The Impact of Monetary Union on EU-15 Sovereign Debt Yield Spreads

With European Monetary Union (EMU), there was an increase in the adjusted spreads (corrected from the foreign exchange risk) of euro participating countries' sovereign securities over Germany and a decrease in those of non-euro countries. The objective of this paper is to study the reasons for this result, and in particular, whether the change in the price assigned by markets was due to domestic factors such as credit risk and/or market liquidity, or to international risk factors. The empirical evidence suggests that market size scale economies have increased since EMU for all European markets, so the effect of the various risk factors, even though it differs between euro and non-euro countries, is always dependent on the size of the market.

Evidential relevance in scene to offender transfer cases: development and analysis of a likelihood ratio for offence level propositions

The present paper focuses on the analysis and discussion of a likelihood ratio (LR) development for propositions at a hierarchical level known in the context as 'offence level'. Existing literature on the topic has considered LR developments for so-called offender to scene transfer cases. These settings involve-in their simplest form-a single stain found on a crime scene, but with possible uncertainty about the degree to which that stain is relevant (i.e. that it has been left by the offender). Extensions to multiple stains or multiple offenders have also been reported. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a development of a LR for offence level propositions when case settings involve potential transfer in the opposite direction, i.e. victim/scene to offender transfer. This setting has previously not yet been considered. The rationale behind the proposed LR is illustrated through graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). The role of various uncertain parameters is investigated through sensitivity analyses as well as simulations.

The connectome viewer toolkit: an open source framework to manage, analyze, and visualize connectomes.

Advanced neuroinformatics tools are required for methods of connectome mapping, analysis, and visualization. The inherent multi-modality of connectome datasets poses new challenges for data organization, integration, and sharing. We have designed and implemented the Connectome Viewer Toolkit - a set of free and extensible open source neuroimaging tools written in Python. The key components of the toolkit are as follows: (1) The Connectome File Format is an XML-based container format to standardize multi-modal data integration and structured metadata annotation. (2) The Connectome File Format Library enables management and sharing of connectome files. (3) The Connectome Viewer is an integrated research and development environment for visualization and analysis of multi-modal connectome data. The Connectome Viewer's plugin architecture supports extensions with network analysis packages and an interactive scripting shell, to enable easy development and community contributions. Integration with tools from the scientific Python community allows the leveraging of numerous existing libraries for powerful connectome data mining, exploration, and comparison. We demonstrate the applicability of the Connectome Viewer Toolkit using Diffusion MRI datasets processed by the Connectome Mapper. The Connectome Viewer Toolkit is available from http://www.cmtk.org/

Precision and scaling in morphogen gradient read-out.

Morphogen gradients infer cell fate as a function of cellular position. Experiments in Drosophila embryos have shown that the Bicoid (Bcd) gradient is precise and exhibits some degree of scaling. We present experimental results on the precision of Bcd target genes for embryos with a single, double or quadruple dose of bicoid demonstrating that precision is highest at mid-embryo and position dependent, rather than gene dependent. This confirms that the major contribution to precision is achieved already at the Bcd gradient formation. Modeling this dynamic process, we investigate precision for inter-embryo fluctuations in different parameters affecting gradient formation. Within our modeling framework, the observed precision can only be achieved by a transient Bcd profile. Studying different extensions of our modeling framework reveals that scaling is generally position dependent and decreases toward the posterior pole. Our measurements confirm this trend, indicating almost perfect scaling except for anterior most expression domains, which overcompensate fluctuations in embryo length.

Value of positron emission tomography in full-thickness chest wall resections for malignancies.

