Simulation von Koexistenzszenarien für die Automation mit SEAMCAT an einem Anwendungsbeispiel

Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit Koexistenzaussagen von Funktechnologien. Dafür wurden verschiedene Simulationstools auf ihre Eignung untersucht. Einen besonderen Schwerpunkt nimmt das Tool SEAMCAT ein. In der Arbeit wurde ein Modell ausgearbeitet, das für die Simulation mit SEAMCAT geeignet ist. Ergebnisse wurden mit Messungen verglichen, die das ifak Magdeburg für das System erstellt haben. Empfehlungen und Ausblicke für Funktechnologien in der Automation wurden abschließend benannt.

Sensitivity of simulation results to competing SAM updates

Recently there has been a renewed research interest in the properties of non survey updates of input-output tables and social accounting matrices (SAM). Along with the venerable and well known scaling RAS method, several alternative new procedures related to entropy minimization and other metrics have been suggested, tested and used in the literature. Whether these procedures will eventually substitute or merely complement the RAS approach is still an open question without a definite answer. The performance of many of the updating procedures has been tested using some kind of proximity or closeness measure to a reference input-output table or SAM. The first goal of this paper, in contrast, is the proposal of checking the operational performance of updating mechanisms by way of comparing the simulation results that ensue from adopting alternative databases for calibration of a reference applied general equilibrium model. The second goal is to introduce a new updatin! g procedure based on information retrieval principles. This new procedure is then compared as far as performance is concerned to two well-known updating approaches: RAS and cross-entropy. The rationale for the suggested cross validation is that the driving force for having more up to date databases is to be able to conduct more current, and hopefully more credible, policy analyses.

Ab initio modeling and molecular dynamics simulation of the alpha 1b-adrenergic receptor activation.

This work describes the ab initio procedure employed to build an activation model for the alpha 1b-adrenergic receptor (alpha 1b-AR). The first version of the model was progressively modified and complicated by means of a many-step iterative procedure characterized by the employment of experimental validations of the model in each upgrading step. A combined simulated (molecular dynamics) and experimental mutagenesis approach was used to determine the structural and dynamic features characterizing the inactive and active states of alpha 1b-AR. The latest version of the model has been successfully challenged with respect to its ability to interpret and predict the functional properties of a large number of mutants. The iterative approach employed to describe alpha 1b-AR activation in terms of molecular structure and dynamics allows further complications of the model to allow prediction and interpretation of an ever-increasing number of experimental data.

Numerical simulation of combined heat transfer phenomena (conduction, convection, and radiation). Application to he optimisation of thermal systems

Thermal systems interchanging heat and mass by conduction, convection, radiation (solar and thermal ) occur in many engineering applications like energy storage by solar collectors, window glazing in buildings, refrigeration of plastic moulds, air handling units etc. Often these thermal systems are composed of various elements for example a building with wall, windows, rooms, etc. It would be of particular interest to have a modular thermal system which is formed by connecting different modules for the elements, flexibility to use and change models for individual elements, add or remove elements without changing the entire code. A numerical approach to handle the heat transfer and fluid flow in such systems helps in saving the full scale experiment time, cost and also aids optimisation of parameters of the system. In subsequent sections are presented a short summary of the work done until now on the orientation of the thesis in the field of numerical methods for heat transfer and fluid flow applications, the work in process and the future work.

Hydrogeophysical data integration at larger scales: Application of Bayesian sequential simulation for the characterization of heterogeneous alluvial aquifers

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K) within an aquifer is critical for reliable predictions of solute transport and the development of effective groundwater management and/or remediation strategies. While core analyses and hydraulic logging can provide highly detailed information, such information is inherently localized around boreholes that tend to be sparsely distributed throughout the aquifer volume. Conversely, larger-scale hydraulic experiments like pumping and tracer tests provide relatively low-resolution estimates of K in the investigated subsurface region. As a result, traditional hydrogeological measurement techniques contain a gap in terms of spatial resolution and coverage, and they are often alone inadequate for characterizing heterogeneous aquifers. Geophysical methods have the potential to bridge this gap. The recent increased interest in the application of geophysical methods to hydrogeological problems is clearly evidenced by the formation and rapid growth of the domain of hydrogeophysics over the past decade (e.g., Rubin and Hubbard, 2005).

Effort, reward and self-reported mental health: a simulation study on negative affectivity bias.

Background : In the present article, we propose an alternative method for dealing with negative affectivity (NA) biases in research, while investigating the association between a deleterious psychosocial environment at work and poor mental health. First, we investigated how strong NA must be to cause an observed correlation between the independent and dependent variables. Second, we subjectively assessed whether NA can have a large enough impact on a large enough number of subjects to invalidate the observed correlations between dependent and independent variables.Methods : We simulated 10,000 populations of 300 subjects each, using the marginal distribution of workers in an actual population that had answered the Siegrist's questionnaire on effort and reward imbalance (ERI) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ).Results : The results of the present study suggested that simulated NA has a minimal effect on the mean scores for effort and reward. However, the correlations between the effort and reward imbalance (ERI) ratio and the GHQ score might be important, even in simulated populations with a limited NA.Conclusions : When investigating the relationship between the ERI ratio and the GHQ score, we suggest the following rules for the interpretation of the results: correlations with an explained variance of 5% and below should be considered with caution; correlations with an explained variance between 5% and 10% may result from NA, although this effect does not seem likely; and correlations with an explained variance of 10% and above are not likely to be the result of NA biases. [Authors]

Microsatellites can be misleading: an empirical and simulation study.

