Have greenhouse gases intensified the contrast between wet and dry regions?

While changes in land precipitation during the last 50 years have been attributed in part to human influences, results vary by season, are affected by data uncertainty and do not account for changes over ocean. One of the more physically robust responses of the water cycle to warming is the expected amplification of existing patterns of precipitation minus evaporation. Here, precipitation changes in wet and dry regions are analyzed from satellite data for 1988–2010, covering land and ocean. We derive fingerprints for the expected change from climate model simulations that separately track changes in wet and dry regions. The simulations used are driven with anthropogenic and natural forcings combined, and greenhouse gas forcing or natural forcing only. Results of detection and attribution analysis show that the fingerprint of combined external forcing is detectable in observations and that this intensification of the water cycle is partly attributable to greenhouse gas forcing.

The sensitivity of the tropical circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution

The dependence of the annual mean tropical precipitation on horizontal resolution is investigated in the atmospheric version of the Hadley Centre General Environment Model (HadGEM1). Reducing the grid spacing from about 350 km to 110 km improves the precipitation distribution in most of the tropics. In particular, characteristic dry biases over South and Southeast Asia including the Maritime Continent as well as wet biases over the western tropical oceans are reduced. The annual-mean precipitation bias is reduced by about one third over the Maritime Continent and the neighbouring ocean basins associated with it via the Walker circulation. Sensitivity experiments show that much of the improvement with resolution in the Maritime Continent region is due to the specification of better resolved surface boundary conditions (land fraction, soil and vegetation parameters) at the higher resolution. It is shown that in particular the formulation of the coastal tiling scheme may cause resolution sensitivity of the mean simulated climate. The improvement in the tropical mean precipitation in this region is not primarily associated with the better representation of orography at the higher resolution, nor with changes in the eddy transport of moisture. Sizeable sensitivity to changes in the surface fields may be one of the reasons for the large variation of the mean tropical precipitation distribution seen across climate models.

Pollen-based reconstructions of biome distributions for Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) at 0,6000 and 18,000 14C yr B.P.

Aim  This paper documents reconstructions of the vegetation patterns in Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) in the mid-Holocene and at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Methods  Vegetation patterns were reconstructed from pollen data using an objective biomization scheme based on plant functional types. The biomization scheme was first tested using 535 modern pollen samples from 377 sites, and then applied unchanged to fossil pollen samples dating to 6000 ± 500 or 18,000 ± 1000 14C yr bp. Results  1. Tests using surface pollen sample sites showed that the biomization scheme is capable of reproducing the modern broad-scale patterns of vegetation distribution. The north–south gradient in temperature, reflected in transitions from cool evergreen needleleaf forest in the extreme south through temperate rain forest or wet sclerophyll forest (WSFW) and into tropical forests, is well reconstructed. The transitions from xerophytic through sclerophyll woodlands and open forests to closed-canopy forests, which reflect the gradient in plant available moisture from the continental interior towards the coast, are reconstructed with less geographical precision but nevertheless the broad-scale pattern emerges. 2. Differences between the modern and mid-Holocene vegetation patterns in mainland Australia are comparatively small and reflect changes in moisture availability rather than temperature. In south-eastern Australia some sites show a shift towards more moisture-stressed vegetation in the mid-Holocene with xerophytic woods/scrub and temperate sclerophyll woodland and shrubland at sites characterized today by WSFW or warm-temperate rain forest (WTRF). However, sites in the Snowy Mountains, on the Southern Tablelands and east of the Great Dividing Range have more moisture-demanding vegetation in the mid-Holocene than today. South-western Australia was slightly drier than today. The single site in north-western Australia also shows conditions drier than today in the mid-Holocene. Changes in the tropics are also comparatively small, but the presence of WTRF and tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland in the mid-Holocene, in sites occupied today by cool-temperate rain forest, indicate warmer conditions. 3. Expansion of xerophytic vegetation in the south and tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland in the north indicate drier conditions across mainland Australia at the LGM. None of these changes are informative about the degree of cooling. However the evidence from the tropics, showing lowering of the treeline and forest belts, indicates that conditions were between 1 and 9 °C (depending on elevation) colder. The encroachment of tropical deciduous broadleaf forest and woodland into lowland evergreen broadleaf forest implies greater aridity. Main conclusions  This study provides the first continental-scale reconstruction of mid-Holocene and LGM vegetation patterns from Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific (SEAPAC region) using an objective biomization scheme. These data will provide a benchmark for evaluation of palaeoclimate simulations within the framework of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project.

