The risk of chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area

Background. Chikungunya, an alphavirus of the Togaviridae family, causes a febrile disease transmitted to humans by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. This infection is reaching endemic levels in many Southeast Asian countries. Symptoms include sudden onset of fever, chills, headache, nausea, vomiting, joint pain with or without swelling, low back pain, and rash. According to the World Health Organization, there are 2 billion people living in Aedes-infested areas. In addition, traveling to these areas is popular, making the potential risk of infections transmitted by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes very high. Methods. We proposed a mathematical model to estimate the risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in an Aedes-infested area by taking the prevalence of dengue fever into account. The basic reproduction number for chikungunya fever R-0chik can be written as a function of the basic reproduction number of dengue R-0dengue by calculating the ratio R-0chik/R-0dengue. From R-0chik, we estimated the force of infection and the risk of acquiring the disease both for local residents of a dengue-endemic area and for travelers to this area. Results. We calculated that R-0chik is 64.4% that of R-0dengue. The model was applied to a hypothetical situation, namely, estimating the individual risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area, both for local inhabitants (22% in steady state) and for visiting travelers (from 0.31% to 1.23% depending on the time spent in the area). Conclusions. The method proposed based on the output of a dynamical model is innovative and provided an estimation of the risk of infection, both for local inhabitants and for visiting travelers.

Association between degenerative aortic valve disease and long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors: results of the longitudinal population-based KORA/MONICA survey

Degenerative aortic valve disease (DAVD), a common finding in the elderly, is associated with an increased risk of death due to cardiovascular causes. Taking advantage of its longitudinal design, this study evaluates the prevalence of DAVD and its temporal associations with long-term exposure to cardiovascular risk factors in the general population. We studied 953 subjects (aged 25-74 years) from a random sample of German residents. Risk factors had been determined at a baseline investigation in 1994/95. At a follow-up investigation, 10 years later, standardized echocardiography determined aortic valve morphology and aortic valve area (AVA) as well as left ventricular geometry and function. At the follow-up study, the overall prevalence of DAVD was 28%. In logistic regression models adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors at baseline age (OR 2.0 [1.7-2.3] per 10 years, P < 0.001), active smoking (OR 1.7 [1.1-2.4], P = 0.009) and elevated total cholesterol levels (OR 1.2 [1.1-1.3] per increase of 20 mg/dL, P < 0.001) were significantly related to DAVD at follow-up. Furthermore, age, baseline status of smoking, and total cholesterol level were significant predictors of a smaller AVA at follow-up study. In contrast, hypertension and obesity had no detectable relationship with long-term changes of aortic valve structure. In the general population we observed a high prevalence of DAVD that is associated with long-term exposure to elevated cholesterol levels and active smoking. These findings strengthen the notion that smoking cessation and cholesterol lowering are promising treatment targets for prevention of DAVD.

Risk of Potential Drug-Drug Interactions among Brazilian Elderly A Population-Based, Cross-Sectional Study

Background: Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are one of the main causes of adverse reactions related to medications, being responsible for up to 23% of hospital admissions. However, only a few studies have evaluated this problem in elderly Brazilians. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of potential DDIs (PDDIs) in community-dwelling elderly people in Brazil, analyse these interactions with regard to severity and clinical implications, and identify associated factors. Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study was carried out involving 2143 elderly (aged 60 years) residents of the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Data were obtained from the SABE (Saude, Bem estar e Envelhecimento [Health, Well-Being, and Aging]) survey, which is a multicentre study carried out in seven countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, coordinated by the Pan-American Health Organization. PDDIs were analysed using a computerized program and categorized according to level of severity, onset, mechanism and documentation in the literature. The STATA software statistical package was used for data analysis, and logistic regression was conducted to determine whether variables were associated with PDDIs. Results: Analysis revealed that 568 (26.5%) of the elderly population included in the study were taking medications that could lead to a DDI. Almost two-thirds (64.4%) of the elderly population exposed to PDDIs were women, 50.7% were aged >= 75 years, 71.7% reported having fair or poor health and 65.8% took 2-5 medications. A total of 125 different PDDIs were identified; the treatment combination of an ACE inhibitor with a thiazide or loop diuretic (associated with hypotension) was the most frequent cause of PDDIs (n=322 patients; 56.7% of individuals with PDDIs). Analysis of the PDDIs revealed that 70.4% were of moderate severity, 64.8% were supported by good quality evidence and 56.8% were considered of delayed onset. The multivariate analysis showed that the risk of a PDDI was significantly increased among elderly individuals using six or more medications (odds ratio [OR] 3.37) and in patients with hypertension (OR 2.56), diabetes mellitus (OR 1.73) or heart problems (OR 3.36). Conclusions: Approximately one-quarter of the elderly population living in Sao Paulo could be taking two or more potentially interacting medicines. Polypharmacy predisposes elderly individuals to PDDIs. More than half of these drug combinations (57.6%, n = 72) were part of commonly employed treatment regimens and may be responsible for adverse reactions that compromise the safety of elderly individuals, especially at home. Educational initiatives are needed to avoid unnecessary risks.

