934 resultados para small area estimation
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BACKGROUND. The Beijing lineage of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is causing concern due to its global distribution and its involvement in severe outbreaks. Studies focused on this lineage are mainly restricted to geographical settings where its prevalence is high, whereas those in other areas are scarce. In this study, we analyze Beijing isolates in the Mediterranean area, where this lineage is not prevalent and is mainly associated with immigrant cases. RESULTS. Only 1% (N = 26) of the isolates from two population-based studies in Spain corresponded to Beijing strains, most of which were pan-susceptible and from Peruvian and Ecuadorian patients. Restriction fragment length polymorphism typing with the insertion sequence IS6110 identified three small clusters (2-3 cases). Mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable number tandem repeat typing (MIRU-15) offered low discriminatory power, requiring the introduction of five additional loci. A selection of the Beijing isolates identified in the Spanish sample, together with a sample of Beijing strains from Italy, to broaden the analysis context in the Mediterranean area, were assayed in an infection model with THP-1 cells. A wide range of intracellular growth rates was observed with only two isolates showing an increased intracellular replication, in both cases associated with contained production of TNF-alpha. No correlation was observed between virulence and the Beijing phylogenetic group, clustered/orphan status, or resistance. The Beijing strain responsible for extensive spread on Gran Canaria Island was also identified in Madrid, but did not lead to secondary cases and did not show high infectivity in the infection model. CONCLUSIONS. The Beijing lineage in our area is a non-homogeneous family, with only certain highly virulent representatives. The specific characterization of Beijing isolates in different settings could help us to accurately identify the virulent representatives before making general assumptions about this lineage.
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Various host-related factors have been reported as relevant risk factors for leprosy reactions. To support a new hypothesis that an antigenic load in local tissues that is sufficient to trigger the immune response may come from an external supply of Mycobacterium leprae organisms, the prevalence of reactional leprosy was assessed against the number of household contacts. The number of contacts was ascertained at diagnosis in leprosy patients coming from an endemic area of Brazil. The prevalence of reactions (patients with reactions/total patients) was fitted by binomial regression and the risk difference (RD) was estimated with a semi-robust estimation of variance as a measure of effect. Five regression models were fitted. Model 1 included only the main exposure variable "number of household contacts"; model 2 included all four explanatory variables ("contacts", "fertile age", "number of skin lesions" and "bacillary index") that were found to be associated with the outcome upon univariate analysis; models 3-5 contained various combinations of three predictors. Male and female patients were analyzed separately. In females, household contacts were a significant predictor for leprosy reactions in model 1 [crude RD = 0.06; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.01; 0.12] and model 5 (RD = 0.05; CI = 0.02; 0.09), which included contacts, bacillary index and skin lesions as predictors. Other models were unsatisfactory because the joint presence of fertile age and bacillary index was a likely source of multicollinearity. No significant results were obtained for males. The likely interpretation of our findings might suggest that in female patients, leprosy reactions may be triggered by an external spreading of M. leprae by healthy carrier family members. The small number of observations is an obvious limitation of our study which requires larger confirmatory studies.
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Decreasing perinatal morbidity and mortality is one of the main goals of obstetrics. Prognosis of preterm births depends on gestational age and birthweight. Multidisciplinary management is discussed with the parents according to these two parameters. In other circumstances, a suspected macrosomy will influence the management of the last weeks of pregnancy. Induction of labor or Cesarean delivery will be considered to avoid shoulder dystocia, brachial plexus injury or perinatal asphyxia. Birthweight needs to be estimated with accuracy, and this article describes the efficiency of various ultrasound weight estimation formulae for small and large fetuses.
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The high proportion of cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis reported amongst residents in the city of Bandeirantes, in the state of Paraná, Brazil, led the authors to investigate the phlebotomine fauna in both urban and rural environments. The sandflies were captured with automatic light traps from 07:00 pm-07:00 am fortnightly in 11 urban peridomiciles from April 2008-March 2009 and monthly in three ecotopes within four rural localities from April 2009-March 2010. In one of these latter localities, sandfly capture was conducted with white/black Shannon traps during each of three seasons: spring, summer and fall. A total of 5,729 sandflies of 17 species were captured. Nyssomyia neivai (46.7%) and Nyssomyia whitmani (35.3%) were the predominant species. In this study, 3,865 specimens were captured with automatic light traps: 22 (0.083 sandflies/trap) in the urban areas and 3,843 (26.69 sandflies/trap) in the rural areas. Ny. neivai was predominant in urban (68.2%) and rural (42.8%) areas. A total of 1,864 specimens were captured with the white/black Shannon traps and Ny. neivai (54.5%) and Ny. whitmani (31.4%) were the predominant species captured. The small numbers of sandflies captured in the urban areas suggest that the transmission of Leishmania has occurred in the rural area due to Ny. neivai and Ny. whitmani as the probable vectors.
