enables a better subject discrimination than HoNOSCA. HoNOSCA gives a less refined evaluation but is more economic in time and possibly more sensitive to change. Both assessment tools give useful information and enabled the Day-care Unit for Adolescents to rethink the process of care and of outcome, which benefited both the institution and the patients.

The Importance of Revenue Sharing for the Local Economic Impacts of a Renewable Energy Project: A Social Accounting Matrix Approach

As demand for electricity from renewable energy sources grows, there is increasing interest, and public and financial support, for local communities to become involved in the development of renewable energy projects. In the UK, “Community Benefit” payments are the most common financial link between renewable energy projects and local communities. These are “goodwill” payments from the project developer for the community to spend as it wishes. However, if an ownership stake in the renewable energy project were possible, receipts to the local community would potentially be considerably higher. The local economic impacts of these receipts are difficult to quantify using traditional Input-Output techniques, but can be more appropriately handled within a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework where income flows between agents can be traced in detail. We use a SAM for the Shetland Islands to evaluate the potential local economic and employment impact of a large onshore wind energy project proposed for the Islands. Sensitivity analysis is used to show how the local impact varies with: the level of Community Benefit payments; the portion of intermediate inputs being sourced from within the local economy; and the level of any local community ownership of the project. By a substantial margin, local ownership confers the greatest economic impacts for the local community.

On the characterisation and measurement of the welfare effects of income mobility from an ex-ante perspective

The paper employs a rank-dependent formulation of the social welfare function with time-separable utilities to evaluate the economic consequences of income mobility from an ex-ante perspective. The resultant class of measures can be decomposed not only in terms of structural and exchange mobility but also in terms of vertical and horizontal mobility, thereby encompassing two of the main approaches in the literature. We illustrate our measurement framework by comparing mobility in the USA and Germany using data from the Cross-National Equivalent File 1980-2005. We find that the pattern of income mobility in the USA was both less pro-poor and more horizontally inequitable than in Germany, but that the latter did not translate into higher levels of exchange mobility given higher levels of absolute inequality and the vertical stance of the growth process.

Constructing a Social Accounting Matrix for Libya

In this paper a Social Accounting Matrix is constructed for Libya for the year 2000. The procedure was divided into three steps. First, a macro SAM was constructed to consistently capture and represent the macroeconomic framework of the Libyan economy in 2000. Second, that macro SAM was disaggregated into a micro SAM incorporating the accounts for individual activities, primary factors and the main economic institutions. But the SAM obtained in this way was not balanced. So in thE final step we balanced the SAM using a cross-entropy procedure in General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS). This SAM integrates national income, inputoutput, flow-of-funds, and foreign trade statistics into a comprehensive and consistent dataset. The lack of coherent time series data for Libya is a serious obstacle for applied research that uses econometric analysis. Our main intension in constructing this SAM has been one of providing benchmark data for economy-wide analysis using CGE modelling for Libya.