Forecasting the term structure of volatility of crude oil price changes

Peer reviewed

Structure et évolution du pergélisol depuis le Pléistocène Tardif, Beaver Creek, Yukon

Le site routier expérimental de Beaver Creek (62º 20’ 20’’ N – 140º 50’ 10’’ O) est sis sur la moraine de Beaver Creek pré datant le Dernier Maximum Glaciaire. Dans un périmètre d’un kilomètre carré, son relief, sa végétation, son sol et sa cryostratigraphie ont été étudiés avec une perspective géosystémique, afin d’en détailler la catena et sa structure. Ensuite, la cryostratigraphie a été interprétée pour suggérer un modèle d’évolution du paysage. Enfin, les changements récents y ont été intégrés en vue d’actualiser la tendance évolutive du géosystème. Il ressort de cet ouvrage que la durabilité du pergélisol est fortement appuyée par la présence des milieux humides dans les replats. Quelques affleurements de la moraine sont toujours visibles, quoique faiblement exprimés. Ils contiennent peu de glace et leur teneur en matière organique est mince. Quant aux dépressions, elles sont peu profondes et étendues. Non seulement elles ont hérité des sédiments érodés des crêtes, mais elles ont aussi fixé une quantité importante de glace et de matière organique par le truchement d’un pergélisol syngénétique (>15 m) généré par le climat et protégé par l’écosystème. Au moins un évènement de thermo-érosion est survenu avant le dernier stade d’aggradation syngénétique (Holocène), mais il n’a été que partiel. L’actuel réchauffement climatique menace d’engager un autre épisode de dégradation à l’échelle du bassin versant. Contrairement au changement climatique, l’utilisation du territoire provoque déjà la dégradation du pergélisol, mais de manière localisée seulement.

Structure et évolution du pergélisol depuis le Pléistocène Tardif, Beaver Creek, Yukon

Le site routier expérimental de Beaver Creek (62º 20’ 20’’ N – 140º 50’ 10’’ O) est sis sur la moraine de Beaver Creek pré datant le Dernier Maximum Glaciaire. Dans un périmètre d’un kilomètre carré, son relief, sa végétation, son sol et sa cryostratigraphie ont été étudiés avec une perspective géosystémique, afin d’en détailler la catena et sa structure. Ensuite, la cryostratigraphie a été interprétée pour suggérer un modèle d’évolution du paysage. Enfin, les changements récents y ont été intégrés en vue d’actualiser la tendance évolutive du géosystème. Il ressort de cet ouvrage que la durabilité du pergélisol est fortement appuyée par la présence des milieux humides dans les replats. Quelques affleurements de la moraine sont toujours visibles, quoique faiblement exprimés. Ils contiennent peu de glace et leur teneur en matière organique est mince. Quant aux dépressions, elles sont peu profondes et étendues. Non seulement elles ont hérité des sédiments érodés des crêtes, mais elles ont aussi fixé une quantité importante de glace et de matière organique par le truchement d’un pergélisol syngénétique (>15 m) généré par le climat et protégé par l’écosystème. Au moins un évènement de thermo-érosion est survenu avant le dernier stade d’aggradation syngénétique (Holocène), mais il n’a été que partiel. L’actuel réchauffement climatique menace d’engager un autre épisode de dégradation à l’échelle du bassin versant. Contrairement au changement climatique, l’utilisation du territoire provoque déjà la dégradation du pergélisol, mais de manière localisée seulement.

Changes in the community structure of urban and rural forest patches in Baltimore from 1998 to 2015

Urban forests are often highly fragmented with many exotic species. Altered disturbance regimes and environmental pollutants influence urban forest vegetation. One of the best ways to understand the impacts of land-use on forest composition is through long-term research. In 1998, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study established eight forest plots to investigate the impacts of urbanization on natural ecosystems. Four plots were located in urban forest patches and four were located in rural forests. In 2015, I revisited these plots to measure abundances and quantify change in forest composition, diversity, and structure. Sapling, shrub, and seedling abundance were reduced in the rural plots. Alpha diversity and turnover was lower in the rural plots. Beta diversity was reduced in the rural plots. The structure of the urban plots was mostly unchanged, except for a highly reduced sapling layer. Beta diversity in the urban plots was consistent across surveys due to high species turnover.