Parameter spaces of environmental fields responsible for cyclone development from tropics to extratropics

Objective cyclone tracking applied to a 30-yr reanalysis dataset shows that cyclone development in the summer and autumn seasons is active in the tropics and extratropics and inactive in the subtropics. To understand this geographically bimodal distribution of cyclone development associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones quantitatively, the direct relationship between cyclone types and their environments are assessed by using a parameter space of environmental variables [environmental parameter space (EPS)]. The number of cyclones is analyzed in terms of two different factors: the environmental conditions favorable for cyclone development and the area size that satisfies the favorable condition. The EPS analysis is mainly conducted for two representative environmental parameters that are commonly used for cyclone analysis: potential intensity for tropical cyclones and baroclinicity for extratropical cyclones. The geographically bimodal distribution is attributed to the high sensitivity of the cyclone development to the change in the environmental fields from tropics to extratropics. In addition, the bimodal distribution is partly attributed to the rapid change in the environmental fields from tropics to extratropics. The EPS analysis also shows that other environmental parameters, including relative humidity and vertical velocity, may enhance the contrast between the tropics (extratropics) and subtropics, whereas they are not essential for determining cyclone types. The relationship between cyclones and their environments is found to be similar between the hemispheres in the EPS, although the geographical distribution, particularly the longitudinal uniformity, is markedly different between the hemispheres.

Tropical climates at the Last Glacial Maximum: a new synthesis of terrestrial palaeoclimate data. I. Vegetation, lake-levels and geochemistry.

Palaeodata in synthesis form are needed as benchmarks for the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). Advances since the last synthesis of terrestrial palaeodata from the last glacial maximum (LGM) call for a new evaluation, especially of data from the tropics. Here pollen, plant-macrofossil, lake-level, noble gas (from groundwater) and δ18O (from speleothems) data are compiled for 18±2 ka (14C), 32 °N–33 °S. The reliability of the data was evaluated using explicit criteria and some types of data were re-analysed using consistent methods in order to derive a set of mutually consistent palaeoclimate estimates of mean temperature of the coldest month (MTCO), mean annual temperature (MAT), plant available moisture (PAM) and runoff (P-E). Cold-month temperature (MAT) anomalies from plant data range from −1 to −2 K near sea level in Indonesia and the S Pacific, through −6 to −8 K at many high-elevation sites to −8 to −15 K in S China and the SE USA. MAT anomalies from groundwater or speleothems seem more uniform (−4 to −6 K), but the data are as yet sparse; a clear divergence between MAT and cold-month estimates from the same region is seen only in the SE USA, where cold-air advection is expected to have enhanced cooling in winter. Regression of all cold-month anomalies against site elevation yielded an estimated average cooling of −2.5 to −3 K at modern sea level, increasing to ≈−6 K by 3000 m. However, Neotropical sites showed larger than the average sea-level cooling (−5 to −6 K) and a non-significant elevation effect, whereas W and S Pacific sites showed much less sea-level cooling (−1 K) and a stronger elevation effect. These findings support the inference that tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were lower than the CLIMAP estimates, but they limit the plausible average tropical sea-surface cooling, and they support the existence of CLIMAP-like geographic patterns in SST anomalies. Trends of PAM and lake levels indicate wet LGM conditions in the W USA, and at the highest elevations, with generally dry conditions elsewhere. These results suggest a colder-than-present ocean surface producing a weaker hydrological cycle, more arid continents, and arguably steeper-than-present terrestrial lapse rates. Such linkages are supported by recent observations on freezing-level height and tropical SSTs; moreover, simulations of “greenhouse” and LGM climates point to several possible feedback processes by which low-level temperature anomalies might be amplified aloft.

Of tropics, prisons and bicycles: a conversation with David Arnold

David Arnold who retired this year as the Professor of Asian and Global History at the University of Warwick remains one of the most prolific historians of colonial medicine and modern South Asia. A founding member of the subaltern studies collective, he is considered widely as a pioneer in the histories of colonial medicine, environment, penology, hunger and famines within South Asian studies and beyond. In this interview he recalls his formative inspirations, ideological motivations and reflects critically on his earlier works, explaining various shifts as well as map- ping the possible course of future work. He talks at length about his forthcoming works on everyday technology, food and monsoon Asia. Finally, he shares with us his desire of initiating work on an ambitious project about the twin themes of poison and poverty in South Asian his- tory, beginning with the Bengal famine in the late eighteenth century and ending with the Bhopal gas tragedy of the early 1980s. This conversation provides insights into the ways in which the field of medical history in modern South Asia has been shaped over the past three decades through interactions with broader discussions on agency, resistance, power, everydayness, subal- tern studies, global and spatial histories. It hints further at the newer directions which are being opened up by such persisting intellectual entanglements.

