The association between perception of health during pregnancy and the risk of cardiovascular disease: A prospective study

There is some evidence that self-rated perceptions of health are predictive of objective health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, and mortality. The objective of this study was to examine the prospective association between perceptions of health during pregnancy and cardiovascular risk factors of mothers 21 years after the pregnancy. Data used were from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a community-based prospective birth cohort study begun in Brisbane, Australia, in 1981. Logistic regression analyses were conducted. Data were available for 3692 women. Women who perceived themselves as not having a straight forward pregnancy had twice the odds (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1–3.8) of being diagnosed with heart disease 21 years after the pregnancy when compared with women with a straight forward pregnancy (event rate of 5.2 versus 2.6%). Women who experienced complications (other than serious pregnancy complications) during their pregnancy were also at 30% increased odds (adjusted OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0–1.6) of having hypertension 21years later (event rate of 25.7 versus 20%). As a whole, our study sug- gests that pregnant women who perceived that they had complications and did not have a straight forward preg- nancy were likely to experience poorer cardiovascular outcomes 21years after that pregnancy.

WinBUGS code to run a network meta-analysis

WinBUGS code and data to reproduce our network meta-analysis from "Control strategies to prevent total hip replacement-related infections: a systematic review and mixed treatment comparison" published in BMJ Open.

Sleep and self-regulation from birth to 7 years: A retrospective study of children with and without ADHD at 8-9 years

Objective To examine mean level differences, and longitudinal and reciprocal relations among behavioral sleep problems, emotional dysregulation, and attentional regulation across early childhood for children with and without ADHD at 8-9 years. Method This study used data from Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC) – Infant Cohort (n = 4109 analyzed). Children with and without ADHD were identified at age 8-9 years via parent-report of ADHD diagnosis and the 5-item Inattention-Hyperactivity subscale from the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Maternal report of child sleep problems and self-regulation was collected at 0-1, 2-3, 4-5 and 6-7 years of age. ANOVA was used to compare mean level differences in sleep problems, emotional and attentional regulation by ADHD group. Longitudinal structural equation modeling examined the relations among sleep and self-regulation across time in children with and without ADHD. Results Children with ADHD had persistently elevated levels of sleep problems (from infancy) and emotional and attentional dysregulation compared to controls (from 2-3 years of age). Sleep problems, emotional dysregulation, and attentional regulation were stable over time for both groups. Sleep problems were associated with greater emotional dysregulation two years later from 2-3 years of age for both groups, which in turn was associated with poorer attentional regulation. There was no direct relationship between sleep problems and later attentional regulation. Conclusion Sleep problems in children with and without ADHD are associated with emotional dysregulation, which in turn contributes to poorer attentional functioning. This study highlights the importance of assessing and managing sleep problems in young children.

Making the most of spatial information in health: A tutorial in Bayesian disease mapping for areal data

Disease maps are effective tools for explaining and predicting patterns of disease outcomes across geographical space, identifying areas of potentially elevated risk, and formulating and validating aetiological hypotheses for a disease. Bayesian models have become a standard approach to disease mapping in recent decades. This article aims to provide a basic understanding of the key concepts involved in Bayesian disease mapping methods for areal data. It is anticipated that this will help in interpretation of published maps, and provide a useful starting point for anyone interested in running disease mapping methods for areal data. The article provides detailed motivation and descriptions on disease mapping methods by explaining the concepts, defining the technical terms, and illustrating the utility of disease mapping for epidemiological research by demonstrating various ways of visualising model outputs using a case study. The target audience includes spatial scientists in health and other fields, policy or decision makers, health geographers, spatial analysts, public health professionals, and epidemiologists.

Effect of temperature and precipitation on salmonellosis cases in South-East Queensland, Australia: An observational study

Objective Foodborne illnesses in Australia, including salmonellosis, are estimated to cost over $A1.25 billion annually. The weather has been identified as being influential on salmonellosis incidence, as cases increase during summer, however time series modelling of salmonellosis is challenging because outbreaks cause strong autocorrelation. This study assesses whether switching models is an improved method of estimating weather–salmonellosis associations. Design We analysed weather and salmonellosis in South-East Queensland between 2004 and 2013 using 2 common regression models and a switching model, each with 21-day lags for temperature and precipitation. Results The switching model best fit the data, as judged by its substantial improvement in deviance information criterion over the regression models, less autocorrelated residuals and control of seasonality. The switching model estimated a 5°C increase in mean temperature and 10 mm precipitation were associated with increases in salmonellosis cases of 45.4% (95% CrI 40.4%, 50.5%) and 24.1% (95% CrI 17.0%, 31.6%), respectively. Conclusions Switching models improve on traditional time series models in quantifying weather–salmonellosis associations. A better understanding of how temperature and precipitation influence salmonellosis may identify where interventions can be made to lower the health and economic costs of salmonellosis.