Preoperative imaging for resection of chest wall malignancies is generally performed by computed tomography (CT). We evaluated the role of (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) in planning full-thickness chest wall resections for malignancies. We retrospectively included 18 consecutive patients operated from 2004 to 2006 at our institution. Tumor extent was measured by CT and PET, using the two largest perpendicular tumor extensions in the chest wall plane to compute the tumor surface assuming an elliptical shape. Imaging measurements were compared to histopathology assessment of tumor borders. CT assessment consistently overestimated the tumor size as compared to PET (+64% vs. +1%, P<0.001). Moreover, PET was significantly better than CT at defining the size of lesions >24 cm(2) corresponding to a mean diameter >5.5 cm or an ellipse of >4 cm x 7.6 cm (positive predictive value 80% vs. 44% and specificity 93% vs. 64%, respectively). Metabolic PET imaging was superior to CT for defining the extent of chest wall tumors, particularly for tumors with a diameter >5.5 cm. PET can complement CT in planning full-thickness chest wall resection for malignancies, but its true value remains to be determined in larger, prospective studies.

Computer-Aided Business Model Design

There is a lack of dedicated tools for business model design at a strategic level. However, in today's economic world the need to be able to quickly reinvent a company's business model is essential to stay competitive. This research focused on identifying the functionalities that are necessary in a computer-aided design (CAD) tool for the design of business models in a strategic context. Using design science research methodology a series of techniques and prototypes have been designed and evaluated to offer solutions to the problem. The work is a collection of articles which can be grouped into three parts: First establishing the context of how the Business Model Canvas (BMC) is used to design business models and explore the way in which CAD can contribute to the design activity. The second part extends on this by proposing new technics and tools which support elicitation, evaluation (assessment) and evolution of business models design with CAD. This includes features such as multi-color tagging to easily connect elements, rules to validate coherence of business models and features that are adapted to the correct business model proficiency level of its users. A new way to describe and visualize multiple versions of a business model and thereby help in addressing the business model as a dynamic object was also researched. The third part explores extensions to the business model canvas such as an intermediary model which helps IT alignment by connecting business model and enterprise architecture. And a business model pattern for privacy in a mobile environment, using privacy as a key value proposition. The prototyped techniques and proposition for using CAD tools in business model modeling will allow commercial CAD developers to create tools that are better suited to the needs of practitioners.

Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. METHODS: We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. RESULTS: We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.

Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

El treball assalariat en els masos de la Catalunya interior al segle XIX. L'exemple del mas Santmartí

Malgrat que el mas es considera una unitat d'explotació de caracter familiar, les múltiples tasques que s'hi havien de fer obligaven sovint els amos a cercar mà d'obra fora de la familia. Aquesta necessitat augmentava a mesura que el conjunt de les terres sobrepassava I'extensió necessaria per a garantir I'autosuficiència familiar. En aquest article ens proposem d'analitzar el volum i la incidència del treball dels jornalers en el conjunt de les tasques d'un mas, a travès de l'exemple del mas Santmartí. Es tracta d'un mas que actualment pertany al municipi de Sallent, a la comarca del Bages, que ja apareix documentat a l'edat mitjana com un dels masos integrants de la quadra i la parroquia de Sant Martí de Serraïma. Va sobreviure a la crisi del segle XIV, de la qual es va beneficiar aglutinant masos rònecs. A partir del segle XVIII va iniciar una expansió del conreu dels cereals, de l'olivera i, sobretot, de la vinya, que es va mantenir fins a la segona meitat del XIX -cal no oblidar que el Bages era una comarca essencialment vitícola. Però, tot i que els amos van incrementar el nombre de vinyes que explotaven directament, van optar per establir-ne una gran part a rabassa. Així, doncs, segons l'amillarament, l'any 1861 l'hereu portava en conreu directe 23 Q 1 lq de cereals, 6 Q d'oliveres i 35 Q 4q de vinya. Alhora, 96 Q 4 q eren menades per rabassaires. És evident que les extensions de conreus explotades directament pels hereus exigien ma d'obra suplementària, de fora del nucli familiar.

Structure-function analysis of the human TFIIB-related factor II protein reveals an essential role for the C-terminal domain in RNA polymerase III transcription.