Transport safety for older people: A study of their experiences, perceptions and management needs

With evidence of increasing accident risk due to age-related declines in health and cognition affecting driver performance, there is a need for research promoting safe mobility of older people. The present study aimed to identify transport options and licensing issues for a group of older people in an Australian community. Ninety-five participants aged 75 and over were interviewed about their driving status and accident record and tested for cognitive ability. After stratification on cognitive level and driver status (current, ex-driver or non-driver), 30 were selected for further in-depth interviews concerning demographics, licence status and impact of change, travel options available and used, and travel characteristics. Considerable reliance on the motor vehicle as the mode of transport and the decision to cease driving were major quality-of-life issues. There was little evidence of planning and support in making the decision to stop driving. Some differences in transport decisions on the basis of cognitive level were evident; however, people with severely compromised cognitive ability (and, therefore, unable to give informed consent) had been excluded. The study suggested the need for resources to assist older people/carers/health professionals to plan for the transition from driver to non-driver and to manage alternative transport options more effectively

Risk of drug interaction: combination of antidepressants and other drugs

OBJECTIVE: To assess the frequency of combination of antidepressants with other drugs and risk of drug interactions in the setting public hospital units in Brazil. METHODS: Prescriptions of all patients admitted to a public hospital from November 1996 to February 1997 were surveyed from the hospital's data processing center in São Paulo, Brazil. A manual search of case notes of all patients admitted to the psychiatric unit from January 1993 to December 1995 and all patients registered in the affective disorders outpatient clinic in December 1996 was carried out. Patients taking any antidepressant were identified and concomitant use of drugs was checked. By means of a software program (Micromedex®) drug interactions were identified. RESULTS: Out of 6,844 patients admitted to the hospital, 63 (0.9%) used antidepressants and 16 (25.3%) were at risk of drug interaction. Out of 311 patients in the psychiatric unit, 63 (20.2%) used antidepressants and 13 of them (20.6%) were at risk. Out of 87 patients in the affective disorders outpatient clinic, 43 (49.4%) took antidepressants and 7 (16.2%) were at risk. In general, the use of antidepressants was recorded in 169 patients and 36 (21.3%) were at risk of drug interactions. Twenty different forms of combinations at risk of drug interactions were identified: four were classified as mild, 15 moderate and one severe interaction. CONCLUSION: In the hospital general units the number of drug interactions per patient was higher than in the psychiatric unit; and prescription for depression was lower than expected.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

HIV risk practices by female sex workers according to workplace

OBJECTIVE To investigate differences in HIV infection- related risk practices by Female Sex Workers according to workplace and the effects of homophily on estimating HIV prevalence. METHODS Data from 2,523 women, recruited using Respondent-Driven Sampling, were used for the study carried out in 10 Brazilian cities in 2008-2009. The study included female sex workers aged 18 and over. The questionnaire was completed by the subjects and included questions on characteristics of professional activity, sexual practices, use of drugs, HIV testing, and access to health services. HIV quick tests were conducted. The participants were classified in two groups according to place of work: on the street or indoor venues, like nightclubs and saunas. To compare variable distributions by place of work, we used Chi-square homogeneity tests, taking into consideration unequal selection probabilities as well as the structure of dependence between observations. We tested the effect of homophily by workplace on estimated HIV prevalence. RESULTS The highest HIV risk practices were associated with: working on the streets, lower socioeconomic status, low regular smear test coverage, higher levels of crack use and higher levels of syphilis serological scars as well as higher prevalence of HIV infection. The effect of homophily was higher among sex workers in indoor venues. However, it did not affect the estimated prevalence of HIV, even after using a post-stratification by workplace procedure. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that strategies should focus on extending access to, and utilization of, health services. Prevention policies should be specifically aimed at street workers. Regarding the application of Respondent-Driven Sampling, the sample should be sufficient to estimate transition probabilities, as the network develops more quickly among sex workers in indoor venues.

