Is the future of electoral reform local?

The Electoral Reform Society has recently published two reports putting the case for electoral reform in local government. These suggest acceptance, in the wake of defeat in the 2011 Alternative Vote referendum, that the group’s ultimate goal of change to the Westminster electoral system is unlikely to be fulfilled soon and that a more gradual strategy is therefore needed. This paper examines this shift by asking three questions. First, is Westminster electoral reform really a dead letter? Second, is local electoral reform more likely—and, if so, just how much more likely? Third, would local electoral reform matter in itself?

Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance--elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB– elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9 %) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0 %) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the “no feedback” case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

The impact of salinity perturbations on the future uptake of heat by the Atlantic Ocean

Anthropogenic ocean heat uptake is a key factor in determining climate change and sea-level rise. There is considerable uncertainty in projections of freshwater forcing of the ocean, with the potential to influence ocean heat uptake. We investigatethis by adding either -0.1 Sv or +0.1 Sv freshwater to the Atlantic in global climate model simulations, simultaneously imposing an atmospheric CO2 increase. The resulting changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are roughly equal and opposite (±2Sv). The impact of the perturbation on ocean heat content is more complex, although it is relatively small (~5%) compared to the total anthropogenic heat uptake. Several competing processes either accelerate or retard warming at different depths. Whilst positive freshwater perturbations cause an overall heating of the Atlantic, negative perturbations produce insignificant net changes in heat content. The processes active in our model appear robust, although their net result is likely model- and experiment-dependent.

Whole life thinking and engineering the future

Whole-life thinking for engineers working on the built environment has become more important in a fast changing world.Engineers are increasingly concerned with complex systems, in which the parts interact with each other and with the outside world in many ways – the relationships between the parts determine how the system behaves. Systems thinking provides one approach to developing a more robust whole life approach. Systems thinking is a process of understanding how things influence one another within a wider perspective. Complexity, chaos, and risk are endemic in all major projects. New approaches are needed to produce more reliable whole life predictions. Best value, rather than lowest cost can be achieved by using whole-life appraisal as part of the design and delivery strategy.

Back to the future: implications for the field of HRM of the multistakeholder perspective proposed 30 years ago

Thirty years on from the seminal works on human resource management (HRM) by Beer et al., we examine how the subject has developed. We offer a normative review, based on that model and critique the assumption that the business of HRM is solely to improve returns to owners and shareholders. We identify the importance of a wider view of stakeholders to practitioners and how academic studies on the periphery of HRM are beginning to adopt such a view. We argue that the HRM studies so far have given us much valuable learning but that the subject has now reached a point where we need to take a wider, more contextual, more multilayered approach founded on the long-term needs of all relevant stakeholders. The original Beer et al. model remains a valuable guide to the next 30 years of HRM.

The future of stakeholder management theory: a temporal perspective

We propose adding a temporal dimension to stakeholder management theory, and assess the implications thereof for firm-level competitive advantage. We argue that a firm’s competitive advantage fundamentally depends on its capacity for stakeholder management related, transformational adaptation over time. Our new temporal stakeholder management approach builds upon insights from both the resource-based view (RBV) in strategic management and institutional theory. Stakeholder agendas and their relative salience to the firm evolve over time, a phenomenon well understood in the literature, and requiring what we call level 1 adaptation. However, the dominant direction of stakeholder pressures can also change, namely, from supporting resource heterogeneity at the firm level to fostering industry homogeneity, and vice versa. When dominant stakeholder pressures shift from supporting heterogeneity towards stimulating homogeneity in industry, the firm must engage in level 2 or transformational adaptation. Stakeholders typically provide valuable resources to the firm in an early stage. Without these resources, which foster heterogeneity (in line with RBV thinking), the firm would not exist. At a later stage, stakeholders also contribute to inter-firm homogeneity via isomorphism pressures (in line with institutional theory thinking). Adding a temporal dimension to stakeholder management theory has far reaching implications for this theory’s practical relevance to senior level management in business.

The future of strategic management research: assessing the quality of theory borrowing

In many business schools, the field of strategic management has been elevated to the same status as more traditional subject areas such as finance, marketing and organizational behaviour. However, the field is rather unclearly delineated at present, as a result of the heavy usage of borrowed theories, a phenomenon we discuss in this article. For strategic management to become a legitimate subject area, truly at par with the more conventional fields taught in business schools, we recommend much stronger selectivity when borrowing theories from other areas of scholarly inquiry than management, as the foundation of empirical work. We propose a new model consisting of seven quality tests to assess whether proper selectivity is being applied when ‘importing’ concepts from other fields than management. Our perspective has major implications both for future, evidence-based strategic management research and for the field's key stakeholders such as strategy teachers, practitioners and policy makers – who rely on research outputs from strategy scholars.

Sensory and consumer science methods used with older adults: a review of current methods and recommendations for the future

Capturing the sensory perception and preferences of older adults, whether healthy or with particular disease states, poses major methodological challenges for the sensory community. Currently a vastly under researched area, it is at the same time a vital area of research as alterations in sensory perception can affect daily dietary food choices, intake, health and wellbeing. Tailored sensory methods are needed that take into account the challenges of working with such populations including poor access leading to low patient numbers (study power), cognitive abilities, use of medications, clinical treatments and context (hospitals and care homes). The objective of this paper was to review current analytical and affective sensory methodologies used with different cohorts of healthy and frail older adults, with focus on food preference and liking. We particularly drew attention to studies concerning general ageing as well as to those considering age-related diseases that have an emphasis on malnutrition and weight loss. Pubmed and Web of Science databases were searched to 2014 for relevant articles in English. From this search 75 papers concerning sensory acuity, 41 regarding perceived intensity and 73 relating to hedonic measures were reviewed. Simpler testing methods, such as directional forced choice tests and paired preference tests need to be further explored to determine whether they lead to more reliable results and better inter-cohort comparisons. Finally, sensory quality and related quality of life for older adults suffering from dementia must be included and not ignored in our future actions.

Coming of age in L3 initial stages transfer models: deriving developmental predictions and looking towards the future

Aims: Over the past decade in particular, formal linguistic work within L3 acquisition has concentrated on hypothesizing and empirically determining the source of transfer from previous languages—L1, L2 or both—in L3 grammatical representations. In view of the progressive concern with more advanced stages, we aim to show that focusing on L3 initial stages should be one continued priority of the field, even—or especially—if the field is ready to shift towards modeling L3 development and ultimate attainment. Approach: We argue that L3 learnability is significantly impacted by initial stages transfer, as such forms the basis of the initial L3 interlanguage. To illustrate our point, the insights from studies using initial and intermediary stages L3 data are discussed in light of developmental predictions that derive from the initial stages models. Conclusions: Despite a shared desire to understand the process of L3 acquisition in whole, inclusive of offering developmental L3 theories, we argue that the field does not yet have—although is ever closer to—the data basis needed to effectively do so. Originality: This article seeks to convince the readership for the need of conservatism in L3 acquisition theory building, whereby offering a framework on how and why we can most effectively build on the accumulated knowledge of the L3 initial stages in order to make significant, steady progress. Significance: The arguments exposed here are meant to provide an epistemological base for a tenable framework of formal approaches to L3 interlanguage development and, eventually, ultimate attainment.

The Mixed-Method Library: Qualitative Research and the Future of Assessment in Higher Education

This presentation was offered as part of the CUNY Library Assessment Conference, Reinventing Libraries: Reinventing Assessment, held at the City University of New York in June 2014.