952 resultados para prior probabilities


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Effects of the dihydropyridine, nimodipine, an antagonist at L-type calcium channels, on the memory loss in rats caused by long term alcohol consumption were examined. Either a single dose of nimodipine or 2 weeks of repeated administration was given prior to withdrawal from 8 months of alcohol consumption. Memory was measured by the object recognition test and the T maze. Both nimodipine treatments prevented the memory deficits when these were measured between 1 and 2 months after alcohol withdrawal. At the end of the memory testing, 2 months after cessation of chronic alcohol consumption, glucocorticoid concentrations were increased in specific regions of rat brain without changes in plasma concentrations. Both nimodipine treatment schedules substantially reduced these rises in brain glucocorticoid. The data indicate that blockade of L-type calcium channels prior to alcohol withdrawal protects against the memory deficits caused by prolonged alcohol intake. This shows that specific drug treatments, such as nimodipine, given over the acute withdrawal phase, can prevented the neuronal changes responsible for subsequent adverse effects of long term consumption of alcohol. The results also suggest the possibility that regional brain glucocorticoid increases may be involved in the adverse effects of long term alcohol intake on memory. Such local changes in brain glucocorticoid levels would have major effects on neuronal function. The studies indicate that L-type calcium channels and brain glucocorticoid levels could form new targets for the treatment of cognitive deficits in alcoholics.

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AIMS: In the Swiss heroin substitution trials, patients are treated with self-administered diacetylmorphine (heroin). Intravenous administration is not possible in patients that have venosclerosis. Earlier studies have demonstrated that oral diacetylmorphine may be used, although it is completely converted to morphine presystemically. Morphine bioavailability after high-dose oral diacetylmorphine is considerably higher than would be predicted from low-dose trials. The aim was to investigate whether the unexpectedly high bioavailability is due to a difference in the drug examined, and whether it depends on previous exposure or on dose. METHODS: Opioid-naive healthy volunteers and dependent patients from the Swiss heroin trials (n = 8 per group) received low doses of intravenous and oral deuterium-labelled morphine and diacetylmorphine, respectively. Patients also received a high oral diacetylmorphine dose. RESULTS: The maximum plasma concentration (C(max)) of morphine was twofold higher after oral diacetylmorphine than after morphine administration in both groups. However, morphine bioavailability was considerably higher in chronic users [diacetylmorphine 45.6% (95% confidence interval 40.0, 51.3), morphine 37.2% (30.1, 44.3)] than in naive subjects [diacetylmorphine 22.9% (16.4, 29.4), morphine 23.9% (16.5, 31.2)] after low oral doses (48.5 micromol) of either diacetylmorphine or morphine. Morphine clearance was similar in both groups. Moreover, oral absorption of morphine from diacetylmorphine was found to be dose dependent, with bioavailability reaching 64.2% (55.3, 73.1) for high diacetylmorphine doses (1601 micromol). CONCLUSIONS: Oral absorption of opioids is substance-, dose- and patient collective-dependent, suggesting that there may be a saturation of first-pass processes, the exact mechanism of which is not yet understood.

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SUMMARY: Remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities for osteoporotic fractures were determined by gender, age, and BMD values. Remaining lifetime probability at age 50 years was 20.2% in men and 51.3% in women and increased with advancing age and decreasing BMD. The study validates the elements required to populate a Swiss-specific FRAX model. INTRODUCTION: Switzerland belongs to high-risk countries for osteoporosis. Based on demographic projections, burden will still increase. We assessed remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities for osteoporotic fractures by gender, age and BMD in order to populate FRAX algorithm for Switzerland. METHODS: Osteoporotic fracture incidence was determined from national epidemiological data for hospitalised fractured patients from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics in 2000 and results of a prospective Swiss cohort with almost 5,000 fractured patients in 2006. Validated BMD-associated fracture risk was used together with national death incidence and risk tables to determine remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year fracture probabilities for hip and major osteoporotic (hip, spine, distal radius, proximal humerus) fractures. RESULTS: Major osteoporotic fractures incidence was 773 and 2,078 per 100,000 men and women aged 50 and older. Corresponding remaining lifetime probabilities at age 50 were 20.2% and 51.3%. Hospitalisation for clinical spine, distal radius, and proximal humerus fractures reached 25%, 30% and 50%, respectively. Absolute 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture increased with advancing age and decreasing BMD and was higher in women than in men. CONCLUSION: This study validates the elements required to populate a Swiss-specific FRAX model, a country at highest risk for osteoporotic fractures.

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PURPOSE: To evaluate the consecutive treatment results regarding pterygium recurrence and the efficacy of exclusive strontium-/yttrium-90 beta-irradiation for primary and recurrent pterygia and to analyze the functional outcome. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between October 1974 and December 2005, 58 primary and 21 recurrent pterygia were exclusively treated with strontium-/yttrium-90 beta-irradiation with doses ranging from 3,600 to 5,500 cGy. The follow-up time was 46.6 +/- 26.7 months, with a median of 46.5 months. RESULTS: The treatment led to a size reduction in all pterygia (p < 0.0001). Neither recurrences nor side effects were observed during therapy and follow-up in this study. Best-corrected visual acuity increased (p = 0.0064). Corneal astigmatism was reduced in recurrent pterygia (p = 0.009). CONCLUSION: Exclusive strontium-/yttrium-90 beta-irradiation of pterygia is a very efficient and well-tolerated treatment, with remarkable aesthetic and rehabilitative results in comparison to conventional treatments, especially for recurrent lesions which have undergone prior surgical excision.

