Hyvinvointivaltion optimaalisen köyhyyspolitiikan määrittelyä

The purpose of this research is to identify the optimal poverty policy for a welfare state. Poverty is defined by income. Policies for reducing poverty are considered primary, and those for reducing inequality secondary. Poverty is seen as a function of the income transfer system within a welfare state. This research presents a method for optimising this function for the purposes of reducing poverty. It is also implemented in the representative population sample within the Income Distribution Data. SOMA simulation model is used. The iterative simulation process is continued until a level of poverty is reached at which improvements can no longer be made. Expenditures and taxes are kept in balance during the process. The result consists of two programmes. The first programme (social assistance programme) was formulated using five social assistance parameters, all of which dealt with the norms of social assistance for adults (€/month). In the second programme (basic benefits programme), in which social assistance was frozen at the legislative level of 2003, the parameter with the strongest poverty reduction effect turned out to be one of the basic unemployment allowances. This was followed by the norm of the national pension for a single person, two parameters related to housing allowance, and the norm for financial aid for students of higher education institutions. The most effective financing parameter measured by gini-coefficient in all programmes was the percent of capital taxation. Furthermore, these programmes can also be examined in relation to their costs. The social assistance programme is significantly cheaper than the basic benefits programme, and therefore with regard to poverty, the social assistance programme is more cost effective than the basic benefits programme. Therefore, public demand for raising the level of basic benefits does not seem to correspond to the most cost effective poverty policy. Raising basic benefits has most effect on reducing poverty within the group of people whose basic benefits are raised. Raising social assistance, on the other hand, seems to have a strong influence on the poverty of all population groups. The most significant outcome of this research is the development of a method through which a welfare state’s income transfer-based safety net, which has severely deteriorated in recent decades, might be mended. The only way of doing so involves either social assistance or some forms of basic benefits and supplementing these by modifying social assistance.

Price Inflation, Unemployment and Devaluations: The Finnish Experience of the 1990s

In this paper I provide some empirical answers to important questions such as the determinants of price inflation and the role of inflation polices. The results indicate that monetary policy is surprisingly impotent as a device for controlling inflation and there is little support that it influences the real variables. The low inflation after the Finnish devaluations in the beginning of 90s is foremost due to a previous imbalance in the labor markets and depressed aggregate demand.

Real-time multipurpose reservoir operation: a case study / Exploitation en temps reacuteel d'un reservoir agrave buts multiples: eacutetude d'un cas

A real-time operational methodology has been developed for multipurpose reservoir operation for irrigation and hydropower generation with application to the Bhadra reservoir system in the state of Karnataka, India. The methodology consists of three phases of computer modelling. In the first phase, the optimal release policy for a given initial storage and inflow is determined using a stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model. Streamflow forecasting using an adaptive AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model constitutes the second phase. A real-time simulation model is developed in the third phase using the forecast inflows of phase 2 and the operating policy of phase 1. A comparison of the optimal monthly real-time operation with the historical operation demonstrates the relevance, applicability and the relative advantage of the proposed methodology.

Throughput Maximization of Delay-Constrained Traffic in Wireless Energy Harvesting Sensors

A wireless Energy Harvesting Sensor (EHS) needs to send data packets arriving in its queue over a fading channel at maximum possible throughput while ensuring acceptable packet delays. At the same time, it needs to ensure that energy neutrality is satisfied, i.e., the average energy drawn from a battery should equal the amount of energy deposited in it minus the energy lost due to the inefficiency of the battery. In this work, a framework is developed under which a system designer can optimize the performance of the EHS node using power control based on the current channel state information, when the EHS node employs a single modulation and coding scheme and the channel is Rayleigh fading. Optimal system parameters for throughput optimal, delay optimal and delay-constrained throughput optimal policies that ensure energy neutrality are derived. It is seen that a throughput optimal (maximal) policy is packet delay-unbounded and an average delay optimal (minimal) policy achieves negligibly small throughput. Finally, the influence of the harvested energy profile on the performance of the EHS is illustrated through the example of solar energy harvesting.

Transmit Power Control Policies for Energy Harvesting Sensors With Retransmissions

This paper addresses the problem of finding outage-optimal power control policies for wireless energy harvesting sensor (EHS) nodes with automatic repeat request (ARQ)-based packet transmissions. The power control policy of the EHS specifies the transmission power for each packet transmission attempt, based on all the information available at the EHS. In particular, the acknowledgement (ACK) or negative acknowledgement (NACK) messages received provide the EHS with partial information about the channel state. We solve the problem of finding an optimal power control policy by casting it as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). We study the structure of the optimal power policy in two ways. First, for the special case of binary power levels at the EHS, we show that the optimal policy for the underlying Markov decision process (MDP) when the channel state is observable is a threshold policy in the battery state. Second, we benchmark the performance of the EHS by rigorously analyzing the outage probability of a general fixed-power transmission scheme, where the EHS uses a predetermined power level at each slot within the frame. Monte Carlo simulation results illustrate the performance of the POMDP approach and verify the accuracy of the analysis. They also show that the POMDP solutions can significantly outperform conventional ad hoc approaches.

