The role of asymmetries in rock-paper-scissors biodiversity models.

The maintenance of biodiversity is a long standing puzzle in ecology. It is a classical result that if the interactions of the species in an ecosystem are chosen in a random way, then complex ecosystems can't sustain themselves, meaning that the structure of the interactions between the species must be a central component on the preservation of biodiversity and on the stability of ecosystems. The rock-paper-scissors model is one of the paradigmatic models that study how biodiversity is maintained. In this model 3 species dominate each other in a cyclic way (mimicking a trophic cycle), that is, rock dominates scissors, that dominates paper, that dominates rock. In the original version of this model, this dominance obeys a 'Z IND 3' symmetry, in the sense that the strength of dominance is always the same. In this work, we break this symmetry, studying the effects of the addition of an asymmetry parameter. In the usual model, in a two dimensional lattice, the species distribute themselves according to spiral patterns, that can be explained by the complex Landau-Guinzburg equation. With the addition of asymmetry, new spatial patterns appear during the transient and the system either ends in a state with spirals, similar to the ones of the original model, or in a state where unstable spatial patterns dominate or in a state where only one species survives (and biodiversity is lost).

Modelizzazione spazio-temporale delle dinamiche di uso del suolo ed analisi comparativa di differenti approcci predittivi. Uso integrato di SIG e telerilevamento nello studio dei processi di deforestazione nella regione La Joyanca in Peten, Guatemala

L’uso frequente dei modelli predittivi per l’analisi di sistemi complessi, naturali o artificiali, sta cambiando il tradizionale approccio alle problematiche ambientali e di rischio. Il continuo miglioramento delle capacità di elaborazione dei computer facilita l’utilizzo e la risoluzione di metodi numerici basati su una discretizzazione spazio-temporale che permette una modellizzazione predittiva di sistemi reali complessi, riproducendo l’evoluzione dei loro patterns spaziali ed calcolando il grado di precisione della simulazione. In questa tesi presentiamo una applicazione di differenti metodi predittivi (Geomatico, Reti Neurali, Land Cover Modeler e Dinamica EGO) in un’area test del Petén, Guatemala. Durante gli ultimi decenni questa regione, inclusa nella Riserva di Biosfera Maya, ha conosciuto una rapida crescita demografica ed un’incontrollata pressione sulle sue risorse naturali. L’area test puó essere suddivisa in sotto-regioni caratterizzate da differenti dinamiche di uso del suolo. Comprendere e quantificare queste differenze permette una migliore approssimazione del sistema reale; é inoltre necessario integrare tutti i parametri fisici e socio-economici, per una rappresentazione più completa della complessità dell’impatto antropico. Data l’assenza di informazioni dettagliate sull’area di studio, quasi tutti i dati sono stati ricavati dall’elaborazione di 11 immagini ETM+, TM e SPOT; abbiamo poi realizzato un’analisi multitemporale dei cambi uso del suolo passati e costruito l’input per alimentare i modelli predittivi. I dati del 1998 e 2000 sono stati usati per la fase di calibrazione per simulare i cambiamenti nella copertura terrestre del 2003, scelta come data di riferimento per la validazione dei risultati. Quest’ultima permette di evidenziare le qualità ed i limiti per ogni modello nelle differenti sub-regioni.

Multi-level models and infrastructures for simulating biological system development