The transcription factors TFIIB, Brf1, and Brf2 share related N-terminal zinc ribbon and core domains. TFIIB bridges RNA polymerase II (Pol II) with the promoter-bound preinitiation complex, whereas Brf1 and Brf2 are involved, as part of activities also containing TBP and Bdp1 and referred to here as Brf1-TFIIIB and Brf2-TFIIIB, in the recruitment of Pol III. Brf1-TFIIIB recruits Pol III to type 1 and 2 promoters and Brf2-TFIIIB to type 3 promoters such as the human U6 promoter. Brf1 and Brf2 both have a C-terminal extension absent in TFIIB, but their C-terminal extensions are unrelated. In yeast Brf1, the C-terminal extension interacts with the TBP/TATA box complex and contributes to the recruitment of Bdp1. Here we have tested truncated Brf2, as well as Brf2/TFIIB chimeric proteins for U6 transcription and for assembly of U6 preinitiation complexes. Our results characterize functions of various human Brf2 domains and reveal that the C-terminal domain is required for efficient association of the protein with U6 promoter-bound TBP and SNAP(c), a type 3 promoter-specific transcription factor, and for efficient recruitment of Bdp1. This in turn suggests that the C-terminal extensions in Brf1 and Brf2 are crucial to specific recruitment of Pol III over Pol II.

Wigner higher-order spectra: definition, properties, computation and application to transient signal analysis

The Wigner higher order moment spectra (WHOS)are defined as extensions of the Wigner-Ville distribution (WD)to higher order moment spectra domains. A general class oftime-frequency higher order moment spectra is also defined interms of arbitrary higher order moments of the signal as generalizations of the Cohen’s general class of time-frequency representations. The properties of the general class of time-frequency higher order moment spectra can be related to theproperties of WHOS which are, in fact, extensions of the properties of the WD. Discrete time and frequency Wigner higherorder moment spectra (DTF-WHOS) distributions are introduced for signal processing applications and are shown to beimplemented with two FFT-based algorithms. One applicationis presented where the Wigner bispectrum (WB), which is aWHOS in the third-order moment domain, is utilized for thedetection of transient signals embedded in noise. The WB iscompared with the WD in terms of simulation examples andanalysis of real sonar data. It is shown that better detectionschemes can be derived, in low signal-to-noise ratio, when theWB is applied.

GENCODE: producing a reference annotation for ENCODE.

BACKGROUND: The GENCODE consortium was formed to identify and map all protein-coding genes within the ENCODE regions. This was achieved by a combination of initial manual annotation by the HAVANA team, experimental validation by the GENCODE consortium and a refinement of the annotation based on these experimental results. RESULTS: The GENCODE gene features are divided into eight different categories of which only the first two (known and novel coding sequence) are confidently predicted to be protein-coding genes. 5' rapid amplification of cDNA ends (RACE) and RT-PCR were used to experimentally verify the initial annotation. Of the 420 coding loci tested, 229 RACE products have been sequenced. They supported 5' extensions of 30 loci and new splice variants in 50 loci. In addition, 46 loci without evidence for a coding sequence were validated, consisting of 31 novel and 15 putative transcripts. We assessed the comprehensiveness of the GENCODE annotation by attempting to validate all the predicted exon boundaries outside the GENCODE annotation. Out of 1,215 tested in a subset of the ENCODE regions, 14 novel exon pairs were validated, only two of them in intergenic regions. CONCLUSION: In total, 487 loci, of which 434 are coding, have been annotated as part of the GENCODE reference set available from the UCSC browser. Comparison of GENCODE annotation with RefSeq and ENSEMBL show only 40% of GENCODE exons are contained within the two sets, which is a reflection of the high number of alternative splice forms with unique exons annotated. Over 50% of coding loci have been experimentally verified by 5' RACE for EGASP and the GENCODE collaboration is continuing to refine its annotation of 1% human genome with the aid of experimental validation.

