Performance of the Equivalent Reservoir Modelling Technique for Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems

This paper investigates the validity of a simplified equivalent reservoir representation of a multi-reservoir hydroelectric system for modelling its optimal operation for power maximization. This simplification, proposed by Arvanitidis and Rosing (IEEE Trans Power Appar Syst 89(2):319-325, 1970), imputes a potential energy equivalent reservoir with energy inflows and outflows. The hydroelectric system is also modelled for power maximization considering individual reservoir characteristics without simplifications. Both optimization models employed MINOS package for solution of the non-linear programming problems. A comparison between total optimized power generation over the planning horizon by the two methods shows that the equivalent reservoir is capable of producing satisfactory power estimates with less than 6% underestimation. The generation and total reservoir storage trajectories along the planning horizon obtained by equivalent reservoir method, however, presented significant discrepancies as compared to those found in the detailed modelling. This study is motivated by the fact that Brazilian generation system operations are based on the equivalent reservoir method as part of the power dispatch procedures. The potential energy equivalent reservoir is an alternative which eliminates problems with the dimensionality of state variables in a dynamic programming model.

Parallel Dynamic Optimization of Steel Risers

This paper addresses the use of optimization techniques in the design of a steel riser. Two methods are used: the genetic algorithm, which imitates the process of natural selection, and the simulated annealing, which is based on the process of annealing of a metal. Both of them are capable of searching a given solution space for the best feasible riser configuration according to predefined criteria. Optimization issues are discussed, such as problem codification, parameter selection, definition of objective function, and restrictions. A comparison between the results obtained for economic and structural objective functions is made for a case study. Optimization method parallelization is also addressed. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4001955]

Local search multiuser detection

In this work, a wide analysis of local search multiuser detection (LS-MUD) for direct sequence/code division multiple access (DS/CDMA) systems under multipath channels is carried out considering the performance-complexity trade-off. It is verified the robustness of the LS-MUD to variations in loading, E(b)/N(0), near-far effect, number of fingers of the Rake receiver and errors in the channel coefficients estimates. A compared analysis of the bit error rate (BER) and complexity trade-off is accomplished among LS, genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO). Based on the deterministic behavior of the LS algorithm, it is also proposed simplifications over the cost function calculation, obtaining more efficient algorithms (simplified and combined LS-MUD versions) and creating new perspectives for the MUD implementation. The computational complexity is expressed in terms of the number of operations in order to converge. Our conclusion pointed out that the simplified LS (s-LS) method is always more efficient, independent of the system conditions, achieving a better performance with a lower complexity than the others heuristics detectors. Associated to this, the deterministic strategy and absence of input parameters made the s-LS algorithm the most appropriate for the MUD problem. (C) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

S/MIMO MC-CDMA Heuristic Multiuser Detectors Based on Single-Objective Optimization

This paper analyzes the complexity-performance trade-off of several heuristic near-optimum multiuser detection (MuD) approaches applied to the uplink of synchronous single/multiple-input multiple-output multicarrier code division multiple access (S/MIMO MC-CDMA) systems. Genetic algorithm (GA), short term tabu search (STTS) and reactive tabu search (RTS), simulated annealing (SA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and 1-opt local search (1-LS) heuristic multiuser detection algorithms (Heur-MuDs) are analyzed in details, using a single-objective antenna-diversity-aided optimization approach. Monte- Carlo simulations show that, after convergence, the performances reached by all near-optimum Heur-MuDs are similar. However, the computational complexities may differ substantially, depending on the system operation conditions. Their complexities are carefully analyzed in order to obtain a general complexity-performance framework comparison and to show that unitary Hamming distance search MuD (uH-ds) approaches (1-LS, SA, RTS and STTS) reach the best convergence rates, and among them, the 1-LS-MuD provides the best trade-off between implementation complexity and bit error rate (BER) performance.

QSAR Modeling of a Set of Pyrazinoate Esters as Antituberculosis Prodrugs

Tuberculosis is an infection caused mainly by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. A first-line antimycobacterial drug is pyrazinamide (PZA), which acts partially as a prodrug activated by a pyrazinamidase releasing the active agent, pyrazinoic acid (POA). As pyrazinoic acid presents some difficulty to cross the mycobacterial cell wall, and also the pyrazinamide-resistant strains do not express the pyrazinamidase, a set of pyrazinoic acid esters have been evaluated as antimycobacterial agents. In this work, a QSAR approach was applied to a set of forty-three pyrazinoates against M. tuberculosis ATCC 27294, using genetic algorithm function and partial least squares regression (WOLF 5.5 program). The independent variables selected were the Balaban index (I), calculated n-octanol/water partition coefficient (ClogP), van-der-Waals surface area, dipole moment, and stretching-energy contribution. The final QSAR model (N = 32, r(2) = 0.68, q(2) = 0.59, LOF = 0.25, and LSE = 0.19) was fully validated employing leave-N-out cross-validation and y-scrambling techniques. The test set (N = 11) presented an external prediction power of 73%. In conclusion, the QSAR model generated can be used as a valuable tool to optimize the activity of future pyrazinoic acid esters in the designing of new antituberculosis agents.

