Modelação espacial de acidentes rodoviários na cidade de Lisboa

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações

Regional change in the Algarve: A Geographic Information System approach

Thesis submitted to the Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação da Universidade Nova de Lisboa in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Information Management – Geographic Information Systems

Strategic Noise Mapping with GIS for the Universitat Jaume I Smart Campus: best methodology practices

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Politicization of non-political events

Spatial analysis and social network analysis typically take into consideration social processes in specific contexts of geographical or network space. The research in political science increasingly strives to model heterogeneity and spatial dependence. To better understand and geographically model the relationship between “non-political” events, streaming data from social networks, and political climate was the primary objective of the current study. Geographic information systems (GIS) are useful tools in the organization and analysis of streaming data from social networks. In this study, geographical and statistical analysis were combined in order to define the temporal and spatial nature of the data eminating from the popular social network Twitter during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The study spans the entire globe because Twitter’s geotagging function, the fundamental data that makes this study possible, is not limited to a geographic area. By examining the public reactions to an inherenlty non-political event, this study serves to illuminate broader questions about social behavior and spatial dependence. From a practical perspective, the analyses demonstrate how the discussion of political topics fluсtuate according to football matches. Tableau and Rapidminer, in addition to a set basic statistical methods, were applied to find patterns in the social behavior in space and time in different geographic regions. It was found some insight into the relationship between an ostensibly non-political event – the World Cup - and public opinion transmitted by social media. The methodology could serve as a prototype for future studies and guide policy makers in governmental and non-governmental organizations in gauging the public opinion in certain geographic locations.

Contributos para a análise espacial em sistemas de informação geográfica da vulnerabilidade socio-territorial no município de Humpata (Angola)

A pesquisa tem como objectivo contribuir para a discussão do conceito de vulnerabilidade socio-territorial em países em desenvolvimento e dar contributos de análise espacial para a construção de um modelo geográfico de vulnerabilidade socio-territorial, tendo como estudo caso o município de Humpata-Angola. A metodologia recorreu a vários instrumentos, nomeadamente organização bibliográfica e documental, discussão do conceito de vulnerabilidade socio-territorial e outros complementares, recolha de informação diversa, através de levantamentos urbanísticos, realização de inquéritos aos chefes de famílias (usando indicadores de domínios social, económico e territorial) e de entrevistas aos governantes ou representantes da Administração Municipal. Foram tomadas as coordenadas dos equipamentos sociais (Saúde e Educação) e todos os dados recolhidos inseridos numa Geodatabase e, com recurso aos Sistemas de Informação Geográfica (análise espacial), foi possível a construção de um modelo de vulnerabilidade socio-territorial para o município de Humpata. O modelo representa um contributo para o futuro ordenamento do município, permitindo uma melhor visão geográfica das áreas mais carenciadas e das áreas melhor equipadas, constituindo um instrumento de apoio a tomada de decisão em políticas públicas, procurando assegurar em simultâneo melhor distribuição dos recursos e beneficiação das condições de vida das comunidades.

Profile of the Trypanosoma cruzi vector infestation in Jaboticatubas, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Introduction This work aimed to analyze the triatomine infestation scenario in Jaboticatubas after 30 years of the uninterrupted actions of the Program of Chagas Disease Control. Methods From 2007 to 2010, household unit infestation was researched, and an exploratory analysis of the localities infested with Panstrongylus megistus was performed. Results In total, 613 triatomines were captured in 78 households, the majority of which were Panstrongylus megistus and were captured mainly in chicken houses, but they were also found to be colonizing human houses. Conclusions The epidemiological importance of Panstrongylus megistus was confirmed in Jaboticatubas, and capability to colonize indoors has been demonstrated, as has its proximity to humans. Its distribution is aggregated in the northern and in central-eastern regions of the municipality.

Pulmonary tuberculosis in São Luis, State of Maranhão, Brazil: space and space-time risk clusters for death (2008-2012)

INTRODUCTION: The objective was to identify space and space-time risk clusters for the occurrence of deaths in a priority city for the control of tuberculosis (TB) in the Brazilian Northeast. METHODS: Ecological research was undertaken in the City of São Luis/Maranhão. Cases were considered that resulted in deaths in the population living in the urban region of the city with pulmonary TB as the basic cause, between 2008 and 2012. To detect space and space-time clusters of deaths due to pulmonary TB in the census sectors, the spatial analysis scan technique was used. RESULTS: In total, 221 deaths by TB occurred, 193 of which were due to pulmonary TB. Approximately 95% of the cases (n=183) were geocoded. Two significant spatial clusters were identified, the first of which showed a mortality rate of 5.8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year and a high relative risk of 3.87. The second spatial cluster showed a mortality rate of 0.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year and a low relative risk of 0.10. A significant cluster was observed in the space-time analysis between 11/01/2008 and 04/30/2011, with a mortality rate of 8.10 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year and a high relative risk (3.0). CONCLUSIONS: The knowledge of priority sites for the occurrence of deaths can support public management to reduce inequities in the access to health services and permit an optimization of the resources and teams in the control of pulmonary TB, providing support for specific strategies focused on the most vulnerable populations.