The hierarchical organisation of biological systems plays a crucial role in the pattern formation of gene expression resulting from the morphogenetic processes, where autonomous internal dynamics of cells, as well as cell-to-cell interactions through membranes, are responsible for the emergent peculiar structures of the individual phenotype. Being able to reproduce the systems dynamics at different levels of such a hierarchy might be very useful for studying such a complex phenomenon of self-organisation. The idea is to model the phenomenon in terms of a large and dynamic network of compartments, where the interplay between inter-compartment and intra-compartment events determines the emergent behaviour resulting in the formation of spatial patterns. According to these premises the thesis proposes a review of the different approaches already developed in modelling developmental biology problems, as well as the main models and infrastructures available in literature for modelling biological systems, analysing their capabilities in tackling multi-compartment / multi-level models. The thesis then introduces a practical framework, MS-BioNET, for modelling and simulating these scenarios exploiting the potential of multi-level dynamics. This is based on (i) a computational model featuring networks of compartments and an enhanced model of chemical reaction addressing molecule transfer, (ii) a logic-oriented language to flexibly specify complex simulation scenarios, and (iii) a simulation engine based on the many-species/many-channels optimised version of Gillespie’s direct method. The thesis finally proposes the adoption of the agent-based model as an approach capable of capture multi-level dynamics. To overcome the problem of parameter tuning in the model, the simulators are supplied with a module for parameter optimisation. The task is defined as an optimisation problem over the parameter space in which the objective function to be minimised is the distance between the output of the simulator and a target one. The problem is tackled with a metaheuristic algorithm. As an example of application of the MS-BioNET framework and of the agent-based model, a model of the first stages of Drosophila Melanogaster development is realised. The model goal is to generate the early spatial pattern of gap gene expression. The correctness of the models is shown comparing the simulation results with real data of gene expression with spatial and temporal resolution, acquired in free on-line sources.

Per un'indagine comparata della relazione voce-movimento nel performer

The present study investigates the principles that effect the relationship between voice and movement in performance. The topic stresses a contemporary tendency, which emerges from the work of numerous artits and looks into a research field that has not yet been well explored. The research arises from what I observed and experienced during my performance practical work and what I deepened after theorical studies: expression through movement and voice reflects constant principles. The first two chapters of the former study analyze the compared lines of the inquiry, from a theoretical point of view (interior and exterior voice-movement spatial patterns, and temporal patterns) and a practical point of view referring to body, action and relation. The third one is a survey on 'vocal gesture' as devised by Francesca della Monica, a topic that finds here the first academic investigation, built after nine years sudies with the artist on the oral sources of her teaching. The research is based on practical and theorical sources (especially philosophical studies of Giovanni Piana, Carlo Serra, Merleau-Ponty; performing studies of Grotowski, Laban, Dalcroze, Tomatis; ancient greek philosophy and literature; bodywork tecqniques as Kineseology, Body-mind centering, Alexander, Feldenkrais). The purpose of the study is to theorize, sistematyze and expose clear lines of compared investigation awakening the performer's interest on a central issue of his work and drawing the researcher's attention to make further focusing on the matter. Abstract (Italian) La ricerca va incontro a una tendenza che la contemporaneità pone in risalto con l'opera di numerosi artisti, investigando un campo ancora poco visitato a livello critico. Essa teorizza, sistematizza ed espone le costanti riscontrate nella relazione tra voce e movimento. L'indagine deriva dal presupposto, a me suggerito dalla pratica e dallo scambio con maestri e performer, e qui approfondito e restituito a livello teorico, che nella danza e nel canto, nell'espressione attraverso il movimento o attraverso la voce, si riflettono gli stessi principi. La tesi è articolata in tre capitoli: i primi due sviluppano le linee di indagine comparata, prima da un punto di vista filosofico e poi da un punto di vista pratico, il terzo porta alla luce il concetto di gesto-vocale come inteso da Francesca della Monica, di cui questo studio rappresenta il primo contributo scientifico, aprendo una ricerca nuova agli studi di settore. Il primo capitolo, 'Risonanze', sviluppa le premesse filosofiche della questione, introduce il corpo come veicolo di voce e movimento, affronta il tema del movimento della voce nello spazio interno del corpo e nello spazio di relazione. Legge poi il movimento in termini temporali, secondo i concetti di istante, ritmo, forma e flusso. Il secondo capitolo, 'Costanti', espone le costanti concrete della relazione voce-movimento in riferimento allo spazio interno del corpo, all'azione, allo spazio esterno di relazione. Il terzo capitolo, 'Confini', analizza il gesto vocale, come inteso da Francesca della Monica, concetto sintesi dell'intera ricerca poiché integra, nella sua essenza, il movimento fisico e vocale, restituendo e approfondendo lo spettro di riflessioni emerse nei primi due capitoli. Il gesto vocale, nella sua accezione espressiva, così come il lavoro di Francesca della Monica, è ancora estraneo agli studi di settore e trova in questo studio un primo contributo accademico. Le fonti sono quelle dell'insegnamento orale di Francesca della Monica, che ho seguito per nove anni, fino a desumerne una mia personale sistematizzazione, integrata con altri punti di vista critici. Analizzo i diversi livelli di profondità del gesto vocale scandendo il tema secondo la categoria della relazione: relazioni motorie, relazioni materiche, relazioni spaziali, temporali, compositive e sinestesiche. Le fonti della ricerca sono scaturite da due sorgenti, quella sul campo, e quella della teoria, confluite qui in un unico flusso. Le fonti 'in presa diretta' sono state avvalorate e confrontate con le fonti relative agli studi di settore (in particolare per la filosofia Giovanni Piana, Carlo Serra, Merleau-Ponty, per il teatro, il canto e la danza Grotowski, Laban, Dalcroze, Tomatis) e le bodywork techniques (Kinesiologia, Body-mind centering, metodo Alexander, metodo Feldenkrais). Ampio spazio viene dato alla grecità antica, che propone sull'espressione di voce e movimento un pensiero integrato carico di speculazioni che racchiudono in nuce i principi sviluppati. Lo studio tenta di offrire un livello di lettura idoneo a suscitare l'interesse del performer, e a valere come momento di indagine per lo studioso, che possa da queste basi operare approfondimenti sulle connessioni proposte. L'obiettivo è restituire la conoscenza, intuita in virtù della pratica, elaborata ed arricchita grazie alla teoria, su un nodo fondamentale per gli studi teatrali e recente oggetto di attenzione da parte di critici e artisti.

