Predicting polarization signatures for double-detonation and delayed-detonation models of Type Ia supernovae

Calculations of synthetic spectropolarimetry are one means to test multidimensional explosion models for Type Ia supernovae. In a recent paper, we demonstrated that the violent merger of a 1.1 and 0.9 M⊙ white dwarf binary system is too asymmetric to explain the low polarization levels commonly observed in normal Type Ia supernovae. Here, we present polarization simulations for two alternative scenarios: the sub-Chandrasekhar mass double-detonation and the Chandrasekhar mass delayed-detonation model. Specifically, we study a 2D double-detonation model and a 3D delayed-detonation model, and calculate polarization spectra for multiple observer orientations in both cases. We find modest polarization levels (<1 per cent) for both explosion models. Polarization in the continuum peaks at ∼0.1–0.3 per cent and decreases after maximum light, in excellent agreement with spectropolarimetric data of normal Type Ia supernovae. Higher degrees of polarization are found across individual spectral lines. In particular, the synthetic Si II λ6355 profiles are polarized at levels that match remarkably well the values observed in normal Type Ia supernovae, while the low degrees of polarization predicted across the O I λ7774 region are consistent with the non-detection of this feature in current data. We conclude that our models can reproduce many of the characteristics of both flux and polarization spectra for well-studied Type Ia supernovae, such as SN 2001el and SN 2012fr. However, the two models considered here cannot account for the unusually high level of polarization observed in extreme cases such as SN 2004dt.

The Status of Multi-Dimensional Core-Collapse Supernova Models

Models of neutrino-driven core-collapse supernova explosions have matured considerably in recent years. Explosions of low-mass progenitors can routinely be simulated in 1D, 2D, and 3D. Nucleosynthesis calculations indicate that these supernovae could be contributors of some lighter neutron-rich elements beyond iron. The explosion mechanism of more massive stars remains under investigation, although first 3D models of neutrino-driven explosions employing multi-group neutrino transport have become available. Together with earlier 2D models and more simplified 3D simulations, these have elucidated the interplay between neutrino heating and hydrodynamic instabilities in the post-shock region that is essential for shock revival. However, some physical ingredients may still need to be added/improved before simulations can robustly explain supernova explosions over a wide range of progenitors. Solutions recently suggested in the literature include uncertainties in the neutrino rates, rotation, and seed perturbations from convective shell burning. We review the implications of 3D simulations of shell burning in supernova progenitors for the ‘perturbations-aided neutrino-driven mechanism,’ whose efficacy is illustrated by the first successful multi-group neutrino hydrodynamics simulation of an 18 solar mass progenitor with 3D initial conditions. We conclude with speculations about the impact of 3D effects on the structure of massive stars through convective boundary mixing.

The Roles of Land and Orography on Precipitation and Ocean Circulation in Global Climate Models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Shock Train/Boundary-Layer Interaction in Rectangular Scramjet Isolators

