"Creeping" civil war in the North Caucasus. OSW Commentary No. 50, 2011-03-15

Over the last year, the situation in Russia’s North Caucasus has become further destabilised. Attacks and armed clashes happen daily, and destabilisation is spreading to an increasingly large area. The extent of violence in the region is so great that it can already be stated that a de facto civil war is taking place, the warring parties being the Islamic armed underground movement which operates under the banner of the so-called Emirate of the North Caucasus, and the secular governments of the individual republics, who are supported by local and federal branches of the Russian Federation’s Interior Ministry and Federal Security Service. Moscow has no idea how to successfully tackle the Caucasus rebellion. Force has proved to be costly and unproductive, while the attempts made since early 2010 to integrate the region with the rest of Russia by implementing development programmes have not brought the desired results, because of widespread corruption and faint interest from businessmen who are afraid to invest in such an unsafe region. A growing problem for Moscow, particularly for the prestige of the state, is attacks by militants on areas near Sochi, where the 2014 Winter Olympics is to take place. It must be assumed that over the next 3 years before the Olympics, Moscow’s priority in the region will be to ensure the safety of Olympic preparations, and then the games themselves. It cannot be ruled out that the North Caucasus Federal District with its ‘troubled republics’ will be surrounded by a kind of cordon sanitaire (Sochi is situated in the neighbouring Southern Federal District). This could in turn strengthen these republics’ isolation, maintain the state of permanent instability, and postpone the prospects of solving the region’s acute economic and social problems.

Estonia in the eurozone - a strategic success. OSW Commentary No. 53, 2011-06-20

The adoption of the euro in January 2011 topped off Estonia’s integration policy. In the opinion of Estonian politicians, this country has never been so secure and stable in its history. Tallinn sees the introduction of the euro primarily in the political context as an entrenchment of the Estonian presence in Europe. The process of establishing increasingly close relations with Western European countries, which the country has consistently implemented since it restored independence in 1991, has been aimed at severing itself its Soviet past and at a gradual reduction of the gap existing between Estonia and the best-developed European economies. The Estonian government also prioritises the enhancement of co-operation as part of the EU and NATO as well as its principled fulfilment of the country’s undertakings. It sees these as important elements for building the country’s international prestige. The meeting of the Maastricht criteria at the time of an economic slump and the adoption of the euro during the eurozone crisis proved the determination and efficiency of the government in Tallinn. Its success has been based on strong support from the Estonian public for the pro-European (integrationist) policy of Estonia: according to public opinion polls, approximately 80% of the country’s residents declare their satisfaction with EU membership, while support for the euro ranges between 50% and 60%. Since Estonia joined the OECD in 2010 and adopted the euro at the beginning of 2011, it has become the leader of integration processes among the Baltic states. The introduction of the euro has reinforced Estonia’s international image and made it more attractive to foreign investors. The positive example of this country may be used as a strong argument by the governments in Lithuania and Latvia when they take action to meet the Maastricht criteria. Vilnius and Riga claim they want to adopt the euro in 2014. The improving economic situation in the Baltic states will contribute to the achievement of this goal, while an excessively high inflation rate, as in 2007, may be the main impediment1.

Russia's development assistance. OSW Commentary No. 62, 2011-10-10

In its attempts to catch up with the global trend, Russia began granting development assistance in 2004. From the onset of Russia’s commitment, the aid delivered has increased fivefold and reached approximately US$ 500 million in 2010. Russian aid, albeit distributed nearly exclusively via international organisations, has been granted above all to members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). In recent months work on the establishment of the Russian development assistance system has been accelerated (a national strategy is being prepared and a specialised agency is to be established). This move proves that the Kremlin attaches weight to activity in this area which is an element of soft power politics, the foundations of which Moscow is currently attempting to lay. In its commitment to development co-operation Russia has sought on the one hand to increase its prestige on the international stage and on the other hand to gain another instrument of exerting its ascendancy in the CIS. The scale of aid and the way of delivering it have not made Russia an important global actor. Over the last five years Russia increased the funding allocated to development assistance several times, however, compared to other donors its aid does not appear impressive. The resources dedicated to this end stand at a mere 0.035% of Russian GDP. Unlike other non-Western superpowers such as China or India, Russia is not a competitor for Western countries in this area on the global scale. Nevertheless, within the CIS, Russia’s aid is building the country’s position as a donor. The long-term results of this aid are however being counteracted by the fact that Russia is expecting measurable and direct political and economic benefits in return. Although this policy helps Moscow achieve its objectives in the CIS, it does not develop Russian potential in the sphere of soft power or create a positive image of the country.