Geospatial database generation from digital newspapers: use case for risk and disaster domains.

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Toxoplasma-IgM and IgG-avidity in single samples from areas with a high infection rate can determine the risk of mother-to-child transmission

Anti-Toxoplasma IgG-avidity was determined in 168 serum samples from IgG- and IgM-positive pregnant women at various times during pregnancy, in order to evaluate the predictive value for risk of mother-to-child transmission in a single sample, taking the limitations of conventional serology into account. The neonatal IgM was considered the serologic marker of transmission. Fluorometric tests for IgG, IgM (immunocapture) and IgG-avidity were performed. Fifty-one of the 128 pregnant women tested gave birth in the hospital and neonatal IgM was obtained. The results showed 32 (62.75%) pregnant women having high avidity, IgM indexes between 0.6 and 2.4, and no infected newborn. Nineteen (37.25%) had low or inconclusive avidity, IgM indexes between 0.6 and 11.9, and five infected newborns and one stillbirth. In two infected newborns and the stillbirth maternal IgM indexes were low and in one infected newborn the only maternal parameter that suggested fetal risk was IgG-avidity. In the present study, IgG-avidity performed in single samples from positive IgM pregnant women helped to determine the risk of transmission at any time during pregnancy, especially when the indexes of the two tests were analysed with respect to gestational age. This model may be less expensive in developing countries where there is a high prevalence of infection than the follow-up of susceptible mothers until childbirth with monthly serology, and it creates a new perspective for the diagnosis of congenital toxoplasmosis.

Avaliação das melhores técnicas disponíveis relativas à refrigeração industrial e às emissões resultantes da armazenagem

Esta dissertação foi realizada em colaboração com o grupo empresarial Monteiro, Ribas e teve como principais objetivos efetuar uma avaliação das melhores técnicas disponíveis relativas à refrigeração industrial e às emissões resultantes da armazenagem. O primeiro objetivo teve como alvo todas as instalações da Monteiro, Ribas enquanto que o segundo objetivo se debruçou sobre Monteiro, Ribas, Embalagens Flexíveis, S.A.. Para cumprir estes objetivos, inicialmente efetuou-se um levantamento das melhores técnicas disponíveis apresentadas nos respetivos documentos de referência. Em seguida selecionaram-se as técnicas que se adequavam às condições e às instalações em estudo e procedeu-se a uma avaliação de forma a verificar o grau de implementação das medidas sugeridas no BREF (Best Available Techniques Reference Document). Relativamente aos sistemas de refrigeração industrial verificou-se que estão implementadas quase todas as medidas referenciadas no respetivo documento de referência. Isto prende-se com o facto dos sistemas de refrigeração existentes no complexo industrial Monteiro, Ribas serem relativamente recentes. Foram implementados no ano de 2012, e são caracterizados por apresentarem uma conceção moderna com elevada eficiência. No que diz respeito à armazenagem de produtos químicos perigosos, a instalação em estudo, apresenta algumas inconformidades, uma vez que a maioria das técnicas mencionadas no BREF não se encontram implementadas, pelo que foi necessário efetuar uma avaliação de riscos ambientais, com recurso à metodologia proposta pela Norma Espanhola UNE 150008:2008 – Análise e Avaliação do Risco Ambiental. Para isso procedeu-se então à formulação de vários cenários de riscos e à quantificação de riscos para à Monteiro, Ribas Embalagens Flexíveis S.A., tendo-se apurado que os riscos estavam avaliados como moderados a altos. Por fim foram sugeridas algumas medidas de prevenção e de minimização do risco que a instalação deve aplicar, como por exemplo, o parque de resíduos perigosos deve ser equipado com kits de contenção de derrames (material absorvente), procedimentos a realizar em caso de emergência, fichas de dados de segurança e o extintor deve ser colocado num local de fácil visualização. No transporte de resíduos perigosos, para o respetivo parque, é aconselhável utilizar bacias de contenção de derrames portáteis e kits de contenção de derrames. Relativamente ao armazém de produtos químicos perigosos é recomendado que se proceda a sua reformulação tendo em conta as MTD apresentadas no subcapítulo 5.2.3 desta dissertação.