Volcanic debris avalanche deposits of the upper Maronne valley (Cantal Volcano, France): evidence for contrasted formation and transport mechanisms

The deposits of two volcanic debris avalanches (VDA I and II) that occur in the upper Maronne valley, northwest sector of Cantal Volcano, France, were studied to establish their mechanisms of formation, transport and deposition. These two volcanic debris avalanches that clearly differ with regard to their structures, textures and extensions, exemplify the wide spectrum of events associated with large-scale sector collapse. VDA I is voluminous (similar to1 km(3) in the upper Maronne valley) and widespread. The deposits comprise two distinct facies: the block facies that forms the intermediate and upper part of the unit and the mixed facies that crops out essentially at the base of the unit. The block facies consists of more or less brecciated lava, block-and-ash-flow breccia and pumice-flow tuff megablocks set in breccias resulting from block disaggregation. Mixing and differential movements are almost absent in this part of the VDA. The mixed facies consists of breccias rich in fine particles that originate from block disagregation, as well as being picked up from the substratum during movement. Mixing and differential movements are predominant in this zone. Analysis of fractures on lava megablocks suggests that shear stress during the initial sliding is the principal cause of fracture. These data strongly indicate that VDA I is purely gravitational and argue for a model in which the initial sliding mass transforms into a flow due to differential in situ fragmentation caused by the shear stress. VDA II is restricted to low-topography areas. Its volume, in the studied area, is about 0.3 km(3). The deposits consist of brecciated, rounded blocks and megablocks set in a fine-grained matrix composed essentially of volcanic glass. This unit is stratified, with a massive layer that contains all the megablocks at the base and in the intermediate part, and in the upper part a normally graded layer that contains only blocks <1 m in size. The different lithologies present are totally mixed. These observations suggest that VDA II may be of the Bezymianny-type and that it underwent a flow transformation from a turbulent to a stratified flow consisting of a basal hyperconcentrated laminar body overlain by a dilute layer. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Distance Transforms on Gray-Level Surfaces

This thesis studies gray-level distance transforms, particularly the Distance Transform on Curved Space (DTOCS). The transform is produced by calculating distances on a gray-level surface. The DTOCS is improved by definingmore accurate local distances, and developing a faster transformation algorithm. The Optimal DTOCS enhances the locally Euclidean Weighted DTOCS (WDTOCS) with local distance coefficients, which minimize the maximum error from the Euclideandistance in the image plane, and produce more accurate global distance values.Convergence properties of the traditional mask operation, or sequential localtransformation, and the ordered propagation approach are analyzed, and compared to the new efficient priority pixel queue algorithm. The Route DTOCS algorithmdeveloped in this work can be used to find and visualize shortest routes between two points, or two point sets, along a varying height surface. In a digital image, there can be several paths sharing the same minimal length, and the Route DTOCS visualizes them all. A single optimal path can be extracted from the route set using a simple backtracking algorithm. A new extension of the priority pixel queue algorithm produces the nearest neighbor transform, or Voronoi or Dirichlet tessellation, simultaneously with the distance map. The transformation divides the image into regions so that each pixel belongs to the region surrounding the reference point, which is nearest according to the distance definition used. Applications and application ideas for the DTOCS and its extensions are presented, including obstacle avoidance, image compression and surface roughness evaluation.

Multi-purpose infrastructure for delivering and supporting mobile context-aware applications

The use of contextual information in mobile devices is receiving increasing attention in mobile and ubiquitous computing research. An important requirement for mobile development today is that devices should be able to interact with the context. In this paper we present a series of contributions regarding previous work on context-awareness. In the first place, we describe a client-server architecture that provides a mechanism for preparing target non context-aware applications in order to be delivered as context-aware applications in a semi-automatic way. Secondly, the framework used in the server to instantiate specific components for context-awareness, the Implicit Plasticity Framework, provides independence from the underlying mobile technology used in client device, as it is shown in the case studies presented. Finally, proposed infrastructure deals with the interaction among different context constraints provided by diverse sensors. All of these contributions are extensions to the infrastructure based on the Dichotomic View of plasticity, which now offers multi-purpose support.