Modeling and simulation of a synthetic genetic circuit that implements a multicelled behavior in a growing microcolony of E. coli

Synthetic Biology is a relatively new discipline, born at the beginning of the New Millennium, that brings the typical engineering approach (abstraction, modularity and standardization) to biotechnology. These principles aim to tame the extreme complexity of the various components and aid the construction of artificial biological systems with specific functions, usually by means of synthetic genetic circuits implemented in bacteria or simple eukaryotes like yeast. The cell becomes a programmable machine and its low-level programming language is made of strings of DNA. This work was performed in collaboration with researchers of the Department of Electrical Engineering of the University of Washington in Seattle and also with a student of the Corso di Laurea Magistrale in Ingegneria Biomedica at the University of Bologna: Marilisa Cortesi. During the collaboration I contributed to a Synthetic Biology project already started in the Klavins Laboratory. In particular, I modeled and subsequently simulated a synthetic genetic circuit that was ideated for the implementation of a multicelled behavior in a growing bacterial microcolony. In the first chapter the foundations of molecular biology are introduced: structure of the nucleic acids, transcription, translation and methods to regulate gene expression. An introduction to Synthetic Biology completes the section. In the second chapter is described the synthetic genetic circuit that was conceived to make spontaneously emerge, from an isogenic microcolony of bacteria, two different groups of cells, termed leaders and followers. The circuit exploits the intrinsic stochasticity of gene expression and intercellular communication via small molecules to break the symmetry in the phenotype of the microcolony. The four modules of the circuit (coin flipper, sender, receiver and follower) and their interactions are then illustrated. In the third chapter is derived the mathematical representation of the various components of the circuit and the several simplifying assumptions are made explicit. Transcription and translation are modeled as a single step and gene expression is function of the intracellular concentration of the various transcription factors that act on the different promoters of the circuit. A list of the various parameters and a justification for their value closes the chapter. In the fourth chapter are described the main characteristics of the gro simulation environment, developed by the Self Organizing Systems Laboratory of the University of Washington. Then, a sensitivity analysis performed to pinpoint the desirable characteristics of the various genetic components is detailed. The sensitivity analysis makes use of a cost function that is based on the fraction of cells in each one of the different possible states at the end of the simulation and the wanted outcome. Thanks to a particular kind of scatter plot, the parameters are ranked. Starting from an initial condition in which all the parameters assume their nominal value, the ranking suggest which parameter to tune in order to reach the goal. Obtaining a microcolony in which almost all the cells are in the follower state and only a few in the leader state seems to be the most difficult task. A small number of leader cells struggle to produce enough signal to turn the rest of the microcolony in the follower state. It is possible to obtain a microcolony in which the majority of cells are followers by increasing as much as possible the production of signal. Reaching the goal of a microcolony that is split in half between leaders and followers is comparatively easy. The best strategy seems to be increasing slightly the production of the enzyme. To end up with a majority of leaders, instead, it is advisable to increase the basal expression of the coin flipper module. At the end of the chapter, a possible future application of the leader election circuit, the spontaneous formation of spatial patterns in a microcolony, is modeled with the finite state machine formalism. The gro simulations provide insights into the genetic components that are needed to implement the behavior. In particular, since both the examples of pattern formation rely on a local version of Leader Election, a short-range communication system is essential. Moreover, new synthetic components that allow to reliably downregulate the growth rate in specific cells without side effects need to be developed. In the appendix are listed the gro code utilized to simulate the model of the circuit, a script in the Python programming language that was used to split the simulations on a Linux cluster and the Matlab code developed to analyze the data.