Umbelliferone induces changes in the structure and pharmacological activities of Bn IV, a phospholipase A(2) isoform isolated from Bothrops neuwiedi

In this paper was demonstrated that umbelliferone induces changes in structure and pharmacological activities of Bn IV, a lysine 49 secretory phospholipase A(2) (sPLA2) from Both tops neuwiedi. Incubation of Bn IV with umbelliferone virtually abolished platelet aggregation, edema, and myotoxicity induced by native Bn IV. The amino acid sequence of Bn IV showed high sequence similarities with other Lys49 sPLA2s from B. jararacussu (BthTx-I), B. pirajai (PrTx-I), and B. neuwiedi pauloensis (Bn SP6 and Bn SP7). This sPLA2 also has a highly conserved C-terminal amino acid sequence, which has been shown as important for the pharmacological activities of Lys49 sPLA2. Sequencing of Bn IV previously treated with umbelliferone revealed modification of S(1) and S(20). Fluorescent spectral analysis and circular dichroism (CD) studies showed that umbelliferone modified the secondary structure of this protein. Moreover, the pharmacological activity of Bn IV is driven by synergism of the C-terminal region with the a-helix motifs, which are involved in substrate binding of the Asp49 and Lys49 residues of 5PLA2 and have a direct effect on the Ca2+-independent membrane damage of some secretory snake venom PLA2. For Bn IV, these interactions are potentially important for triggering the pharmacological activity of this 5PLA2. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changes in fish assemblage structure after implementation of Marine Protected Areas in the south western coast of Portugal.

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are increasingly being recommended as management tools for biodiversity conservation and fisheries. With the purpose of protecting the region's biodiversity and prevent the over exploitation of marine resources, in February 2011 the no-take MPAs of Ilha do Pessegueiro and Cabo Sard~ao were implemented within the “Parque Natural do Sudoeste Alentejano e Costa Vicentina “(PNSACV) Marine Park, south western coast of Portugal. As such, commercial and recreational fishing became prohibited in these areas. In order to evaluate the effects of these no-take MPAs, the structure of their fish assemblages and of adjacent control areas without fishing restrictions were studied between 2011 (immediately after implementation) and 2013 (two years after implementation). A total of 4 sampling campaigns were conducted (summer 2011, winter 2012, summer 2013 and winter 2013) using trammel nets and bottom trawl. Ichthyofaunal assemblages from the no-take MPAs (treatment) were compared with adjacent areas (controls) and changes evaluated as a function of time since protection. Results revealed significant increase in fish abundance after the implementation of the no-take MPAs. Furthermore, significant differences in the structure of fish assemblages (abundance and fish size) between protected and neighbouring areas were rapidly observed upon the implementation of the no-take MPAs. In addition, specimens of larger size occurred more frequently within Ilha do Pessegueiro no-take MPA in the last year of the study. Overall, despite the young age of these no-take MPAs, changes on the structure of their fish assemblages were already evident after only two years of protection, indicating that management measures such as MPA designation may play an important role to promote fisheries sustainable exploitation as well as to protect species with conservation interest.

Changes In The Bacterial Community Of Soil From A Neutral Mine Drainage Channel.

Mine drainage is an important environmental disturbance that affects the chemical and biological components in natural resources. However, little is known about the effects of neutral mine drainage on the soil bacteria community. Here, a high-throughput 16S rDNA pyrosequencing approach was used to evaluate differences in composition, structure, and diversity of bacteria communities in samples from a neutral drainage channel, and soil next to the channel, at the Sossego copper mine in Brazil. Advanced statistical analyses were used to explore the relationships between the biological and chemical data. The results showed that the neutral mine drainage caused changes in the composition and structure of the microbial community, but not in its diversity. The Deinococcus/Thermus phylum, especially the Meiothermus genus, was in large part responsible for the differences between the communities, and was positively associated with the presence of copper and other heavy metals in the environmental samples. Other important parameters that influenced the bacterial diversity and composition were the elements potassium, sodium, nickel, and zinc, as well as pH. The findings contribute to the understanding of bacterial diversity in soils impacted by neutral mine drainage, and demonstrate that heavy metals play an important role in shaping the microbial population in mine environments.

Impact Of Chemical Changes On The Sensory Characteristics Of Coffee Beans During Storage.