Development of an integrative approach for the characterization of ecological risk on marine transition ecosystems: the Sado Estuary as a case study

Estuaries and other transitional waters are complex ecosystems critically important as nursery and shelter areas for organisms. Also, humans depend on estuaries for multiple socio-economical activities such as urbanism, tourism, heavy industry, (taking advantage of shipping), fisheries and aquaculture, the development of which led to strong historical pressures, with emphasis on pollution. The degradation of estuarine environmental quality implies ecologic, economic and social prejudice, hence the importance of evaluating environmental quality through the identification of stressors and impacts. The Sado Estuary (SW Portugal) holds the characteristics of industrialized estuaries, which results in multiple adverse impacts. Still, it has recently been considered moderately contaminated. In fact, many studies were conducted in the past few years, albeit scattered due to the absence of true biomonitoring programmes. As such, there is a need to integrate the information, in order to obtain a holistic perspective of the area able to assist management and decision-making. As such, a geographical information system (GIS) was created based on sediment contamination and biomarker data collected from a decade-long time-series of publications. Four impacted and a reference areas were identified, characterized by distinct sediment contamination patterns related to different hot spots and diffuse sources of toxicants. The potential risk of sediment-bound toxicants was determined by contrasting the levels of pollutants with available sediment quality guidelines, followed by their integration through the Sediment Quality guideline Quotient (SQG-Q). The SQG-Q estimates per toxicant or class was then subjected to georreferencing and statistical analyses between the five distinct areas and seasons. Biomarker responses were integrated through the Biomarkers Consistency Indice and georreferenced as well through GIS. Overall, in spite of the multiple biological traits surveyed, the biomarker data (from several organisms) are accordant with sediment contamination. The most impacted areas were the shipyard area and adjacent industrial belt, followed by urban and agricultural grounds. It is evident that the estuary, although globally moderately impacted, is very heterogeneous and affected by a cocktail of contaminants, especially metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Although elements (like copper, zinc and even arsenic) may originate from the geology of the hydrographic basin of the Sado River, the majority of the remaining contaminants results from human activities. The present work revealed that the estuary should be divided into distinct biogeographic units, in order to implement effective measures to safeguard environmental quality.

The economic assessment of health benefits of active transport

Purpose:This chapter addresses the economic assessment of health benefits of active transport and presents most recent valuation studies with an overview of progresses made towards the inclusion of health benefits in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of active transport. Methodology/approach: It is built upon the contracted study for the World Health Organization (WHO) on the economic appraisal of health benefits of walking and cycling investments at the city of Viana do Castelo, the former pilot study in Portugal for evaluating the health benefits of non-motorized transport using the WHO Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT). The relative risk values adopted in the HEAT for walking refer to adult population of the age group 20â 74 years and the assessment focus in on average physical activity/regular behaviour of groups of pedestrians and all-cause mortality health impacts. During the case study, it was developed and implemented a mobility survey which aimed to collect behavioural data before and after a street intervention in the historic centre. Findings: Most recent appraisal guidance of walking and cycling and health impact modelling studies reviewed confirm that further research is expected before a more comprehensive appraisal procedure can be adopted in Europe, able to integrate physical activity effects along with other health risks such as those related to road traffic injuries and exposure to air pollution. Social implications: The health benefits assessment of walking investments helped local decision-makers to progress towards sustainable mobility options in the city. Making the population aware of the potential health benefits of regular walking can encourage more people to uptake active transport as part of their daily activities. Originality/value: This study provides a useful review of the health benefits of active transport with a comprehensive analysis of valuation studies, presenting value-added information. It then reports a former assessment of the health effects of active transport in the Portuguese context (case study) using the state-of-the-art economic analysis tool (HEAT) of the World Health Organization which is believed to contribute to a paradigm shift in the transport policy and appraisal practice given the need of shaping future cities (and their citizens) for health through more investments in active transport.

