Forecasting annual inflation with seasonal monthly data: using levels versus logs of the underlying price index

This paper investigates whether using natural logarithms (logs) of price indices for forecasting inflation rates is preferable to employing the original series. Univariate forecasts for annual inflation rates for a number of European countries and the USA based on monthly seasonal consumer price indices are considered. Stochastic seasonality and deterministic seasonality models are used. In many cases, the forecasts based on the original variables result in substantially smaller root mean squared errors than models based on logs. In turn, if forecasts based on logs are superior, the gains are typically small. This outcome sheds doubt on the common practice in the academic literature to forecast inflation rates based on differences of logs.

Characterizing typographic expertise: do we process typefaces like faces?

Studies of face recognition and discrimination provide a rich source of data and debate on the nature of their processing, in particular through using inverted faces. This study draws parallels between the features of typefaces and faces, as letters share a basic configuration, regardless of typeface, that could be seen as similar to faces. Typeface discrimination is compared using paragraphs of upright letters and inverted letters at three viewing durations. Based on previously reported effects of expertise, the prediction that designers would be less accurate when letters are inverted, whereas nondesigners would have similar performance in both orientations, was confirmed. A proposal is made as to which spatial relations between typeface components constitute holistic and configural processing, posited as the basis for better discrimination of the typefaces of upright letters. Such processing may characterize designers’ perceptual abilities, acquired through training.

Accounting for the economic risk, caused by variation in disease severity, in fungicide dose decisions: exemplified for Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat

A method is presented to calculate economic optimum fungicide doses accounting for the risk-aversion of growers responding to variability in disease severity between crops. Simple dose-response and disease-yield loss functions are used to estimate net disease-related costs (fungicide cost, plus disease-induced yield loss) as a function of dose and untreated severity. With fairly general assumptions about the shapes of the probability distribution of disease severity and the other functions involved, we show that a choice of fungicide dose which minimises net costs on average across seasons results in occasional large net costs caused by inadequate control in high disease seasons. This may be unacceptable to a grower with limited capital. A risk-averse grower can choose to reduce the size and frequency of such losses by applying a higher dose as insurance. For example, a grower may decide to accept ‘high loss’ years one year in ten or one year in twenty (i.e. specifying a proportion of years in which disease severity and net costs will be above a specified level). Our analysis shows that taking into account disease severity variation and risk-aversion will usually increase the dose applied by an economically rational grower. The analysis is illustrated with data on septoria tritici leaf blotch of wheat caused by Mycosphaerella graminicola. Observations from untreated field plots at sites across England over three years were used to estimate the probability distribution of disease severities at mid-grain filling. In the absence of a fully reliable disease forecasting scheme, reducing the frequency of ‘high loss’ years requires substantially higher doses to be applied to all crops. Disease resistant cultivars reduce both the optimal dose at all levels of risk and the disease-related costs at all doses.

Sub-surface terahertz imaging through uneven surfaces: visualizing Neolithic wall paintings in Çatalhöyük

Pulsed terahertz imaging is being developed as a technique to image obscured mural paintings. Due to significant advances in terahertz technology, portable systems are now capable of operating in unregulated environments and this has prompted their use on archaeological excavations. August 2011 saw the first use of pulsed terahertz imaging at the archaeological site of Çatalhöyük, Turkey, where mural paintings dating from the Neolithic period are continuously being uncovered by archaeologists. In these particular paintings the paint is applied onto an uneven surface, and then covered by an equally uneven surface. Traditional terahertz data analysis has proven unsuccessful at sub-surface imaging of these paintings due to the effect of these uneven surfaces. For the first time, an image processing technique is presented, based around Gaussian beam-mode coupling, which enables the visualization of the obscured painting.

Terahertz deconvolution

The ability to retrieve information from different layers within a stratified sample using terahertz pulsed reflection imaging and spectroscopy has traditionally been resolution limited by the pulse width available. In this paper, a deconvolution algorithm is presented which circumvents this resolution limit, enabling deep sub-wavelength and sub-pulse width depth resolution. The algorithm is explained through theoretical investigation, and demonstrated by reconstructing signals reflected from boundaries in stratified materials that cannot be resolved directly from the unprocessed time-domain reflection signal. Furthermore, the deconvolution technique has been used to recreate sub-surface images from a stratified sample: imaging the reverse side of a piece of paper.