Adaptive Sleep-Wake Control using Reinforcement Learning in Sensor Networks

The aim in this paper is to allocate the `sleep time' of the individual sensors in an intrusion detection application so that the energy consumption from the sensors is reduced, while keeping the tracking error to a minimum. We propose two novel reinforcement learning (RL) based algorithms that attempt to minimize a certain long-run average cost objective. Both our algorithms incorporate feature-based representations to handle the curse of dimensionality associated with the underlying partially-observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Further, the feature selection scheme used in our algorithms intelligently manages the energy cost and tracking cost factors, which in turn assists the search for the optimal sleeping policy. We also extend these algorithms to a setting where the intruder's mobility model is not known by incorporating a stochastic iterative scheme for estimating the mobility model. The simulation results on a synthetic 2-d network setting are encouraging.

Efectos de la política monetaria en un modelo de precios rígidos en distintas monedas

Resumen: En un modelo dinámico, de dos países y con precios rígidos, este trabajo analiza la transmisión de la política monetaria cuando las empresas fijan sus precios en distintas monedas. Siguiendo el modelo de Betts y Devereux (2000) suponemos que las empresas pueden fijar un único precio para el mercado local y extranjero en moneda del país al cual exportan. Algunas empresas segmentan el mercado por país y otras fijan un único precio en su propia moneda o en la del país vecino. Los precios rígidos en moneda del país vecino aumentan la variabilidad del tipo de cambio y reducen los efectos positivos que la política monetaria tiene sobre el consumo y la tasa de interés real, respecto a una situación donde las empresas sólo segmentan el mercado o fijan un único precio en su propia moneda. En ausencia de segmentación de mercado, a mayor número de empresas que fijen su precio en moneda del país vecino, mayor es el efecto positivo que un shock monetario en el país extranjero tiene sobre su bienestar y el del otro, pero es menor en ambos cuando se produce en el país local.

Fiscal imbalances, inflation and sovereign default dynamics

Resumen: La cuestión central que este artículo busca responder es como la política monetaria puede afectar el comportamiento de equilibrio de primas por riesgo soberano y cesación de pagos. El artículo se basa en el modelo de “una-tasa-interés”. La deuda pública se hace riesgosa a causa de una política fiscal activa, como en Uribe (2006), reflejando la habilidad limitada de la autoridad fiscal para controlar el superávit primario. El problema de insolvencia es debido a una oleada de mala suerte (shocks negativos que afectan el superávit primario). Pero en contraste a los resultados de Uribe, a medida que aumenta el costo de la deuda soberana (que resulta de un excedente primario débil), la cesación de pagos se anticipa y es reflejada por una creciente prima de riesgo en el país y una probabilidad de cesación de pagos. La cesación de pagos se define como un incumplimiento de un acuerdo contractual y por ende la decisión es tomada por la autoridad fiscal. Mientras tanto, objetivos conflictivos entre la autoridad monetaria y fiscal juegan un rol importante en llevar a la autoridad fiscal a la cesación de pagos sobre sus pasivos. La característica de la política del gobierno necesaria para restaurar el equilibrio después de la cesación de pagos también es analizada.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Innovación y crecimiento económico: Factores que estimulan la innovación

[ES] El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el papel que desempeñan las innovaciones en la actividad económica. En este sentido, se muestra la relación que existe entre innovaciones y crecimiento económico, como objetivo esencial actual de la política económica para reducir el desempleo y aumentar el bienestar social.

The Effect of Data Revisions on the Basic New Keynesian Model

This paper proposes an extended version of the basic New Keynesian monetary (NKM) model which contemplates revision processes of output and inflation data in order to assess the importance of data revisions on the estimated monetary policy rule parameters and the transmission of policy shocks. Our empirical evidence based on a structural econometric approach suggests that although the initial announcements of output and inflation are not rational forecasts of revised output and inflation data, ignoring the presence of non well-behaved revision processes may not be a serious drawback in the analysis of monetary policy in this framework. However, the transmission of inflation-push shocks is largely affected by considering data revisions. The latter being especially true when the nominal stickiness parameter is estimated taking into account data revision processes.

An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor

Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital to drive endogenous unemployment uctuations de ned as the log di¤erence between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. We estimated such model using Bayesian econometric techniques and quarterly U.S. data. The second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate in the model give a good t to those observed in U.S. data. Our results also show that wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fl uctuations. Compared to an estimated New-Keynesian model without unemployment (Smets and Wouters, 2007): wage stickiness is higher, labor supply elasticity is lower, the slope of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve is flatter, and the importance of technology innovations on output variability increases.