Assessment of the Cardiovascular Risk and Physical Activity of Individuals Exercising at a Public Park in the City of São Paulo

OBJECTIVE: Physical exercise helps to prevent cardiovascular disorders. Campaigns promoting exercise have taken many people to the parks of our city. The most appropriate exercise for preventing cardiovascular disorders is the aerobic modality; inappropriate exercise acutely increases cardiovascular risk, especially in individuals at higher risk. Therefore, assessing the cardiovascular risk of these individuals and their physical activities is of practical value. METHODS: In the Parque Fernando Costa, we carried out the project "Exercício e Coração" (Exercise and Heart) involving 226 individuals. Assessment of the cardiovascular risk and of the physical activity practiced by the individuals exercising at that park was performed with a questionnaire and measurement of the following parameters: blood pressure, weight, height, and waist/hip ratio. The individuals were lectured on the benefits provided by exercise and how to correctly exercise. Each participant received a customized exercise prescription. RESULTS: In regard to risk, 43% of the individuals had health problems and 7% of the healthy individuals had symptoms that could be attributed to heart disorders. High blood pressure was observed in a large amount of the population. In regard to the adequacy of the physical activity, the individuals exercised properly. The project was well accepted, because the participants not only appreciated the initiative, but also reported altering their exercise habits after taking part in the project. CONCLUSION: Data obtained in the current study point to the need to be more careful in assessing the health of individuals who exercise at parks, suggesting that city parks should have a sector designated for assessing and guiding physical activity.

Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy. METHODS: We followed 515 adult patients taking oral anticoagulants to measure the first major bleeding event over a 12-month follow-up period. The performance of each score to predict the risk of major bleeding and the physician's subjective assessment of bleeding risk were compared with the C statistic. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of a first major bleeding event during follow-up was 6.8% (35/515). According to the 7 scoring systems, the proportions of major bleeding ranged from 3.0% to 5.7% for low-risk, 6.7% to 9.9% for intermediate-risk, and 7.4% to 15.4% for high-risk patients. The overall predictive accuracy of the scores was poor, with the C statistic ranging from 0.54 to 0.61 and not significantly different from each other (P=.84). Only the Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation score performed slightly better than would be expected by chance (C statistic, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.70). The performance of the scores was not statistically better than physicians' subjective risk assessments (C statistic, 0.55; P=.94). CONCLUSION: The performance of 7 clinical scoring systems in predicting major bleeding events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy was poor and not better than physicians' subjective assessments.

Brain Glucose Transport and Phosphorylation Under Acute Insulin-Induced Hypoglycemia in Mice: An 18F-FDG PET Study.

We addressed the questions of how cerebral glucose transport and phosphorylation change under acute hypoglycemia and what the underlying mechanisms of adaptation are. METHODS: Quantitative (18)F-FDG PET combined with the acquisition of real-time arterial input function was performed on mice. Hypoglycemia was induced and maintained by insulin infusion. PET data were analyzed with the 2-tissue-compartment model for (18)F-FDG, and the results were evaluated with Michaelis-Menten saturation kinetics. RESULTS: Glucose clearance from plasma to brain (K1,glc) and the phosphorylation rate constant increased with decreasing plasma glucose (Gp), in particular at a Gp of less than 2.5 mmol/L. Estimated cerebral glucose extraction ratios taking into account an increased cerebral blood flow (CBF) at a Gp of less than 2 mmol/L were between 0.14 and 0.79. CBF-normalized K1,glc values were in agreement with saturation kinetics. Phosphorylation rate constants indicated intracellular glucose depletion at a Gp of less than 2-3 mmol/L. When brain regions were compared, glucose transport under hypoglycemia was lowest in the hypothalamus. CONCLUSION: Alterations in glucose transport and phosphorylation, as well as intracellular glucose depletion, under acute hypoglycemia can be modeled by saturation kinetics taking into account an increase in CBF. Distinct transport kinetics in the hypothalamus may be involved in its glucose-sensing function.