Does direct democracy reduce the size of government? New evidence from historical data, 1890-2000

Using historical data for all Swiss cantons from 1890 to 2000, we estimate the causal effect of direct democracy on government spending. The main innovation in this paper is that we use fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity and instrumental variables to address the potential endogeneity of institutions. We find that the budget referendum and lower costs to launch a voter initiative are effective tools in reducing canton level spending. However, we find no evidence that the budget referendum results in more decentralized government or a larger local government. Our instrumental variable estimates suggest that a mandatory budget referendum reduces the size of canton spending between 13 and 19 percent. A 1 percent lower signature requirement for the initiative reduces canton spending by up to 2 percent.

The conquest of New México and California : An historical and personal narrative

UANL

Heterodox Inflation Stabilization in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel. A Historical Review and Some Stylized Facts

This article presents a review of the stabilization attempts in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel during the 1980’s. Earlier research is summarized and complemented with additional sources of contemporaneous information and a detailed analysis of institutional features. The examination of these episodes underscores the strong economic and empirical relationship between the governments’ fiscal policy and the rate of inflation.

Procedural Meaning Explicatures in the Development of New Subordination Strategies in Romance

The sociocultural changes that led to the genesis of Romance languages widened the gap between oral and written patterns, which display different discoursive and linguistic devices. In early documents, discoursive implicatures connecting propositions were not generally codified, so that the reader should furnish the correct interpretation according to his own perception of real facts; which can still be attested in current oral utterances. Once Romance languages had undergone several levelling processes which concluded in the first standardizations, implicatures became explicatures and were syntactically codified by means of univocal new complex conjunctions. As a consequence of the emergence of these new subordination strategies, a freer distribution of the information conveyed by the utterances is allowed. The success of complex structural patterns ran alongside of the genesis of new narrative genres and the generalization of a learned rhetoric. Both facts are a spontaneous effect of new approaches to the act of reading. Ancient texts were written to be read to a wide audience, whereas those printed by the end of the XV th century were conceived to be read quietly, in a low voice, by a private reader. The goal of this paper is twofold, since we will show that: a) The development of new complex conjunctions through the history of Romance languages accommodates to four structural patterns that range from parataxis to hypotaxis. b) This development is a reflex of the well known grammaticalization path from discourse to syntax that implies the codification of discoursive strategies (Givón 2 1979, Sperber and Wilson 1986, Carston 1988, Grice 1989, Bach 1994, Blackemore 2002, among others]

Using historical lesion volume data in the design of a new phase II clinical trial in acute stroke

Background and Purpose-Clinical research into the treatment of acute stroke is complicated, is costly, and has often been unsuccessful. Developments in imaging technology based on computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging scans offer opportunities for screening experimental therapies during phase II testing so as to deliver only the most promising interventions to phase III. We discuss the design and the appropriate sample size for phase II studies in stroke based on lesion volume. Methods-Determination of the relation between analyses of lesion volumes and of neurologic outcomes is illustrated using data from placebo trial patients from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive. The size of an effect on lesion volume that would lead to a clinically relevant treatment effect in terms of a measure, such as modified Rankin score (mRS), is found. The sample size to detect that magnitude of effect on lesion volume is then calculated. Simulation is used to evaluate different criteria for proceeding from phase II to phase III. Results-The odds ratios for mRS correspond roughly to the square root of odds ratios for lesion volume, implying that for equivalent power specifications, sample sizes based on lesion volumes should be about one fourth of those based on mRS. Relaxation of power requirements, appropriate for phase II, lead to further sample size reductions. For example, a phase III trial comparing a novel treatment with placebo with a total sample size of 1518 patients might be motivated from a phase II trial of 126 patients comparing the same 2 treatment arms. Discussion-Definitive phase III trials in stroke should aim to demonstrate significant effects of treatment on clinical outcomes. However, more direct outcomes such as lesion volume can be useful in phase II for determining whether such phase III trials should be undertaken in the first place. (Stroke. 2009;40:1347-1352.)