Projetos de cuidado em Fisioterapia

As práticas de cuidado em fisioterapia, em muitas situações, resgatam a função do fisioterapeuta de executor de técnicas que lhe era atribuída nos primórdios da profissão. Ao exercer essa função meramente técnica, muitas vezes deixando-se substituir pelo equipamento nas suas ações, o profissional compromete o estabelecimento do vínculo terapeuta-paciente, contribuindo para o esvaziamento do encontro em saúde. Nessas situações, predomina o êxito técnico (a eficiência na realização do procedimento) sobre o sucesso prático (os benefícios trazidos para vida das pessoas). Para que o sucesso prático seja atingido, é fundamental que haja o questionamento sobre o que sonham as pessoas, profissionais e pacientes, para as suas vidas e para a saúde, quais são suas perspectivas e projetos de vida, seus projetos de felicidade. Nesse sentido, é imprescindível considerar, também, os projetos de felicidade dos profissionais da saúde enquanto sujeitos desse encontro. Afinal, é a partir deles que o profissional elabora o seu projeto de cuidado para cada paciente. Assim, esse trabalho buscou compreender os elementos que configuram a construção de projetos de cuidado em fisioterapia a partir da reflexão dos próprios fisioterapeutas. Para tanto, utilizou-se a metodologia qualitativa de pesquisa por meio de entrevistas semi-estruturadas para que fossem produzidas narrativas da história de vida do trabalho. Os discursos foram analisados integralmente e a categorização foi feita em três sub-temas: exercício profissional, relação com os pacientes e reflexões. Foi possível perceber que muitos dos arranjos de trabalho estabelecidos visam coibir o vínculo profissional-paciente, transformando-o em valor de troca e mercantilizando a relação terapêutica. Expropriada do vínculo, a prática se resume à realização de procedimentos independentes de sua finalidade, minando as possibilidades de sucesso prático. Nesse caso, não é a tecnologia que gera o afastamento e a mecanização, mas são as estratégias de mercantilização do cuidado fisioterápico. Essa situação só pode ocorrer por um processo de subordinação do profissional e seu saber, o que está fortemente associado a condições de trabalho exploratórias. Podemos dizer que a mercantilização do cuidado facilita a restrição sobre as condições de trabalho e também é fruto dela. O problema é que essa restrição é vista pelos profissionais como não definitiva, mas como um caminho para se alcançar reconhecimento na busca pelo exercício liberal da fisioterapia. A intenção desse estudo não foi traçar um plano normativo de conduta para a profissão, mas imaginamos que o equacionamento dessas questões passa necessariamente pelo reconhecimento, pelas inquietações e indignações com o problema. O que se espera, portanto, é facilitar esse processo de desconforto por meio da proximidade dessas questões trazidas pelas narrativas.

Cointegration analysis of money demand in the Euro Area

The analysis of the evolution of the M3 money aggregate is an important element in the definition and implementation of monetary policy for the ECB. A well-defined and stable long run demand function is an essential requisite for M3 to be a valid monetary tool. Therefore, this paper analyzes based in cointegration techniques the existence of a long run money demand, estimating it and testing its stability for the Euro Area and for ten of its member countries. Specifically, bearing in mind the high degree of monetary instability that the current economic crisis has created in the Euro Area, we also test whether this has had a noticeable impact in the cointegration among real money demand and its determinants. The analysis gives evidence of the existence of a long run relationship when the aggregated Euro Area and six of the ten countries are considered. However, these relationships are highly instable since the outbreak of the financial crisis, leading in some cases to even rejecting cointegration. All this suggests that the ECB’s strategy of focusing in the M3 monetary aggregates could not be a convenient approach under the current circumstances

Systematic liquidity: commonality and inter-temporal variation in the Portuguese stock market

[EN] The aim of this paper is to study systematic liquidity at the Euronext Lisbon Stock Exchange. The motivation for this research is provided by the growing interest in financial literature about stock liquidity and the implications of commonality in liquidity for asset pricing since it could represent a source of non-diversifiable risk. Namely, it is analysed whether there exist common factors that drive the variation in individual stock liquidity and the causes of the inter-temporal variation of aggregate liquidity. Monthly data for the period between January 1988 and December 2011 is used to compute some of the most used proxies for liquidity: bid-ask spreads, turnover rate, trading volume, proportion of zero returns and the illiquidity ratio. Following Chordia et al. (2000) methodology, some evidence of commonality in liquidity is found in the Portuguese stock market when the proportion of zero returns is used as a measure of liquidity. In relation to the factors that drive the inter-temporal variation of the Portuguese stock market liquidity, the results obtained within a VAR framework suggest that changes in real economy activity, monetary policy (proxied by changes in monetary aggregate M1) and stock market returns play an important role as determinants of commonality in liquidity.