Scoping study for a national survey of the prevalence of child abuse and neglect

This is a report produced as a result of a study commissioned by the Australian Government Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse.

Mapping the risk of soil-transmitted helminthic infections in the Philippines

Background In order to increase the efficient allocation of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) disease control resources in the Philippines, we aimed to describe for the first time the spatial variation in the prevalence of A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and hookworm across the country, quantify the association between the physical environment and spatial variation of STH infection and develop predictive risk maps for each infection. Methodology/Principal Findings Data on STH infection from 35,573 individuals across the country were geolocated at the barangay level and included in the analysis. The analysis was stratified geographically in two major regions: 1) Luzon and the Visayas and 2) Mindanao. Bayesian geostatistical models of STH prevalence were developed, including age and sex of individuals and environmental variables (rainfall, land surface temperature and distance to inland water bodies) as predictors, and diagnostic uncertainty was incorporated. The role of environmental variables was different between regions of the Philippines. This analysis revealed that while A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura infections were widespread and highly endemic, hookworm infections were more circumscribed to smaller foci in the Visayas and Mindanao. Conclusions/Significance This analysis revealed significant spatial variation in STH infection prevalence within provinces of the Philippines. This suggests that a spatially targeted approach to STH interventions, including mass drug administration, is warranted. When financially possible, additional STH surveys should be prioritized to high-risk areas identified by our study in Luzon.

Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

How does mental health status relate to accessibility and remoteness?

Objective: To determine whether mental illness is associated with accessibility and remoteness. Design: A cross-sectional, population-based, computer-assisted telephone interview survey, stratified by Accessibility and Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA) categories. Setting: Secondary analysis of data collected from 2545 South Australian adults in October and November 2000. Outcome measures: Psychological distress and depression as determined by the Kessler 10 Psychological Distress Scale, the SF-12 measure of health status, and self-reported mental illness diagnosed by a doctor in the previous 12 months. Results: Overall, mental illness prevalence estimates were similar using the three measures of psychological distress (10.5%), clinical depression (12.9%) and self-reported mental health problem (12.7%). For each measure, there was no statistically significant variation in prevalence across ARIA categories, except for a lower than expected prevalence of depression (7.7%) in the accessible category. There was no trend suggesting higher levels of mental illness among residents of rural and remote regions. Conclusions: The prevalence rates of psychological distress, depression and self-reported mental illness are high. However, we found no evidence that the prevalence of these conditions varies substantially across ARIA categories in South Australia. This finding may challenge existing stereotypes about higher levels of mental illness outside metropolitan Australia.

Effects of reduction in heroin supply on injecting drug use: analysis of data from needle and syringe programmes

n early 2001 there was a dramatic decline in the availability of heroin in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, where previously heroin had been readily available at a low price and high purity.1 The decline was confirmed by Australia's strategic early warning system, which revealed a reduction in heroin supply across Australia and a considerable increase in price,2 particularly from January to April 2001. This "heroin shortage" provided a natural experiment in which to examine the effect of substantial changes in price and availability on injecting drug use and its associated harms in Australia's largest heroin market,2 a setting in which harm reduction strategies were widely used. Publicly funded needle and syringe programmes were introduced to Australia in 1987, and methadone maintenance programmes, which were established in the 1970s, were significantly expanded in 1985 and again in 1999.