Predicting outcomes following cognitive behavior therapy in child anxiety disorders: the influence of genetic, demographic and clinical information

Background. Within a therapeutic gene by environment (GxE) framework, we recently demonstrated that variation in the Serotonin Transporter Promoter Polymorphism; 5HTTLPR and marker rs6330 in Nerve Growth Factor gene; NGF is associated with poorer outcomes following cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for child anxiety disorders. The aim of this study was to explore one potential means of extending the translational reach of G×E data in a way that may be clinically informative. We describe a ‘risk-index’ approach combining genetic, demographic and clinical data and test its ability to predict diagnostic outcome following CBT in anxious children. Method. DNA and clinical data were collected from 384 children with a primary anxiety disorder undergoing CBT. We tested our risk model in five cross-validation training sets. Results. In predicting treatment outcome, six variables had a minimum mean beta value of 0.5: 5HTTLPR, NGF rs6330, gender, primary anxiety severity, comorbid mood disorder and comorbid externalising disorder. A risk index (range 0-8) constructed from these variables had moderate predictive ability (AUC = .62-.69) in this study. Children scoring high on this index (5-8) were approximately three times as likely to retain their primary anxiety disorder at follow-up as compared to those children scoring 2 or less. Conclusion. Significant genetic, demographic and clinical predictors of outcome following CBT for anxiety-disordered children were identified. Combining these predictors within a risk-index could be used to identify which children are less likely to be diagnosis free following CBT alone or thus require longer or enhanced treatment. The ‘risk-index’ approach represents one means of harnessing the translational potential of G×E data.

Technical Note: The normal quantile transformation and its application in a flood forecasting system.

The Normal Quantile Transform (NQT) has been used in many hydrological and meteorological applications in order to make the Cumulated Distribution Function (CDF) of the observed, simulated and forecast river discharge, water level or precipitation data Gaussian. It is also the heart of the meta-Gaussian model for assessing the total predictive uncertainty of the Hydrological Uncertainty Processor (HUP) developed by Krzysztofowicz. In the field of geo-statistics this transformation is better known as the Normal-Score Transform. In this paper some possible problems caused by small sample sizes when applying the NQT in flood forecasting systems will be discussed and a novel way to solve the problem will be outlined by combining extreme value analysis and non-parametric regression methods. The method will be illustrated by examples of hydrological stream-flow forecasts.

Multi-site evaluation of an urban land-surface model: intra-urban heterogeneity, seasonality and parameter complexity requirements

An extensive off-line evaluation of the Noah/Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (Noah/SLUCM) urban land-surface model is presented using data from 15 sites to assess (1) the ability of the scheme to reproduce the surface energy balance observed in a range of urban environments, including seasonal changes, and (2) the impact of increasing complexity of input parameter information. Model performance is found to be most dependent on representation of vegetated surface area cover; refinement of other parameter values leads to smaller improvements. Model biases in net all-wave radiation and trade-offs between turbulent heat fluxes are highlighted using an optimization algorithm. Here we use the Urban Zones to characterize Energy partitioning (UZE) as the basis to assign default SLUCM parameter values. A methodology (FRAISE) to assign sites (or areas) to one of these categories based on surface characteristics is evaluated. Using three urban sites from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment (BUBBLE) dataset, an independent evaluation of the model performance with the parameter values representative of each class is performed. The scheme copes well with both seasonal changes in the surface characteristics and intra-urban heterogeneities in energy flux partitioning, with RMSE performance comparable to similar state-of-the-art models for all fluxes, sites and seasons. The potential of the methodology for high-resolution atmospheric modelling application using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is highlighted. This analysis supports the recommendations that (1) three classes are appropriate to characterize the urban environment, and (2) that the parameter values identified should be adopted as default values in WRF.

Spectral design of temperature-invariant narrow bandpass filters for the mid-infrared

The ability of narrow bandpass filters to discriminate wavelengths between closely-separated gas absorption lines is crucial in many areas of infrared spectroscopy. As improvements to the sensitivity of infrared detectors enables operation in uncontrolled high-temperature environments, this imposes demands on the explicit bandpass design to provide temperature-invariant behavior. The unique negative temperature coefficient (dn/dT<0) of Lead-based (Pb) salts, in combination with dielectric materials enable bandpass filters with exclusive immunity to shifts in wavelength with temperature. This paper presents the results of an investigation into the interdependence between multilayer bandpass design and optical materials together with a review on invariance at elevated temperatures.

Determination of the embedded thermo-optical expansion coefficients of PbTe and ZnSe thin film infrared multilayers

This paper reports the first derived thermo-optical properties for vacuum deposited infrared thin films embedded in multilayers. These properties were extracted from the temperature-dependence of manufactured narrow bandpass filters across the 4-17 µm mid-infrared wavelength region. Using a repository of spaceflight multi-cavity bandpass filters, the thermo-optical expansion coefficients of PbTe and ZnSe were determined across an elevated temperature range 20-160 ºC. Embedded ZnSe films showed thermo-optical properties similar to reported bulk values, whilst the embedded PbTe films of lower optical density, deviate from reference literature sources. Detailed knowledge of derived coefficients is essential to the multilayer design of temperature-invariant narrow bandpass filters for use in non-cooled infrared detection systems. We further present manufacture of the first reported temperature-invariant multi-cavity narrow bandpass filter utilizing PbS chalcogenide layer material.

