The daily and hourly energy consumption and load forecasting using artifitial neural network method: a case study using a set of 93 households in Portugal

It is important to understand and forecast a typical or a particularly household daily consumption in order to design and size suitable renewable energy systems and energy storage. In this research for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) it has been used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and, despite the consumption unpredictability, it has been shown the possibility to forecast the electricity consumption of a household with certainty. The ANNs are recognized to be a potential methodology for modeling hourly and daily energy consumption and load forecasting. Input variables such as apartment area, numbers of occupants, electrical appliance consumption and Boolean inputs as hourly meter system were considered. Furthermore, the investigation carried out aims to define an ANN architecture and a training algorithm in order to achieve a robust model to be used in forecasting energy consumption in a typical household. It was observed that a feed-forward ANN and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm provided a good performance. For this research it was used a database with consumption records, logged in 93 real households, in Lisbon, Portugal, between February 2000 and July 2001, including both weekdays and weekend. The results show that the ANN approach provides a reliable model for forecasting household electric energy consumption and load profile. © 2014 The Author.

The solvation and electrochemical behaviour of Copper acetylacetonate complexes in ionic liquids

The behavior of copper(II) complexes of pentane-2,4-dione and 1,1,1,5,5,5-hexafluoro-2,4-pentanedione, [Cu(acac)(2) (1) and [Cu(HFacac)(2)(H2O)] (2), in ionic liquids and molecular organic solvents, was studied by spectroscopic and electrochemical techniques. The electron paramagnetic resonance characterization (EPR) showed well-resolved spectra in most solvents. In general the EPR spectra of [Cu(acac)(2)] show higher g(z) values and lower hyperfine coupling constants, A(z), in ionic liquids than in organic solvents, in agreement with longer Cu-O bond lengths and higher electron charge in the copper ion in the ionic liquids, suggesting coordination of the ionic liquid anions. For [Cu(HFacac)(2)(H2O)] the opposite was observed suggesting that in ionic liquids there is no coordination of the anions and that the complex is tetrahedrically distorted. The redox properties of the Cu(II) complexes were investigated by cyclic voltammetry (CV) at a Pt electrode (d = 1 mm), in bmimBF(4) and bmimNTf(2) ionic liquids and, for comparative purposes, in neat organic solvents. The neutral copper(II) complexes undergo irreversible reductions to Cu(I) and Cu(0) species in both ILs and common organic solvents (CH2Cl2 or acetonitrile), but, in ILs, they are usually more easier to reduce (less cathodic reduction potential) than in the organic solvents. Moreover, 1 and 2 are easier to reduce in bmimNTf(2) than in bmimBF(4) ionic liquid. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The solvation and redox behaviour of mixed ligand COPPER(II) complexes of acetylacetonate and aromatic dimines in ionic liquids

The behavior of two cationic copper complexes of acetylacetonate and 2,2'-bipyridine or 1,10-phenanthroline, [Cu(acac)(bipy)]Cl (1) and [Cu(acac)(phen)]Cl (2), in organic solvents and ionic liquids, was studied by spectroscopic and electrochemical techniques. Both complexes showed solvatochromism in ionic liquids although no correlation with solvent parameters could be obtained. By EPR spectroscopy rhombic spectra with well-resolved superhyperfine structure were obtained in most ionic liquids. The spin Hamiltonian parameters suggest a square pyramidal geometry with coordination of the ionic liquid anion. The redox properties of the complexes were investigated by cyclic voltammetry at a Pt electrode (d = 1 mm) in bmimBF(4) and bmimNTf(2) ionic liquids. Both complexes 1 and 2 are electrochemically reduced in these ionic media at more negative potentials than when using organic solvents. This is in agreement with the EPR characterization, which shows lower A(z) and higher g(z) values for the complexes dissolved in ionic liquids, than in organic solvents, due to higher electron density at the copper center. The anion basicity order obtained by EPR is NTf2-, N(CN)(2)(-), MeSO4- and Me2PO4-, which agrees with previous determinations. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

UV-Vis spectroscopic study preferential solvation and intermolecular interactions in methanol/1-propanol/acetonitrile by means of solvatochromic probes

Solvatochromic UV-Vis shifts of four indicators (4-nitroaniline, 4-nitroanisole, 4-nitrophenol and N,N-dimethy-1-4-nitro aniline) have been measured at 298.15 K in the ternary mixture methano1/1-propanol/acetonitrile (MeOH/1-PrOH/MeCN) in a total of 22 mole fractions, along with 18 additional mole fractions for each of the corresponding binary mixtures, MeOH/1-PrOH, 1-PrOH/MeCN and MeOH/MeCN. These values, combined with our previous experimental results for 2,6-dipheny1-4-(2,4,6-triphenylpyridinium-1-yl)phenolate (Reichardt's betaine dye) in the same mixtures, permitted the computation of the Kamlet-Taft solvent parameters, alpha, beta, and pi*. The rationalization of the spectroscopic behavior of each probe within each mixture's whole mole fraction range was achieved through the use of the Bosch and Roses preferential solvation model. The applied model allowed the identification of synergistic behaviors in MeCN/alcohol mixtures and thus to infer the existence of solvent complexes in solution. Also, the addition of small amounts of MeCN to the binary mixtures was seen to cause a significant variation in pi*, whereas the addition of alcohol to MeCN mixtures always lead to a sudden change in a and The behavior of these parameters in the ternary mixture was shown to be mainly determined by the contributions of the underlying binary mixtures. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Credit risk measures: a case of renewable energy companies

