The valuation accuracy of multiples in mergers and acquisitions, and their association with firm misvaluation

This study explores the accuracy and valuation implications of the application of a comprehensive list of equity multiples in the takeover context. Motivating the study is the prevalent use of equity multiples in practice, the observed long-run underperformance of acquirers following takeovers, and the scarcity of multiplesbased research in the merger and acquisition setting. In exploring the application of equity multiples in this context three research questions are addressed: (1) how accurate are equity multiples (RQ1); which equity multiples are more accurate in valuing the firm (RQ2); and which equity multiples are associated with greater misvaluation of the firm (RQ3). Following a comprehensive review of the extant multiples-based literature it is hypothesised that the accuracy of multiples in estimating stock market prices in the takeover context will rank as follows (from best to worst): (1) forecasted earnings multiples, (2) multiples closer to bottom line earnings, (3) multiples based on Net Cash Flow from Operations (NCFO) and trading revenue. The relative inaccuracies in multiples are expected to flow through to equity misvaluation (as measured by the ratio of estimated market capitalisation to residual income value, or P/V). Accordingly, it is hypothesised that greater overvaluation will be exhibited for multiples based on Trading Revenue, NCFO, Book Value (BV) and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) versus multiples based on bottom line earnings; and that multiples based on Intrinsic Value will display the least overvaluation. The hypotheses are tested using a sample of 147 acquirers and 129 targets involved in Australian takeover transactions announced between 1990 and 2005. The results show that first, the majority of computed multiples examined exhibit valuation errors within 30 percent of stock market values. Second, and consistent with expectations, the results provide support for the superiority of multiples based on forecasted earnings in valuing targets and acquirers engaged in takeover transactions. Although a gradual improvement in estimating stock market values is not entirely evident when moving down the Income Statement, historical earnings multiples perform better than multiples based on Trading Revenue or NCFO. Third, while multiples based on forecasted earnings have the highest valuation accuracy they, along with Trading Revenue multiples for targets, produce the most overvalued valuations for acquirers and targets. Consistent with predictions, greater overvaluation is exhibited for multiples based on Trading Revenue for targets, and NCFO and EBITDA for both acquirers and targets. Finally, as expected, multiples based Intrinsic Value (along with BV) are associated with the least overvaluation. Given the widespread usage of valuation multiples in takeover contexts these findings offer a unique insight into their relative effectiveness. Importantly, the findings add to the growing body of valuation accuracy literature, especially within Australia, and should assist market participants to better understand the relative accuracy and misvaluation consequences of various equity multiples used in takeover documentation and assist them in subsequent investment decision making.

Identification of radiological alveolar pneumonia in children with high rates of hospitalized respiratory infections : Comparison of WHO-defined and pediatric pulmonologist diagnosis in the clinical context

Background A reliable standardized diagnosis of pneumonia in children has long been difficult to achieve. Clinical and radiological criteria have been developed by the World Health Organization (WHO), however, their generalizability to different populations is uncertain. We evaluated WHO defined chest radiograph (CXRs) confirmed alveolar pneumonia in the clinical context in Central Australian Aboriginal children, a high risk population, hospitalized with acute lower respiratory illness (ALRI). Methods CXRs in children (aged 1-60 months) hospitalized and treated with intravenous antibiotics for ALRI and enrolled in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of Vitamin A/Zinc supplementation were matched with data collected during a population-based study of WHO-defined primary endpoint pneumonia (WHO-EPC). These CXRs were reread by a pediatric pulmonologist (PP) and classified as pneumonia-PP when alveolar changes were present. Sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) for clinical presentations were compared between WHO-EPC and pneumonia-PP. Results Of the 147 episodes of hospitalized ALRI, WHO-EPC was significantly less commonly diagnosed in 40 (27.2%) compared to pneumonia-PP (difference 20.4%, 95% CI 9.6-31.2, P < 0.001). Clinical signs on admission were poor predictors for both pneumonia-PP and WHO-EPC; the sensitivities of clinical signs ranged from a high of 45% for tachypnea to 5% for fever + tachypnea + chest-indrawing. The PPV range was 40-20%, respectively. Higher PPVs were observed against the pediatric pulmonologist's diagnosis compared to WHO-EPC. Conclusions WHO-EPC underestimates alveolar consolidation in a clinical context. Its use in clinical practice or in research designed to inform clinical management in this population should be avoided. Pediatr Pulmonol. 2012; 47:386-392. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Advances in the systemic therapy of malignant pleural mesothelioma

Malignant pleural mesothelioma is an aggressive thoracic malignancy associated with exposure to asbestos, and its incidence is anticipated to increase during the first half of this century. Chemotherapy is the mainstay of treatment, yet sufficiently robust evidence to substantiate the current standard of care has emerged only in the past 5 years. This Review summarizes the evidence supporting the clinical activity of chemotherapy, discusses the use of end points for its assessment and examines the influence of clinical and biochemical prognostic factors on the natural history of malignant pleural mesothelioma. Early-phase clinical trials of second-line and novel agents are emerging from an increased understanding of mesothelioma cell biology. Coupled with high-quality translational research, such developments have real potential to improve the outlook of patients at a time of increasing incidence.

