Transition probabilities and duration analysis among disability states: Some evidence from Spanish data

In this paper we study the disability transition probabilities (as well as the mortalityprobabilities) due to concurrent factors to age such as income, gender and education. Althoughit is well known that ageing and socioeconomic status influence the probability ofcausing functional disorders, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the combined effectof those factors along the individuals' life and how this affects the transition from one degreeof disability to another. The assumption that tomorrow's disability state is only a functionof the today's state is very strong, since disability is a complex variable that depends onseveral other elements than time. This paper contributes into the field in two ways: (1) byattending the distinction between the initial disability level and the process that leads tohis course (2) by addressing whether and how education, age and income differentially affectthe disability transitions. Using a Markov chain discrete model and a survival analysis, weestimate the probability by year and individual characteristics that changes the state of disabilityand the duration that it takes its progression in each case. We find that people withan initial state of disability have a higher propensity to change and take less time to transitfrom different stages. Men do that more frequently than women. Education and incomehave negative effects on transition. Moreover, we consider the disability benefits associatedto those changes along different stages of disability and therefore we offer some clues onthe potential savings of preventive actions that may delay or avoid those transitions. Onpure cost considerations, preventive programs for improvement show higher benefits thanthose for preventing deterioration, and in general terms, those focussing individuals below65 should go first. Finally the trend of disability in Spain seems not to change among yearsand regional differences are not found.

Audit report on the Peace Officers' Retirement, Accident and Disability System for the year ended June 30, 2007

Audit report on the Peace Officers' Retirement, Accident and Disability System for the year ended June 30, 2007

Award errors and permanent disability benefits in Spain

There is a controversial debate about the effects of permanent disability benefits on labormarket behavior. In this paper we estimate equations for deserving and receiving disabilitybenefits to evaluate the award error as the difference in the probability of receiving anddeserving using survey data from Spain. Our results indicate that individuals aged between55 and 59, self-employers or working in an agricultural sector have a probability of receiving a benefit without deserving it significantly higher than the rest of individuals. We also find evidence of gender discrimination since male have a significantly higher probability of receiving a benefit without deserving it. This seems to confirm that disability benefits are being used as an instrument for exiting the labor market for some individuals approaching the early retirement or those who do not have right to retire early. Taking into account that awarding process depends on Social Security Provincial Department, this means that some departments are applying loosely the disability requirements for granting disability benefits.

Disability, capacity for work and the business cycle: An international perspective

An important policy issue in recent years concerns the number of people claimingdisability benefits for reasons of incapacity for work. We distinguish between workdisability , which may have its roots in economic and social circumstances, and healthdisability which arises from clear diagnosed medical conditions. Although there is a linkbetween work and health disability, economic conditions, and in particular the businesscycle and variations in the risk of unemployment over time and across localities, mayplay an important part in explaining both the stock of disability benefit claimants andinflows to and outflow from that stock. We employ a variety of cross?country andcountry?specific household panel data sets, as well as administrative data, to testwhether disability benefit claims rise when unemployment is higher, and also toinvestigate the impact of unemployment rates on flows on and off the benefit rolls. Wefind strong evidence that local variations in unemployment have an importantexplanatory role for disability benefit receipt, with higher total enrolments, loweroutflows from rolls and, often, higher inflows into disability rolls in regions and periodsof above?average unemployment. Although general subjective measures of selfreporteddisability and longstanding illness are also positively associated withunemployment rates, inclusion of self?reported health measures does not eliminate thestatistical relationship between unemployment rates and disability benefit receipt;indeed including general measures of health often strengthens that underlyingrelationship. Intriguingly, we also find some evidence from the United Kingdom and theUnited States that the prevalence of self?reported objective specific indicators ofdisability are often pro?cyclical that is, the incidence of specific forms of disability arepro?cyclical whereas claims for disability benefits given specific health conditions arecounter?cyclical. Overall, the analysis suggests that, for a range of countries and datasets, levels of claims for disability benefits are not simply related to changes in theincidence of health disability in the population and are strongly influenced by prevailingeconomic conditions. We discuss the policy implications of these various findings.