Optimizing mixing during the sponge cake manufacturing process

Sponge cakes have traditionally been manufactured using multistage mixing methods to enhance potential foam formation by the eggs. Today, use of all-in (single-stage) mixing methods is superseding multistage methods for large-scale batter preparation to reduce costs and production time. In this study, multistage and all-in mixing procedures and three final high-speed mixing times (3, 5, and 15 min) for sponge cake production were tested to optimize a mixing method for pilot-scale research. Mixing for 3 min produced batters with higher relative density values than did longer mixing times. These batters generated well-aerated cakes with high volume and low hardness. In contrast, after 5 and 15 min of high-speed mixing, batters with lower relative density and higher viscosity values were produced. Although higher bubble incorporation and retention were observed, longer mixing times produced better developed gluten networks, which stiffened the batters and inhibited bubble expansion during mixing. As a result, these batters did not expand properly and produced cakes with low volume, dense crumb, and high hardness values. Results for all-in mixing were similar to those for the multistage mixing procedure in terms of the physical properties of batters and cakes (i.e., relative density, elastic moduli, volume, total cell area, hardness, etc.). These results suggest the all-in mixing procedure with a final high-speed mixing time of 3 min is an appropriate mixing method for pilot-scale sponge cake production. The advantages of this method are reduced energy costs and production time.

Physical and sensory properties of regular and reduced-fat pound cakes with added amaranth flour

The sum of wheat flour and corn starch was replaced by 10, 20, or 30% whole amaranth flour in both conventional (C) and reduced fat (RF) pound cakes. and the effects on physical and sensory properties of the cakes were investigated. RF presented 33% fat reduction. The increasing amaranth levels darkened crust and crumb of cakes, which decreased color acceptability. Fresh amaranth-containing cakes had similar texture characteristics to (he controls, evaluated both instrumentally and sensorially. Sensory evaluation revealed that replacement by 30% amaranth flour decreased C cakes overall acceptability scores, clue to its lower specific volume and darker color. Amaranth flour levels had no significant effect on overall acceptability of RF cakes. Hence, the sum of wheat flour and corn starch could be successfully replaced by up to 20% amaranth flour in C and up to 30% in RF pound cakes without negatively affecting sensory quality in fresh cakes. Moisture losses for all the cakes were similar, approximate to 1% per day during storage. After six days of storage, both C and RF amaranth-containing cakes had higher hardness and chewiness values than control cakes. Further experiments involving sensory evaluation during storage are necessary to determine the exact limit of amaranth flour replacement.

Natural antimicrobial ingredients incorporated in biodegradable films based on cassava starch

Biodegradable films based on cassava starch and with addition of natural antimicrobial ingredients were prepared using the casting technique. The tensile properties tensile strength (TS) [MPa] and percent elongation (E) at break [%] and the water vapor transmission (WVT) of the biodegradable films were evaluated and compared with the control (without antimicrobial ingredients). The evaluation of the Colony Forming Units per gram [CFU/g] of pan bread slices packed with the best biodegradable films, in terms of packaging performance, was also determined. The addition onto the matrix of only clove and cinnamon powders could reduce the films WVT when compared to the control, however TS and E were lower than the control and the effect of cinnamon was milder regarding this property. Since water activity of the pan bread slices packed with the biodegradable films increased considerably during the storage period, the antimicrobial effect could not be clearly determined. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Influence of Fluid Concentration on the Elevation of Boiling Point of Blackberry Juice

The rise in boiling point of blackberry juice was experimentally measured at soluble solids concentrations in the range of 9.4 to 58.4Brix and pressures between 4.9 103 and 9.0 104 Pa (abs.). Different approaches to representing experimental data, including the Duhring`s rule, a model similar to Antoine equation and other empirical models proposed in the literature were tested. In the range of 9.4 to 33.6Brix, the rise in boiling point was nearly independent of pressure, varying only with juice concentration. Considerable deviations of this behavior began to occur at concentrations higher than 39.1Brix. Experimental data could be best predicted by adjusting an empirical model, which consists of a single equation that takes into account the dependence of rise in boiling point on pressure and concentration.

LAURENCIA MARILZAE (CERAMIALES, RHODOPHYTA) FROM THE MEXICAN CARIBBEAN: A NEW RECORD FOR THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC

Laurencia marilzae Gil-Rodriguez, Senties & MT Fujii is recorded for the first time for the tropical western Atlantic Ocean, occurring in Isla Mujeres, Quintana Roo, Mexican Caribbean. The specimens were collected in November 2008 and June 2009, growing epilithically in the lower intertidal zone on moderately exposed rocky shores. This species is characterized by its distinctive yellow-orange color in the natural environment, four pericentral cells per vegetative axial segment, the presence of secondary pit-connections between adjacent cortical cells, which are markedly projecting at the apices, and by the presence of one ""corp en cerise"" per cell in all cells of the thallus: cortical, medullary, including pericentral and axial cells, and trichoblasts. Morphological similarities and molecular data support the determination of this material as L. marilzae. The present study expands the geographical distribution of L. marilzae to the Caribbean Sea in the tropical Western Atlantic Ocean.