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Habitat loss and fragmentation due to land use changes are major threats to biodiversity in forest ecosystems, and they are expected to have important impacts on many taxa and at various spatial scales. Species richness and area relationships (SARs) have been used to assess species diversity patterns and drivers, and thereby in the establishment of conservation and management strategies. Here we propose a hierarchical approach to achieve deeper insights on SARs in small forest islets in intensive farmland and to address the impacts of decreasing naturalness on such relationships. In the intensive dairy landscapes of Northwest Portugal, where small forest stands (dominated by pines, eucalypts or both) represent semi-natural habitat islands, 50 small forest stands were selected and surveyed for vascular plant diversity. A hierarchical analytical framework was devised to determine species richness and inter- and intra-patch SARs for the whole set of forest patches (general patterns) and for each type of forest (specific patterns). Differences in SARs for distinct groups were also tested by considering subsets of species (native, alien, woody, and herbaceous). Overall, values for species richness were confirmed to be different between forest patches exhibiting different levels of naturalness. Whereas higher values of plant diversity were found in pine stands, higher values for alien species were observed in eucalypt stands. Total area of forest (inter-patch SAR) was found not to have a significant impact on species richness for any of the targeted groups of species. However, significant intra-patch SARs were obtained for all groups of species and forest types. A hierarchical approach was successfully applied to scrutinise SARs along a gradient of forest naturalness in intensively managed landscapes. Dominant canopy tree and management intensity were found to reflect differently on distinct species groups as well as to compensate for increasing stand area, buffering SARs among patches, but not within patches. Thus, the maintenance of small semi-natural patches dominated by pines, under extensive practices of forest management, will promote native plant diversity while at the same time contributing to limit the expansion of problematic alien invasive species.
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BACKGROUND The demographic structure has a significant influence on the use of healthcare services, as does the size of the population denominators. Very few studies have been published on methods for estimating the real population such as tourist resorts. The lack of information about these problems means there is a corresponding lack of information about the behaviour of populational denominators (the floating population or tourist load) and the effect of this on the use of healthcare services. The objectives of the study were: a) To determine the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) ratio, per person per day, among populations of known size; b) to estimate, by means of this ratio, the real population in an area where tourist numbers are very significant; and c) to determine the impact on the utilisation of hospital emergency healthcare services of the registered population, in comparison to the non-resident population, in two areas where tourist numbers are very significant. METHODS An ecological study design was employed. We analysed the Healthcare Districts of the Costa del Sol and the island of Menorca. Both are Spanish territories in the Mediterranean region. RESULTS In the two areas analysed, the correlation coefficient between the MSW ratio and admissions to hospital emergency departments exceeded 0.9, with p < 0.001. On the basis of MSW generation ratios, obtained for a control zone and also measured in neighbouring countries, we estimated the real population. For the summer months, when tourist activity is greatest and demand for emergency healthcare at hospitals is highest, this value was found to be double that of the registered population. CONCLUSION The MSW indicator, which is both ecological and indirect, can be used to estimate the real population in areas where population levels vary significantly during the year. This parameter is of interest in planning and dimensioning the provision of healthcare services.
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The MDRD (Modification of diet in renal disease) equation enables glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimation from serum creatinine only. Thus, the laboratory can report an estimated GFR (eGFR) with each serum creatinine assessment, increasing therefore the recognition of renal failure. Predictive performance of MDRD equation is better for GFR < 60 ml/min/1,73 m2. A normal or near-normal renal function is often underestimated by this equation. Overall, MDRD provides more reliable estimations of renal function than the Cockcroft-Gault (C-G) formula, but both lack precision. MDRD is not superior to C-G for drug dosing. Being adjusted to 1,73 m2, MDRD eGFR has to be back adjusted to the patient's body surface area for drug dosing. Besides, C-G has the advantage of a greater simplicity and a longer use.