Fermat's treatise on quadrature: A new reading

The Treatise on Quadrature of Fermat (c. 1659), besides containing the first known proof of the computation of the area under a higher parabola, R x+m/n dx, or under a higher hyperbola, R x-m/n dx with the appropriate limits of integration in each case , has a second part which was not understood by Fermat s contemporaries. This second part of the Treatise is obscure and difficult to read and even the great Huygens described it as'published with many mistakes and it is so obscure (with proofs redolent of error) that I have been unable to make any sense of it'. Far from the confusion that Huygens attributes to it, in this paper we try to prove that Fermat, in writing the Treatise, had a very clear goal in mind and he managed to attain it by means of a simple and original method. Fermat reduced the quadrature of a great number of algebraic curves to the quadrature of known curves: the higher parabolas and hyperbolas of the first part of the paper. Others, he reduced to the quadrature of the circle. We shall see how the clever use of two procedures, quite novel at the time: the change of variables and a particular case of the formulaof integration by parts, provide Fermat with the necessary tools to square very easily curves as well-known as the folium of Descartes, the cissoid of Diocles or the witch of Agnesi.

Audit report on the Peace Officers' Retirement, Accident and Disability System for the year ended June 30, 2008

Audit report on the Peace Officers' Retirement, Accident and Disability System for the year ended June 30, 2008

Variation in performance across Swiss mammography screening programmes: the influence of reading strategy and experience.

[Abstract] Reading volume and mammography screening performance appear positively correlated. Performance was compared across organised Swiss screening programmes, which target relatively small populations. Except for accreditation of 2nd readers radiologists (restrictive vs non-restrictive strategy), Swiss programmes have similar screening regimen/procedures and duration, which maximises comparability. Variation in performance was explored in order to improve mammography practice and optimise screening performance. Indicators of quality and effectiveness were evaluated for about 200,000 screens performed over 4 screening rounds in the 3 longest-standing Swiss cantonal programmes (of Vaud, Geneva and Valais). Interval cancers were identified by linkage with cancer registries records. Most European standards of performance were met with a favourable cancer stage shift. Several performance indicators showed substantial variation across programmes. In subsequent rounds, compared with programmes (Vaud and Geneva) which accredited few 2nd readers to increase their individual reading volume, proportions of in situ lesions and of small cancers (? 1cm) were one third lower and halved, respectively, and the proportion of advanced lesions (stage II+) nearly 50% higher in the programme without a restrictive selection strategy. Discrepancy in second-year proportional incidence of interval cancers appears to be multicausal. Differences in performance could partly be explained by a selective strategy for 2nd readers and a prior experience in service screening, but not by the levels of opportunistic screening and programme attendance. This study provides clues for enhancing mammography screening performance in low-volume Swiss programmes.

Disabilities Benefits for Special Services Disability, July 2008

IPERS provides the security you need through guaranteed benefits. With IPERS, unlike other retirement plans, benefits aren’t tied to the performance of the stock market and you don’t need to be an experienced investor to make your retirement dreams a reality. Your IPERS benefits are only one part of your overall retirement savings. Your total retirement income will come from a combination of your IPERS benefits, social security, personal savings, and any other retirement plan benefits.

Disabilities Benefits for Special Services Disability, July 2008

IPERS provides the security you need through guaranteed benefits. With IPERS, unlike other retirement plans, benefits aren’t tied to the performance of the stock market and you don’t need to be an experienced investor to make your retirement dreams a reality. Your IPERS benefits are only one part of your overall retirement savings. Your total retirement income will come from a combination of your IPERS benefits, social security, personal savings, and any other retirement plan benefits.

Audit report on the Peace Officers' Retirement, Accident and Disability System for the year ended June 30, 2009

Audit report on the Peace Officers' Retirement, Accident and Disability System for the year ended June 30, 2009