Macroecology of avian frugivore diversity

Die Verbreitung von Vögeln kann von sehr unterschiedlichen Faktoren (z.B. Habitatstruktur, Klima, Nahrungsverfügbarkeit, Evolutionsgeschichte) beeinflusst werden, die zudem auf verschiedenen räumlichen Skalen (lokal bis global) unterschiedlich wirken. In dieser Dissertation wurde die Artenvielfalt früchtefressender Vogelarten auf regionalem, kontinentalem und globalem Maßstab untersucht und getestet ob sie von Habitatstruktur (Landnutzung, Topographie, Vegetationsstruktur), Klima (Temperatur, Niederschlag, Evapotranspiration), Nahrungsressourcen (früchtetragende Baumarten), oder historischen Faktoren (biogeographische Region) bestimmt wird. Dazu wurden umfangreiche geographische Datenbanken auf verschiedenen räumlichen Skalen, d.h. auf regionalem (Kenia), kontinentalem (Afrika), und globalem (Welt) Maßstab, ausgewertet, die die Verbreitung aller Vogelarten und wichtiger Umweltfaktoren enthalten. Statistische Analysen auf globalem Maßstab zeigten, dass die Verbreitung von Früchtefressern sehr gut mit klimatischen Variablen, insbesondere aktueller Evapotranspiration und Produktivität, beschrieben werden kann. Unterschiede zwischen biogeographischen Regionen bleiben jedoch bestehen auch wenn für klimatische Unterschiede zwischen den Regionen korrigiert wird. Weiter zeigen unterschiedliche Ordnungen mit früchtefressenden Vogelarten unterschiedliche Diversifizierungsmuster. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass auch historische Faktoren, wie die Klima- und Evolutionsgeschichte, eine wichtige Rolle spielen. Analysen auf regionalem und kontinentalem Maßstab legen nahe, dass klimatische Faktoren im Wesentlichen indirekt auf die Artenvielfalt von Früchtefressern wirken, und zwar durch funktionelle Beziehungen zwischen Früchtefressern und Bäumen (z.B. trophische Interaktionen mit wichtigen Nahrungspflanzen, Vegetationsstruktur). Die Ergebnisse dieser Dissertation zeigen, dass biotische Interaktionen, direkte und indirekte klimatische Effekte, und das Zusammenwirken von Evolutionsgeschichte und heutigen Umweltbedingungen untersucht werden müssen um den Artenreichtum von Vögeln auf großem räumlichem Maßstab zu verstehen.

Analisi d'immagine, patologia quantitativa e dimensione frattale in patologia veterinaria: Densita' e forme