Occurrence of Lutzomyia longipalpis andhuman and canine cases of visceral leishmaniasis and evaluation of their expansion in the Northwest region of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract: INTRODUCTION This paper aims to describe the dispersion of Lutzomyia longipalpis and the autochthonous occurrence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Northwest region of the State of São Paulo between 2007 and 2013 and to analyze their expansion. METHODS Information about the vector and associated cases was described using maps. The incidence, mortality, and lethality of human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) were calculated. In municipalities in which more than one HVL case occurred, incidences were calculated according to census sector, and spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were identified. RESULTS The first case of HVL was reported in the municipality of Jales in 2007. By 2013, the vector and the disease had expanded from west to east, with the vector being detected in 29 municipalities. A total of 11 municipalities had cases of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL), and six had cases of HVL. Vector expansion occurred by vicinity with previously infested municipalities, and the expansion of VL was related to the major highways and the capital municipalities of the micro-regions in the study area. The highest incidence of HVL occurred in children between 0-4 years old, and the highest mortality and lethality occurred among persons aged 60 and older. The occurrence of HLV was more intense in the peripheral areas of municipalities with the disease. CONCLUSIONS The findings of this study may be useful for improving VL surveillance and control activities by slowing VL expansion and/or mitigating VL effects when they occur.

Geographic weighted regression: applicability to epidemiological studies of leprosy

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Geographic information systems (GIS) enable public health data to be analyzed in terms of geographical variability and the relationship between risk factors and diseases. This study discusses the application of the geographic weighted regression (GWR) model to health data to improve the understanding of spatially varying social and clinical factors that potentially impact leprosy prevalence. METHODS: This ecological study used data from leprosy case records from 1998-2006, aggregated by neighborhood in the Duque de Caxias municipality in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In the GWR model, the associations between the log of the leprosy detection rate and social and clinical factors were analyzed. RESULTS: Maps of the estimated coefficients by neighborhood confirmed the heterogeneous spatial relationships between the leprosy detection rates and the predictors. The proportion of households with piped water was associated with higher detection rates, mainly in the northeast of the municipality. Indeterminate forms were strongly associated with higher detections rates in the south, where access to health services was more established. CONCLUSIONS: GWR proved a useful tool for epidemiological analysis of leprosy in a local area, such as Duque de Caxias. Epidemiological analysis using the maps of the GWR model offered the advantage of visualizing the problem in sub-regions and identifying any spatial dependence in the local study area.

Two decades of tuberculosis in a city in Northeastern Brazil: advances and challenges in time and space

Abstract: INTRODUCTION This study presents two decades of epidemiological data on tuberculosis (TB), in order to understanding the disease profile and its spatiotemporal dynamics. METHODS This descriptive study was performed in the City of Olinda/Pernambuco, Brazil, from 1991-2010, and it analyzed new patients with TB living in the city. We used the χ²-test with a p-value <0.05 to identify differences in trends. Incidence and cluster distribution were identified using spatial scan statistics. RESULTS In total, 6202 new cases were recorded during the two decades. The highest incidence occurred in 1995 (110 cases/100,000 inhabitants), and the lowest occurred in 2009 (65 cases/100,000 inhabitants) (β=-1.44; R²=0.43; p=0.0018). The highest mortality occurred in 1998 (16 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), and the lowest occurred in 2008 (5 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) (β=-0.19; R²=0.17; p=0.07). There was a male predominance (65%), and ages ranged from 20-49 years (65%). There was a substantial increase in the number of patients that were cured after treatment (60% to 67%; p<0.001) as well as those tested for HIV (1.9% to 58.5%; p<0.001). During the first decade, clusters with p-values <0.05 included 29% of the total notified cases, and in the second decade, that percentage was 12%. CONCLUSIONS We observed a decreasing trend in incidence, which was significant, and mortality rates, which was not significant. The increased number of laboratory tests performed reflects advances in surveillance, and a reduction in the proportion of cases in primary clusters suggests, among other things, that the disease is spreading across the region.

