Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the relation between ownership structure and capital structure

The agency relationship between managers and shareholders has the potential to influence decision-making in the firm which in turn potentially impacts on firm characteristics such as value and leverage. Prior evidence has demonstrated an association between ownership structure and firm value. This paper extends the literature by examining a further link between ownership structure and capital structure. Using an agency framework, it is argued that the distribution of equity ownership among corporate managers and external blockholders may have a significant relation with leverage. The empirical results provide support for a positive relation between external blockholders and leverage, and non-linear relation between the level of managerial share ownership and leverage. The results also suggest that the relation between external block ownership and leverage varies across the level of managerial share ownership. These results are consistent with active monitoring by blockholders, and the effects of convergence-of-interests and management entrenchment.

Repeatability of surface EMG variables in the sternocleidomastoid and anterior scalene muscles

In this study we examined the repeatability and reliability of the surface electromyographic (sEMG) signal mean frequency (MNF), average rectified value (ARV) and conduction velocity (CV) measured for the sternocleidomastoid (SCM) and the anterior scalene (AS) muscles in nine healthy volunteers during 15-s isometric cervical flexion contractions at 50% of the maximal voluntary contraction level over 3 non-consecutive days. Repeatability and reliability estimates were obtained for the initial values and rates of change of each sEMG variable by using both the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and the normalised standard error of the mean (nSEM). Results from SCM indicated good levels of repeatability for the initial value and slope of ARV (ICC > 65%). For the AS, high levels of repeatability were identified for the initial value of MNF (ICC > 70%) and the slope of ARV (ICC > 75%). Values of nSEM in the range 2.8-7.2% were obtained for the initial values of MNF and CV for both SCM and AS, indicating clinically acceptable measurement precision. The low value obtained for the nSEM of the initial value of MNF for the AS, in combination with the high ICC, indicates that of all of the variables examined, this variable could offer the best normative index to distinguish between subjects with and without neck pain, and represents the sEMG variable of choice for future evaluation purposes.

The role of handouts, note-taking and overhead transparencies in veterinary science lectures

Objective To study student and staff views of the role and use of handouts, note-taking and overhead transparencies in veterinary science lectures at the University of Queensland Methods The Nominal Group Technique was used to help develop a questionnaire, which was completed by 351 students (a response rate of 84%) and 35 staff (76%) from the 5 years of the veterinary course. The data were analysed using the SAS statistical computer package. Results Staff and students held different views as to the frequency with which handouts should be used, their educational value, and whether they should be complete or partial. Fewer students than staff agreed that handouts discourage further reading in a subject. Almost all staff and students saw the central functions of note-taking to be provision of notes for subsequent revision and encoding information given by the lecturer. More students than staff however, considered that note-taking in lectures interferes with understanding. Staff and students held similar views as to the uses of overheads in lectures. Interestingly however, more staff than students agreed that overheads often contain too much information. Conclusion Both students and staff saw the central role of note-taking as providing a set of good notes for revision. Generally students preferred that this information be provided in the form of partial or complete handouts, while staff preferred students to take notes and to read outside lectures. Surprisingly, more staff than students felt that overhead transparencies often contained too much information. Note-taking, handouts and overhead transparencies need to be linked in a coherent educational strategy to promote effective learning.

Quadriceps concentric and eccentric exercise 1: Changes in contractile and electrical activity following eccentric and concentric exercise

The purpose of this study was to determine whether or not losses of strength or endurance following eccentric and concentric exercise are associated with reduced excitation. The effects of eccentric and concentric work on maximal voluntary isometric contraction (MVC) and surface electromyogram (EMG) of the quadriceps were studied in 10 healthy male subjects following bench-stepping for 20 min with a constant leading leg. Prior to stepping and at 0, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1, 3. 24 and 48 h afterwards the subjects performed a 30 s leg extension MVC with each leg during which the isometric force and the root mean square voltage of the EMG were recorded. In the eccentrically exercised muscles (ECC), MVC0-3 (force during the first 3 s of contraction) fen immediately after the bench-stepping exercise to 88 +/- 2% (mean SE) of the pre-exercise value and remained significantly lower than the concentrically exercised muscles (p < 0.05). The muscle weakness in the ECC could not be attributed to central fatigue as surface EMG amplitude at MVC0-3 increased during the recovery period. Muscle weakness after eccentric exercise appears to be due to contractile failure, which is not associated with a reduction in excitation as assessed by surface EMG. Muscular fatigue over 30 s did not change in the two muscle groups after exercise (p = 0.79), indicating that the ECC were weaker but not more fatiguable after exercise.