Sensory changes during the storage of coffee beans occur mainly due to lipid oxidation and are responsible for the loss of commercial value. This work aimed to verify how sensory changes of natural coffee and pulped natural coffee are related to the oxidative processes during 15 months of storage. During this period, changes in the content of free fatty acids (1.4-3.8 mg/g oil), TBARS values (8.8-10.2 nmol MDA/g), and carbonyl groups (2.6-3.5 nmol/mg of protein) occurred. The intensity of rested coffee flavour in the coffee brew increased (2.1-6.7) and 5-caffeoylquinic acid concentration decreased (5.2-4.6g/100g). Losses were also observed in seed viability, colour of the beans and cellular structure. All the results of the chemical analyses are coherent with the oxidative process that occurred in the grains during storage. Therefore, oxidation would be also responsible for the loss of cellular structure, seed viability and sensory changes.

Growth Factor Stimulation Improves The Structure And Properties Of Scaffold-free Engineered Auricular Cartilage Constructs.

The reconstruction of the external ear to correct congenital deformities or repair following trauma remains a significant challenge in reconstructive surgery. Previously, we have developed a novel approach to create scaffold-free, tissue engineering elastic cartilage constructs directly from a small population of donor cells. Although the developed constructs appeared to adopt the structural appearance of native auricular cartilage, the constructs displayed limited expression and poor localization of elastin. In the present study, the effect of growth factor supplementation (insulin, IGF-1, or TGF-β1) was investigated to stimulate elastogenesis as well as to improve overall tissue formation. Using rabbit auricular chondrocytes, bioreactor-cultivated constructs supplemented with either insulin or IGF-1 displayed increased deposition of cartilaginous ECM, improved mechanical properties, and thicknesses comparable to native auricular cartilage after 4 weeks of growth. Similarly, growth factor supplementation resulted in increased expression and improved localization of elastin, primarily restricted within the cartilaginous region of the tissue construct. Additional studies were conducted to determine whether scaffold-free engineered auricular cartilage constructs could be developed in the 3D shape of the external ear. Isolated auricular chondrocytes were grown in rapid-prototyped tissue culture molds with additional insulin or IGF-1 supplementation during bioreactor cultivation. Using this approach, the developed tissue constructs were flexible and had a 3D shape in very good agreement to the culture mold (average error <400 µm). While scaffold-free, engineered auricular cartilage constructs can be created with both the appropriate tissue structure and 3D shape of the external ear, future studies will be aimed assessing potential changes in construct shape and properties after subcutaneous implantation.

Changes In The Connective Tissue Sheath Of Wistar Rat Nerve With Aging.

The alterations due to aging in the peripheral nerves can affect the physiology of these structures. Thus, the purpose of the present study was to describe the activity of the MMP-2 and MMP-9, as well as the structure and composition of the extracellular matrix of the rat sciatic nerve during maturation and aging. Our results have shown that the extracellular matrix of the sciatic nerve of 30-, 180- and 730-day-old Wistar rats present ultrastructural, morphometrical and biochemical changes during aging. The perineurium was the structure most affected by age, as evidenced by a decrease in thickness and in collagen fibril content. Cytochemical analysis detected proteoglycans in the basal membrane of Schwann cells and around perineural cells, as well as on the collagen fibrils of the perineurium and endoneurium at all ages. Biochemical analyses showed that the quantity of non-collagenous proteins was higher in 730-day-old animals compared to other ages, while the uronic acid content was higher in 30-day-old animals. Morphometrical analysis detected greater numbers of myelinated fibers and increased myelin thickness in 180-day-old animals. Zymography analysis detected greater amounts and activity of MMP-2 and MMP-9 in 180- and 730-day-old animals compared to younger rats. In conclusion, our results showed changes in the structural organization and composition of extracellular matrix of the sciatic nerve during aging, such as increase in the non-collagenous protein content and higher MMP-2 and MMP-9 activity, decrease in uronic acid concentration and in collagen fibril content in the perineurium, as well as degeneration of nerve fibers.

Nectar Robbery By A Hermit Hummingbird: Association To Floral Phenotype And Its Influence On Flowers And Network Structure.