Fino dagli albori della metodica scientifica, l’osservazione e la vista hanno giocato un ruolo fondamentale. La patologia è una scienza visiva, dove le forme, i colori, le interfacce e le architetture di organi, tessuti, cellule e componenti cellulari guidano l’occhio del patologo e ne indirizzano la scelta diagnostico-classificativa. L’osservazione del preparato istologico in microscopia ottica si attua mediante l’esame e la caratterizzazione di anomalie ad ingrandimenti progressivamente crescenti, a diverse scale spaziali, che partono dalla valutazione dell’assetto architettonico sovracellulare, per poi spostarsi ad investigare e descrivere le cellule e le peculiarità citomorfologiche delle stesse. A differenza di altri esami di laboratorio che sono pienamente quantificabili, l’analisi istologica è intrinsecamente soggettiva, e quindi incline ad un alto grado di variabilità nei risultati prodotti da differenti patologi. L’analisi d’immagine, l’estrazione da un’immagine digitale di contenuti utili, rappresenta una metodica oggettiva, valida e robusta ormai largamente impiegata a completamento del lavoro del patologo. Si sottolinea come l’analisi d’immagine possa essere vista come fase descrittiva quantitativa di preparati macroscopici e microscopici che poi viene seguita da una interpretazione. Nuovamente si sottolinea come questi descrittori siano oggettivi, ripetibili e riproducibili, e non soggetti a bassa concordanza inter operatore. La presente tesi si snoda attraverso un percorso concettuale orientato ad applicazioni di analisi d’immagine e patologia quantitativa che parte dalle applicazioni più elementari (densità, misure lineari), per arrivare a nozioni più avanzate, quali lo studio di complessità delle forme mediante l’analisi frattale e la quantificazione del pattern spaziale di strutture sovracellulari.

The New Electoral Geography of Central Europe

Zarycki studied the political map of Central Europe today on the basis of results of recent parliamentary and/or presidential elections in the Czech Republic, Hungary, L8ithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Ukraine. He identified first the structure of regional political cleavages, then the spatial patterns emerging in different countries. He also considered the significance and eventual regional differentiation of various possible influences on these patterns, including urbanisation, historical heritage, ethnic factors, population movements, economic differentiation, the effects of the transformation, demographic factors, education and religion. Virtually all the countries showed a cleavage between more traditional, anti (or non-) communist regions and secular areas with higher post-communist support. Except in Ukraine and the Czech Republic, the post-communist party is dominated by the direct heirs of the former communist parties transformed into moderate left parties. The second major class of cleavages was typical of the Visegrad countries, i.e. the conflict between liberal, mostly metropolitan, regions and a different periphery, usually with a strong populist or anti-liberal appeal. This usually depends on the existence of a sizeable well-educated class, usually pro-market and pro-Western, and on the resolution of the conflict between post and anti-Communists. The third type of cleavage is based on ethnic factors and is clearest in Lithuania and Slovakia, where there are large ethnic minorities. Of factors influencing political behaviour, the two major ones identified were the historical heritage and urbanisation.

Towards greater accuracy in individual-tree mortality regression

Background mortality is an essential component of any forest growth and yield model. Forecasts of mortality contribute largely to the variability and accuracy of model predictions at the tree, stand and forest level. In the present study, I implement and evaluate state-of-the-art techniques to increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, similar to those used in many of the current variants of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, using data from North Idaho and Montana. The first technique addresses methods to correct for bias induced by measurement error typically present in competition variables. The second implements survival regression and evaluates its performance against the traditional logistic regression approach. I selected the regression calibration (RC) algorithm as a good candidate for addressing the measurement error problem. Two logistic regression models for each species were fitted, one ignoring the measurement error, which is the “naïve” approach, and the other applying RC. The models fitted with RC outperformed the naïve models in terms of discrimination when the competition variable was found to be statistically significant. The effect of RC was more obvious where measurement error variance was large and for more shade-intolerant species. The process of model fitting and variable selection revealed that past emphasis on DBH as a predictor variable for mortality, while producing models with strong metrics of fit, may make models less generalizable. The evaluation of the error variance estimator developed by Stage and Wykoff (1998), and core to the implementation of RC, in different spatial patterns and diameter distributions, revealed that the Stage and Wykoff estimate notably overestimated the true variance in all simulated stands, but those that are clustered. Results show a systematic bias even when all the assumptions made by the authors are guaranteed. I argue that this is the result of the Poisson-based estimate ignoring the overlapping area of potential plots around a tree. Effects, especially in the application phase, of the variance estimate justify suggested future efforts of improving the accuracy of the variance estimate. The second technique implemented and evaluated is a survival regression model that accounts for the time dependent nature of variables, such as diameter and competition variables, and the interval-censored nature of data collected from remeasured plots. The performance of the model is compared with the traditional logistic regression model as a tool to predict individual tree mortality. Validation of both approaches shows that the survival regression approach discriminates better between dead and alive trees for all species. In conclusion, I showed that the proposed techniques do increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, and are a promising first step towards the next generation of background mortality models. I have also identified the next steps to undertake in order to advance mortality models further.