The Basel III will have a significant impact on the European banking sector. In September 2010, supervisors of various countries adopted the new rules proposed by the prudential Committee on Banking Supervision to be applied to the business of credit institutions (hereinafter called ICs) in a phased manner from 2013, assuming to its full implementation by 2019. The purpose of this new regulation is to limit the excessive risk that these institutions took on the period preceding the global financial crisis of 2008. This new regulation is known in slang by Basel III. Depending on the requirement of Basel II for banks and their supervisors to assess the soundness and adequacy of internal risk measurement and credit management systems, the development of methodologies for the validation of internal and external evaluation systems is clearly an important issue . More specifically, there is a need to develop tools to validate the systems used to generate the parameters (such as PD, LGD, EAD and ratings of perceived risk) that serve as starting points for the IRB approach for credit risk. In this context, the work is composed of a number of approaches and tools used to evaluate the robustness of these elements IRB systems.

Modified particle swarm optimization for day-ahead distributed energy resources scheduling including vehicle-to-grid

Mestrado em Engenharia Electrotécnica – Sistemas Eléctricos de Energia

Industry energy optimization: A case study in a biodiesel production site

This paper presents a case study of heat exchanger network (HEN) retrofit with the objective to reduce the utilities consumption in a biodiesel production process. Pinch analysis studies allow determining the minimum duty utilities as well the maximum of heat recovery. The existence of heat exchangers for heat recovery already running in the process causes a serious restriction for the implementation of grassroot HEN design based on pinch studies. Maintaining the existing HEN, a set of alternatives with additional heat exchangers was created and analysed using some industrial advice and selection criteria. The final proposed solution allows to increase the actual 18 % of recovery heat of the all heating needs of the process to 23 %, with an estimated annual saving in hot utility of 35 k(sic)/y.

Assessment and optimization of wind energy integration into the power systems: application to the portuguese system

The increasing integration of wind energy in power systems can be responsible for the occurrence of over-generation, especially during the off-peak periods. This paper presents a dedicated methodology to identify and quantify the occurrence of this over-generation and to evaluate some of the solutions that can be adopted to mitigate this problem. The methodology is applied to the Portuguese power system, in which the wind energy is expected to represent more than 25% of the installed capacity in a near future. The results show that the pumped-hydro units will not provide enough energy storage capacity and, therefore, wind curtailments are expected to occur in the Portuguese system. Additional energy storage devices can be implemented to offset the wind energy curtailments. However, the investment analysis performed show that they are not economically viable, due to the present high capital costs involved.

Electric vehicles as a mean to reduce, energy, emissions and electricity costs

Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which obtain their fuel from the grid by charging a battery, are set to be introduced into the mass market and expected to contribute to oil consumption reduction. This research is concerned with studying the potential impacts on the electric utilities of large-scale adoption of plug-in electric vehicles from the perspective of electricity demand, fossil fuels use, CO2 emissions and energy costs. Simulations were applied to the Portuguese case study in order to analyze what would be the optimal recharge profile and EV penetration in an energy-oriented, an emissions-oriented and a cost-oriented objective. The objectives considered were: The leveling of load profiles, minimization of daily emissions and minimization of daily wholesale costs. Almost all solutions point to an off-peak recharge and a 50% reduction in daily wholesale costs can be verified from a peak recharge scenario to an off-peak recharge for a 2 million EVs in 2020. A 15% improvement in the daily total wholesale costs can be verified in the costs minimization objective when compared with the off-peak scenario result.

The electric vehicles as a mean to reduce Co2 emissions and energy costs in isolated regions: the São Miguel (Azores) case study

Most of small islands around the world today, are dependent on imported fossil fuels for the majority of their energy needs especially for transport activities and electricity production. The use of locally renewable energy resources and the implementation of energy efficiency measures could make a significant contribution to their economic development by reducing fossil fuel imports. An electrification of vehicles has been suggested as a way to both reduce pollutant emissions and increase security of supply of the transportation sector by reducing the dependence on oil products imports and facilitate the accommodation of renewable electricity generation, such as wind and, in the case of volcanic islands like Sao Miguel (Azores) of the geothermal energy whose penetration has been limited by the valley electricity consumption level. In this research, three scenarios of EV penetration were studied and it was verified that, for a 15% LD fleet replacement by EVs with 90% of all energy needs occurring during the night, the accommodation of 10 MW of new geothermal capacity becomes viable. Under this scenario, reductions of 8% in electricity costs, 14% in energy, 23% in fossil fuels use and CO2 emissions for the transportation and electricity production sectors could be expected.

