Big data analytics and modeling for Human Mobility

The fast development of Information Communication Technologies (ICT) offers new opportunities to realize future smart cities. To understand, manage and forecast the city's behavior, it is necessary the analysis of different kinds of data from the most varied dataset acquisition systems. The aim of this research activity in the framework of Data Science and Complex Systems Physics is to provide stakeholders with new knowledge tools to improve the sustainability of mobility demand in future cities. Under this perspective, the governance of mobility demand generated by large tourist flows is becoming a vital issue for the quality of life in Italian cities' historical centers, which will worsen in the next future due to the continuous globalization process. Another critical theme is sustainable mobility, which aims to reduce private transportation means in the cities and improve multimodal mobility. We analyze the statistical properties of urban mobility of Venice, Rimini, and Bologna by using different datasets provided by companies and local authorities. We develop algorithms and tools for cartography extraction, trips reconstruction, multimodality classification, and mobility simulation. We show the existence of characteristic mobility paths and statistical properties depending on transport means and user's kinds. Finally, we use our results to model and simulate the overall behavior of the cars moving in the Emilia Romagna Region and the pedestrians moving in Venice with software able to replicate in silico the demand for mobility and its dynamic.

Data-driven multivariate flood hazard modeling

The present Dissertation shows how recent statistical analysis tools and open datasets can be exploited to improve modelling accuracy in two distinct yet interconnected domains of flood hazard (FH) assessment. In the first Part, unsupervised artificial neural networks are employed as regional models for sub-daily rainfall extremes. The models aim to learn a robust relation to estimate locally the parameters of Gumbel distributions of extreme rainfall depths for any sub-daily duration (1-24h). The predictions depend on twenty morphoclimatic descriptors. A large study area in north-central Italy is adopted, where 2238 annual maximum series are available. Validation is performed over an independent set of 100 gauges. Our results show that multivariate ANNs may remarkably improve the estimation of percentiles relative to the benchmark approach from the literature, where Gumbel parameters depend on mean annual precipitation. Finally, we show that the very nature of the proposed ANN models makes them suitable for interpolating predicted sub-daily rainfall quantiles across space and time-aggregation intervals. In the second Part, decision trees are used to combine a selected blend of input geomorphic descriptors for predicting FH. Relative to existing DEM-based approaches, this method is innovative, as it relies on the combination of three characteristics: (1) simple multivariate models, (2) a set of exclusively DEM-based descriptors as input, and (3) an existing FH map as reference information. First, the methods are applied to northern Italy, represented with the MERIT DEM (∼90m resolution), and second, to the whole of Italy, represented with the EU-DEM (25m resolution). The results show that multivariate approaches may (a) significantly enhance flood-prone areas delineation relative to a selected univariate one, (b) provide accurate predictions of expected inundation depths, (c) produce encouraging results in extrapolation, (d) complete the information of imperfect reference maps, and (e) conveniently convert binary maps into continuous representation of FH.

Tolerance optimization with statistical approach in the CAT environment

Nowadays, product development in all its phases plays a fundamental role in the industrial chain. The need for a company to compete at high levels, the need to be quick in responding to market demands and therefore to be able to engineer the product quickly and with a high level of quality, has led to the need to get involved in new more advanced methods/ processes. In recent years, we are moving away from the concept of 2D-based design and production and approaching the concept of Model Based Definition. By using this approach, increasingly complex systems turn out to be easier to deal with but above all cheaper in obtaining them. Thanks to the Model Based Definition it is possible to share data in a lean and simple way to the entire engineering and production chain of the product. The great advantage of this approach is precisely the uniqueness of the information. In this specific thesis work, this approach has been exploited in the context of tolerances with the aid of CAD / CAT software. Tolerance analysis or dimensional variation analysis is a way to understand how sources of variation in part size and assembly constraints propagate between parts and assemblies and how that range affects the ability of a project to meet its requirements. It is critically important to note how tolerance directly affects the cost and performance of products. Worst Case Analysis (WCA) and Statistical analysis (RSS) are the two principal methods in DVA. The thesis aims to show the advantages of using statistical dimensional analysis by creating and examining various case studies, using PTC CREO software for CAD modeling and CETOL 6σ for tolerance analysis. Moreover, it will be provided a comparison between manual and 3D analysis, focusing the attention to the information lost in the 1D case. The results obtained allow us to highlight the need to use this approach from the early stages of the product design cycle.

Graded Meshes In Bio-thermal Problems With Transmission-line Modeling Method.

In this study, the transmission-line modeling (TLM) applied to bio-thermal problems was improved by incorporating several novel computational techniques, which include application of graded meshes which resulted in 9 times faster in computational time and uses only a fraction (16%) of the computational resources used by regular meshes in analyzing heat flow through heterogeneous media. Graded meshes, unlike regular meshes, allow heat sources to be modeled in all segments of the mesh. A new boundary condition that considers thermal properties and thus resulting in a more realistic modeling of complex problems is introduced. Also, a new way of calculating an error parameter is introduced. The calculated temperatures between nodes were compared against the results obtained from the literature and agreed within less than 1% difference. It is reasonable, therefore, to conclude that the improved TLM model described herein has great potential in heat transfer of biological systems.

Variability Modeling Of Rainfall, Deforestation, And Incidence Of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis In Orán, Argentina, 1985-2007.

American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL. In order to reach this goal, monthly recorded data of the incidence of ATL in Orán, Salta, Argentina, were used, in the period 1985-2007. The square root of the relative incidence of ATL and the corresponding variance were formulated as time series, and these data were smoothed by moving averages of 12 and 24 months, respectively. The same procedure was applied to the rainfall data. Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks. These results were tested at 95% confidence level. We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997-2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004. Deforestation activities occurred in this region could explain epidemic peaks observed in both years and also during the entire time of observation except in 2005-2007.

Modeling The Effects Of Temperature And Ph On The Resistance Of Alicyclobacillus Acidoterrestris In Conventional Heat-treated Fruit Beverages Through A Meta-analysis Approach.

In this work, all publicly-accessible published findings on Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris heat resistance in fruit beverages as affected by temperature and pH were compiled. Then, study characteristics (protocols, fruit and variety, °Brix, pH, temperature, heating medium, culture medium, inactivation method, strains, etc.) were extracted from the primary studies, and some of them incorporated to a meta-analysis mixed-effects linear model based on the basic Bigelow equation describing the heat resistance parameters of this bacterium. The model estimated mean D* values (time needed for one log reduction at a temperature of 95 °C and a pH of 3.5) of Alicyclobacillus in beverages of different fruits, two different concentration types, with and without bacteriocins, and with and without clarification. The zT (temperature change needed to cause one log reduction in D-values) estimated by the meta-analysis model were compared to those ('observed' zT values) reported in the primary studies, and in all cases they were within the confidence intervals of the model. The model was capable of predicting the heat resistance parameters of Alicyclobacillus in fruit beverages beyond the types available in the meta-analytical data. It is expected that the compilation of the thermal resistance of Alicyclobacillus in fruit beverages, carried out in this study, will be of utility to food quality managers in the determination or validation of the lethality of their current heat treatment processes.

Supercritical CO2 recovery of caffeine from green coffee oil: new experimental solubility data and modeling

The caffeine solubility in supercritical CO2 was studied by assessing the effects of pressure and temperature on the extraction of green coffee oil (GCO). The Peng-Robinson¹ equation of state was used to correlate the solubility of caffeine with a thermodynamic model and two mixing rules were evaluated: the classical mixing rule of van der Waals with two adjustable parameters (PR-VDW) and a density dependent one, proposed by Mohamed and Holder² with two (PR-MH, two parameters adjusted to the attractive term) and three (PR-MH3 two parameters adjusted to the attractive and one to the repulsive term) adjustable parameters. The best results were obtained with the mixing rule of Mohamed and Holder² with three parameters.

Modelos estatísticos indicadores de comportamentos associados a bem-estar térmico para matrizes pesadas

The study of female broiler breeders is of great importance for the country as poultry production is one of the largest export items, and Brazil is the second largest broiler meat exporter. Animal behavior is known as a response to the effect of several interaction factors among them the environment. In this way the internal housing environment is an element that gives hints regarding to the bird s thermal comfort. Female broiler breeder behavior, expresses in form of specific pattern the bird s health and welfare. This research had the objective of applying predictive statistical models through the use of simulation, presenting animal comfort scenarios facing distinct environmental conditions. The research was developed with data collected in a controlled environment using Hybro - PG® breeding submitted to distinct levels of temperature, three distinct types of standard ration and age. Descriptive and exploratory analysis were proceeded, and afterwards the modeling process using the Generalized Estimation Equation (GEE). The research allowed the development of the thermal comfort indicators by statistical model equations of predicting female broiler breeder behavior under distinct studied scenarios.

Acupuncture for the prevention of radiation-induced xerostomia in patients with head and neck cancer

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of acupuncture in minimizing the severity of radiation-induced xerostomia in patients with head and neck cancer. A total of 24 consecutive patients receiving > 5000 cGy radiotherapy (RT) involving the major salivary glands bilaterally were assigned to either the preventive acupuncture group (PA, n = 12), treated with acupuncture before and during RT, or the control group (CT, n = 12), treated with RT and not receiving acupuncture. After RT completion, clinical response was assessed in all patients by syalometry, measuring the resting (RSFR) and stimulated (SSFR) salivary flow rates, and by the visual analogue scale (VAS) regarding dry mouth-related symptoms. Statistical analyses were performed with repeated-measures using a mixed-effect modeling procedure and analysis of variance. An alpha level of 0.05 was accepted for statistical significance. Although all patients exhibited some degree of impairment in salivary gland functioning after RT, significant differences were found between the groups. Patients in the PA group showed improved salivary flow rates (RSFR, SSFR; p < 0.001) and decreased xerostomia-related symptoms (VAS, p < 0.05) compared with patients in the CT group. Although PA treatment did not prevent the oral sequelae of RT completely, it significantly minimized the severity of radiation-induced xerostomia. The results suggest that acupuncture focused in a preventive approach can be a useful therapy in the management of patients with head and neck cancer undergoing RT.

Scavenging processes of atmospheric particulate matter: a numerical modeling of case studies

Below cloud scavenging processes have been investigated considering a numerical simulation, local atmospheric conditions and particulate matter (PM) concentrations, at different sites in Germany. The below cloud scavenging model has been coupled with bulk particulate matter counter TSI (Trust Portacounter dataset, consisting of the variability prediction of the particulate air concentrations during chosen rain events. The TSI samples and meteorological parameters were obtained during three winter Campaigns: at Deuselbach, March 1994, consisting in three different events; Sylt, April 1994 and; Freiburg, March 1995. The results show a good agreement between modeled and observed air concentrations, emphasizing the quality of the conceptual model used in the below cloud scavenging numerical modeling. The results between modeled and observed data have also presented high square Pearson coefficient correlations over 0.7 and significant, except the Freiburg Campaign event. The differences between numerical simulations and observed dataset are explained by the wind direction changes and, perhaps, the absence of advection mass terms inside the modeling. These results validate previous works based on the same conceptual model.

Enzyme kinetics, structural analysis and molecular modeling studies on a series of Schistosoma mansoni PNP inhibitors

The enzyme purine nucleoside phosphorylase from Schistosoma mansoni (SmPNP) is an attractive molecular target for the development of novel drugs against schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease that affects about 200 million people worldwide. In the present work, enzyme kinetic studies were carried out in order to determine the potency and mechanism of inhibition of a series of SmPNP inhibitors. In addition to the biochemical investigations, crystallographic and molecular modeling studies revealed important molecular features for binding affinity towards the target enzyme, leading to the development of structure-activity relationships (SAR).

Structural and chemical basis for anticancer activity of a series of 'beta'-tubulin ligands: molecular modeling and 3D QSAR studies

An important approach to cancer therapy is the design of small molecule modulators that interfere with microtubule dynamics through their specific binding to the ²-subunit of tubulin. In the present work, comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) studies were conducted on a series of discodermolide analogs with antimitotic properties. Significant correlation coefficients were obtained (CoMFA(i), q² =0.68, r²=0.94; CoMFA(ii), q² = 0.63, r²= 0.91), indicating the good internal and external consistency of the models generated using two independent structural alignment strategies. The models were externally validated employing a test set, and the predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results. The final QSAR models and the 3D contour maps provided important insights into the chemical and structural basis involved in the molecular recognition process of this family of discodermolide analogs, and should be useful for the design of new specific ²-tubulin modulators with potent anticancer activity.

Neural networks and statistical analysis for classification of corneal videokeratography maps based on Zernike coefficients: a quantitative comparison

PURPOSE: The main goal of this study was to develop and compare two different techniques for classification of specific types of corneal shapes when Zernike coefficients are used as inputs. A feed-forward artificial Neural Network (NN) and discriminant analysis (DA) techniques were used. METHODS: The inputs both for the NN and DA were the first 15 standard Zernike coefficients for 80 previously classified corneal elevation data files from an Eyesys System 2000 Videokeratograph (VK), installed at the Departamento de Oftalmologia of the Escola Paulista de Medicina, São Paulo. The NN had 5 output neurons which were associated with 5 typical corneal shapes: keratoconus, with-the-rule astigmatism, against-the-rule astigmatism, "regular" or "normal" shape and post-PRK. RESULTS: The NN and DA responses were statistically analyzed in terms of precision ([true positive+true negative]/total number of cases). Mean overall results for all cases for the NN and DA techniques were, respectively, 94% and 84.8%. CONCLUSION: Although we used a relatively small database, results obtained in the present study indicate that Zernike polynomials as descriptors of corneal shape may be a reliable parameter as input data for diagnostic automation of VK maps, using either NN or DA.

Turbulence in collisionless plasmas: statistical analysis from numerical simulations with pressure anisotropy

In recent years, we have experienced increasing interest in the understanding of the physical properties of collisionless plasmas, mostly because of the large number of astrophysical environments (e. g. the intracluster medium (ICM)) containing magnetic fields that are strong enough to be coupled with the ionized gas and characterized by densities sufficiently low to prevent the pressure isotropization with respect to the magnetic line direction. Under these conditions, a new class of kinetic instabilities arises, such as firehose and mirror instabilities, which have been studied extensively in the literature. Their role in the turbulence evolution and cascade process in the presence of pressure anisotropy, however, is still unclear. In this work, we present the first statistical analysis of turbulence in collisionless plasmas using three-dimensional numerical simulations and solving double-isothermal magnetohydrodynamic equations with the Chew-Goldberger-Low laws closure (CGL-MHD). We study models with different initial conditions to account for the firehose and mirror instabilities and to obtain different turbulent regimes. We found that the CGL-MHD subsonic and supersonic turbulences show small differences compared to the MHD models in most cases. However, in the regimes of strong kinetic instabilities, the statistics, i.e. the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of density and velocity, are very different. In subsonic models, the instabilities cause an increase in the dispersion of density, while the dispersion of velocity is increased by a large factor in some cases. Moreover, the spectra of density and velocity show increased power at small scales explained by the high growth rate of the instabilities. Finally, we calculated the structure functions of velocity and density fluctuations in the local reference frame defined by the direction of magnetic lines. The results indicate that in some cases the instabilities significantly increase the anisotropy of fluctuations. These results, even though preliminary and restricted to very specific conditions, show that the physical properties of turbulence in collisionless plasmas, as those found in the ICM, may be very different from what has been largely believed.

Spectral Region Optimization for Raman-Based Optical Biopsy of Inflammatory Lesions

Objective: The biochemical alterations between inflammatory fibrous hyperplasia (IFH) and normal tissues of buccal mucosa were probed by using the FT-Raman spectroscopy technique. The aim was to find the minimal set of Raman bands that would furnish the best discrimination. Background: Raman-based optical biopsy is a widely recognized potential technique for noninvasive real-time diagnosis. However, few studies had been devoted to the discrimination of very common subtle or early pathologic states as inflammatory processes that are always present on, for example, cancer lesion borders. Methods: Seventy spectra of IFH from 14 patients were compared with 30 spectra of normal tissues from six patients. The statistical analysis was performed with principal components analysis and soft independent modeling class analogy cross-validated, leave-one-out methods. Results: Bands close to 574, 1,100, 1,250 to 1,350, and 1,500 cm(-1) (mainly amino acids and collagen bands) showed the main intragroup variations that are due to the acanthosis process in the IFH epithelium. The 1,200 (C-C aromatic/DNA), 1,350 (CH(2) bending/collagen 1), and 1,730 cm(-1) (collagen III) regions presented the main intergroup variations. This finding was interpreted as originating in an extracellular matrix-degeneration process occurring in the inflammatory tissues. The statistical analysis results indicated that the best discrimination capability (sensitivity of 95% and specificity of 100%) was found by using the 530-580 cm(-1) spectral region. Conclusions: The existence of this narrow spectral window enabling normal and inflammatory diagnosis also had useful implications for an in vivo dispersive Raman setup for clinical applications.