Numerous studies of the dual-mode scramjet isolator, a critical component in preventing inlet unstart and/or vehicle loss by containing a collection of flow disturbances called a shock train, have been performed since the dual-mode propulsion cycle was introduced in the 1960s. Low momentum corner flow and other three-dimensional effects inherent to rectangular isolators have, however, been largely ignored in experimental studies of the boundary layer separation driven isolator shock train dynamics. Furthermore, the use of two dimensional diagnostic techniques in past works, be it single-perspective line-of-sight schlieren/shadowgraphy or single axis wall pressure measurements, have been unable to resolve the three-dimensional flow features inside the rectangular isolator. These flow characteristics need to be thoroughly understood if robust dual-mode scramjet designs are to be fielded. The work presented in this thesis is focused on experimentally analyzing shock train/boundary layer interactions from multiple perspectives in aspect ratio 1.0, 3.0, and 6.0 rectangular isolators with inflow Mach numbers ranging from 2.4 to 2.7. Secondary steady-state Computational Fluid Dynamics studies are performed to compare to the experimental results and to provide additional perspectives of the flow field. Specific issues that remain unresolved after decades of isolator shock train studies that are addressed in this work include the three-dimensional formation of the isolator shock train front, the spatial and temporal low momentum corner flow separation scales, the transient behavior of shock train/boundary layer interaction at specific coordinates along the isolator's lateral axis, and effects of the rectangular geometry on semi-empirical relations for shock train length prediction. A novel multiplane shadowgraph technique is developed to resolve the structure of the shock train along both the minor and major duct axis simultaneously. It is shown that the shock train front is of a hybrid oblique/normal nature. Initial low momentum corner flow separation spawns the formation of oblique shock planes which interact and proceed toward the center flow region, becoming more normal in the process. The hybrid structure becomes more two-dimensional as aspect ratio is increased but corner flow separation precedes center flow separation on the order of 1 duct height for all aspect ratios considered. Additional instantaneous oil flow surface visualization shows the symmetry of the three-dimensional shock train front around the lower wall centerline. Quantitative synthetic schlieren visualization shows the density gradient magnitude approximately double between the corner oblique and center flow normal structures. Fast response pressure measurements acquired near the corner region of the duct show preliminary separation in the outer regions preceding centerline separation on the order of 2 seconds. Non-intrusive Focusing Schlieren Deflectometry Velocimeter measurements reveal that both shock train oscillation frequency and velocity component decrease as measurements are taken away from centerline and towards the side-wall region, along with confirming the more two dimensional shock train front approximation for higher aspect ratios. An updated modification to Waltrup \& Billig's original semi-empirical shock train length relation for circular ducts based on centerline pressure measurements is introduced to account for rectangular isolator aspect ratio, upstream corner separation length scale, and major- and minor-axis boundary layer momentum thickness asymmetry. The latter is derived both experimentally and computationally and it is shown that the major-axis (side-wall) boundary layer has lower momentum thickness compared to the minor-axis (nozzle bounded) boundary layer, making it more separable. Furthermore, it is shown that the updated correlation drastically improves shock train length prediction capabilities in higher aspect ratio isolators. This thesis suggests that performance analysis of rectangular confined supersonic flow fields can no longer be based on observations and measurements obtained along a single axis alone. Knowledge gained by the work performed in this study will allow for the development of more robust shock train leading edge detection techniques and isolator designs which can greatly mitigate the risk of inlet unstart and/or vehicle loss in flight.

Three dimensional models of water flow in the Persian Gulf

Persian Gulf region is globally of great importance due to its economical and political reasons. The importance lies in oil sources and sea exports. Geophysical phenomena dominated in the water circulation affected this region is called Monsoon it stretches from African coasts to the half way of Red Seal affected all coasts of Persian Gulf and goes toward east to the Indian ocean. Other essential factors in the water circulation in this region are net evaporation (several meters in per year), high density and high salinity. In this article the effects of wind stress and evaporation in the water circulation in the region will be considered and model equations for wind forces, density, pressure, gradient, and bottom friction for Persian Gulf will be discussed.

Thermomechanical sensitivity of microcantilever in the mid-infrared spectral region

This paper reports the thermomechanical sensitivity of bimaterial cantilevers over a mid-infrared (IR) spectral range (5-10 µm) that is critical both for chemical analysis via vibrational spectroscopy and for direct thermal detection in the 300-700 K range. Mechanical bending sensitivity and noise were measured and modeled for six commercially available microcantilevers, which consist of either an aluminum film on a silicon cantilever or a gold film on a silicon nitride cantilever. The spectral sensitivity of each cantilever was determined by recording cantilever deflection when illuminated with IR light from a monochromator. Rigorous modeling and systematic characterization of the optical system allowed for a quantitative estimate of IR energy incident upon the cantilever. Separately, spectral absorptance of the cantilever was measured using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) microscopy, which was compared with analytical models of radiation onto the cantilever and heat flow within the cantilever. The predictions of microcantilever thermomechanical bending sensitivity and noise agree well with measurements, resulting in a ranking of these cantilevers for their potential use in IR measurements.