Late Quaternary environmental change in the interior South American tropics: new insight from leaf wax stable isotopes

Stable isotope analysis of leaf waxes in a sediment core from Laguna La Gaiba, a shallow lake located at the Bolivian margin of the Pantanal wetlands, provides new perspective on vegetation and climate change in the lowland interior tropics of South America over the past 40,000 years. The carbon isotopic compositions (δ13C) of long-chain n-alkanes reveal large shifts between C3-and C4-dominated vegetation communities since the last glacial period, consistent with landscape reconstructions generated with pollen data from the same sediment core. Leaf wax δ13C values during the last glacial period reflect an open landscape composed of C4grasses and C3herbs from 41–20ka. A peak in C4abundance during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21ka) suggests drier or more seasonal conditions relative to the earlier glacial period, while the development of a C3-dominated forest community after 20 ka points to increased humidity during the last deglaciation. Within the Holocene, large changes in the abundance of C4 vegetation indicate a transition from drier or more seasonal conditions during the early/mid-Holocene to wetter conditions in the late Holocene coincident with increasing austral summer insolation. Strong negative correlations between leaf wax δ13C and δD values over the entire record indicate that the majority of variability in leaf wax δD at this site can be explained by variability in the magnitude of biosynthetic fractionation by different vegetation types rather than changes in meteoric water δD signatures. However, positive δD deviations from the observed δ13C–δD trends are consistent with more enriched source water and drier or more seasonal conditions during the early/mid-Holocene and LGM. Overall, our record adds to evidence of varying influence of glacial boundary conditions and orbital forcing on South American Summer Monsoon precipitation in different regions of the South American tropics. Moreover, the relationships between leaf wax stable isotopes and pollen data observed at this site underscore the complementary nature of pollen and leaf wax δ13C data for reconstructing past vegetation changes and the potentially large effects of such changes on leaf wax δD signatures.

Atmospheric versus vegetation controls of Amazonian tropical rain forest evapotranspiration: Are the wet and seasonally dry rain forests any different?

This study analyzes evapotranspiration data for three wet and two seasonally dry rain forest sites in Amazonia. The main environmental (net radiation, vapor pressure deficit, and aerodynamic conductance) and vegetation (surface conductance) controls of evapotranspiration are also assessed. Our research supports earlier studies that demonstrate that evapotranspiration in the dry season is higher than that in the wet season and that surface net radiation is the main controller of evapotranspiration in wet equatorial sites. However, our analyses also indicate that there are different factors controlling the seasonality of evapotranspiration in wet equatorial rain forest sites and southern seasonally dry rain forests. While the seasonality of evapotranspiration in wet equatorial forests is driven solely by environmental factors, in seasonally dry forests, it is also biotically controlled with the surface conductance varying between seasons by a factor of approximately 2. The identification of these different drivers of evapotranspiration is a major step forward in our understanding of the water dynamics of tropical forests and has significant implications for the future development of vegetation-atmosphere models and land use and conservation planning in the region.

The land-atmosphere water flux in the tropics

Tropical vegetation is a major source of global land surface evapotranspiration, and can thus play a major role in global hydrological cycles and global atmospheric circulation. Accurate prediction of tropical evapotranspiration is critical to our understanding of these processes under changing climate. We examined the controls on evapotranspiration in tropical vegetation at 21 pan-tropical eddy covariance sites, conducted a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of 13 evapotranspiration models at these sites, and assessed the ability to scale up model estimates of evapotranspiration for the test region of Amazonia. Net radiation was the strongest determinant of evapotranspiration (mean evaporative fraction was 0.72) and explained 87% of the variance in monthly evapotranspiration across the sites. Vapor pressure deficit was the strongest residual predictor (14%), followed by normalized difference vegetation index (9%), precipitation (6%) and wind speed (4%). The radiation-based evapotranspiration models performed best overall for three reasons: (1) the vegetation was largely decoupled from atmospheric turbulent transfer (calculated from X decoupling factor), especially at the wetter sites; (2) the resistance-based models were hindered by difficulty in consistently characterizing canopy (and stomatal) resistance in the highly diverse vegetation; (3) the temperature-based models inadequately captured the variability in tropical evapotranspiration. We evaluated the potential to predict regional evapotranspiration for one test region: Amazonia. We estimated an Amazonia-wide evapotranspiration of 1370 mm yr(-1), but this value is dependent on assumptions about energy balance closure for the tropical eddy covariance sites; a lower value (1096 mm yr(-1)) is considered in discussion on the use of flux data to validate and interpolate models.