Effects of forest structure components on the occurence, group size and density of groups of bare-face tamarin (Saguinus bicolor - primates: Callitrichinae) in Central Amazonia

This study analyzed the influence of forest structural components on the occurence, size and density of groups of Bare-face Tamarin (Saguinus bicolor) - the most threatened species in the Amazon - and produced the first map of distribution of groups in large-scale spatial within the area of continuous forest. Population censuses were conducted between November 2002 and July 2003, covering 6400 hectares in the Ducke Reserve, Manaus-AM, Brazil. Groups of S. bicolor were recorded 41 times accordingly distributed in the environments: plateau (20); slopes (12); and lowlands (09). The mean group size was 4.8 indiv./group, and ranged from 2 to 11 individuals. In the sites where the groups were recorded, and in an equivalent number of sites where no tamarins were found located at least 500 m from those where they had been recorded, we placed 50 m x 50 m plots to record the following forest structural components: abundance of trees; abundance of lianas; abundance of fruiting trees and lianas; abundance of snags; abundance of logs; percentage of canopy opening; leaf litter depth; and altitude. Bare-face Tamarin more often uses areas with lower abundance of forest logs, smaller canopy opening and with higher abundance of snags, areas in the forest with smaller canopy opening present higher density of S. bicolor groups. Apparently this species does not use the forest in a random way, and may select areas for its daily activities depending on the micro-environmental heterogeneity produced by the forest structural components.

Palm community transitions along a topographic gradient from floodplain to terra firme in the eastern Amazon

Palms show clear niche segregation patterns along topographic gradients in tropical forests, with some species associated to terra firme and others to seasonally flooded areas. The aim of this study was to quantitatively describe the fine-scale spatial variation within a palm community, tracking the changes in species' abundance along environmental gradients associated with a perennial stream the eastern Amazon. The study of palm communities was based on 60 forest plots in which all adult palms were counted. We found a total of 566 palms in a community containing 11 species. Furthermore, we found a significant separation in the palm community between seasonally-flooded and terra firme forests. We found a gradient with various densities of the three most abundant palm species within the first 100 m away from the flooded area. Other species were located exclusively in the terra firme forest. The abundance of the six most common species were distributed in relation to humidity gradients from floodplains to terra firme, with palm distribution from the most flood-tolerant to the least flood-tolerant palm species as follows: Euterpe oleracea, Attalea phalerata and Socratea exorrhiza (species with floodplain affinity), Astrocaryum gynacanthum, Astrocaryum aculeatum, Attalea maripa (species with terra firme affinity)

An application of MSIASM to Chinese exosomatic energy metabolism

The methodology of Multi-Scale Integrated The methodology of Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal Metabolism (MSIASM) is applied to analyze the Chinese economy. This paper presents four tasks: (i) identifying a set of benchmarks that makes it possible to compare various characteristics of the Chinese economy with those of other country groups and the world (level) average; (ii) explaining the differences over the selected set of benchmarks, by looking at the characteristics of the various sub-sectors of the Chinese economy; (iii) understanding existing trends and future feasible future development paths for China by studying the existence of reciprocal constraints between the whole economy and its sub-sectors; and (iv) examining plausible future scenarios of development.

Different trajectories of exosomatic energy metabolism for Brazil, Chile and Venezuela: using the MSIASM approach

Economic development goes hand in hand with an increase in the consumption of natural resources. Some analysts use material flows to describe such relationship [Eurostat 2001, Weisz et al., 2006], or exergy [Ayres et al., 2003]. Instead this paper will use a characterisation of the exosomatic energy metabolism based on expected benchmark values to describe possible constraints to economic development posed by available human time and energy. The aim of the paper is to identify types of exosomatic energy metabolism of different societies to interpret its consequences for economic development. This is done with the application of the accounting methodology called Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal Metabolism (MSIASM) to the particular case of energy metabolism for the analysis of the economies of Brazil, Chile and Venezuela.

Why Catalonia will see its energy metabolism increase in the near future: an application of MuSIASEM

This paper applies the so-called Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) to the economy of the Spanish region of Catalonia. By applying Georgescu-Roegen's fund-flow model, it arrives at the conclusion that within a context of the end of cheap oil, the current development model based on the growth of low productivity sectors such as services and construction must change. The change is needed not only because of the increasing scarcity of affordable energy carriers, or because of the increasing environmental impact that the present development represents, but also because of an ageing population that demands labour productivity gains. This will imply industry requiring more energy consumption per worker in order to increase its productivity, and therefore its competitiveness. Thus, we conclude that energy intensity, and exosomatic energy metabolism of Catalonia will increase dramatically in the near future unless major conservation efforts are implemented in both the household and transport sectors.