Cannabis use and psychotic disorders: an update

This paper evaluates three hypotheses about the relationship between cannabis use and psychosis in the light of recent evidence from prospective epidemiological studies. These are that: ( 1) cannabis use causes a psychotic disorder that would not have occurred in the absence of cannabis use; ( 2) that cannabis use may precipitate schizophrenia or exacerbate its symptoms; and ( 3) that cannabis use may exacerbate the symptoms of psychosis. There is limited support for the first hypothesis. As a consequence of recent prospective studies, there is now stronger support for the second hypothesis. Four recent prospective studies in three countries have found relationships between the frequency with which cannabis had been used and the risk of receiving a diagnosis of schizophrenia or of reporting psychotic symptoms. These relationships are stronger in people with a history of psychotic symptoms and they have persisted after adjustment for potentially confounding variables. The absence of any change in the incidence of schizophrenia during the three decades in which cannabis use in Australia has increased makes it unlikely that cannabis use can produce psychoses that would not have occurred in its absence. It seems more likely that cannabis use can precipitate schizophrenia in vulnerable individuals. There is also reasonable evidence for the third hypothesis that cannabis use exacerbates psychosis.

Community perceptions of adequate levels and reasons for skin protection

In this study the authors addressed whether or not community members use relevant risk factors to determine an appropriate level of skin protection behavior in the prevention of skin cancer. The authors conducted a postal survey with a community sample of 3,600 Queensland residents that they randomly selected from the Commonwealth electoral roll. The predictors of perceptions of doing enough skin protection included intrapersonal, social, and attitudinal influences. People protected themselves from the sun primarily out of a desire for future good health and on other occasions did not protect themselves from the sun because they were not out there long enough to get burnt. The predictors of perceptions of doing enough skin protection indicated that participants were aware of relevant risk factors. The main reasons that people protect themselves from the sun suggest that they are acting on many health promotion messages. However, skin cancer prevention programs need to move beyond increasing awareness and knowledge of the disease to providing a supportive environment and enhancing individual skills. Health promotion campaigns could reinforce appropriate risk assessment and shape an individual's decision about how much sun protection is needed.

The impact of changes to heroin supply on blood-borne virus notifications and injecting related harms in New South Wales, Australia

Background: In early 2001 Australia experienced a sudden and unexpected disruption to heroin availability, know as the 'heroin shortage'. This 'shortage has been linked to a decrease in needle and syringe output and therefore possibly a reduction in injecting drug use. We aimed to examine changes, if any, in blood-borne viral infections and presentations for injecting related problems related to injecting drug use following the reduction heroin availability in Australia, in the context of widespread harm reduction measures. Methods: Time series analysis of State level databases on HIV, hepatitis B, hepatitis C notifications and hospital and emergency department data. Examination of changes in HIV, hepatitis B, hepatitis C notifications and hospital and emergency department admissions for injection-related problems following the onset of the heroin shortage; non-parametric curve-fitting of number of hepatitis C notifications among those aged 15 - 19 years. Results: There were no changes observed in hospital visits for injection-related problems. There was no change related to the onset heroin shortage in the number of hepatitis C notifications among persons aged 15 - 19 years, but HCV notifications have subsequently decreased in this group. No change occurred in HIV and hepatitis B notifications. Conclusion: A marked reduction in heroin supply resulted in no increase in injection-related harm at the community level. However, a delayed decrease in HCV notifications among young people may be related. These changes occurred in a setting with widespread, publicly funded harm reduction initiatives.

The impact of a reduction in drug supply on demand for and compliance with treatment for drug dependence

Background: In early 2001, Australia experienced a sudden, dramatic and;sustained decrease in heroin availability that was accompanied by sharp increases in price and decreases in street level purity-the so-called heroin shortage. These unprecedented changes occurred in a context of widespread treatment availability, which made it possible for the first time to examine the impact of a sharp reduction in heroin supply in New South Wales (NSW) on entry to and adherence with treatment for heroin dependence. Given the evidence of drug substitution by some users. the current paper also examines the effects of the shortage on entry to treatment for other forms of drug dependence. Methods: Interrupted time-series analysis of the number of persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy and other treatment modalities in NSW for heroin dependence and for the treatment for other types of drug dependence. Findings: The heroin shortage was associated with a reduction in the number of younger persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy. There was a dramatic decrease in the number of persons entering heroin withdrawal or assessment only treatment episodes. There appear to have been small improvements in adherence to and retention in heroin treatment after the reduction in heroin supply. Relatively small increases were observed in numbers being treated for cocaine dependence. Conclusions: In the context of good treatment provision, a reduction in heroin supply appeared to produce modest improvements in intermediate outcomes. Supply and demand reduction measures, when both are implemented successfully, may be complementary. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.