'Vigilant Hospitality': The Online Imperative and Teaching Cultural Studies

Information technology (IT) sees information as a fluid, to be stored, regulated and exchanged. This is a profoundly economic model, whose dreams are those of the marketplace – and now, university managers. But no teacher, of course, holds that teaching can be reduced to the movement of information from one point to another. Teaching is never quite absorbed into the models of IT. Where they meet, we do not have the utopia of the virtual classroom, at last freed from the strictures of timetables and the face-to-face; we have, rather, the grinding of two radically irreducible models. This has nothing to do with Luddism; on the contrary, it is the value and necessity of IT for us at present, as teachers. At a time when the tertiary sector’s massive investment in IT is motivated in part by its own dream of the teacherless classroom, one of the pressing tasks for us may be simply to argue as rigorously as we can the structural necessity of our own position as teachers, without nostalgia or humanist sentimentality.

Myoelectric manifestations of sternocleidomastoid and anterior scalene muscle fatigue in chronic neck pain patients

Objective: This study compares myoelectric manifestations of fatigue of the sternocleidomastoid (SCM) and anterior scalene (AS) muscles between 10 chronic neck pain subjects and 10 normal matched controls. Methods: Surface electromyography (sEMG) signals were recorded from the sternal bead of SCM and AS muscles bilaterally during submaximal isometric cervical flexion contractions at 25 and 50% of the maximum voluntary contraction (MVC). The mean frequency, average rectified value and conduction velocity of the sEMG signal were calculated to quantify myoelectric manifestations of muscle fatigue. Results: For both the SCM and AS muscles, the Mann-Whitney U test indicated that the initial value and slope of the mean frequency in neck pain patients were greater than in healthy subjects (P < 0.05). This was significant both at 25 and 50% of MVC. Conclusions: These results suggest: (a) a predominance of type-II fibres in the neck pain patients and/or (b) greater fatigability of the superficial cervical flexors in neck pain patients. These results are in agreement with previous muscle biopsy studies in subjects with neck pain, which identified transformation of slow-twitch type-I fibres to fast-twitch type-IIB fibres, as well as the clinical observation of reduced endurance in the cervical flexors in neck pain patients. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automatic segmentation and 3D feature extraction of protein aggregates in Caenorhabditis Elegans

In the last years, it has become increasingly clear that neurodegenerative diseases involve protein aggregation, a process often used as disease progression readout and to develop therapeutic strategies. This work presents an image processing tool to automatic segment, classify and quantify these aggregates and the whole 3D body of the nematode Caenorhabditis Elegans. A total of 150 data set images, containing different slices, were captured with a confocal microscope from animals of distinct genetic conditions. Because of the animals’ transparency, most of the slices pixels appeared dark, hampering their body volume direct reconstruction. Therefore, for each data set, all slices were stacked in one single 2D image in order to determine a volume approximation. The gradient of this image was input to an anisotropic diffusion algorithm that uses the Tukey’s biweight as edge-stopping function. The image histogram median of this outcome was used to dynamically determine a thresholding level, which allows the determination of a smoothed exterior contour of the worm and the medial axis of the worm body from thinning its skeleton. Based on this exterior contour diameter and the medial animal axis, random 3D points were then calculated to produce a volume mesh approximation. The protein aggregations were subsequently segmented based on an iso-value and blended with the resulting volume mesh. The results obtained were consistent with qualitative observations in literature, allowing non-biased, reliable and high throughput protein aggregates quantification. This may lead to a significant improvement on neurodegenerative diseases treatment planning and interventions prevention