Landscape and forest structure at moose mortality sites on Isle Royale National Park. A LiDAR based assessment

Landscape structure and heterogeneity play a potentially important, but little understood role in predator-prey interactions and behaviourally-mediated habitat selection. For example, habitat complexity may either reduce or enhance the efficiency of a predator's efforts to search, track, capture, kill and consume prey. For prey, structural heterogeneity may affect predator detection, avoidance and defense, escape tactics, and the ability to exploit refuges. This study, investigates whether and how vegetation and topographic structure influence the spatial patterns and distribution of moose (Alces alces) mortality due to predation and malnutrition at the local and landscape levels on Isle Royale National Park. 230 locations where wolves (Canis lupus) killed moose during the winters between 2002 and 2010, and 182 moose starvation death sites for the period 1996-2010, were selected from the extensive Isle Royale Wolf-Moose Project carcass database. A variety of LiDAR-derived metrics were generated and used in an algorithm model (Random Forest) to identify, characterize, and classify three-dimensional variables significant to each of the mortality classes. Furthermore, spatial models to predict and assess the likelihood at the landscape scale of moose mortality were developed. This research found that the patterns of moose mortality by predation and malnutrition across the landscape are non-random, have a high degree of spatial variability, and that both mechanisms operate in contexts of comparable physiographic and vegetation structure. Wolf winter hunting locations on Isle Royale are more likely to be a result of its prey habitat selection, although they seem to prioritize the overall areas with higher moose density in the winter. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the distribution of moose mortality by predation is habitat-specific to moose, and not to wolves. In addition, moose sex, age, and health condition also affect mortality site selection, as revealed by subtle differences between sites in vegetation heights, vegetation density, and topography. Vegetation density in particular appears to differentiate mortality locations for distinct classes of moose. The results also emphasize the significance of fine-scale landscape and habitat features when addressing predator-prey interactions. These finer scale findings would be easily missed if analyses were limited to the broader landscape scale alone.

Promoting Biodiversity in Forest Ecosystems Using Ecological Forestry

A subset of forest management techniques, termed ecological forestry, have been developed in order to produce timber and maintain the ecological integrity of forest communities through practices that more closely mirror natural disturbance regimes. Even though alternative methods have been described and tested, these approaches still need to be established and analyzed in a variety of geographic regions in order to calibrate and measure effectiveness across different forest types. The primary objective of this research project was to assess whether group selection combined with legacy-tree retention could enhance mid-tolerant tree recruitment in a late-successional northern hardwood forest. In order to evaluate a novel alternative regeneration technique, 49 group-selection openings in three size classes were created in 2003 with a biological legacy tree retained in the center of each opening. Twenty reference sites, managed using single-tree selection, were also analyzed for comparison. The specific goals of the project were to: 1) determine the fate and persistence of the openings and legacy trees 2) assess the understory response of the group-selection openings versus the single-tree selection reference sites, and 3) evaluate the spatial patterns of yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britt.) and eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.) in the group-selection openings. The results from 8-9 years post-study implementation and the changes that have occurred between 2004/5 and 2011/12 are discussed. The alternative regeneration technique developed and assessed in this study has the potential to enrich biodiversity in a range of forest types. Projected group-selection opening persistence rates ranged from 41-91 years. Openings from 500-1500 m2 are predicted to persist long enough for mid-tolerant tree recruitment. The legacy trees responded well to release and experienced a low mortality rate. Yellow birch (the primary shade mid-tolerant tree in the study area) densities increased with opening size. Maples surpassed all other species in abundance. In the sapling layer, sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) was 2 to over 300 times more abundant in the group-selection openings and 2 to 3 times more abundant in the references sites than all other species present. Red maple (Acer rubrum L.) was the second most abundant species present in the openings and reference sites. Spatial patterns of yellow birch and eastern hemlock in the openings were mostly aggregated. The southern edges of the largest openings contained the highest magnitude of yellow birch and eastern hemlock per unit area. Continued monitoring and additional treatments will likely be necessary in order to ensure underrepresented species successfully reach maturity.