It has been long recognized that highly polymorphic genetic markers can lead to underestimation of divergence between populations when migration is low. Microsatellite loci, which are characterized by extremely high mutation rates, are particularly likely to be affected. Here, we report genetic differentiation estimates in a contact zone between two chromosome races of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), based on 10 autosomal microsatellites, a newly developed Y-chromosome microsatellite, and mitochondrial DNA. These results are compared to previous data on proteins and karyotypes. Estimates of genetic differentiation based on F- and R-statistics are much lower for autosomal microsatellites than for all other genetic markers. We show by simulations that this discrepancy stems mainly from the high mutation rate of microsatellite markers for F-statistics and from deviations from a single-step mutation model for R-statistics. The sex-linked genetic markers show that all gene exchange between races is mediated by females. The absence of male-mediated gene flow most likely results from male hybrid sterility.

The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach

This paper attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999-2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing—or more generally changes in age structure—is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland.

Cell-based computational modeling of vascular morphogenesis using Tissue Simulation Toolkit.

Computational modeling has become a widely used tool for unraveling the mechanisms of higher level cooperative cell behavior during vascular morphogenesis. However, experimenting with published simulation models or adding new assumptions to those models can be daunting for novice and even for experienced computational scientists. Here, we present a step-by-step, practical tutorial for building cell-based simulations of vascular morphogenesis using the Tissue Simulation Toolkit (TST). The TST is a freely available, open-source C++ library for developing simulations with the two-dimensional cellular Potts model, a stochastic, agent-based framework to simulate collective cell behavior. We will show the basic use of the TST to simulate and experiment with published simulations of vascular network formation. Then, we will present step-by-step instructions and explanations for building a recent simulation model of tumor angiogenesis. Demonstrated mechanisms include cell-cell adhesion, chemotaxis, cell elongation, haptotaxis, and haptokinesis.

Simulation-based systematic review of imatinib population pharmacokinetics and PK-PD relationships in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients

Objectives: Several population pharmacokinetic (PPK) and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) analyses have been performed with the anticancer drug imatinib. Inspired by the approach of meta-analysis, we aimed to compare and combine results from published studies in a useful way - in particular for improving the clinical interpretation of imatinib concentration measurements in the scope of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). Methods: Original PPK analyses and PK-PD studies (PK surrogate: trough concentration Cmin; PD outcomes: optimal early response and specific adverse events) were searched systematically on MEDLINE. From each identified PPK model, a predicted concentration distribution under standard dosage was derived through 1000 simulations (NONMEM), after standardizing model parameters to common covariates. A "reference range" was calculated from pooled simulated concentrations in a semi-quantitative approach (without specific weighting) over the whole dosing interval. Meta-regression summarized relationships between Cmin and optimal/suboptimal early treatment response. Results: 9 PPK models and 6 relevant PK-PD reports in CML patients were identified. Model-based predicted median Cmin ranged from 555 to 1388 ng/ml (grand median: 870 ng/ml and inter-quartile range: 520-1390 ng/ml). The probability to achieve optimal early response was predicted to increase from 60 to 85% from 520 to 1390 ng/ml across PK-PD studies (odds ratio for doubling Cmin: 2.7). Reporting of specific adverse events was too heterogeneous to perform a regression analysis. The general frequency of anemia, rash and fluid retention increased however consistently with Cmin, but less than response probability. Conclusions: Predicted drug exposure may differ substantially between various PPK analyses. In this review, heterogeneity was mainly attributed to 2 "outlying" models. The established reference range seems to cover the range where both good efficacy and acceptable tolerance are expected for most patients. TDM guided dose adjustment appears therefore justified for imatinib in CML patients. Its usefulness remains now to be prospectively validated in a randomized trial.

Agent based simulation to optimise emergency departments

Nowadays, many of the health care systems are large and complex environments and quite dynamic, specifically Emergency Departments, EDs. It is opened and working 24 hours per day throughout the year with limited resources, whereas it is overcrowded. Thus, is mandatory to simulate EDs to improve qualitatively and quantitatively their performance. This improvement can be achieved modelling and simulating EDs using Agent-Based Model, ABM and optimising many different staff scenarios. This work optimises the staff configuration of an ED. In order to do optimisation, objective functions to minimise or maximise have to be set. One of those objective functions is to find the best or optimum staff configuration that minimise patient waiting time. The staff configuration comprises: doctors, triage nurses, and admissions, the amount and sort of them. Staff configuration is a combinatorial problem, that can take a lot of time to be solved. HPC is used to run the experiments, and encouraging results were obtained. However, even with the basic ED used in this work the search space is very large, thus, when the problem size increases, it is going to need more resources of processing in order to obtain results in an acceptable time.