Turkey: has the AKP ended its winning streak? OSW Commentary No. 117, 2013-10-07

Since the conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) took power in Turkey in 2002, it has enjoyed a constant winning streak: it won each election (with a support level of 49.83% in 2011), subordinated the army (which had de facto stood above the civilian government) and was reforming the country. The situation in the country was stable (especially when compared to the crises and restlessness in the 1990s), the economy was booming, Turkey’s position in regional politics was strengthening, and Ankara’s significance on the international arena was growing. This encouraged the ruling class to make long-term plans, leading up to the hundredth anniversary of the republic in 2023. In the coming decade, Turkey governed by the AKP was to become one of the global economic and political centres, a full member of the EU and at the same time a political and economic leader in the Middle East. However, the negative trends in the situation both domestically (mass public protests, the deadlocked Kurdish issue and the unsuccessful attempt to amend the constitution) and abroad (the war in Syria and the coup in Egypt) seen over the past few months have laid bare the limitations of the AKP’s rule and have affected the government’s democratic mandate, prestige and credibility on the international arena, as well as peace and order and domestic security. When compared to the beginning of 2013, the way the situation will develop in Turkey is at this moment definitely less predictable; and the possible scenarios include both relative peace (however, with socio-political tension present in the background) and the threat of destabilisation. Therefore, although the AKP will still remain the sole major political force, this party will have to face challenges which will decide not only its political future but also the directions the country will be developing in. However, a comprehensive solution of the accumulated problems and a simple return to the status quo ante, convenient to the government, seem unlikely in the foreseeable future.

From the initial interest in ‘Why do people often communicate in very "strange" ways on Social Media?’ to a research project on CMC

This presentation is about the inside story of the PhD project El malagueño real, mental y virtual. Configuración de los significados sociales de una variedad urbana in Hispanic Linguistics. That is, the production and perception of the Spanish spoken in the city of Malaga and used on the social network sites Facebook and Tuenti by users from Malaga is analysed. Actually, the southern Spanish variety in question is quite distinct from the national standard in terms of its phonetic features, its prestige, and the attitudes to it. Thus, the project started with the initial interest in «Why do people often communicate in very “strange” ways on social media» which then slightly changed to the final research interest in «What do the different non-standard variants mean in virtual (and real) malagueño?». This long – sometimes hazardous, yet mostly fun – process is exposed in more detail by looking at the research questions, the methods and results. Lastly, the presentation concludes with some lessons learnt and an outlook on possibilities and necessities for further investigation.

A potential case of attitude change: The Spanish spoken in the city of Malaga and used on social network sites

The Spanish spoken in the city of Malaga, as Andalusian Spanish in general, was in the past often times considered an incorrect, low prestige variety of Spanish which was strongly associated with the poor, rural, backward South of Spain. This southern Spanish variety is easily recognised because of its innovative phonetic features that diverge from the national standard, even though in the past years in the case of some features a convergence to the standard could be observed. Despite its low prestige the local variety of Spanish is quite often used on social network sites, where it is considered as urban, fashion and cool. Thus, this paper aims at analysing whether the Spanish used in the city of Malaga is undergoing an attitude change. The study draws on naturally occurring speech, data extracted from Facebook and a series of questionnaires about the salience, attitude and perception of the local variety of Spanish. The influence of the social factors age and gender is analysed, since they are both known to play a crucial role in many instances of language change. The first is of special interest, as during the Franco dictatorship dialect use was not accepted in schools and in the media. Results show that, on the one hand, people from Malaga hold a more positive attitude towards non-standard features used on social network sites than in spoken language. On the other hand, young female users employ most non-standard features online and unsurprisingly have an extremely positive attitude towards this use. However, in spoken Spanish the use and attitude of some features is led by men and speakers educated during the Franco dictatorship, while other features, such as elision of intervocalic /d/, elision of final /ɾ/, /l/ and /d/ and ceceo, are predominantly employed by and younger speakers and women. These features are considered as salient in the local variety and work as local identity markers.

