Arsenic behaviour from groundwater and soil to crops:impacts on agriculture and food safety

High levels of As in groundwater commonly found in Bangladesh and other parts of Asia not only pose a risk via drinking water consumption but also a risk in agricultural sustainability and food safety. This review attempts to provide an overview of current knowledge and gaps related to the assessment and management of these risks, including the behaviour of As in the soil-plant system, uptake, phytotoxicity, As speciation in foods, dietary habits, and human health risks. Special emphasis has been given to the situation in Bangladesh, where groundwater via shallow tube wells is the most important source of irrigation water in the dry season. Within the soil-plant system, there is a distinct difference in behaviour of As under flooded conditions, where arsenite (AsIII) predominates, and under nonflooded conditions, where arsenate (AsV) predominates. The former is regarded as most toxic to humans and plants. Limited data indicate that As-contaminated irrigation water can result in a slow buildup of As in the topsoil. In some cases the buildup is reflected by the As levels in crops, in others not. It is not yet possible to predict As uptake and toxicity in plants based on soil parameters. It is unknown under what conditions and in what time frame As is building up in the soil. Representative phytotoxicity data necessary to evaluate current and future soil concentrations are not yet available. Although there are no indications that crop production is currently inhibited by As, long-term risks are clearly present. Therefore, with concurrent assessments of the risks, management options to further prevent As accumulation in the topsoil should already have been explored. With regard to human health, data on As speciation in foods in combination with food consumption data are needed to assess dietary exposure, and these data should include spatial and seasonal variability. It is important to control confounding factors in assessing the risks. In a country where malnutrition is prevalent, levels of inorganic As in foods should be balanced against the nutritional value of the foods. Regarding agriculture, As is only one of the many factors that may pose a risk to the sustainability of crop production. Other risk factors such as nutrient depletion and loss of organic matter also must be taken into account to set priorities in terms of research, management, and overall strategy.

Risk factors for falls and injuries in a long-term care facility in Ontario

Objective: To identify risk factors for falls and injuries among seniors living in a long-term care facility. Method: Case-control study of 335 residents living at St. Joseph's Villa, Dundas, Ontario. Cases were defined as residents who fell between July 1, 1996 and June 30, 1997; controls were those who did not fall. To identify risk factors for injury, cases were defined as those with completed incident injury forms and controls as those without. Results: The most important risk factors for falls included: having fallen in the past three months; residing in a secured unit; living in the facility for two or more years; having the potential to cause injury to others; and having an illness, disease or behaviour that may cause a fall. The most important risk factor for injury among those who fell was altered mental state. Conclusion: The risk factors identified may be helpful to those planning falls prevention initiatives within long-term care settings.

Encouraging lifestyle behaviour change in mild cognitive impairment patients:development of appropriate educational material

Objectives: A healthy lifestyle may help maintain cognitive function and reduce the risk of developing dementia. This study employed a focus group approach in order to gain insight into opinions of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients, caregivers (CG) and health professionals (HP) regarding lifestyle and its relationship with cognition. The qualitative data were used to design, develop and pilot test educational material (EM) to help encourage lifestyle behaviour change. Method: Data gathering phase: structured interviews were conducted with HP (n = 10), and focus groups with MCI patients (n = 24) and CG (n = 12). EM was developed and pilot tested with a new group of MCI patients (n = 21) and CG (n = 6). Results: HP alluded to the lack of clinical trial evidence for a lifestyle and MCI risk link. Although they felt that lifestyle modifications should be recommended to MCI patients, they appeared hesitant in communicating this information and discussions were often patient-driven. MCI patients lacked awareness of the lifestyle cognition link. Participants preferred EM to be concise, eye-catching and in written format, with personal delivery of information favoured. Most pilot testers approved of the EM but were heterogeneous in terms of lifestyle, willingness to change and support needed to change. Conclusion: MCI patients need to be made more aware of the importance of lifestyle for cognition. EM such as those developed here, which are specifically tailored for this population would be valuable for HP who, currently, appear reticent in initiating lifestyle-related discussions. Following further evaluation, the EM could be used in health promotion activities targeting MCI patients.