Money laundering and virtual money: the bitcoin example

Money laundering operations faced multiple changes and become more complex, in line with financial innovation. Often, regulation does not follow that innovation, giving opportunity to take advantage of thes e gaps in less lawful activities. The bitcoin is a virtual currency that has grown significantly, both in value and in volume of transactions, in recent years. The dimension of the phenomenon led to an increasing surveillance from the financial supervisors . We search for evidence of the relationship between money laundering and transactions carried out in bitcoins, the most popular virtual currency at the moment. We analyse the official publications relating the two themes, academic research and the notori ety within the international media. The attitudes toward the bitcoin are diverse, but all share concerns about its future impact. Some sparse evidence indicates that bitcoin may be an opportunity for money laundering, however more data is required.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF AMERICAN AND SPANISH CRUISE PASSENGERS' BEHAVIORAL INTENTIONS

ABSTRACT Earlier studies of cross-national differences in consumer behavior in different consumption sectors have verified that cultural differences have a strong influence on consumers. Despite the importance of cross-national analysis, no studies in the literature examine the moderating effects of nationality on the construction of behavioral intentions and their antecedents among cruise line passengers. This study investigates the moderating effects of nationality on the relationships between perceived value, satisfaction, trust and behavioral intentions among Spanish and (U.S.) American passengers of cruise lines that use Barcelona as home port and port-of-call. A theoretical model was tested with a total of 968 surveys. Structural equation models (SEMs) were used, by means of a multigroup analysis. Results of this study indicated that Spaniards showed stronger relationships between trust and behavioral intentions, and between emotional value and satisfaction. Americans presented stronger relationships between service quality and satisfaction, and between service quality and behavioral intentions.

A gestão do risco associado à negociação de energia eléctrica através de contratos bilaterais e mercado spot

Num mercado de electricidade competitivo onde existe um ambiente de incerteza, as empresas de geração adoptam estratégias que visam a maximização do lucro, e a minimização do risco. Neste contexto, é de extrema importância para desenvolver uma estratégia adequada de gestão de risco ter em conta as diferentes opções de negociação de energia num mercado liberalizado, de forma a suportar a tomada de decisões na gestão de risco. O presente trabalho apresenta um modelo que avalia a melhor estratégia de um produtor de energia eléctrica que comercializa num mercado competitivo, onde existem dois mercados possíveis para a transacção de energia: o mercado organizado (bolsa) e o mercado de contratos bilaterais. O produtor tenta maximizar seus lucros e minimizar os riscos correspondentes, seleccionando o melhor equilíbrio entre os dois mercados possíveis (bolsa e bilateral). O mercado de contratos bilaterais visa gerir adequadamente os riscos inerentes à operação de mercados no curto prazo (mercado organizado) e dar o vendedor / comprador uma capacidade real de escolher o fornecedor com que quer negociar. O modelo apresentado neste trabalho faz uma caracterização explícita do risco no que diz respeito ao agente de mercado na questão da sua atitude face ao risco, medido pelo Value at Risk (VaR), descrito neste trabalho por Lucro-em-Risco (PAR). O preço e os factores de risco de volume são caracterizados por um valor médio e um desvio padrão, e são modelizados por distribuições normais. Os resultados numéricos são obtidos utilizando a simulação de Monte Carlo implementado em Matlab, e que é aplicado a um produtor que mantém uma carteira diversificada de tecnologias de geração, para um horizonte temporal de um ano. Esta dissertação está organizada da seguinte forma: o capítulo 1, 2 e 3 descrevem o estado-da-arte relacionado com a gestão de risco na comercialização de energia eléctrica. O capítulo 4 descreve o modelo desenvolvido e implementado, onde é também apresentado um estudo de caso com uma aplicação do modelo para avaliar o risco de negociação de um produtor. No capítulo 5 são apresentadas as principais conclusões.

Conceptual model for decomposing the value for the customer

Value has been defined in different theoretical contexts as need, desire, interest, standard /criteria, beliefs, attitudes, and preferences. The creation of value is key to any business, and any business activity is about exchanging some tangible and/or intangible good or service and having its value accepted and rewarded by customers or clients, either inside the enterprise or collaborative network or outside. “Perhaps surprising then is that firms often do not know how to define value, or how to measure it” (Anderson and Narus, 1998 cited by [1]). Woodruff echoed that we need “richer customer value theory” for providing an “important tool for locking onto the critical things that managers need to know”. In addition, he emphasized, “we need customer value theory that delves deeply into customer’s world of product use in their situations” [2]. In this sense, we proposed and validated a novel “Conceptual Model for Decomposing the Value for the Customer”. To this end, we were aware that time has a direct impact on customer perceived value, and the suppliers’ and customers’ perceptions change from the pre-purchase to the post-purchase phases, causing some uncertainty and doubts.We wanted to break down value into all its components, as well as every built and used assets (both endogenous and/or exogenous perspectives). This component analysis was then transposed into a mathematical formulation using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), so that the uncertainty and vagueness of value perceptions could be embedded in this model that relates used and built assets in the tangible and intangible deliverable exchange among the involved parties, with their actual value perceptions.