Visibilidad de las revistas latinoamericanas de Bibliotecología y Ciencia de la información a través de Google Scholar

Las revistas académico-científicas son uno de los principales canales de comunicación y difusión de los resultados de investigación. Sin embargo no todas tienen el mismo prestigio y grado de influencia en la comunidad científica. De su calidad y visibilidad dependen, en gran medida, las posibilidades de que un trabajo sea conocido, leído y citado. Esta investigación se propone determinar la visibilidad en Google Scholar de un conjunto de revistas latinoamericanas de Bibliotecología y Ciencia de la Información, y clasificarlas según su grado de visibilidad. Utilizando la aplicación Publish or Perish para recuperar las citas de las revistas se calcularon indicadores basados en la citación. Se combinaron técnicas de análisis multivariado de datos para realizar agrupamientos de revistas según su grado de visibilidad, y se elaboraron representaciones gráficas que facilitan la interpretación de los resultados y la identificación de los grupos de revistas con alta, media y baja visibilidad

El nuevo carácter de la dependencia intelectual

La cuestión de la "dependencia intelectual" es una de las preocupaciones más antiguas y sistemáticas del pensamiento latinoamericano. En este trabajo observamos cuáles han sido los cambios recientes en las formas de producción intelectual y su circulación que atraviesan los espacios nacionales, segmentando los procesos de consagración. Argumentamos que la colonialidad intelectual no describe la actual situación de nuestros campos académicos, más bien caracterizados por la convivencia conflictiva de la autonomía y la heteronomía. La dependencia académica, sin embargo, existe, pero es necesario observarla y analizarla como "situación concreta" llevando a fondo el enfoque relacional de la tradición histórico-estructural latinoamericana. En esta línea, primero analizamos el itinerario latinoamericano del debate sobre la dependencia intelectual, para luego proponer una definición operativa de dependencia académica. Finalmente, desarrollamos nuestra propuesta analítica para observar la producción de conocimientos en la periferia a partir de la articulación del concepto de "campo" y de "circuito".

Visibilidad de las revistas latinoamericanas de Bibliotecología y Ciencia de la información a través de Google Scholar

Las revistas académico-científicas son uno de los principales canales de comunicación y difusión de los resultados de investigación. Sin embargo no todas tienen el mismo prestigio y grado de influencia en la comunidad científica. De su calidad y visibilidad dependen, en gran medida, las posibilidades de que un trabajo sea conocido, leído y citado. Esta investigación se propone determinar la visibilidad en Google Scholar de un conjunto de revistas latinoamericanas de Bibliotecología y Ciencia de la Información, y clasificarlas según su grado de visibilidad. Utilizando la aplicación Publish or Perish para recuperar las citas de las revistas se calcularon indicadores basados en la citación. Se combinaron técnicas de análisis multivariado de datos para realizar agrupamientos de revistas según su grado de visibilidad, y se elaboraron representaciones gráficas que facilitan la interpretación de los resultados y la identificación de los grupos de revistas con alta, media y baja visibilidad

Corporate sponsorship of a cause: the role of identification in purchase intent

Nonprofit organizations (NPOs) have attracted significant levels of support from corporate sponsors over the past decade. Despite this significant and continuing interest, very little is known about how consumers perceive and respond to corporate sponsors of NPOs. Drawing on social identity theory, the authors propose that willingness to purchase sponsoring firms' products be related to consumers' identification with an NPO. Possible antecedents of identification with an NPO are also modeled, including the prestige of an NPO, consumers' affiliation with an NPO, and their motivation to support a cause. As predicted, the results find a positive relationship between consumers' identification with an NPO and their intentions to purchase sponsors' products. The results also suggest an important role for identification with an NPO in mediating the relationships between the antecedents studied here and consumers' purchase intentions. Finally, the moderating effects of biodata (life experiences) on several modeled relationships are examined. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of the association between socioeconomic position and cardiovascular disease risk factors in three age cohorts of Australian women: findings from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