Artificial Snow Optimization in Winter Sport Destinations Using a Multi-agent Simulation

This paper presents the Juste-Neige system for predicting the snow height on the ski runs of a resort using a multi-agent simulation software. Its aim is to facilitate snow cover management in order to i) reduce the production cost of artificial snow and to improve the profit margin for the companies managing the ski resorts; and ii) to reduce the water and energy consumption, and thus to reduce the environmental impact, by producing only the snow needed for a good skiing experience. The software provides maps with the predicted snow heights for up to 13 days. On these maps, the areas most exposed to snow erosion are highlighted. The software proceeds in three steps: i) interpolation of snow height measurements with a neural network; ii) local meteorological forecasts for every ski resort; iii) simulation of the impact caused by skiers using a multi-agent system. The software has been evaluated in the Swiss ski resort of Verbier and provides useful predictions.

Simulation des caractéristiques ECG du syndrome de Brugada à l'aide d'un programme de modélisation 3D

Introduction : Le syndrome de Brugada, décrit en 1992 par Pedro et Josep Brugada, est un syndrome cardiaque caractérisé par un sus-décalage particulier du segment ST associé à un bloc de branche droit atypique au niveau des dérivations ECG V1 à V3. Les altérations ECG du syndrome de Brugada sont classifiées en 3 types dont seul le type 1 est diagnostique. Les mécanismes physiopathologiques exacts de ce syndrome sont pour le moment encore controversés. Plusieurs hypothèses sont proposées dans la littérature dont deux principales retiennent l'attention : 1) le modèle du trouble de repolarisation stipule des potentiels d'action réduits en durée et en amplitude liés à un changement de répartition de canaux potassiques 2) le modèle du trouble de dépolarisation spécifie un retard de conduction se traduisant par une dépolarisation retardée. Dans le STEMI, un sus-décalage ST ressemblant à celui du syndrome de Brugada est expliqué par deux théories : 1) le courant de lésion diastolique suggère une élévation du potentiel diastolique transformé artificiellement en sus-décalage ST par les filtres utilisés dans tous les appareils ECG.¦Objectif : Recréer les manifestations ECG du syndrome de Brugada en appliquant les modifications du potentiel d'action des cardiomyocytes rapportées dans la littérature.¦Méthode : Pour ce travail, nous avons utilisé "ECGsim", un simulateur informatique réaliste d'ECG disponible gratuitement sur www.ecgsim.org. Ce programme est basé sur une reconstruction de l'ECG de surface à l'aide de 1500 noeuds représentant chacun les potentiels d'action des ventricules droit et gauche, épicardiques et endocardiques. L'ECG simulé peut être donc vu comme l'intégration de l'ensemble de ces potentiels d'action en tenant compte des propriétés de conductivité des tissus s'interposant entre les électrodes de surface et le coeur. Dans ce programme, nous avons définit trois zones, de taille différente, comprenant la chambre de chasse du ventricule droit. Pour chaque zone, nous avons reproduit les modifications des potentiels d'action citées dans les modèles du trouble de repolarisation et de dépolarisation et des théories de courant de lésion systolique et diastolique. Nous avons utilisé, en plus des douze dérivations habituelles, une électrode positionnée en V2IC3 (i.e. 3ème espace intercostal) sur le thorax virtuel du programme ECGsim.¦Résultats : Pour des raisons techniques, le modèle du trouble de repolarisation n'a pas pu être entièrement réalisée dans ce travail. Le modèle du trouble de dépolarisation ne reproduit pas d'altération de type Brugada mais un bloc de branche droit plus ou moins complet. Le courant de lésion diastolique permet d'obtenir un sus-décalage ST en augmentant le potentiel diastolique épicardique des cardiomyocytes de la chambre de chasse du ventricule droit. Une inversion de l'onde T apparaît lorsque la durée du potentiel d'action est prolongée. L'amplitude du sus-décalage ST dépend de la valeur du potentiel diastolique, de la taille de la lésion et de sa localisation épicardique ou transmurale. Le courant de lésion systolique n'entraîne pas de sus-décalage ST mais accentue l'amplitude de l'onde T.¦Discussion et conclusion : Dans ce travail, l'élévation du potentiel diastolique avec un prolongement de la durée du potentiel d'action est la combinaison qui reproduit le mieux les altérations ECG du Brugada. Une persistance de cellules de type nodal au niveau de la chambre de chasse du ventricule droit pourrait être une explication à ces modifications particulières du potentiel d'action. Le risque d'arythmie dans la Brugada pourrait également être expliqué par une automaticité anormale des cellules de type nodal. Ainsi, des altérations des mécanismes cellulaires impliqués dans le maintien du potentiel diastolique pourraient être présentes dans le syndrome de Brugada, ce qui, à notre connaissance, n'a jamais été rapporté dans la littérature.