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The Guelb Moghrein Fe oxide-Cu-Au-Co deposit is located at the western boundary of the West African craton in NW Mauritania. The wall rocks to the mineralization represent a meta-volcanosedimentary succession typical of Archaean greenstone belts. Two types of meta-volcanic rocks are distinguished: (1) volcanoclastic rocks of rhyodacite-dacite composition (Sainte Barbe volcanic unit), which form the stratigraphic base; (2) tholeiitic andesites-basalts (Akjoujt meta-basalt unit). The trace element signature of both types is characteristic of a volcanic arc setting. A small meta-pelitic division belongs to the Sainte Barbe volcanic unit. A meta-carbonate body, which contains the mineralization, forms a tectonic lens in the Akjoujt meta-basalt unit. It can be defined by the high X(mg) (=36) of Fe-Mg carbonate, the REE pattern and the delta(13)C values of -18 to -17 parts per thousand as a marine precipitate similar to Archaean banded iron formation (BIF). Additionally, small slices of Fe-Mg clinoamphibole-chlorite schist in the meta-carbonate show characteristics of marine shale. This assemblage, therefore, does not represent an alteration product, but represents an iron formation unit deposited on a continental shelf, which probably belongs to the Lembeitih Formation. The hydrothermal mineralization at 2492 Ma was contemporaneous with regional D(2) thrusting of the Sainte Barbe volcanic unit and imbrications of the meta-carbonate in the upper greenschist facies. This resulted in the formation of an ore breccia in the meta-carbonate, which is enriched in Fe, Ni, Co, Cu, Bi, Mo, As and Au. Massive sulphide ore breccia contains up to 20 wt% Cu. The ore fluid was aqueous-carbonic in nature and either changed its composition from a Mg-rich oxidizing to an Fe-rich reducing fluid or the two fluid types mixed at the trap site. All lithologies at Guelb Moghrein were deformed by D(3) thrusting to the east in the lower greenschist facies. The mobility of REE in the retrogressed rocks explains the formation of a second generation of hydrothermal monazite, which was dated at c. 1742 Ma. Archaean rocks of the West African craton extend to the west to Guelb Moghrein. The active continental margin was deformed and mineralized in the Late Archaean-Early Proterozoic and again reactivated in the Mid-Proterozoic and Westphalian, showing that the western boundary of the craton was reactivated several times.
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We present an integrated work based on calcareous nannofossil and benthic foraminiferal assemblages, and geochemical analyses of two Upper Pliensbachian-Lower Toarcian sections located in the central-South France. The studied sections, Tournadous and Saint-Paul-des-Fonts, represent the proximal and the distal part, respectively, of the Jurassic Causses Basin, one of the small, partly enclosed basins belonging to the epicontinental shelf of the NW Tethys. At the transition from Late Pliensbachian to Early Toarcian, the Causses Basin recorded an emersion in response to the global sea-level fall. Our data indicate severe environmental conditions of marine waters, including salinity decrease and anoxia development, occurring in the Early Toarcian. The acme of this deterioration coincides with the Early Toarcian Anoxic Event (T-OAE) but, due to the restricted nature of the basin. anoxia persisted until the end of the Early Toarcian. mainly in the deeper parts of the basin. The micronutrients and organic organic-matter fluxes were probably high during the entire studied time interval, as shown by nannofossil and foraminiferal assemblages. However, nannoplankton production drastically decreased during the T-OAE, as demonstrated by very low nannofossil fluxes, and only taxa tolerant to low-saline surface waters could thrive. At the same time, benthic foraminifers temporarily disappeared in response to sea-bottom anoxia. Our study demonstrates that environmental changes related to the T-OAE are well-recorded even in small, partly enclosed basins of NW Europe, like the Causses Basin. Within this area, the effects of global changes. like sea sea-level and temperature fluctuations, are modulated by local conditions mainly controlled by the morphology of the basin. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Rho GTPases are conformational switches that control a wide variety of signaling pathways critical for eukaryotic cell development and proliferation. They represent attractive targets for drug design as their aberrant function and deregulated activity is associated with many human diseases including cancer. Extensive high-resolution structures (.100) and recent mutagenesis studies have laid the foundation for the design of new structure-based chemotherapeutic strategies. Although the inhibition of Rho signaling with drug-like compounds is an active area of current research, very little attention has been devoted to directly inhibiting Rho by targeting potential allosteric non-nucleotide binding sites. By avoiding the nucleotide binding site, compounds may minimize the potential for undesirable off-target interactions with other ubiquitous GTP and ATP binding proteins. Here we describe the application of molecular dynamics simulations, principal component analysis, sequence conservation analysis, and ensemble small-molecule fragment mapping to provide an extensive mapping of potential small-molecule binding pockets on Rho family members. Characterized sites include novel pockets in the vicinity of the conformationaly responsive switch regions as well as distal sites that appear to be related to the conformations of the nucleotide binding region. Furthermore the use of accelerated molecular dynamics simulation, an advanced sampling method that extends the accessible time-scale of conventional simulations, is found to enhance the characterization of novel binding sites when conformational changes are important for the protein mechanism.
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Coffee and cocoa represent the main sources of income for small farmers in the Northern Amazon Region of Ecuador. The provinces of Orellana and Sucumbios, as border areas, have benefited from investments made by many public and private institutions. Many of the projects carried out in the area have been aimed at energising the production of coffee and cocoa, strengthening the producers’ associations and providing commercialisation infrastructure. Improving the quality of life of this population threatened by poverty and high migration flows mainly from Colombia is a significant challenge. This paper presents research highlighting the importance of associative commercialisation to raising income from coffee and cocoa. The research draws on primary information obtained during field work, and from official information from the Ministry of Agriculture. The study presents an overview of current organisational structures, initiatives of associative commercialisation, stockpiling of infrastructure and ownership regimes, as well as estimates for both ‘robusta’ coffee and national cocoa production and income. The analysis of the main constraints presents different alternatives for the implementation of public land policies. These policies are aimed at mitigating the problems associated with the organisational structure of the producers, with processes of commercialisation and with environmental aspects, among others.