RNA silencing in plants: Yesterday, today, and tomorrow

RNA silencing has become a major focus of molecular biology and biomedical research around the world. This is highlighted by a simple PubMed search for “RNA silencing,” which retrieves almost 9,000 articles. Interest in gene silencing-related mechanisms stemmed from the early 1990s, when this phenomenon was first noted as a surprise observation by plant scientists during the course of plant transformation experiments, in which the introduction of a transgene into the genome led to the silencing of both the transgene and homologous endogenes. From these initial studies, plant biologists have continued to generate a wealth of information into not only gene silencing mechanisms but also the complexity of these biological pathways as well as revealing their multilevel interactions with one another. The plant biology community has also made significant advancements in exploiting RNA silencing as a powerful tool for gene function studies and crop improvements. In this article, we (1) review the rich history of gene silencing research and the knowledge it has generated into our understanding of this fundamental mechanism of gene regulation in plants; (2) describe examples of the current applications of RNA silencing in crop plants; and (3) discuss improvements in RNA silencing technology and its potential application in plant science.

Regulation of dormancy in barley by blue light and after-ripening : effects on abscisic acid and gibberellin metabolism

White light strongly promotes dormancy in freshly harvested cereal grains, whereas dark and after-ripening have the opposite effect. We have analyzed the interaction of light and after-ripening on abscisic acid (ABA) and gibberellin (GA) metabolism genes and dormancy in barley (Hordeum vulgare ‘Betzes’). Analysis of gene expression in imbibed barley grains shows that different ABA metabolism genes are targeted by white light and after-ripening. Of the genes examined, white light promotes the expression of an ABA biosynthetic gene, HvNCED1, in embryos. Consistent with this result, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays show that dormant grains imbibed under white light have higher embryo ABA content than grains imbibed in the dark. After-ripening has no effect on expression of ABA biosynthesis genes, but promotes expression of an ABA catabolism gene (HvABA8′OH1), a GA biosynthetic gene (HvGA3ox2), and a GA catabolic gene (HvGA2ox3) following imbibition. Blue light mimics the effects of white light on germination, ABA levels, and expression of GA and ABA metabolism genes. Red and far-red light have no effect on germination, ABA levels, or HvNCED1. RNA interference experiments in transgenic barley plants support a role of HvABA8′OH1 in dormancy release. Reduced HvABA8′OH1 expression in transgenic HvABA8′OH1 RNAi grains results in higher levels of ABA and increased dormancy compared to nontransgenic grains.

Sequence and identification of the barley yellow dwarf virus coat protein gene

The nucleotide sequence of the coat protein gene of barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV, PAV serotype) was determined, and the amino acid sequence was deduced. The open reading frame, encoding a protein of relative molecular mass (Mr) 22,047, was confirmed as the coat protein gene by comparison with amino acid sequences of tryptic peptides derived from dissociated virions. In addition, a fragment of this gene expressed in Escherichia coli produced a product which was recognized by antibodies prepared against purified BYDV virions. An overlapping reading frame encoding an Mr 17,147 protein is contained completely within the coat protein gene. © 1988.

Metastasis of ovarian cancer is mediated by kallikrein related peptidases

Ovarian cancer, in particular epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), is commonly diagnosed when the tumor has metastasized into the abdominal cavity with an accumulation of ascites fluid. Combining histopathology and genetic variations, EOC can be sub-grouped into Type-I and Type-II tumors, of which the latter are more aggressive and metastatic. Metastasis and chemoresistance are the key events associated with the tumor microenvironment that lead to a poor patient outcome. Kallikrein-related peptidases (KLKs) are aberrantly expressed in EOC, in particular, in the more metastatic Type-II tumors. KLKs are a family of 15 serine proteases that are expressed in diverse human tissues and involved in various patho-physiological processes. As extracellular enzymes, KLKs function in the hydrolysis of growth factors, proteases, cell membrane bound receptors, adhesion proteins, and cytokines initiating intracellular signaling pathways and their downstream events. High KLK levels are differentially associated with the prognosis of ovarian cancer patients, suggesting that they not only have application as biomarkers but also function in disease progression, and therefore are potential therapeutic targets. Recent studies have demonstrated the function of these proteases in promoting and/or suppressing the invasive behavior of ovarian cancer cells in metastasis in vitro and in vivo. Both conventional cell culture methods and three-dimensional platforms have been applied to mimic the ovarian cancer microenvironment of patients, such as the solid stromal matrix and ascites fluid. Here we summarize published studies to provide an overview of our understanding of the role of KLKs in EOC, and to lay the foundation for future research directions.