A new pattern for historical geography: working with enthusiast communities and public history

This paper argues for the adoption of participatory approaches in historical geography, drawing on the author's experience in working with enthusiast communities in the UK in the context of collaborative research with the Science Museum and ideas of public history and geography.

Making decisions in the absence of clear facts: a historical perspective

Recently, a claim has been made that executive decisions makers, far from being fact collectors, are actually fact users and integrators. As such, the claim continues, executive decision makers need help in understanding how to interpret facts, as well as guidance in making decisions in the absence of clear facts. This report justifies this claim against the backdrop of the modern history of decision making, from 1956 to the present. The historical excursion serves to amplify and clarify the claim, as well as to develop a theoretical framework for making decisions in the absence of clear facts. Two essential issues are identified that impact upon decision making in the absence of clear facts, as well criteria for decision making effectiveness under such circumstances. Methodological requirements and practical objectives round off the theoretical framework. The historical analysis enables the identification of one particular established methodology as claiming to meet the methodological requirements of the theoretical framework. Since the methodology has yet to be tried on information-poor situations, a further project is proposed that will test its validity.

Brazil’s 35 years-old quasi-stagnation: facts and theory

Brazil is growing around 1% per capita a year from 1981; this means for a country that is supposed to catch up, quasi-stagnation. Four historical new facts explain why growth was so low after the Real Plan: the reduction of public savings, and three facts that reduce private investments: the end of the unlimited supply of labor, a very high interest rate, and the 1990 dismantling of the mechanism that neutralized the Dutch disease, which represented a major competitive disadvantage for the manufacturing industry. New-developmental theory offers an explanation and two solutions for the problem, but does not underestimate the political economy problems involved

Systematic and historical biogeography of the Bryconidae (Ostariophysi: Characiformes) suggesting a new rearrangement of its genera and an old origin of Mesoamerican ichthyofauna

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Environmental weathering of natural and artificial stones used in historical architecture: influence of microstructure and new restoration methods

For some study cases (the Cathedral of Modena, Italy, XII-XIV century; the Ducal Palace in Mantua, Italy, XVI century; the church of San Francesco in Fano, Italy, XIV-XIX century), considered as representative of the use of natural and artificial stones in historical architecture, the complex interaction between environ-mental aggressiveness, materials’ microstructural characteristics and degradation was investigated. From the results of such analyses, it was found that materials microstructure plays a fundamental role in the actual extent to which weathering mechanisms affect natural and artificial stones. Consequently, the need of taking into account the important role of material microstructure, when evaluating the environmental aggressiveness to natural and artificial stones, was highlighted. Therefore, a possible quantification of the role of microstructure on the resistance to environmental attack was investigated. By exposing stone samples, with significantly different microstructural features, to slightly acidic aqueous solutions, simulating clean and acid rain, a good correlation between weight losses and the product of carbonate content and specific surface area (defined as the “vulnerable specific surface area”) was found. Alongside the evaluation of stone vulnerability, the development of a new consolidant for weathered carbonate stones was undertaken. The use of hydroxya-patite, formed by reacting the calcite of the stone with an aqueous solution of di-ammonium hydrogen phosphate, was found to be a promising consolidating tech-nique for carbonates stones. Indeed, significant increases in the mechanical prop-erties can be achieved after the treatment, which has the advantage of simply con-sisting in a non-hazardous aqueous solution, able to penetrate deeply into the stone (> 2 cm) and bring significant strengthening after just 2 days of reaction. Furthermore, the stone sorptivity is not eliminated after treatment, so that water and water vapor exchanges between the stone and the environment are not com-pletely blocked.

Overweight and obesity in children: known facts and new trends

The prevalence of overweight and obesity in children is increasing. A growing number of children are thus suffering from complications of obesity. Contributing factors can be found on an individual level as well as in the familial and social environment of affected children. Currently there is no single evidence-based treatment strategy available. Studies from family practice are scarce. Multimodal, long-term, easily accessible treatments as offered in family practice are promising and likely to be cost-effective. The sustainability of these changes in behavior still needs to be demonstrated.