Energy efficiency of quadruped gaits

This paper studies periodic gaits of quadruped locomotion systems. The purpose is to determine the best set of gait and locomotion variables during walking, for different robot velocities, based on two formulated performance measures. A set of experiments reveals the influence of the gait and locomotion variables upon the proposed indices, namely that the gait and the locomotion parameters should be adapted to the robot forward velocity.

Optimising the energy consumption on pultrusion process

This study is based on a previous experimental work in which embedded cylindrical heaters were applied to a pultrusion machine die, and resultant energetic performance compared with that achieved with the former heating system based on planar resistances. The previous work allowed to conclude that the use of embedded resistances enhances significantly the energetic performance of pultrusion process, leading to 57% decrease of energy consumption. However, the aforementioned study was developed with basis on an existing pultrusion die, which only allowed a single relative position for the heaters. In the present work, new relative positions for the heaters were investigated in order to optimise heat distribution process and energy consumption. Finite Elements Analysis was applied as an efficient tool to identify the best relative position of the heaters into the die, taking into account the usual parameters involved in the process and the control system already tested in the previous study. The analysis was firstly developed based on eight cylindrical heaters located in four different location plans. In a second phase, in order to refine the results, a new approach was adopted using sixteen heaters with the same total power. Final results allow to conclude that the correct positioning of the heaters can contribute to about 10% of energy consumption reduction, decreasing the production costs and leading to a better eco-efficiency of pultrusion process.

Estimating Effective Slowdown of Tasks in Energy-Aware Clouds

Consolidation consists in scheduling multiple virtual machines onto fewer servers in order to improve resource utilization and to reduce operational costs due to power consumption. However, virtualization technologies do not offer performance isolation, causing applications’ slowdown. In this work, we propose a performance enforcing mechanism, composed of a slowdown estimator, and a interference- and power-aware scheduling algorithm. The slowdown estimator determines, based on noisy slowdown data samples obtained from state-of-the-art slowdown meters, if tasks will complete within their deadlines, invoking the scheduling algorithm if needed. When invoked, the scheduling algorithm builds performance and power aware virtual clusters to successfully execute the tasks. We conduct simulations injecting synthetic jobs which characteristics follow the last version of the Google Cloud tracelogs. The results indicate that our strategy can be efficiently integrated with state-of-the-art slowdown meters to fulfil contracted SLAs in real-world environments, while reducing operational costs in about 12%.

Towards high-available and energy-efficient virtual computing environments in the cloud

Empowered by virtualisation technology, cloud infrastructures enable the construction of flexi- ble and elastic computing environments, providing an opportunity for energy and resource cost optimisation while enhancing system availability and achieving high performance. A crucial re- quirement for effective consolidation is the ability to efficiently utilise system resources for high- availability computing and energy-efficiency optimisation to reduce operational costs and carbon footprints in the environment. Additionally, failures in highly networked computing systems can negatively impact system performance substantially, prohibiting the system from achieving its initial objectives. In this paper, we propose algorithms to dynamically construct and readjust vir- tual clusters to enable the execution of users’ jobs. Allied with an energy optimising mechanism to detect and mitigate energy inefficiencies, our decision-making algorithms leverage virtuali- sation tools to provide proactive fault-tolerance and energy-efficiency to virtual clusters. We conducted simulations by injecting random synthetic jobs and jobs using the latest version of the Google cloud tracelogs. The results indicate that our strategy improves the work per Joule ratio by approximately 12.9% and the working efficiency by almost 15.9% compared with other state-of-the-art algorithms.

Saving energy in the GFRP pultrusion process

This study addresses to the optimization of pultrusion manufacturing process from the energy-consumption point of view. The die heating system of external platen heaters commonly used in the pultrusion machines is one of the components that contribute the most to the high consumption of energy of pultrusion process. Hence, instead of the conventional multi-planar heaters, a new internal die heating system that leads to minor heat losses is proposed. The effect of the number and relative position of the embedded heaters along the die is also analysed towards the setting up of the optimum arrangement that minimizes both the energy rate and consumption. Simulation and optimization processes were greatly supported by Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and calibrated with basis on the temperature profile computed through thermography imaging techniques. The main outputs of this study allow to conclude that the use of embedded cylindrical resistances instead of external planar heaters leads to drastic reductions of both the power consumption and the warm-up periods of the die heating system. For the analysed die tool and process, savings on energy consumption up to 60% and warm-up period stages less than an half hour were attained with the new internal heating system. The improvements achieved allow reducing the power requirements on pultrusion process, and thus minimize industrial costs and contribute to a more sustainable pultrusion manufacturing industry.