Objectives To assess the associations between three measurements of socioeconomic position (SEP) - education, occupation and ability to cope on available income - and cardiovascular risk factors in three age cohorts of Australian women. Methods Cross-sectional analysis of three cohorts of Australian women aged 18-23, 45-50 and 70-75 years. Results In general, for all exposures and in all three cohorts, the odds of each adverse risk factor (smoking, obesity and physical inactivity) were lower in the most advantaged compared with the least advantaged. Within each of the three cohorts, the effects of each measurement of SEP on the outcomes were similar. There were, however, some notable between-cohort differences. The most marked differences were those with smoking. For women aged 70-75 (older), those with the highest educational attainment were more likely to have ever smoked than those with the lowest level of attainment. However, for the other two cohorts, this association was reversed, with a stronger association between low levels of education and ever smoking among those aged 18-23 (younger) than those aged 45-50 (mid-age). Similarly, for older women, those in the most skilled occupational classes were most likely to have ever smoked, with opposite findings for mid-age women. Education was also differently associated with physical inactivity across the three cohorts. Older women who were most educated were least likely to be physically inactive, whereas among the younger and mid-age cohorts there was little or no effect of education on physical inactivity. Conclusion These findings demonstrate the dynamic nature of the association between SEP and some health outcomes. Our findings do not appear to confirm previous suggestions that prestige-based measurements of SEP are more strongly associated with health-related behaviours than measurements that reflect material and psychosocial resources.

Characteristics and benefits of professional work - Assessment of their importance over a 30-year career

The Professions in Australia Study is the first longitudinal investigation of the professions in Australia; it spans 33 years. Self-administered questionnaires were distributed on at least eight occasions between 1965 and 1998 to cohorts of students and later practitioners from the professions of engineering, law and medicine. The longitudinal design of this study has allowed for an investigation of individual change over time of three archetypal characteristics of the professions, service, knowledge and autonomy and two of the benefits of professional work, financial rewards and prestige. A cumulative logit random effects model was used to statistically assess changes in the ordinal response scores for measuring importance of the characteristics and benefits through stages of the career path. Individuals were also classified by average trends in response scores over time and hence professions are described through their members' tendency to follow a particular path in attitudes either of change or constancy, in relation to the importance of the five elements (characteristics and benefits). Comparisons in trends are also made between the three professions.

A profissão de pastor presbiteriano na cidade de São Paulo

A pesquisa realizada entre pastores pertencentes à Igreja Presbiteriana do Brasil (IPB) na cidade de São Paulo mostra que o pastor presbiteriano perdeu o privilegiado status de que gozava até o final da primeira metade do século XX. Longe se vão os dias em que o pastor era um profissional cuja ocupação era respeitada e valorizada e a carreira pastoral era vista como um caminho seguro para a ascensão social de muitos jovens, especialmente os oriundos de cidades pequenas e do mundo rural. Principalmente após os anos 50, mudanças de várias ordens ocorreram, alterando a antiga situação. O processo de secula rização e a conseqüente desvalorização das instituições religiosas tradicionais afetaram diretamente o pastor presbiteriano. Desde então, ganhou força a indagação: Para que serve o pastor? Por sua vez, o campo religioso brasileiro, particularmente nos últimos 25 anos do século XX, assistiu à irrupção de novos movimentos religiosos, aumentando então a competitividade. Surgiram, por exemplo, movimentos e igrejas neopentecostais lideradas por um novo tipo de pastor, que age conforme outros scripts, assumindo papéis mais adequados às regras de uma sociedade midiática. Nesse novo contexto, o pastor presbiteriano reagiu com perplexidade e foi buscar formas de recuperar o prestígio perdido. Um dos caminhos encontrados foi a profissionalização do papel de pastor, que assim se tornou um especialista em assistência social, ensino ou aconselhamento, estratégia aliás bastante valorizada na sociedade contemporânea. Entretanto, teológica e ideologicamente, esse especialista religioso continua se legitimando como um pastor ortodoxo e conservador, já que esse é o papel a ele atribuído na organização religiosa à qual pertence, a condição sine qua non para que ele siga desenvolvendo a sua carreira como pastor da IPB.