Stressed Web Environments as Strategic Games: Risk Profiles and Weltanschauung

We consider the behaviour of a set of services in a stressed web environment where performance patterns may be difficult to predict. In stressed environments the performances of some providers may degrade while the performances of others, with elastic resources, may improve. The allocation of web-based providers to users (brokering) is modelled by a strategic non-cooperative angel-daemon game with risk profiles. A risk profile specifies a bound on the number of unreliable service providers within an environment without identifying the names of these providers. Risk profiles offer a means of analysing the behaviour of broker agents which allocate service providers to users. A Nash equilibrium is a fixed point of such a game in which no user can locally improve their choice of provider – thus, a Nash equilibrium is a viable solution to the provider/user allocation problem. Angel daemon games provide a means of reasoning about stressed environments and offer the possibility of designing brokers using risk profiles and Nash equilibria.

A pilot study of a family focused, psychosocial intervention with war-exposed youth at risk of attack and abduction in north-eastern Democratic Republic of Congo

Rural communities in the Haut-Uele Province of northern Democratic Republic of Congo live in constant danger of attack and/or abduction by units of the Lord's Resistance Army operating in the region. This pilot study sought to develop and evaluate a community-participative psychosocial intervention involving life skills and relaxation training and Mobile Cinema screenings with this war-affected population living under current threat. 159 war-affected children and young people (aged 7-18) from the villages of Kiliwa and Li-May in north-eastern DR Congo took part in this study. In total, 22% of participants had been abduction previously while 73% had a family member abducted. Symptoms of post-traumatic stress reactions, internalising problems, conduct problems and pro-social behaviour were assessed by blinded interviewers at pre- and post-intervention and at 3-month follow-up. Participants were randomised (with an accompanying caregiver) to 8 sessions of a group-based, community-participative, psychosocial intervention (n=79) carried out by supervised local, lay facilitators or a wait-list control group (n=80). Average seminar attendance rates were high: 88% for participants and 84% for caregivers. Drop-out was low: 97% of participants were assessed at post-intervention and 88% at 3 month follow-up. At post-test, participants reported significantly fewer symptoms of post-traumatic stress reactions compared to controls (Cohen's d=0.40). At 3 month follow up, large improvements in internalising symptoms and moderate improvements in pro-social scores were reported, with caregivers noting a moderate to large decline in conduct problems among the young people. Trial Registration clinicalTrials.gov, Identifier: NCT01542398.

Physical activity, sedentary behaviour and fetal macrosomia in uncomplicated pregnancies: A prospective cohort study

Objective: to explore maternal energy balance, incorporating free living physical activity and sedentary behaviour, in uncomplicated pregnancies at risk of macrosomia.

Methods: a parallel-group cross-sectional analysis was conducted in healthy pregnant women predicted to deliver infants weighing Z4000 g (study group) or o4000 g (control group). Women were recruited in a 1:1 ratio from antenatal clinics in Northern Ireland. Women wore a SenseWears Body Media Pro3 physical activity armband and completed a food diary for four consecutive days in the third trimester. Physical activity was measured in Metabolic Equivalent of Tasks (METs) where 1 MET¼1 kcal per kilogram of body weight per hour. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was employed using the General Linear Model to adjust for potential confounders.

Findings: of the 112 women recruited, 100 complete datasets were available for analysis. There was no significant difference in energy balance between the two groups. Intensity of free living physical activity (average METs) of women predicted to deliver macrosomic infants (n¼50) was significantly lower than that of women in the control group (n¼50) (1.3 (0.2) METs (mean, standard deviation) versus 1.2 (0.2) METs; difference in means 0.1 METs (95% confidence interval: 0.19, 0.01); p¼0.021). Women predicted to deliver macrosomic infants also spent significantly more time in sedentary behaviour (r1 MET) than the control group (16.1 (2.8) hours versus 13.8 (4.3) hours; 2.0 hours (0.3, 3.7), p¼0.020).

