Empirical vehicle-to-vehicle pathloss modeling in highway, suburban and urban environments at 5.8GHz

In this paper, we present a pathloss characterization for vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications based on empirical data collected from extensive measurement campaign performed under line-of-sight (LOS), non-line-of-sight (NLOS) and varying traffic densities. The experiment was conducted in three different V2V propagation environments: highway, suburban and urban at 5.8GHz. We developed pathloss models for each of the three different V2V environments considered. Based on a log-distance power law model, the values for the pathloss exponent and the standard deviation of shadowing were reported. The average pathloss exponent ranges from 1.77 for highway, 1.68 for the urban to 1.53 for the suburban environment. The reported results can contribute to vehicular network (VANET) simulators and can be used by system designers to develop, evaluate and validate new protocols and system designs under realistic propagation conditions.

Development of fourth-grade students’ understanding of experimental and theoretical probability

Students explored variation and expectation in a probability activity at the end of the first year of a 3-year longitudinal study across grades 4-6. The activity involved experiments in tossing coins both manually and with simulation using the graphing software, TinkerPlots. Initial responses indicated that the students were aware of uncertainty, although an understanding of chance concepts appeared limited. Predicting outcomes of 10 tosses reflected an intuitive notion of equiprobability, with little awareness of variation. Understanding the relationship between experimental and theoretical probability did not emerge until multiple outcomes and representations were generated with the software.

How different are complications that affect the older adult inpatient?

Objective: The incidence and cost of complications occurring in older and younger inpatients were compared. Design: Secondary analysis of hospital-recorded diagnosis and costs for multiday-stay inpatients in 68 public hospitals in two Australian states. Main outcome measures: A complication is defined as a hospital-acquired diagnosis that required additional treatment. The Australian Classification of Hospital-Acquired Diagnoses system is used to identify these complications. Results: Inpatients aged >70 years have a 10.9% complication rate, which is not substantially different from the 10.89% complication rate found in patients aged <70 years. Examination of the probability by single years, however, showed that the peak incidence associated with the neonatal period and childbirth is balanced by rates of up to 20% in patients >80 years. Examining the adult patient population (40–70 years), we found that while some common complications are not age specific (electrolyte disorders and cardiac arrhythmias), others (urinary tract and lower respiratory tract infections) are more common in the older adult inpatient. Conclusion: For inpatients aged >70 years, the risks of complications increase. The incidence of hospital-acquired diagnoses in older adults differs significantly from incidence rates found in younger cohorts. Urinary tract infection and alteration to mental state are more common in older adult inpatients. Surprisingly, these complexities do not result in additional costs when compared with costs for the same complications in younger adults. Greater awareness of these differing patterns will allow patient safety efforts for older patients to focus on complications with the highest incidence and cost.

Paying the extinction debt: Woodland birds in the Mount Lofty Ranges, South Australia

Approximately 90% of the original woodlands of the Mount Lofty Ranges of South Australia has been cleared, modified or fragmented, most severely in the last 60 years, and affecting the avifauna dependent on native vegetation. This study identifies which woodland-dependent species are still declining in two different habitats, Pink GumBlue Gum woodland and Stringybark woodland. We analyse the Mount Lofty Ranges Woodland Bird Long-Term Monitoring Dataset for 1999-2007, to look for changes in abundance of 59 species. We use logistic regression of prevalence on lists in a Bayesian framework, and List Length Analysis to control for variation in detectability. Compared with Reporting Rate Analysis, a more traditional approach, List Length Analysis provides tighter confidence intervals by accounting for changing detectability. Several common species were declining significantly. Increasers were generally large-bodied generalists. Many birds have already disappeared from this modified and naturally isolated woodland island, and our results suggest that more specialist insectivores are likely to follow. The Mount Lofty Ranges can be regarded as a 'canary landscape' for temperate woodlands elsewhere in Australia without immediate action their bird communities are likely to follow the trajectory of the Mount Lofty Ranges avifauna. Alternatively, with extensive habitat restoration and management, we could avoid paying the extinction debt. © Royal Australasian Ornithologists Union 2011.