Interactions between flowers and their visitors span the spectrum from mutualism to antagonism. The literature is rich in studies focusing on mutualism, but nectar robbery has mostly been investigated using phytocentric approaches focused on only a few plant species. To fill this gap, we studied the interactions between a nectar-robbing hermit hummingbird, Phaethornis ruber, and the array of flowers it visits. First, based on a literature review of the interactions involving  P. ruber, we characterized the association of floral larceny to floral phenotype. We then experimentally examined the effects of nectar robbing on nectar standing crop and number of visits of the pollinators to the flowers of Canna paniculata. Finally, we asked whether the incorporation of illegitimate interactions into the analysis affects plant-hummingbird network structure. We identified 97 plant species visited by P. ruber and found that P. ruber engaged in floral larceny in almost 30 % of these species. Nectar robbery was especially common in flowers with longer corolla. In terms of the effect on C. paniculata, the depletion of nectar due to robbery by P. ruber was associated with decreased visitation rates of legitimate pollinators. At the community level, the inclusion of the illegitimate visits of P. ruber resulted in modifications of how modules within the network were organized, notably giving rise to a new module consisting of P. ruber and mostly robbed flowers. However, although illegitimate visits constituted approximately 9 % of all interactions in the network, changes in nestedness, modularity, and network-level specialization were minor. Our results indicate that although a flower robber may have a strong effect on the pollination of a particular plant species, the inclusion of its illegitimate interactions has limited capacity to change overall network structure.

Is size structure a good measure of future trends of plant populations? an empirical approach using five woody species from the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna)

Size distributions in woody plant populations have been used to assess their regeneration status, assuming that size structures with reverse-J shapes represent stable populations. We present an empirical approach of this issue using five woody species from the Cerrado. Considering count data for all plants of these five species over a 12-year period, we analyzed size distribution by: a) plotting frequency distributions and their adjustment to the negative exponential curve and b) calculating the Gini coefficient. To look for a relationship between size structure and future trends, we considered the size structures from the first census year. We analyzed changes in number over time and performed a simple population viability analysis, which gives the mean population growth rate, its variance and the probability of extinction in a given time period. Frequency distributions and the Gini coefficient were not able to predict future trends in population numbers. We recommend that managers should not use measures of size structure as a basis for management decisions without applying more appropriate demographic studies.

The Southern Brazilian shelf: general characteristics, quaternary evolution and sediment distribution

Extending from latitude 34ºS to 22ºS the Southern Brazilian shelf constitutes the only part of the Brazilian shelf with a subtropical to temperate environment. The studies on the different geological aspects of the area began in the 1960's and have recently been reassessed after studies related to the determination of the Economic Exclusive Zone. In terms of morphology, the Southern Brazilian shelf may be divided into three sectors, the São Paulo Bight, the Florianópolis-Mostardas Sector and the Rio Grande Cone, characterized by conspicuous differences in terms of geological determining factors, bathymetry, declivities and the presence of canyons and channels. Despite the existence of hundreds of radiocarbon datings the sea level changes curve of southern Brazil during the Last Glacial Cycle is still a matter of debate. A recent controversy on the Middle and late Holocene sea level changes curve raised the question of the amplitude of the oscillations which occurred in the period. Also, a few but relatively consistent radiocarbon datings suggest the occurrence of a high sea level during Isotope Stage 3. In terms of sedimentary cover the Southern Brazilian shelf exhibits a very strong hydrodynamic control, both latitudinal and bathymetrical. The sector southward from 25ºS is characterized by the influence of the plume of water carrying sediments originating from the Río de La Plata. Actually its presence is conspicuous up to 28ºS, with the area between this latitude and 25ºS constituting a transitional zone. In terms of bathymetry the outer shelf is marked by the "floor-polisher" effect of the Brazil Current, which is responsible for the maintenance of a relict facies in areas deeper than 100 meters.

The Staircase Structure of the Southern Brazilian Continental Shelf

We show some evidences that the Southeastern Brazilian Continental Shelf (SBCS) has a devil's staircase structure, with a sequence of scarps and terraces with widths that obey fractal formation rules. Since the formation of these features is linked with the sea-level variations, we say that the sea level changes in an organized pulsating way. Although the proposed approach was applied in a particular region of the Earth, it is suitable to be applied in an integrated way to other shelves around the world, since the analyses favor the revelation of the global sea-level variations. Copyright (C) 2009 M. S. Baptista and L. A. Conti.