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Biochemical systems are commonly modelled by systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). A particular class of such models called S-systems have recently gained popularity in biochemical system modelling. The parameters of an S-system are usually estimated from time-course profiles. However, finding these estimates is a difficult computational problem. Moreover, although several methods have been recently proposed to solve this problem for ideal profiles, relatively little progress has been reported for noisy profiles. We describe a special feature of a Newton-flow optimisation problem associated with S-system parameter estimation. This enables us to significantly reduce the search space, and also lends itself to parameter estimation for noisy data. We illustrate the applicability of our method by applying it to noisy time-course data synthetically produced from previously published 4- and 30-dimensional S-systems. In addition, we propose an extension of our method that allows the detection of network topologies for small S-systems. We introduce a new method for estimating S-system parameters from time-course profiles. We show that the performance of this method compares favorably with competing methods for ideal profiles, and that it also allows the determination of parameters for noisy profiles.
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On-street parking has been considered problematic by engineers for many years. In fact, numerous studies have concluded that diagonal or angle parking in particular is potentially more of a safety concern than parallel or no parking at all. It is a common position of many states, including Iowa, to discourage or completely prohibit angle parking on primary road extensions in urban areas. However, with the acceptance of “context sensitive design” and traffic calming techniques, policies for on-street parking are receiving re -consideration in many agencies including the FHWA. This study was undertaken to analyze operational and safety histories in the state of Iowa where various types of on-street parking have existed for many years, concentrating in particular on smaller communities. Specifically of interest was a comparison of diagonal parking locations to other types with regard to related crash histories. If possible, it was intended to develop guidelines to assist Iowa Department of Transportation designers in the consideration of parking requirements for road improvements through small communities. In this regard, several criteria were analyzed to determine possible contribution to crash history including road width, clearance to parked vehicles, traffic volumes, community population, and length of parking area. None of these factors, with the possible exception of population, displayed a clearly definable relationship to crash history. However, when average crash rates for various parking types were compared for non-intersection crashes, differences in rates between areas with diagonal parking and those with parallel parking were almost negligible. In fact, those observed rates were less than sample locations with no parking at all. These results seem to indicate that indeed there may exist no compelling justification for blanket prohibition of angle parking along Iowa’s primary extensions in all urban areas. Rather, a case-by-case investigation with each project design of the most applicable parking type would seem appropriate in smaller communities.
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High Resolution Magic Angle Spinning (HR-MAS) NMR allows metabolic characterization of biopsies. HR-MAS spectra from tissues of most organs show strong lipid contributions that are overlapping metabolite regions, which hamper metabolite estimation. Metabolite quantification and analysis would benefit from a separation of lipids and small metabolites. Generally, a relaxation filter is used to reduce lipid contributions. However, the strong relaxation filter required to eliminate most of the lipids also reduces the signals for small metabolites. The aim of our study was therefore to investigate different diffusion editing techniques in order to employ diffusion differences for separating lipid and small metabolite contributions in the spectra from different organs for unbiased metabonomic analysis. Thus, 1D and 2D diffusion measurements were performed, and pure lipid spectra that were obtained at strong diffusion weighting (DW) were subtracted from those obtained at low DW, which include both small metabolites and lipids. This subtraction yielded almost lipid free small metabolite spectra from muscle tissue. Further improved separation was obtained by combining a 1D diffusion sequence with a T2-filter, with the subtraction method eliminating residual lipids from the spectra. Similar results obtained for biopsies of different organs suggest that this method is applicable in various tissue types. The elimination of lipids from HR-MAS spectra and the resulting less biased assessment of small metabolites have potential to remove ambiguities in the interpretation of metabonomic results. This is demonstrated in a reproducibility study on biopsies from human muscle.
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Rockfall propagation areas can be determined using a simple geometric rule known as shadow angle or energy line method based on a simple Coulomb frictional model implemented in the CONEFALL computer program. Runout zones are estimated from a digital terrain model (DTM) and a grid file containing the cells representing rockfall potential source areas. The cells of the DTM that are lowest in altitude and located within a cone centered on a rockfall source cell belong to the potential propagation area associated with that grid cell. In addition, the CONEFALL method allows estimation of mean and maximum velocities and energies of blocks in the rockfall propagation areas. Previous studies indicate that the slope angle cone ranges from 27° to 37° depending on the assumptions made, i.e. slope morphology, probability of reaching a point, maximum run-out, field observations. Different solutions based on previous work and an example of an actual rockfall event are presented here.