Comparison of Py-GC/FID and Wet Chemistry Analysis for Lignin Determination in Wood and Pulps from Eucalyptus globulus

The kraft pulps produced from heartwood and sapwood of Eucalyptus globulus at 130 degrees C, 150 degrees C, and 170 degrees C were characterized by wet chemistry (total lignin as sum of Klason and soluble lignin fractions) and pyrolysis (total lignin denoted as py-lignin). The total lignin content obtained with both methods was similar. In the course of delignification, the py-lignin values were higher (by 2 to 5%) compared to Klason values, which is in line with the importance of soluble lignin for total lignin determination. Pyrolysis analysis presents advantages over wet chemical procedures, and it can be applied to wood and pulps to determine lignin contents at different stages of the delignification process. The py-lignin values were used for kinetic modelling of delignification, with very high predictive value and results similar to those of modelling using wet chemical determinations.

Sensing Cloud Optimization to Solve ED of Units with Valve-Point Effects and Multi-fuels

In this paper a solution to an highly constrained and non-convex economical dispatch (ED) problem with a meta-heuristic technique named Sensing Cloud Optimization (SCO) is presented. The proposed meta-heuristic is based on a cloud of particles whose central point represents the objective function value and the remaining particles act as sensors "to fill" the search space and "guide" the central particle so it moves into the best direction. To demonstrate its performance, a case study with multi-fuel units and valve- point effects is presented.

Biofiltration of Air/Styrene and Air/Styrene/Acetone mixtures in a bubble column reactor

The goal of this work was the treatment of polluted waste gases in a bubble column reactor (BCR), in order to determinate the maximum value of reactor’s efficiency (RE), varying the inlet concentration (C in) of the pollutants. The gaseous mixtures studied were: (i) air with styrene and (ii) air with styrene and acetone. The liquid phase used to contain the biomass in the reactor was a basal salt medium (BSM), fundamental for the microorganisms’ development. The reactor used in this project consists of a glass column of 620mm height and inside diameter 75mm. In all essays there were continually measured: pH, dissolved oxygen and liquid’s temperature. Temperature and pH were controlled (T=24ºC, 7.0 ≤ pH ≤ 7.7). In all experiments the liquid volume (including the biomass) used in the reactor was kept constant (1.5L) as well as the total gas flowrate (1 L/min). Concerning the goal of the work, some parameters were calculated: the organic load (OL), removal efficiency (RE), elimination capacity (EC), biomass concentration (xf) and dry biomass concentration (Xdw). In a first series of experiments, the gas mixture used was air with styrene, varying its concentration from 191 mg.m-3 to 6500 mg.m-3.It was concluded that the RE maximum value (97%) was obtained for C in Sty = 4200 mg.m-3. For the maximum tested value of C in Sty, RE obtained was 20%. In a second step, the gaseous mixture included acetone, varying C in Sty between 225 mg.m-3 and 2659 mg.m-3 and C in Ac between 153mg.m-3 and 1389 mg.m-3. The aim of these tests was the determination of C in Ac for which RE was maximum, obtaining C in Ac = 750 mg.m-3. A third series of experiments was performed, in which C in Ac was maintained equal to that value and C in Sty was varied until higher values (5422 mg.m-3). RE maximum values obtained in this last series were 100% for styrene and 40% for acetone. One important conclusion is the fact that the microorganisms available degrade better styrene than acetone. On the ambit of this study, it was possible to identify the species available in biomass: Xanthobacter antotrophicus py2, Enterobacter aerogenes, Nocardia, Corynebacterium Spp., Rhodococcus rhodochrous e Pseudomonas Sp.