Key conclusions and implications for practice: although there was no association between predicted fetal macrosomia and energy balance, those women predicted to deliver a macrosomic infant exhibited increased sedentary behaviour and reduced physical activity in the third trimester of pregnancy. Professionals caring for women during pregnancy have an important role in promoting and supporting more active lifestyles amongst women who are predicted to deliver a macrosomic infant given the known associated risks.

Efficacy of Tenofovir 1% Vaginal Gel in Reducing the Risk of HIV-1 and HSV-2 Infection

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) is a retrovirus that can result in rare opportunistic infections occurring in humans. The onset of these infections is known as Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS). Sexual transmission is responsible for the majority of infections 1, resulting in transmission of HIV due to infected semen or vaginal and cervical secretions containing infected lymphocytes. HIV microbicides are formulations of chemical or biological agents that can be applied to the vagina or rectum with the intention of reducing the acquisition of HIV. Tenofovir is an NRTI that is phosphorylated by adenylate kinase to tenofovir diphosphate, which in turn competes with deoxyadeosine 5’-triphosphate for incorporation into newly synthesized HIV DNA. Once incorporated, tenofovir diphosphate results in chain termination, thus inhibiting viral replication. Tenofovir has been formulated into a range of vaginal formulations, such as rings, tablets gels and films. It has been shown to safe and effective in numerous animal models, while demonstrating safety and acceptability in numerous human trials. The most encouraging results came from the CAPRISA 004 clinical trial which demonstrated that a 1% Tenofovir vaginal gel reduced HIV infection by approximately 39%.

Applying Health Locus of Control and Latent Class Modelling to food and physical activity choices affecting CVD risk

Health Locus of Control (HLC) classifies our beliefs about the connection between our actions and health outcomes (Skinner, 1996) into three categories: “internal control”, corresponding to health being the result of an individual's effort and habits; “control by powerful others”, whereby health depends on others, such as doctors; and “chance control”, according to which health depends on fate and chance. Using Choice Experiments we investigate the relationship between HLC and willingness to change lifestyle, in terms of eating habits, physical activity and associated cardiovascular disease risk, in a 384 person sample representative of the 40–65 aged population of Northern Ireland administered between February and July 2011. Using latent class analysis we identify three discrete classes of people based on their HLC: the first class is sceptical about their capacity to control their health and certain unhealthy habits. Despite being unsatisfied with their situation, they are reluctant to accept behaviour changes. The second is a group of individuals unhappy with their current situation but willing to change through exercise and diet. Finally, a group of healthy optimists is identified, who are satisfied with their current situation but happy to take more physical activity and improve their diet. Our findings show that any policy designed to modify people's health related behaviour should consider the needs of this sceptical class which represents a considerable proportion of the population in the region.

Integration of copy number and transcriptomics provides risk stratification in prostate cancer: A discovery and validation cohort study

BACKGROUND: Understanding the heterogeneous genotypes and phenotypes of prostate cancer is fundamental to improving the way we treat this disease. As yet, there are no validated descriptions of prostate cancer subgroups derived from integrated genomics linked with clinical outcome.

METHODS: In a study of 482 tumour, benign and germline samples from 259 men with primary prostate cancer, we used integrative analysis of copy number alterations (CNA) and array transcriptomics to identify genomic loci that affect expression levels of mRNA in an expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) approach, to stratify patients into subgroups that we then associated with future clinical behaviour, and compared with either CNA or transcriptomics alone.