Molecular modeling and QSAR studies of a set of indole and benzimidazole derivatives as H(4) receptor antagonists

Histamine is an important biogenic amine, which acts with a group of four G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs), namely H(1) to H(4) (H(1)R - H(4)R) receptors. The actions of histamine at H(4)R are related to immunological and inflammatory processes, particularly in pathophysiology of asthma, and H(4)R ligands having antagonistic properties could be helpful as antiinflammatory agents. In this work, molecular modeling and QSAR studies of a set of 30 compounds, indole and benzimidazole derivatives, as H(4)R antagonists were performed. The QSAR models were built and optimized using a genetic algorithm function and partial least squares regression (WOLF 5.5 program). The best QSAR model constructed with training set (N = 25) presented the following statistical measures: r (2) = 0.76, q (2) = 0.62, LOF = 0.15, and LSE = 0.07, and was validated using the LNO and y-randomization techniques. Four of five compounds of test set were well predicted by the selected QSAR model, which presented an external prediction power of 80%. These findings can be quite useful to aid the designing of new anti-H(4) compounds with improved biological response.

Quantification of chlorpheniramine maleate enantiomers by ultraviolet spectroscopy and chemometric methods

Chlorpheniramine maleate (CLOR) enantiomers were quantified by ultraviolet spectroscopy and partial least squares regression. The CLOR enantiomers were prepared as inclusion complexes with beta-cyclodextrin and 1-butanol with mole fractions in the range from 50 to 100%. For the multivariate calibration the outliers were detected and excluded and variable selection was performed by interval partial least squares and a genetic algorithm. Figures of merit showed results for accuracy of 3.63 and 2.83% (S)-CLOR for root mean square errors of calibration and prediction, respectively. The ellipse confidence region included the point for the intercept and the slope of 1 and 0, respectively. Precision and analytical sensitivity were 0.57 and 0.50% (S)-CLOR, respectively. The sensitivity, selectivity, adjustment, and signal-to-noise ratio were also determined. The model was validated by a paired t test with the results obtained by high-performance liquid chromatography proposed by the European pharmacopoeia and circular dichroism spectroscopy. The results showed there was no significant difference between the methods at the 95% confidence level, indicating that the proposed method can be used as an alternative to standard procedures for chiral analysis.

Strategies for identifying and predicting islet autoantigen T-cell epitopes in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus

T cells recognize peptide epitopes bound to major histocompatibility complex molecules. Human T-cell epitopes have diagnostic and therapeutic applications in autoimmune diseases. However, their accurate definition within an autoantigen by T-cell bioassay, usually proliferation, involves many costly peptides and a large amount of blood, We have therefore developed a strategy to predict T-cell epitopes and applied it to tyrosine phosphatase IA-2, an autoantigen in IDDM, and HLA-DR4(*0401). First, the binding of synthetic overlapping peptides encompassing IA-2 was measured directly to purified DR4. Secondly, a large amount of HLA-DR4 binding data were analysed by alignment using a genetic algorithm and were used to train an artificial neural network to predict the affinity of binding. This bioinformatic prediction method was then validated experimentally and used to predict DR4 binding peptides in IA-2. The binding set encompassed 85% of experimentally determined T-cell epitopes. Both the experimental and bioinformatic methods had high negative predictive values, 92% and 95%, indicating that this strategy of combining experimental results with computer modelling should lead to a significant reduction in the amount of blood and the number of peptides required to define T-cell epitopes in humans.

Investment prioritization based on broadscale spatial budgeting to meet downstream targets for suspended sediment loads

On the basis of a spatially distributed sediment budget across a large basin, costs of achieving certain sediment reduction targets in rivers were estimated. A range of investment prioritization scenarios were tested to identify the most cost-effective strategy to control suspended sediment loads. The scenarios were based on successively introducing more information from the sediment budget. The relationship between spatial heterogeneity of contributing sediment sources on cost effectiveness of prioritization was investigated. Cost effectiveness was shown to increase with sequential introduction of sediment budget terms. The solution which most decreased cost was achieved by including spatial information linking sediment sources to the downstream target location. This solution produced cost curves similar to those derived using a genetic algorithm formulation. Appropriate investment prioritization can offer large cost savings because the magnitude of the costs can vary by several times depending on what type of erosion source or sediment delivery mechanism is targeted. Target settings which only consider the erosion source rates can potentially result in spending more money than random management intervention for achieving downstream targets. Coherent spatial patterns of contributing sediment emerge from the budget model and its many inputs. The heterogeneity in these patterns can be summarized in a succinct form. This summary was shown to be consistent with the cost difference between local and regional prioritization for three of four test catchments. To explain the effect for the fourth catchment, the detail of the individual sediment sources needed to be taken into account.