Religião, redes sociais e capital social no Município de Rio Grande da Serra na Região do Grande ABC Paulista. Estudo das trocas materiais e simbólicas em contexto de periferia urbana

O município de Rio Grande da Serra está situado em uma região Grande ABC paulista reconhecida nacionalmente por seu desenvolvimento econômico e industrial e pelas lutas políticas e sindicais. Paradoxalmente, se configura, social e territorialmente falando, por uma região de periferia urbana. Resultado da forma como a urbanização, na sociedade moderna, conforma o espaço em regiões centrais e periféricas. Localizado no caminho que ligava Santos à Mogi das Cruzes (século XIX) povoado de Geribatiba decorrente das transformações urbanas ocorridas em toda a região, conquistaria, nos anos 1960, sua autonomia político-administrativa. Nas décadas seguintes testemunhou intenso crescimento populacional, resultado do processo migratório, principalmente de mineiros e nordestinos que tinham as cidades, e indústrias, de São Paulo e Grande ABC como destino. Esse deslocamento de pessoas, e as redes formadas em seu em torno, contribuiu para o desenvolvimento de seu campo religioso. Atualmente, com uma população, em torno, de 46 mil habitantes, possui aproximadamente 180 locais de cerimônias religiosas. Nesse contexto, a tese analisa a inserção regional socioeconômica e religiosa de Rio Grande da Serra, a partir de dados comparativos com os demais municípios, e discute como o regionalismo tem contribuído para seu desenvolvimento econômico. Realiza a caracterização das periferias urbanas, discutindo aspectos que lhes são inerentes, como segregação e vulnerabilidade social. Nesse sentido, a investigação possibilitou a identificação do perfil socioeconômico (renda e escolaridade) dos participantes dos grupos religiosos (católicos, evangélicos, kardecistas e umbandistas), permitindo, também, identificar desigualdades sociais no interior de seu território, constatando que determinados bairros são mais vulneráveis do que outros. Considerando que esse estudo examina a capacidade das redes sociais e religiosas, de aumentar o capital social de seus participantes, foi realizado o mapeamento e etnografia das diversas práticas associativas, mais ou menos formais e estruturadas, de forma a analisar os elementos materiais e simbólicos por elas produzidos. Constatou-se, apoiado na aplicação de questionários, entrevistas e observação participativa, que, a partir do habitus religioso de cada grupo, as redes possibilitam no âmbito econômico questões como emprego e renda ou auxílio em necessidades básicas de sobrevivência, através de campanhas e trabalhos sociais. No âmbito simbólico, as redes propiciam questões importantes à existência humana, como a crença na salvação ou evolução da alma, socialização, autoestima, prestígio ou ainda a expectativa de cura ou tratamento de dependência química. Pôde-se aferir que, a despeito das diferentes formas como cada grupo, e seus participantes, se apropriam do capital social, as redes sociais e religiosas, no município, funcionam como redes de proteção, especialmente à população em situação alta de vulnerabilidade social.

O CONSUMISMO E A DIMENSÃO ESPIRITUAL DAS MARCAS: UMA ANÁLISE CRÍTICA

Esta tese objetiva comprovar que, na sociedade de consumo, indivíduos consumistas transcendem sua relação funcional com as mercadorias, buscando nas marcas de prestígio uma dimensão espiritual, que substitui ou complementa as experiências religiosas tradicionais, e que se revela fetichizada. O consumismo é superlativo de compras, posses e uso, uma dependência de bens não essenciais (supérfluos) para atender aos desejos sem fim. É impossível satisfazer a desejos sem fim: daí a expressão meta transcendental do consumo, posicionada além do alcance e da capacidade de atingi-la. A dimensão transcendente do consumo, por meio do simbolismo das mercadorias potencializado pelas marcas de prestígio, propicia encantamento e sentido ao indivíduo, e se presta a preencher o espaço outrora ocupado pela família, Igreja e comunidade. O sujeito busca, na mercadoria fetichizada pela marca, satisfazer seu desejo mimético, e/ou compensar valores frágeis ou ausentes, o que é reforçado pela propaganda. O sentido último da vida dos indivíduos materialistas produz efeitos imediatos que são positivos para eles e para a economia, mas potencialmente negativos mais à frente para o planeta, para sociedade e para os indivíduos.