Cloud condensation nuclei from biomass burning during the Amazonian dry-to-wet transition season

Aircraft measurements of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) during the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) were conducted over the Southwestern Amazon region in September-October 2002, to emphasize the dry-to-wet transition season. The CCN concentrations were measured for values within the range 0.1-1.0% of supersaturation. The CCN concentration inside the boundary layer revealed a general decreasing trend during the transition from the end of the dry season to the onset of the wet season. Clean and polluted areas showed large differences. The differences were not so strong at high levels in the troposphere and there was evidence supporting the semi-direct aerosol effect in suppressing convection through the evaporation of clouds by aerosol absorption. The measurements also showed a diurnal cycle following biomass burning activity. Although biomass burning was the most important source of CCN, it was seen as a source of relatively efficient CCN, since the increase was significant only at high supersaturations.

Characterization of the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols in Amazonia from long-term AERONET monitoring (1993-1995 and 1999-2006)

We present a new climatology of atmospheric aerosols (primarily pyrogenic and biogenic) for the Brazilian tropics on the basis of a high-quality data set of spectral aerosol optical depth and directional sky radiance measurements from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Cimel Sun-sky radiometers at more than 15 sites distributed across the Amazon basin and adjacent Cerrado region. This network is the only long-term project (with a record including observations from more than 11 years at some locations) ever to have provided ground-based remotely-sensed column aerosol properties for this critical region. Distinctive features of the Amazonian area aerosol are presented by partitioning the region into three aerosol regimes: southern Amazonian forest, Cerrado, and northern Amazonian forest. The monitoring sites generally include measurements from the interval 1999-2006, but some sites have measurement records that date back to the initial days of the AERONET program in 1993. Seasonal time series of aerosol optical depth (AOD), angstrom ngstrom exponent, and columnar-averaged microphysical properties of the aerosol derived from sky radiance inversion techniques (single-scattering albedo, volume size distribution, fine mode fraction of AOD, etc.) are described and contrasted for the defined regions. During the wet season, occurrences of mineral dust penetrating deep into the interior were observed.

Metodologia de análise de dioxinas em cinzas obtidas da incineração de couro Wet-Blue

O presente trabalho trata da validação de uma metodologia de análise para a determinação de dibenzo-p-dioxinas policloradas (PCDDs) em cinzas obtidas através de um processo de incineração de aparas de couro wet-blue. As dioxinas, compostos de extrema toxicidade, podem ser formadas na superfície das partículas de cinzas em reações de combustão. O mecanismo de formação de PCDDs requer uma atmosfera rica em oxigênio, uma fonte de cloro e a presença na cinza de um metal capaz de catalizar uma reação Deacon. O couro wet-blue apresenta em sua composição os precursores para a formação de dioxinas tais como o cloro e o metal catalisador sódio, cuja presença destes elementos foi comprovada por análises de superfície realizadas no couro e nas cinzas usando as técnicas de Rutherford Back-scattering Spectrometry (RBS) e Microscopia Eletrônica de Varredura (MEV). Desta forma, torna-se necessária a análise de dioxinas em cinzas de couro para especificar seu tratamento e destino final. As cinzas de couro foram obtidas numa unidade de bancada de incineração com reator de leito fixo, processo conhecido como GCC (Gaseificação e Combustão Combinadas). A metodologia utilizada para analisar dioxinas nas cinzas de couro foi baseada no Método 8280B da Agência de Proteção Ambiental dos Estados Unidos da América (EPA-USA). Este método descreve os procedimentos de extração de matrizes específicas, o clean-up para os analitos específicos e a determinação de dioxinas através das técnicas de cromatografia gasosa de alta resolução e espectrometria de massa de baixa resolução. O sucesso da análise depende da preparação dos extratos das amostras, etapa conhecida como clean-up, a qual é descrita minuciosamente neste trabalho, incluindo a montagem das colunas cromatográficas. A eficiência de extração das dioxinas foi obtida com os resultados comparativos das análises entre matrizes contaminadas com solução padrão de dioxinas e o padrão analítico. A validação deste método para análise de dioxinas policloradas em cinzas de couro wet-blue foi considerada satisfatória para os objetivos do trabalho, uma vez que a eficiência de extração de dioxinas obtida ficou dentro dos critérios estabelecidos pelo método.