Is maximizing resilience compatible with established ecological goal functions?

Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] used a simple phytoplanktonzooplankton-nutrient model and a genetic algorithm to determine the parameter values that would maximize the value of certain goal functions. These goal functions were to maximize biomass, maximize flux, maximize flux to biomass ratio, and maximize resilience. It was found that maximizing goal functions maximized resilience. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] result was indicative of a general ecosystem principle, or peculiar to the model and parameter ranges used. This study successfully replicated the Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] experiment for a number of different model types, however, a different interpretation of the results is made. A new metric, concordance, was devised to describe the agreement between goal functions. It was found that resilience has the highest concordance of all goal functions trialled. for most model types. This implies that resilience offers a compromise between the established ecological goal functions. The parameter value range used is found to affect the parameter versus goal function relationships. Local maxima and minima affected the relationship between parameters and goal functions, and between goal functions. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

GA topology optimization using random keys for tree encoding of structures

Topology optimization consists in finding the spatial distribution of a given total volume of material for the resulting structure to have some optimal property, for instance, maximization of structural stiffness or maximization of the fundamental eigenfrequency. In this paper a Genetic Algorithm (GA) employing a representation method based on trees is developed to generate initial feasible individuals that remain feasible upon crossover and mutation and as such do not require any repairing operator to ensure feasibility. Several application examples are studied involving the topology optimization of structures where the objective functions is the maximization of the stiffness and the maximization of the first and the second eigenfrequencies of a plate, all cases having a prescribed material volume constraint.

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

A decision-support system based on particle swarm optimization for multiperiod hedging in electricity markets

This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to support electricity producers for multiperiod optimal contract allocation. The producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the tradeoff between the expectation and variance of the return. Variance estimation and expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a price range forecasting model developed by the authors. A certain confidence level is associated to each forecasted scenario interval. The proposed model makes use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. PSO performance was evaluated by comparing it with a genetic algorithm-based approach. This model can be used by producers in deregulated electricity markets but can easily be adapted to load serving entities and retailers. Moreover, it can easily be adapted to the use of other type of contracts.

Distributed energy resource short-term scheduling using signaled particle swarm optimization

Distributed Energy Resources (DER) scheduling in smart grids presents a new challenge to system operators. The increase of new resources, such as storage systems and demand response programs, results in additional computational efforts for optimization problems. On the other hand, since natural resources, such as wind and sun, can only be precisely forecasted with small anticipation, short-term scheduling is especially relevant requiring a very good performance on large dimension problems. Traditional techniques such as Mixed-Integer Non-Linear Programming (MINLP) do not cope well with large scale problems. This type of problems can be appropriately addressed by metaheuristics approaches. This paper proposes a new methodology called Signaled Particle Swarm Optimization (SiPSO) to address the energy resources management problem in the scope of smart grids, with intensive use of DER. The proposed methodology’s performance is illustrated by a case study with 99 distributed generators, 208 loads, and 27 storage units. The results are compared with those obtained in other methodologies, namely MINLP, Genetic Algorithm, original Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Evolutionary PSO, and New PSO. SiPSO performance is superior to the other tested PSO variants, demonstrating its adequacy to solve large dimension problems which require a decision in a short period of time.

An integrated approach for distributed energy resource short term scheduling in smart grids considering realistic power system simulation

The large increase of distributed energy resources, including distributed generation, storage systems and demand response, especially in distribution networks, makes the management of the available resources a more complex and crucial process. With wind based generation gaining relevance, in terms of the generation mix, the fact that wind forecasting accuracy rapidly drops with the increase of the forecast anticipation time requires to undertake short-term and very short-term re-scheduling so the final implemented solution enables the lowest possible operation costs. This paper proposes a methodology for energy resource scheduling in smart grids, considering day ahead, hour ahead and five minutes ahead scheduling. The short-term scheduling, undertaken five minutes ahead, takes advantage of the high accuracy of the very-short term wind forecasting providing the user with more efficient scheduling solutions. The proposed method uses a Genetic Algorithm based approach for optimization that is able to cope with the hard execution time constraint of short-term scheduling. Realistic power system simulation, based on PSCAD , is used to validate the obtained solutions. The paper includes a case study with a 33 bus distribution network with high penetration of distributed energy resources implemented in PSCAD .