Consumer perceptions of trade show effectiveness : scale development and validation within a B2C context

Purpose This paper develops and estimates a model to measure consumer perceptions of trade show effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach Data were collected at three separate B2C trade shows. Study 1 (n=47) involved field interviews with data subjected to qualitative item generation and content analysis. Study 2 data (n=147) were subjected to exploratory factor analysis and item-total correlation to identify a preliminary factor structure for the effectiveness construct and to test for reliability. In Study 3 (n=592), confirmatory factor analysis was undertaken to more rigorously test the factor structure and generalise across industries. Validity testing was also performed. Findings A three-dimensional factor structure for assessing consumer visitors’ perceptions of trade show effectiveness was produced incorporating research, operational, and entertainment components. Research limitations/implications Data were collected in Australia and results may not generalise across cultural boundaries. Practical implications The resulting measurement model may be used as a reliable post-hoc diagnostic tool to identify areas of trade show effectiveness where specific performance improvements are needed. Results indicate that exhibitors and organisers of B2C trade shows should consider effectiveness as a multidimensional phenomenon with entertainment, product / industry research, and the facilitation of purchase decision-making processes and problem resolution being key objectives for consumer attendees. These elements of effectiveness should each be addressed by exhibitors and organisers in planning their displays and events. Originality/value This is the first study to provide an empirically valid model for assessing trade show effectiveness from the consumer visitor’s perspective.

Differences between first episode schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder

Background: The diagnostic and clinical overlap between schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder is an important nosological issue in psychiatry that is yet to be resolved. The aim of this study was to compare the clinical and functional characteristics of an epidemiological treated cohort of first episode patients with an 18-month discharge diagnosis of schizophrenia (FES) or schizoaffective disorder (FESA). Methods: This study was part of the larger First Episode Psychosis Outcome Study (FEPOS) which involved a medical file audit study of all 786 patients treated at the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre between 1998 and 2000. Of this cohort, 283 patients had a 18-month discharge diagnosis of FES and 64 had a diagnosis of FESA. DSM-IV diagnoses, clinical and functional ratings were derived and validated by two consultant psychiatrists. Results: Compared to FES patients, those with FESA were significantly more likely to have a later age of onset (p=.004), longer prodrome (p=.020), and a longer duration of untreated psychosis (p<.001). At service entry, FESA patients presented with a higher illness severity (p=.020), largely due to the presence of more severe manic symptoms (p<.001). FESA patients also had a greater number of subsequent inpatient admissions (p=.017), had more severe depressive symptoms (p=.011), and higher levels of functioning at discharge. Discussion: The findings support the notion that these might be considered two discernable disorders; however, further research is required to ascertain the ways and extent to which these disorders are discriminable at presentation and over time.

Optimisation of lateral load-resisting systems in composite high-rise buildings

This research is carried out by using finite element modelling of building prototypes with three different layouts (rectangular, octagonal and L-shaped) for three different heights (98.0 m, 147.0 m and 199.5 m) for the optimization of lateral load-resisting systems in composite high-rise buildings. Variations of lateral bracings (different number and varied placement along model height of belt-truss and outrigger floors) with RCC (reinforced cement concrete) core wall are used in composite high-rise building models. Prototypes of composite buildings are analysed for dynamic wind and seismic loads. The effects on serviceability (deflection and frequency) of models are studied and conclusions are deduced.

Understanding the abnormal brain activity in epilepsy as a potential predictor of the onset of an epileptic seizure