Determinação das espécies de cromo nas cinzas da incineração de couro wet-blue em reatores de leito fixo e leito fluidizado

Este trabalho tem como objetivo a determinação quantitativa da concentração de cromo (III, VI e total) nas cinzas de serragem de couro wet-blue, incineradas em reatores de leito fixo nas temperaturas de 450, 550 e 650 C e reator de leito fluidizado nas temperaturas de 730, 780, 830 e 850 C, verificando se estes resultados estão dentro dos limites permitidos pelas normas ambientais brasileiras e, consequentemente, se em relação à concentração de cromo, os processos de incineração utilizados são uma maneira adequada de promover a eliminação ambientalmente aceitável da serragem de couro wet-blue. Realizou-se, neste trabalho, o estudo dos procedimentos para digestão da amostra, dos métodos analíticos quantitativos para a determinação da concentração de cromo que constatou-se depender da valência a ser analisada. As determinações de cromo total e cromo hexavalente contido nas cinzas foram realizadas após digestão ácida e digestão alcalina da amostra, respectivamente. Após o processo de digestão o cromo total (na forma de Cr (VI)) e o cromo hexavalente foram determinados por dois métodos espectrofotométricos na forma de Cr (VI) em meio ácido com difenilcarbazida (DPC) e após redução na forma de Cr (III), complexado com EDTA. O cromo total também foi determinado por volumetria empregando o método titulométrico. Este método não foi empregado na determinação de cromo hexavalente devido aos baixos teores deste nas cinzas. O teor de Cr (III) foi obtido pela diferença entre o cromo total e cromo hexavalente Procedendo-se a análise estatística dos resultados de cromo hexavalente e total nas cinzas pelos diferentes técnicas analíticas, independente do tipo de incinerador, verificou-se que não há diferenças significativas entre os mesmos. Podendo, portanto, utilizar quaisquer uma das técnicas para avaliá-los. Comparando-se os resultados das análises obtidos na incineração da serragem de couro wet-blue em reator de leito fixo e reator de leito fluidizado em diferentes temperaturas, verificou-se que no reator de leito fixo o teor de Cr (VI) nas cinzas geradas foi muito baixa, praticamente inexistente; enquanto que no reator de leito fluidizado se a temperatura de combustão não for muito alta o teor de Cr (VI) ficará dentro dos limites aceitáveis. As cinzas provenientes de qualquer um dos processos de incineração analisadas, neste trabalho, tanto do reator de leito fixo como de leito fluidizado não é conveniente que seja descartada diretamente no solo. As mesmas devem ser aproveitadas na indústria de cerâmicos, ou mesmo em algum processo que visa recuperar o cromo.

Performance of supplemented heifers on Marandu grass pastures in the wet-to-dry transition and dry seasons

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the characteristics of the sward canopy of Marandu grass during the rainy season, the wet-to-dry transition and the dry seasons, between March and September 2004, under intermittent grazing, and to correlate those characteristics with the performance of crossbred heifers receiving mineral supplements ad libitum or protein supplements. The experiment consisted of a randomized block design with three blocks (set of 13 paddocks), each containing five crossbred heifers per experimental unit, totaling 15 replicates. The heifers were given protein supplements daily in individual stalls and received an average 4 g/kg/day of the supplement during the rainy season and 5 g/kg/day during the dry season. Their weight gain was assessed monthly. The pasture structure was assessed through destructive sampling, and the bromatological composition of esophageal extrusa samples was also assessed. Analysis of variance was used to assess performance, and regression analysis was used to evaluate the sward canopy characteristics in relation to the months of the year. A cluster procedure was used to determine the similarity between the months of the year under assessment. Two different groups were formed for pasture evaluation: one group including the months of March to July and another group including the months of August and September. The first group exhibited a better canopy structure than the second group. This fact was corroborated by the animal performance, which was lower during the months of the second group. Low-intake protein supplementation was effective in increasing the performance of the grazing heifers. Pasture structure is critical for animal performance in a grazing environment, regardless of the type of supplementation.