FINDINGS: We identified five separate patient subgroups with distinct genomic alterations and expression profiles based on 100 discriminating genes in our separate discovery and validation sets of 125 and 103 men. These subgroups were able to consistently predict biochemical relapse (p = 0.0017 and p = 0.016 respectively) and were further validated in a third cohort with long-term follow-up (p = 0.027). We show the relative contributions of gene expression and copy number data on phenotype, and demonstrate the improved power gained from integrative analyses. We confirm alterations in six genes previously associated with prostate cancer (MAP3K7, MELK, RCBTB2, ELAC2, TPD52, ZBTB4), and also identify 94 genes not previously linked to prostate cancer progression that would not have been detected using either transcript or copy number data alone. We confirm a number of previously published molecular changes associated with high risk disease, including MYC amplification, and NKX3-1, RB1 and PTEN deletions, as well as over-expression of PCA3 and AMACR, and loss of MSMB in tumour tissue. A subset of the 100 genes outperforms established clinical predictors of poor prognosis (PSA, Gleason score), as well as previously published gene signatures (p = 0.0001). We further show how our molecular profiles can be used for the early detection of aggressive cases in a clinical setting, and inform treatment decisions.

INTERPRETATION: For the first time in prostate cancer this study demonstrates the importance of integrated genomic analyses incorporating both benign and tumour tissue data in identifying molecular alterations leading to the generation of robust gene sets that are predictive of clinical outcome in independent patient cohorts.

Systematic review of the use of behaviour change techniques (BCTs) in home-based cardiac rehabilitation programmes for patients with cardiovascular disease-protocol

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), including myocardial infarction, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease and strokes, are highly prevalent conditions and are associated with high morbidity and mortality. Cardiac rehabilitation (CR) is an effective form of secondary prevention for CVD but there is a lack of information regarding which specific behaviour change techniques (BCTs) are included in programmes that are associated with improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. This systematic review will describe the BCTs which are utilised within home-based CR programmes that are effective at reducing a spectrum of CVD risk factors.

METHODS/DESIGN: The review will be reported in line with the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidance. Randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials of home-based CR initiated following a vascular event (myocardial infarction, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease and stroke patients) will be included. Articles will be identified through a comprehensive search of MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, Web of Science and Cochrane Database guided by a medical librarian. Two review authors will independently screen articles retrieved from the search for eligibility and extract relevant data, identifying which specific BCTs are included in programmes that are associated with improvements in particular modifiable vascular risk factors.

DISCUSSION: This review will be of value to clinicians and healthcare professionals working with cardiovascular patients by identifying specific BCTs which are used within effective home-based CR. It will also inform the future design and evaluation of complex health service interventions aimed at secondary prevention in CVD.

The effectiveness of disaster risk communication: a systematic review of intervention studies

INTRODUCTION: A disaster is a serious disruption to the functioning of a community that exceeds its capacity to cope within its own resources. Risk communication in disasters aims to prevent and mitigate harm from disasters, prepare the population before a disaster, disseminate information during disasters and aid subsequent recovery. The aim of this systematic review is to identify, appraise and synthesise the findings of studies of the effects of risk communication interventions during four stages of the disaster cycle.

METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Embase, MEDLINE, PsycInfo, Sociological Abstracts, Web of Science and grey literature sources for randomised trials, cluster randomised trials, controlled and uncontrolled before and after studies, interrupted time series studies and qualitative studies of any method of disaster risk communication to at-risk populations. Outcome criteria were disaster-related knowledge and behaviour, and health outcomes.

RESULTS: Searches yielded 5,224 unique articles, of which 100 were judged to be potentially relevant. Twenty-five studies met the inclusion criteria, and two additional studies were identified from other searching. The studies evaluated interventions in all four stages of the disaster cycle, included a variety of man-made, natural and infectious disease disasters, and were conducted in many disparate settings. Only one randomised trial and one cluster randomised trial were identified, with less robust designs used in the other studies. Several studies reported improvements in disaster-related knowledge and behaviour.

DISCUSSION: We identified and appraised intervention studies of disaster risk communication and present an overview of the contemporary literature. Most studies used non-randomised designs that make interpretation challenging. We do not make specific recommendations for practice but highlight the need for high-quality randomised trials and appropriately-analysed cluster randomised trials in the field of disaster risk communication where these can be conducted within an appropriate research ethics framework.

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

Modelling HIV/AIDS length of stay in Portugal

Tese apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão de Informação pelo Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Understanding the internet banking adoption by Portuguese customers - a unified theory of acceptance and use of technology and perceived risk application.

Trabalho de Projeto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação