Comparing cost uplift in infrastructure delivery methods : a case based approach

The alliance project delivery method is used for approximately one third of all Australian government infrastructure projects representing $8-$10 billion per annum. Despite its widespread use, little is known about the differences between estimated project cost and actual cost over the project lifecycle. This paper presents the findings of research into 14 Australian government alliance case studies investigating the observed cost uplift over each project’s lifecycle. I find that significant cost uplift is likely and that this uplift is greater than that afflicting traditional delivery methods. Furthermore, most of the cost uplift occurs at a different place in the project lifecycle, namely between Business Case and Contractual Commitment.

Methods to achieve net environmental gain in the course of development in Queensland

To achieve best environmental management practice in Queensland, effort needs to be extended into the private sector. A Regional Landscape Strategy compiled for any substantial new proposal must identify the most promising technique(s) (from an available tool kit of 13) by which a developer (of any type) is more likely to sustain on-site resources while assisting government deliver its future plans in any region of the State. Offsetting may prove to be one of the most effective of these tools. However, policy must address‘offset land mitigation’, whereby the necessary financial incentives are introduced. Practicable methods by which offset sites can be selected, and measurement of their consequent environmental benefit, have now been devised and tested to assist this process.

Multivariate Markov Process Models for the transmission of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus in a hospital ward

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) is a pathogen that continues to be of major concern in hospitals. We develop models and computational schemes based on observed weekly incidence data to estimate MRSA transmission parameters. We extend the deterministic model of McBryde, Pettitt, and McElwain (2007, Journal of Theoretical Biology 245, 470–481) involving an underlying population of MRSA colonized patients and health-care workers that describes, among other processes, transmission between uncolonized patients and colonized health-care workers and vice versa. We develop new bivariate and trivariate Markov models to include incidence so that estimated transmission rates can be based directly on new colonizations rather than indirectly on prevalence. Imperfect sensitivity of pathogen detection is modeled using a hidden Markov process. The advantages of our approach include (i) a discrete valued assumption for the number of colonized health-care workers, (ii) two transmission parameters can be incorporated into the likelihood, (iii) the likelihood depends on the number of new cases to improve precision of inference, (iv) individual patient records are not required, and (v) the possibility of imperfect detection of colonization is incorporated. We compare our approach with that used by McBryde et al. (2007) based on an approximation that eliminates the health-care workers from the model, uses Markov chain Monte Carlo and individual patient data. We apply these models to MRSA colonization data collected in a small intensive care unit at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, Australia.

Computed success rates of various carrier phase integer estimation solutions and their comparison with statistical success rates

The success rate of carrier phase ambiguity resolution (AR) is the probability that the ambiguities are successfully fixed to their correct integer values. In existing works, an exact success rate formula for integer bootstrapping estimator has been used as a sharp lower bound for the integer least squares (ILS) success rate. Rigorous computation of success rate for the more general ILS solutions has been considered difficult, because of complexity of the ILS ambiguity pull-in region and computational load of the integration of the multivariate probability density function. Contributions of this work are twofold. First, the pull-in region mathematically expressed as the vertices of a polyhedron is represented by a multi-dimensional grid, at which the cumulative probability can be integrated with the multivariate normal cumulative density function (mvncdf) available in Matlab. The bivariate case is studied where the pull-region is usually defined as a hexagon and the probability is easily obtained using mvncdf at all the grid points within the convex polygon. Second, the paper compares the computed integer rounding and integer bootstrapping success rates, lower and upper bounds of the ILS success rates to the actual ILS AR success rates obtained from a 24 h GPS data set for a 21 km baseline. The results demonstrate that the upper bound probability of the ILS AR probability given in the existing literatures agrees with the actual ILS success rate well, although the success rate computed with integer bootstrapping method is a quite sharp approximation to the actual ILS success rate. The results also show that variations or uncertainty of the unit–weight variance estimates from epoch to epoch will affect the computed success rates from different methods significantly, thus deserving more attentions in order to obtain useful success probability predictions.

Development of new evaluation methods for qualitative alternatives, using fuzzy calculations

Evaluation, selection and finally decision making are all among important issues, which engineers face in long run of projects. Engineers implement mathematical and nonmathematical methods to make accurate and correct decisions, whenever needed. As extensive as these methods are, effects of any selected method on outputs achieved and decisions made are still suspicious. This is more controversial and challengeable, where evaluation is made among non-quantitative alternatives. In civil engineering and construction management problems, criteria include both quantitative and qualitative ones, such as aesthetic, construction duration, building and operation costs, and environmental considerations. As the result, decision making frequently takes place among non-quantitative alternatives. It should be noted that traditional comparison methods, including clear-cut and inflexible mathematics, have always been criticized. This paper demonstrates a brief review of traditional methods of evaluating alternatives. It also offers a new decision making method using, fuzzy calculations. The main focus of this research is some engineering issues, which have flexible nature and vague borders. Suggested method provides analyzability of evaluation for decision makers. It is also capable to overcome multi criteria and multi-referees problems. In order to ease calculations, a program named DeMA is introduced.

Valuation methods for resident funded retirement villages in Australia : a practitioner's perspective

Designed for independent living, retirement villages provide either detached or semi-detached residential dwellings with car parking and small private yards. Retirement village developments usually include a mix of independent living units (ILUs) and serviced apartments (SAs) with community facilities providing a shared congregational area for village activities and socialising. Retirement Village assets differ from traditional residential assets due to their operation in accordance with statutory legislation. In Australia, each State and Territory has its own Retirement Village Act and Regulations. In essence, the village operator provides the land and buildings to the residents who pay an amount on entry for the right of occupation. On departure from the units an agreed proportion of either the original purchase price or the sale price is paid to the outgoing resident. The market value of the operator’s interest in the Retirement Village is therefore based upon the estimated future income from Deferred Management Fees and Capital Gain upon roll-over receivable by the operator in accordance with the respective residency agreements. Given the lumpiness of these payments, there is general acceptance that the most appropriate approach to valuation is through Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis. There is however inconsistency between valuers across Australia in how they undertake their DCF analysis, leading to differences in reported values and subsequent confusion among users of valuation services. To give guidance to valuers and enhance confidence from users of valuation services this paper investigates the five major elements of discounted cash flow methodology, namely cash flows, escalation factors, holding period, terminal value and discount rate. Whilst there is dissatisfaction with the financial structuring of the DMF in residency agreements, as long as there are future financial returns receivable by the Village owner/operator, then DCF will continue to be the most appropriate valuation methodology for resident funded retirement villages.

Pedometry methods for assessing free-living youth

The purpose of this review is to integrate and summarize specific measurement topics (instrument and metric choice, validity, reliability, how many and what types of days, reactivity, and data treatment) appropriate to the study of youth physical activity. Research quality pedometers are necessary to aid interpretation of steps per day collected in a range of young populations under a variety of circumstances. Steps per day is the most appropriate metric choice, but steps per minute can be used to interpret time-in-intensity in specifically delimited time periods (e.g., physical education class). Reported intraclass correlations (ICC) have ranged from .65 over 2 days (although higher values also have been reported for 2 days) to .87 over 8 days (although higher values have been reported for fewer days). Reported ICCs are lower on weekend days (.59) versus weekdays (.75) and lower over vacation days (.69) versus school days (.74). There is no objective evidence of reactivity at this time. Data treatment includes (a) identifying and addressing missing values, (b) identifying outliers and reducing data appropriately if necessary, and (c) transforming the data as required in preparation for inferential analysis. As more pedometry studies in young populations are published, these preliminary methodological recommendations should be modified and refined.

Linking the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and the Compendium of Physical Activities : methods and rationale

Background: The 2003 Bureau of Labor Statistics American Time Use Survey (ATUS) contains 438 distinct primary activity variables that can be analyzed with regard to how time is spent by Americans. The Compendium of Physical Activities is used to code physical activities derived from various surveys, logs, diaries, etc to facilitate comparison of coded intensity levels across studies. ------ ----- Methods: This paper describes the methods, challenges, and rationale for linking Compendium estimates of physical activity intensity (METs, metabolic equivalents) with all activities reported in the 2003 ATUS. ----- ----- Results: The assigned ATUS intensity levels are not intended to compute the energy costs of physical activity in individuals. Instead, they are intended to be used to identify time spent in activities broadly classified by type and intensity. This function will complement public health surveillance systems and aid in policy and health-promotion activities. For example, at least one of the future projects of this process is the descriptive epidemiology of time spent in common physical activity intensity categories. ----- ----- Conclusions: The process of metabolic coding of the ATUS by linking it with the Compendium of Physical Activities can make important contributions to our understanding of Americans’ time spent in health-related physical activity.

Strength improvement methods for back to back Litesteel beams

LiteSteel Beam (LSB) is a new cold-formed steel beam produced by OneSteel Australian Tube Mills (OATM). The new beam is effectively a channel section with two rectangular hollow flanges and a slender web, and is manufactured using patented dual electric resistance welding and automated roll-forming technologies. OATM is promoting the use of LSBs as flexural members in residential construction. When LSBs are used as back to back built-up sections, they are likely to improve their moment capacity. However, the research project conducted on the flexural behaviour of back to back built-up LSBs showed that the detrimental effects of lateral distortional buckling in single LSB members appear to remain with back to back built-up LSB members. The ultimate moment capacity of back to back LSB member is also affected by lateral distortional buckling failure. Therefore an investigation was conducted with an aim to develop suitable strength improvement methods, which are likely to mitigate lateral distortional buckling effects and hence improve the flexural strengths of back to back LSB members. This paper presents the details of this investigation, the results and recommendations for the most suitable and cost-effective method, which significantly improves the moment capacities of back to back LSB members.

The effects of ambulance ramping on Emergency Department length of stay and mortality

Background: Ambulance ramping within the Emergency Department (ED) is a common problem both internationally and in Australia. Previous research has focused on various issues associated with ambulance ramping such as access block, ED overcrowding and ambulance bypass. However, limited research has been conducted on ambulance ramping and its effects on patient outcomes. ----- ----- Methods: A case-control design was used to describe, compare and predict patient outcomes of 619 ramped (cases) vs. 1238 non-ramped (control) patients arriving to one ED via ambulance from 1 June 2007 to 31 August 2007. Cases and controls were matched (on a 1:2 basis) on age, gender and presenting problem. Outcome measures included ED length of stay and in-hospital mortality. ----- ----- Results: The median ramp time for all 1857 patients was 11 (IQR 6—21) min. Compared to nonramped patients, ramped patients had significantly longer wait time to be triaged (10 min vs. 4 min). Ramped patients also comprised significantly higher proportions of those access blocked (43% vs. 34%). No significant difference in the proportion of in-hospital deaths was identified (2%vs. 3%). Multivariate analysis revealed that the likelihood of having an ED length of stay greater than eight hours was 34% higher among patients who were ramped (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.06—1.70, p = 0.014). In relation to in-hospital mortality age was the only significant independent predictor of mortality (p < 0.0001). ----- ----- Conclusion: Ambulance ramping is one factor that contributes to prolonged ED length of stay and adds additional strain on ED service provision. The potential for adverse patient outcomes that may occur as a result of ramping warrants close attention by health care service providers.

Physicality in the Information Age : a normative perspective on the patent eligibility of non-physical methods

There has been much conjecture of late as to whether the patentable subject matter standard contains a physicality requirement. The issue came to a head when the Federal Circuit introduced the machine-or-transformation test in In re Bilski and declared it to be the sole test for determining subject matter eligibility. Many commentators criticized the test, arguing that it is inconsistent with Supreme Court precedent and the need for the patent system to respond appropriately to all new and useful innovation in whatever form it arises. Those criticisms were vindicated when, on appeal, the Supreme Court in Bilski v. Kappos dispensed with any suggestion that the patentable subject matter test involves a physicality requirement. In this article, the issue is addressed from a normative perspective: it asks whether the patentable subject matter test should contain a physicality requirement. The conclusion reached is that it should not, because such a limitation is not an appropriate means of encouraging much of the valuable innovation we are likely to witness during the Information Age. It is contended that it is not only traditionally-recognized mechanical, chemical and industrial manufacturing processes that are patent eligible, but that patent eligibility extends to include non-machine implemented and non-physical methods that do not have any connection with a physical device and do not cause a physical transformation of matter. Concerns raised that there is a trend of overreaching commoditization or propertization, where the boundaries of patent law have been expanded too far, are unfounded since the strictures of novelty, nonobviousness and sufficiency of description will exclude undeserving subject matter from patentability. The argument made is that introducing a physicality requirement will have unintended adverse effects in various fields of technology, particularly those emerging technologies that are likely to have a profound social effect in the future.

Panel studies of new venture creation: a methods-focused review and suggestions for future research

Longitudinal panel studies of large, random samples of business start-ups captured at the pre-operational stage allow researchers to address core issues for entrepreneurship research, namely, the processes of creation of new business ventures as well as their antecedents and outcomes. Here, we perform a methods-orientated review of all 83 journal articles that have used this type of data set, our purpose being to assist users of current data sets as well as designers of new projects in making the best use of this innovative research approach. Our review reveals a number of methods issues that are largely particular to this type of research. We conclude that amidst exemplary contributions, much of the reviewed research has not adequately managed these methods challenges, nor has it made use of the full potential of this new research approach. Specifically, we identify and suggest remedies for context-specific and interrelated methods challenges relating to sample definition, choice of level of analysis, operationalization and conceptualization, use of longitudinal data and dealing with various types of problematic heterogeneity. In addition, we note that future research can make further strides towards full utilization of the advantages of the research approach through better matching (from either direction) between theories and the phenomena captured in the data, and by addressing some under-explored research questions for which the approach may be particularly fruitful.

Mobility, accessibility and activity participation : a comparative assessment of methods to identify rural transport disadvantage

Traditionally, transport disadvantage has been identified using accessibility analysis although the effectiveness of the accessibility planning approach to improving access to goods and services is not known. This paper undertakes a comparative assessment of measures of mobility, accessibility, and participation used to identify transport disadvantage using the concept of activity spaces. A 7 day activity-travel diary data for 89 individuals was collected from two case study areas located in rural Northern Ireland. A spatial analysis was conducted to select the case study areas using criteria derived from the literature. The criteria are related to the levels of area accessibility and area mobility which are known to influence the nature of transport disadvantage. Using the activity-travel diary data individuals weekly as well as day to day variations in activity-travel patterns were visualised. A model was developed using the ArcGIS ModelBuilder tool and was run to derive scores related to individual levels of mobility, accessibility, and participation in activities from the geovisualisation. Using these scores a multiple regression analysis was conducted to identify patterns of transport disadvantage. This study found a positive association between mobility and accessibility, between mobility and participation, and between accessibility and participation in activities. However, area accessibility and area mobility were found to have little impact on individual mobility, accessibility, and participation in activities. Income vis-àvis ´ car-ownership was found to have a significant impact on individual levels of mobility, and accessibility; whereas participation in activities were found to be a function of individual levels of income and their occupational status.