Low probability differentials and the cryptanalysis of full-round CLEFIA-128

So far, low probability differentials for the key schedule of block ciphers have been used as a straightforward proof of security against related-key differential analysis. To achieve resistance, it is believed that for cipher with k-bit key it suffices the upper bound on the probability to be 2− k . Surprisingly, we show that this reasonable assumption is incorrect, and the probability should be (much) lower than 2− k . Our counter example is a related-key differential analysis of the well established block cipher CLEFIA-128. We show that although the key schedule of CLEFIA-128 prevents differentials with a probability higher than 2− 128, the linear part of the key schedule that produces the round keys, and the Feistel structure of the cipher, allow to exploit particularly chosen differentials with a probability as low as 2− 128. CLEFIA-128 has 214 such differentials, which translate to 214 pairs of weak keys. The probability of each differential is too low, but the weak keys have a special structure which allows with a divide-and-conquer approach to gain an advantage of 27 over generic analysis. We exploit the advantage and give a membership test for the weak-key class and provide analysis of the hashing modes. The proposed analysis has been tested with computer experiments on small-scale variants of CLEFIA-128. Our results do not threaten the practical use of CLEFIA.

BP-XACML: An authorisation policy language for business processes

XACML has become the defacto standard for enterprise- wide, policy-based access control. It is a structured, extensible language that can express and enforce complex access control policies. There have been several efforts to extend XACML to support specific authorisation models, such as the OASIS RBAC profile to support Role Based Access Control. A number of proposals for authorisation models that support business processes and workflow systems have also appeared in the literature. However, there is no published work describing an extension to allow XACML to be used as a policy language with these models. This paper analyses the specific requirements of a policy language to express and enforce business process authorisation policies. It then introduces BP-XACML, a new profile that extends the RBAC profile for XACML so it can support business process authorisation policies. In particular, BP-XACML supports the notion of tasks, and constraints at the level of a task instance, which are important requirements in enforcing business process authorisation policies.

In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

Ankylosing spondylitis in West Africans - evidence for a non-HLA-B27 protective effect

Objective - To determine the prevalence of ankylosing spondylitis in the Fula ethnic group in The Gambia, and relate the disease prevalence to the B27 frequency and subtype distribution of that population. Methods - 215 first degree relatives of 48 B27 positive Fula twin pairs, and 900 adult Fula males were screened for ankylosing spondylitis by clinical and, where appropriate, radiographic means. The B27 prevalence was determined by PCR/sequence specific oligonucleotides on finger prick samples from 100 unrelated Fula, and B27 subtype distribution by SSCP on unrelated B27 positive individuals. This data were then compared with the prevalence of ankylosing spondylitis among B27 positive Caucasians. Results - No case of ankylosing spondylitis was seen. Six per cent of Fula are B27 positive, of which 32% are B*2703 and 68% B*2705. Assuming the penetrance of ankylosing spondylitis in B27 positive Fula is the same as in B27 positive Caucasians, the probability of not observing any cases of ankylosing spondylitis among the Fula examined is remote (P = 6.7 x 10-6). Similarly, the chance of not seeing any cases among those expected to be either B*2705 or B*2703 was small (P = 3.2 x 10-4 for B*2705, and P = 0.02 for B*2703). Conclusions - The risk of developing ankylosing spondylitis in B27 positive Fula is lower than in B27 positive Caucasians. This is not explained by the B27 subtype distribution among Fula, and suggests the presence of some non-B27 protective factor reducing the prevalence of ankylosing spondylitis in this population.

Post-transcriptional regulation in the nucleus and cytoplasm: study of mean time to threshold (MTT) and narrow escape problem

Messenger RNAs (mRNAs) can be repressed and degraded by small non-coding RNA molecules. In this paper, we formulate a coarsegrained Markov-chain description of the post-transcriptional regulation of mRNAs by either small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) or microRNAs (miRNAs). We calculate the probability of an mRNA escaping from its domain before it is repressed by siRNAs/miRNAs via cal- culation of the mean time to threshold: when the number of bound siRNAs/miRNAs exceeds a certain threshold value, the mRNA is irreversibly repressed. In some cases,the analysis can be reduced to counting certain paths in a reduced Markov model. We obtain explicit expressions when the small RNA bind irreversibly to the mRNA and we also discuss the reversible binding case. We apply our models to the study of RNA interference in the nucleus, examining the probability of mRNAs escaping via small nuclear pores before being degraded by siRNAs. Using the same modelling framework, we further investigate the effect of small, decoy RNAs (decoys) on the process of post-transcriptional regulation, by studying regulation of the tumor suppressor gene, PTEN : decoys are able to block binding sites on PTEN mRNAs, thereby educing the number of sites available to siRNAs/miRNAs and helping to protect it from repression. We calculate the probability of a cytoplasmic PTEN mRNA translocating to the endoplasmic reticulum before being repressed by miRNAs. We support our results with stochastic simulations

On the probability that the determinant of an nxn matrix over a finite field vanishe

An expression is derived for the probability that the determinant of an n x n matrix over a finite field vanishes; from this it is deduced that for a fixed field this probability tends to 1 as n tends to.