Establishment and expansion of Lake Malawi rock fish populations after a dramatic Late Pleistocene lake level rise

Major environmental events that fragment populations among multiple island habitats have potential to drive large-scale episodes of speciation and adaptive radiation. A recent palaeolimnological study of sediment cores indicated that Lake Malawi underwent major climate-driven desiccation events 75 000-135 000 years ago that lowered the water level to at least 580 m below the present state and severely reduced surface area. After this period, lake levels rose and stabilized, creating multiple discontinuous littoral rocky habitats. Here, we present evidence supporting the hypothesis that establishment and expansion of isolated philopatric rock cichlid populations occurred after this rise and stabilization of lake level. We studied the Pseudotropheus (Maylandia) species complex, a group with both allopatric and sympatric populations that differ in male nuptial colour traits and tend to mate assortatively. Using coalescent analyses based on mitochondrial DNA, we found evidence that populations throughout the lake started to expand and accumulate genetic diversity after the lake level rise. Moreover, most haplotypes were geographically restricted, and the greatest genetic similarities were typically among sympatric or neighbouring populations. This is indicative of limited dispersal and establishment of assortative mating among populations following the lake level rise. Together, this evidence is compatible with a single large-scale environmental event being central to evolution of spatial patterns of genetic and species diversity in P. (Maylandia) and perhaps other Lake Malawi rock cichlids. Equivalent climate-driven pulses of habitat formation and fragmentation may similarly have contributed to observed rapid and punctuated cladogenesis in other adaptive radiations.

Event-related electric microstates of the brain differ between words with visual and abstract meaning

The present study shows that different neural activity during mental imagery and abstract mentation can be assigned to well-defined steps of the brain's information-processing. During randomized visual presentation of single, imagery-type and abstract-type words, 27 channel event-related potential (ERP) field maps were obtained from 25 subjects (sequence-divided into a first and second group for statistics). The brain field map series showed a sequence of typical map configurations that were quasi-stable for brief time periods (microstates). The microstates were concatenated by rapid map changes. As different map configurations must result from different spatial patterns of neural activity, each microstate represents different active neural networks. Accordingly, microstates are assumed to correspond to discrete steps of information-processing. Comparing microstate topographies (using centroids) between imagery- and abstract-type words, significantly different microstates were found in both subject groups at 286–354 ms where imagery-type words were more right-lateralized than abstract-type words, and at 550–606 ms and 606–666 ms where anterior-posterior differences occurred. We conclude that language-processing consists of several, well-defined steps and that the brain-states incorporating those steps are altered by the stimuli's capacities to generate mental imagery or abstract mentation in a state-dependent manner.

Changing correlation structures of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation from 1000 to 2100 AD

Atmospheric circulation modes are important concepts in understanding the variability of atmospheric dynamics. Assuming their spatial patterns to be fixed, such modes are often described by simple indices from rather short observational data sets. The increasing length of reanalysis products allows these concepts and assumptions to be scrutinised. Here we investigate the stability of spatial patterns of Northern Hemisphere teleconnections by using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis as well as several control and transient millennium-scale simulations with coupled models. The observed and simulated centre of action of the two major teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and to some extent the Pacific North American (PNA), are not stable in time. The currently observed dipole pattern of the NAO, its centre of action over Iceland and the Azores, split into a north–south dipole pattern in the western Atlantic with a wave train pattern in the eastern part, connecting the British Isles with West Greenland and the eastern Mediterranean during the period 1940–1969 AD. The PNA centres of action over Canada are shifted southwards and over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1915–1944 AD. The analysis further shows that shifts in the centres of action of either teleconnection pattern are not related to changes in the external forcing applied in transient simulations of the last millennium. Such shifts in their centres of action are accompanied by changes in the relation of local precipitation and temperature with the overlying atmospheric mode. These findings further undermine the assumption of stationarity between local climate/proxy variability and large-scale dynamics inherent when using proxy-based reconstructions of atmospheric modes, and call for a more robust understanding of atmospheric variability on decadal timescales.

Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO2 and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.