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This paper examines the characteristics of suicide bombers as reflected in the Israeli press during the Second Intifada in Israel. The analysis aims to determine whether there were significant differences in the characteristics of suicide bombers with religious motives versus those with nationalist motives. The findings reveal that gender, education level, and organizational affiliation correlated significantly with motives for carrying out suicide attacks. Most of the suicide bombers with religious motives were men with elementary education. In addition, the results show that most of the suicide bombers who were affiliated with the Hamas organization acted out of religious motives. No significant differences were found between suicide bombers with religious and those with nationalist motives with regard to age, marital status, and prior activity in terrorist organizations.

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We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.

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An experiment was conducted using 95 Continental crossbred steers. The cattle were sorted by ultrasound 160 days before slaughter into a low backfat group (Low BF) and a higher backfat group (High BF). Half of the Low BF and half of the High BF were implanted whereas the other halves were not. Data from the experiment were used in two hypothetical markets. One market was a high yield beef program (HY) that did not allow the use of implants. The second market was a commodity beef program (CM) that allowed the use of implants. The cattle were priced as an unsorted group (ALL) and two sorted groups (Low BF and High BF) within the HY (non-implanted) and CM (implanted) markets. The CM program had a base price of $1.05/lb hot carcass weight (HCW) with a $0.15/lb HCW discount for quality grade (QG) Select and a $0.20/lb HCW discount for yield grade (YG) 4. The HY program used a base price of $1.07/lb HCW with premiums ($/lb HCW) paid for YG £ .9 (.15), 1.0 - 1.4 (.10), and 1.5 - 1.9 (.03). The carcasses were discounted ($/lb HCW) for YG 2.5 - 2.9 (.03), 3.0 - 3.9 (.15), and ³ 4.0 (.35). This data set provides good evidence that the end point at which to sell a group of cattle depends on the particular market. Sorting had an economic advantage over ALL in the HY Low BF and the CM High BF groups. The HY High BF cattle should have been sold sooner due to the discounts recieved for increased YG. The increased YG was directly affected by an increase in BF. Furthermore, the CM Low BF group should have been fed longer to increase the number of carcasses grading Choice.

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Exposure to urinary catheters is considered the most important risk factor for healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (UTI) and is associated with significant morbidity and substantial extra-costs. In this study, we assessed the impact of urinary catheterisation (UC) on symptomatic healthcare-associated UTI among hospitalized patients.

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Information theory-based metric such as mutual information (MI) is widely used as similarity measurement for multimodal registration. Nevertheless, this metric may lead to matching ambiguity for non-rigid registration. Moreover, maximization of MI alone does not necessarily produce an optimal solution. In this paper, we propose a segmentation-assisted similarity metric based on point-wise mutual information (PMI). This similarity metric, termed SPMI, enhances the registration accuracy by considering tissue classification probabilities as prior information, which is generated from an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Diffeomorphic demons is then adopted as the registration model and is optimized in a hierarchical framework (H-SPMI) based on different levels of anatomical structure as prior knowledge. The proposed method is evaluated using Brainweb synthetic data and clinical fMRI images. Both qualitative and quantitative assessment were performed as well as a sensitivity analysis to the segmentation error. Compared to the pure intensity-based approaches which only maximize mutual information, we show that the proposed algorithm provides significantly better accuracy on both synthetic and clinical data.

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A microbiopsy system for fast excision and transfer of biological specimens from donor to high-pressure freezer was developed. With a modified, commercially available, Promag 1.2 biopsy gun, tissue samples can be excised with a size small enough (0.6 mm x 1.2 mm x 0.3 mm) to be easily transferred into a newly designed specimen platelet. A self-made transfer unit allows fast transfer of the specimen from the needle into the specimen platelet. The platelet is then fixed in a commercially available specimen holder of a high-pressure freezing machine (EM PACT, Leica Microsystems, Vienna, Austria) and frozen therein. The time required by a well-instructed (but not experienced) person to execute all steps is in the range of half a minute. This period is considered short enough to maintain the excised tissue pieces close to their native state. We show that a range of animal tissues (liver, brain, kidney and muscle) are well preserved. To prove the quality of freezing achieved with the system, we show vitrified ivy leaves high-pressure frozen in the new specimen platelet.

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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the costs and outcomes of rescreening for group B streptococci (GBS) compared to universal treatment of term women with history of GBS colonization in a previous pregnancy. STUDY DESIGN: A decision analysis model was used to compare costs and outcomes. Total cost included the costs of screening, intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP), treatment for maternal anaphylaxis and death, evaluation of well infants whose mothers received IAP, and total costs for treatment of term neonatal early onset GBS sepsis. RESULTS: When compared to screening and treating, universal treatment results in more women treated per GBS case prevented (155 versus 67) and prevents more cases of early onset GBS (1732 versus 1700) and neonatal deaths (52 versus 51) at a lower cost per case prevented ($8,805 versus $12,710). CONCLUSION: Universal treatment of term pregnancies with a history of previous GBS colonization is more cost-effective than the strategy of screening and treating based on positive culture results.

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Statistical physicists assume a probability distribution over micro-states to explain thermodynamic behavior. The question of this paper is whether these probabilities are part of a best system and can thus be interpreted as Humean chances. I consider two strategies, viz. a globalist as suggested by Loewer, and a localist as advocated by Frigg and Hoefer. Both strategies fail because the system they are part of have rivals that are roughly equally good, while ontic probabilities should be part of a clearly winning system. I conclude with the diagnosis that well-defined micro-probabilities under-estimate the robust character of explanations in statistical physics.