NMR relaxation study of disorder in the mixed system BP x GPI(1-x) and the low temperature transition from classical to quantum rotation

1H NMR spin-lattice relaxation time (T1) studies have been carried out in the temperature range 100 K to 4 K, at two Larmor frequencies 11.4 and 23.3 MHz, in the mixed system of betaine phosphate and glycine phosphite (BPxGPI(1-x)), to study the effects of disorder on the proton group dynamics. Analysis of T1 data indicates the presence of a number of inequivalent methyl groups and a gradual transition from classical reorientations to quantum tunneling rotations. At lower temperatures, microstructural disorder in the local environments of the methyl groups, result in a distribution in the activation energy (Ea) and the torsional energy gap (E01). For certain values of x, the magnetisation recovery shows biexponential behaviour at lower temperatures.

Proposed vehicle impact speed: Severe injury probability relationships for selected crash types

Speed is recognised as a key contributor to crash likelihood and severity, and to road safety performance in general. Its fundamental role has been recognised by making Safe Speeds one of the four pillars of the Safe System. In this context, impact speeds above which humans are likely to sustain fatal injuries have been accepted as a reference in many Safe System infrastructure policy and planning discussions. To date, there have been no proposed relationships for impact speeds above which humans are likely to sustain fatal or serious (severe) injury, a more relevant Safe System measure. A research project on Safe System intersection design required a critical review of published literature on the relationship between impact speed and probability of injury. This has led to a number of questions being raised about the origins, accuracy and appropriateness of the currently accepted impact speed–fatality probability relationships (Wramborg 2005) in many policy documents. The literature review identified alternative, more recent and more precise relationships derived from the US crash reconstruction databases (NASS/CDS). The paper proposes for discussion a set of alternative relationships between vehicle impact speed and probability of MAIS3+ (fatal and serious) injury for selected common crash types. Proposed Safe System critical impact speed values are also proposed for use in road infrastructure assessment. The paper presents the methodology and assumptions used in developing these relationships. It identifies further research needed to confirm and refine these relationships. Such relationships would form valuable inputs into future road safety policies in Australia and New Zealand.

Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in Western Queelsland

Researchers developing climate-based forecasts, workshops, software tools and information to aid grazier decisions undertook an evaluation study to enhance planning and benchmark impact. One hundred graziers in Western Queensland were randomly selected from 7 shires and surveyed by mail and telephone (43 respondents) to explore levels of knowledge and use of climate information, practices and information needs. We found 36% of respondents apply the Southern Oscillation Index to property decisions but 92% were unaware El Niño Southern Oscillation’s predictive signal in the region is greater for pasture growth than rainfall, suggesting they may not recognise the potential of pasture growth forecasts. Almost 75% of graziers consider they are conservative or risk averse in their attitude to managing their enterprise. Mail respondents (n= 20) if given a 68%, on average, probability of exceeding median rainfall forecast may change a decision; almost two-thirds vary stocking rate based on forage available, last year’s pasture growth or the Southern Oscillation Index; the balance maintain a constant stocking rate strategy; 90% have access to a computer; 75% to the internet and 95% have a fax. This paper presents findings of the study and draws comparisons with a similar study of 174 irrigators in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin (Aust. J. Exp. Ag. 44, 247-257). New insights and information gained are helping the team better understand client needs and plan, design and extend tools and information tailored to grazier knowledge, practice, information needs and preferences. Results have also provided a benchmark against which to measure project impact and have influenced the team to make important changes to their project planning, activities and methods for transferring technology tailored to grazier preferences.

An Adaptive Scheme for Learning the Probability Threshold in Pattern Recognition

The statistical minimum risk pattern recognition problem, when the classification costs are random variables of unknown statistics, is considered. Using medical diagnosis as a possible application, the problem of learning the optimal decision scheme is studied for a two-class twoaction case, as a first step. This reduces to the problem of learning the optimum threshold (for taking appropriate action) on the a posteriori probability of one class. A recursive procedure for updating an estimate of the threshold is proposed. The estimation procedure does not require the knowledge of actual class labels of the sample patterns in the design set. The adaptive scheme of using the present threshold estimate for taking action on the next sample is shown to converge, in probability, to the optimum. The results of a computer simulation study of three learning schemes demonstrate the theoretically predictable salient features of the adaptive scheme.