The Brain Research Institute (BRI) uses various types of indirect measurements, including EEG and fMRI, to understand and assess brain activity and function. As well as the recovery of generic information about brain function, research also focuses on the utilisation of such data and understanding to study the initiation, dynamics, spread and suppression of epileptic seizures. To assist with the future focussing of this aspect of their research, the BRI asked the MISG 2010 participants to examine how the available EEG and fMRI data and current knowledge about epilepsy should be analysed and interpreted to yield an enhanced understanding about brain activity occurring before, at commencement of, during, and after a seizure. Though the deliberations of the study group were wide ranging in terms of the related matters considered and discussed, considerable progress was made with the following three aspects. (1) The science behind brain activity investigations depends crucially on the quality of the analysis and interpretation of, as well as the recovery of information from, EEG and fMRI measurements. A number of specific methodologies were discussed and formalised, including independent component analysis, principal component analysis, profile monitoring and change point analysis (hidden Markov modelling, time series analysis, discontinuity identification). (2) Even though EEG measurements accurately and very sensitively record the onset of an epileptic event or seizure, they are, from the perspective of understanding the internal initiation and localisation, of limited utility. They only record neuronal activity in the cortical (surface layer) neurons of the brain, which is a direct reflection of the type of electrical activity they have been designed to record. 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Port-Hamiltonian control of fully actuated underwater vehicles

This chapter presents a novel control strategy for trajectory tracking of underwater marine vehicles that are designed using port-Hamiltonian theory. A model for neutrally buoyant underwater vehicles is formulated as a PHS, and then the tracking controller is designed for the horizontal plane-surge, sway and yaw. The control design is done by formulating the error dynamics as a set-point regulation port-Hamiltonian control problem. The control design is formulated in two steps. In the first step, a static-feedback tracking controller is designed, and the second step integral action is added. The global asymptotic stability of the closed loop system is proved and the performance of the controller is illustrated using a model of an open-frame offshore underwater vehicle.

‘Redstone is like electricity’: Children's performative representations in and around Minecraft

In this article, we investigate eight and nine year old girls’ school and home use of the popular game Minecraft and the ways in which the girls ‘bring themselves into being’ through talk and digital production in the social spaces of the classroom and within the game’s multiplayer online world. This work was conducted as part of a broader digital games in education project involving primary and secondary school-aged students in Australia and focuses specifically on data collected from an all-girls primary school in Brisbane. We investigate the processes of identity construction that occur as the girls undertake practices of curatorship (Potter, 2012) to display their knowledge of Minecraft through discussion of the game, both ‘in world’ and in face-to-face interactions, and as they assemble resources within and around the game to design, build and display their creations and share stories about their game play. The article begins with a consideration of recent scholarship focussing on children, learning and digital culture and literacy practices before explaining how Minecraft is, in many ways, an exemplary instance of a digital game that promotes and enables complex practices of digital participation. We then introduce the concepts of performativity and recognition (Butler 1990, 2004, 2005) which, we argue, provide productive ways to theorise identity work within affinity groups. The article then outlines some background to the research project and our methodology before providing analysis of the data in the second half of the article. We conclude by outlining the implications of our investigation for the conceptualisation of learning spaces as affinity groups and for considering digital participation as curatorship.

Ship roll damping control

The technical feasibility of roll motion control devices has been amply demonstrated for over 100 years. Performance, however, can still fall short of expectations because of difficulties associated with control system designs, which have proven to be far from trivial due to fundamental performance limitations and large variations of the spectral characteristics of wave-induced roll motion. This tutorial paper presents an account of the development of various ship roll motion control systems together with the challenges associated with their design. It discusses the assessment of performance and the applicability of different mathematical models, and it surveys the control methods that have been implemented and validated with full scale experiments. The paper also presents an outlook on what are believed to be potential areas of research within this topic.

Rational design of artificial cellular niches for tissue engineering

Tissue Engineering is a promising emerging field that studies the intrinsic regenerative potential of the human body and uses it to restore functionality of damaged organs or tissues unable of self-healing due to illness or ageing. In order to achieve regeneration using Tissue Engineering strategies, it is first necessary to study the properties of the native tissue and determine the cause of tissue failure; second, to identify an optimum population of cells capable of restoring its functionality; and third, to design and manufacture a cellular microenvironment in which those specific cells are directed towards the desired cellular functions. The design of the artificial cellular niche has a tremendous importance, because cells will feel and respond to both its biochemical and biophysical properties very differently. In particular, the artificial niche will act as a physical scaffold for the cells, allowing their three-dimensional spatial organization; also, it will provide mechanical stability to the artificial construct; and finally, it will supply biochemical and mechanical cues to control cellular growth, migration, differentiation and synthesis of natural extracellular matrix. During the last decades, many scientists have made great contributions to the field of Tissue Engineering. Even though this research has frequently been accompanied by vast investments during extended periods of time, yet too often these efforts have not been enough to translate the advances into new clinical therapies. More and more scientists in this field are aware of the need of rational experimental designs before carrying out complex, expensive and time-consuming in vitro and in vivo trials. This review highlights the importance of computer modeling and novel biofabrication techniques as critical key players for a rational design of artificial cellular niches in Tissue Engineering.