Development of error correction techniques for nitrate-N load estimation models

Excess nutrient loads carried by streams and rivers are a great concern for environmental resource managers. In agricultural regions, excess loads are transported downstream to receiving water bodies, potentially causing algal blooms, which could lead to numerous ecological problems. To better understand nutrient load transport, and to develop appropriate water management plans, it is important to have accurate estimates of annual nutrient loads. This study used a Monte Carlo sub-sampling method and error-corrected statistical models to estimate annual nitrate-N loads from two watersheds in central Illinois. The performance of three load estimation methods (the seven-parameter log-linear model, the ratio estimator, and the flow-weighted averaging estimator) applied at one-, two-, four-, six-, and eight-week sampling frequencies were compared. Five error correction techniques; the existing composite method, and four new error correction techniques developed in this study; were applied to each combination of sampling frequency and load estimation method. On average, the most accurate error reduction technique, (proportional rectangular) resulted in 15% and 30% more accurate load estimates when compared to the most accurate uncorrected load estimation method (ratio estimator) for the two watersheds. Using error correction methods, it is possible to design more cost-effective monitoring plans by achieving the same load estimation accuracy with fewer observations. Finally, the optimum combinations of monitoring threshold and sampling frequency that minimizes the number of samples required to achieve specified levels of accuracy in load estimation were determined. For one- to three-weeks sampling frequencies, combined threshold/fixed-interval monitoring approaches produced the best outcomes, while fixed-interval-only approaches produced the most accurate results for four- to eight-weeks sampling frequencies.

Studies of turbulent flows in continuous casting of steel with and without magnetic field

This thesis develops and tests various transient and steady-state computational models such as direct numerical simulation (DNS), large eddy simulation (LES), filtered unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) and steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) with and without magnetic field to investigate turbulent flows in canonical as well as in the nozzle and mold geometries of the continuous casting process. The direct numerical simulations are first performed in channel, square and 2:1 aspect rectangular ducts to investigate the effect of magnetic field on turbulent flows. The rectangular duct is a more practical geometry for continuous casting nozzle and mold and has the option of applying magnetic field either perpendicular to broader side or shorter side. This work forms the part of a graphic processing unit (GPU) based CFD code (CU-FLOW) development for magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulent flows. The DNS results revealed interesting effects of the magnetic field and its orientation on primary, secondary flows (instantaneous and mean), Reynolds stresses, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budgets, momentum budgets and frictional losses, besides providing DNS database for two-wall bounded square and rectangular duct MHD turbulent flows. Further, the low- and high-Reynolds number RANS models (k-ε and Reynolds stress models) are developed and tested with DNS databases for channel and square duct flows with and without magnetic field. The MHD sink terms in k- and ε-equations are implemented as proposed by Kenjereš and Hanjalić using a user defined function (UDF) in FLUENT. This work revealed varying accuracies of different RANS models at different levels. This work is useful for industry to understand the accuracies of these models, including continuous casting. After realizing the accuracy and computational cost of RANS models, the steady-state k-ε model is then combined with the particle image velocimetry (PIV) and impeller probe velocity measurements in a 1/3rd scale water model to study the flow quality coming out of the well- and mountain-bottom nozzles and the effect of stopper-rod misalignment on fluid flow. The mountain-bottom nozzle was found more prone to the longtime asymmetries and higher surface velocities. The left misalignment of stopper gave higher surface velocity on the right leading to significantly large number of vortices forming behind the nozzle on the left. Later, the transient and steady-state models such as LES, filtered URANS and steady RANS models are combined with ultrasonic Doppler velocimetry (UDV) measurements in a GaInSn model of typical continuous casting process. LES-CU-LOW is the fastest and the most accurate model owing to much finer mesh and a smaller timestep. This work provided a good understanding on the performance of these models. The behavior of instantaneous flows, Reynolds stresses and proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) analysis quantified the nozzle bottom swirl and its importance on the turbulent flow in the mold. Afterwards, the aforementioned work in GaInSn model is extended with electromagnetic braking (EMBr) to help optimize a ruler-type brake and its location for the continuous casting process. The magnetic field suppressed turbulence and promoted vortical structures with their axis aligned with the magnetic field suggesting tendency towards 2-d turbulence. The stronger magnetic field at the nozzle well and around the jet region created large scale and lower frequency flow behavior by suppressing nozzle bottom swirl and its front-back alternation. Based on this work, it is advised to avoid stronger magnetic field around jet and nozzle bottom to get more stable and less defect prone flow.

Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Evolution of psychosocial factors at work in a French region

International audience

Retrievals of a size parameter for phytoplankton and spectral light absorption by colored detrital matter from water-leaving radiances at SeaWiFS channels in a continental shelf region off Brazil

Many efforts are currently oriented toward extracting more information from ocean color than the chlorophyll a concentration. Among biological parameters potentially accessible from space, estimates of phytoplankton cell size and light absorption by colored detrital matter (CDM) would lead to an indirect assessment of major components of the organic carbon pool in the ocean, which would benefit oceanic carbon budget models. We present here 2 procedures to retrieve simultaneously from ocean color measurements in a limited number of bands, magnitudes, and spectral shapes for both light absorption by CDM and phytoplankton, along with a size parameter for phytoplankton. The performance of the 2 procedures was evaluated using different data sets that correspond to increasing uncertainties: ( 1) measured absorption coefficients of phytoplankton, particulate detritus, and colored dissolved organic matter ( CDOM) and measured chlorophyll a concentrations and ( 2) SeaWiFS upwelling radiance measurements and chlorophyll a concentrations estimated from global algorithms. In situ data were acquired during 3 cruises, differing by their relative proportions in CDM and phytoplankton, over a continental shelf off Brazil. No local information was introduced in either procedure, to make them more generally applicable. Over the study area, the absorption coefficient of CDM at 443 nm was retrieved from SeaWiFS radiances with a relative root mean square error (RMSE) of 33%, and phytoplankton light absorption coefficients in SeaWiFS bands ( from 412 to 510 nm) were retrieved with RMSEs between 28% and 33%. These results are comparable to or better than those obtained by 3 published models. In addition, a size parameter of phytoplankton and the spectral slope of CDM absorption were retrieved with RMSEs of 17% and 22%, respectively. If these methods are applied at a regional scale, the performances could be substantially improved by locally tuning some empirical relationships.

Thermal models, lithosphere thickness and heat flow in South Portugal. Some comments about the subject

Reinterpretation of old heat flow data or use of new data and new techniques of detection of the temperature under the surface have conducted to new heat flow density values in some regions of the globe. The problem of ice melting in Greenland and Antarctica caught the public's attention to the importance of knowledge on heat flow values and thermal structure of the globe. In the last years, several models were presented trying to obtain lithosphere and Moho thickness of the Iberia Peninsula. The work we intend to present is related with the SW part of the Iberia Peninsula ( south of the Ossa Morena zone, South Portuguese Zone and Algarve). The results obtained show a decrease in the thickness of the crust and the lithosphere in this region. Density anomalies in the crust are also referred. I intend to make the connection between the results of these models and the heat flow thermal conductivity, heat production and geological data available for the region, trying to explain the results of heat flow density data obtained.

Can we use niche models of indicator species to predict the distribution of endangered communities?

European-wide conservation policies are based on the identification of priority habitats. However, research on conservation biogeography often relies on the results and projections of species distribution models to assess species' vulnerability to global change. We assess whether the distribution and structure of threatened communities can be predicted by the suitability of the environmental conditions for their indicator species. We present some preliminary results elucidating if using species distribution models of indicator species at a regional scale is a valid approach to predict these endangered communities. Dune plant assemblages, affected by severe conditions, are excellent models for studying possible interactions among their integrating species and the environment. We use data from an extensive survey of xerophytic inland sand dune scrub communities from Portugal, one of the most threatened habitat types of Europe. We identify indicator shrub species of different types of communities, model their geographical response to the environment, and evaluate whether the output of these niche models are able to predict the distribution of each type of community in a different region.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

“A long-term mortality analysis of subsidized firms in rural areas: an empirical study in the Portuguese Alentejo region”

Studies have demonstrated that public policies to support private firms’ investment have the ability to promote entrepreneurship, but the sustainability of subsidized firms has not often been analysed. This paper aims to examine this dimension specifically through evaluating the mortality of subsidized firms in the long-term. The analysis focuses on a case study of the LEADER+ Programme in the Alentejo region of Portugal. With this purpose, the paper examines the activity status (active or not active) of 154 private, rural, for-profit firms in Alentejo that had received a subsidy to support investment between 2002 and 2008 under the LEADER+ Programme. The methodology is based on binary choice models in order to study the probability of these firms still being active. The explanatory variables used are the following: (1) the characteristics of entrepreneurs and managers’ strategic decisions, (2) firm profile and characteristics, (3) regional economic environment. Data assessment showed that the cumulative mortality rate of firms on 31st December 2013 is over 20 %. Interpretation of the regression model revealed that he probability of firms’ survival increases with higher investment, firm age and regional business concentration, whereas the number of applications made by firms has a negative impact on their survival. So it seems that for subsidized firms the amount of investment is as important as its frequency.