Increased muscle sympathetic nerve activity predicts mortality in heart failure patients

Background: Previous studies have associated neurohumoral excitation, as estimated by plasma norepinephrine levels, with increased mortality in heart failure. However, the prognostic value of neurovascular interplay in heart failure (HF) is unknown. We tested the hypothesis that the muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) and forearm blood flow would predict mortality in chronic heart failure patients. Methods: One hundred and twenty two heart failure patients, NYHA II-IV, age 50 +/- 1 ys, LVEF 33 +/- 1%, and LVDD 7.1 +/- 0.2 mm, were followed up for one year. MSNA was directly measured from the peroneal nerve by microneurography. Forearm blood flow was obtained by venous occlusion plethysmography. The variables were analyzed by using univariate, stepwise multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Results: After one year, 34 pts died from cardiac death. The univariate analysis showed that MSNA, forearm blood flow, LVDD, LVEF, and heart rate were significant predictors of mortality. The multivariate analysis showed that only MSNA (P = 0.001) and forearm blood flow (P = 0.003) were significant independent predictors of mortality. On the basis of median levels of MSNA, survival rate was significantly lower in pts with >49 bursts/min. Similarly, survival rate was significantly lower in pts with forearm blood flow <1.87 ml/min/100 ml (P = 0.002). Conclusion: MSNA and forearm blood flow predict mortality rate in patients with heart failure. It remains unknown whether therapies that specifically target these abnormalities will improve survival in heart failure. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

Prediction of psychological adjustment to multiple sclerosis

This study examined the utility of self-efficacy as a predictor of social activity and mood control in multiple sclerosis (MS). Seventy-one subjects with MS were recruited from people attending an MS centre or from a mailing list and were examined on two occasions that were two months apart. Clinic patients were more disabled than patients who completed assessments by post, but they were of higher socioeconomic status and were less dysphoric; We attempted to predict self-reported performance of mood control and social activity at two months, from self-efficacy or performance on these tasks at pretest. Demographic variables, disorder status, disability, self-esteem and depression were also allowed to compete for entry into multiple regressions. Substantial stability in mood, performance and disability was observed over the two months. In both mood control and social activity, past performance was the strongest predictor of later performance, but self-efficacy also contributed significantly to the prediction. The disability level entered a prediction of social activity; but no other variables predicted either type of performance. A secondary analysis predicting self-esteem at two months also included self-efficacy for social activity, illustrating the contribution of perceived capability to later assessments of self-worth. The study provided support for self-efficacy as a predictor of later behavioural outcomes and self-esteem in multiple sclerosis. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Evaluating SVM and MLDA in the extraction of discriminant regions for mental state prediction

Pattern recognition methods have been successfully applied in several functional neuroimaging studies. These methods can be used to infer cognitive states, so-called brain decoding. Using such approaches, it is possible to predict the mental state of a subject or a stimulus class by analyzing the spatial distribution of neural responses. In addition it is possible to identify the regions of the brain containing the information that underlies the classification. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) is one of the most popular methods used to carry out this type of analysis. The aim of the current study is the evaluation of SVM and Maximum uncertainty Linear Discrimination Analysis (MLDA) in extracting the voxels containing discriminative information for the prediction of mental states. The comparison has been carried out using fMRI data from 41 healthy control subjects who participated in two experiments, one involving visual-auditory stimulation and the other based on bimanual fingertapping sequences. The results suggest that MLDA uses significantly more voxels containing discriminative information (related to different experimental conditions) to classify the data. On the other hand, SVM is more parsimonious and uses less voxels to achieve similar classification accuracies. In conclusion, MLDA is mostly focused on extracting all discriminative information available, while SVM extracts the information which is sufficient for classification. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Asthma mortality in Australia 1920-94: Age, period, and cohort effects

Study objective-To investigate asthma mortality during 1920-94 in Australia in order to assess the relative role of period and birth cohort effects. Design-Asthma mortality (both sexes) was age standardised and examined for changes over time. The data were also examined for age, period, and cohort (APC) effects using Poisson regression modelling. Setting-National Australian mortality data. Participants-Population (both sexes) aged 15-34 years, 1920-94. Main results-Age adjusted period rates indicate an increase in asthma mortality during the 1950s, and increases and subsequent falls (epidemics) during the mid 1960s and late 1980s. APC modelling suggested an increasing cohort effect (adjusted for both age and period) from the birth cohort 1950-54 onwards. Period effects (adjusted for age and cohort) are characterised by an increase in the 1950s (possibly due to changes in diagnostic labelling), minimal or no increases in the mid 1960s and late 1980s (where period peaks had been noted when data were adjusted for age only), and declines in mortality risk subsequent to the periods where age-period analysis had noted increases. Thus, in Australia, some of the mid 1960s epidemic in asthma deaths, and all of the late 1980s mortality increase, seem to be attributable to cohort effects. Conclusions-The increase in asthma mortality cohort effect is consistent with empirical evidence of recent increases in prevalence (and presumably incidence) of asthma in Australia, and suggests the need for more research into the underlying environmental aetiology of this condition.

New body fat prediction equations for severely obese patients

Background & aims: Severe obesity imposes physical limitations to body composition assessment. Our aim was to compare body fat (BF) estimations of severely obese patients obtained by bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and air displacement plethysmography (ADP) for development of new equations for BF prediction. Methods: Severely obese subjects (83 female/36 mate, mean age = 41.6 +/- 11.6 years) had BF estimated by BIA and ADP. The agreement of the data was evaluated using Bland-Altman`s graphic and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). A multivariate regression analysis was performed to develop and validate new predictive equations. Results: BF estimations from BIA (64.8 +/- 15 kg) and ADP (65.6 +/- 16.4 kg) did not differ (p > 0.05, with good accuracy, precision, and CCC), but the Bland- Altman graphic showed a wide Limit of agreement (- 10.4; 8.8). The standard BIA equation overestimated BF in women (-1.3 kg) and underestimated BF in men (5.6 kg; p < 0.05). Two BF new predictive equations were generated after BIA measurement, which predicted BF with higher accuracy, precision, CCC, and limits of agreement than the standard BIA equation. Conclusions: Standard BIA equations were inadequate for estimating BF in severely obese patients. Equations developed especially for this population provide more accurate BF assessment. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Factors associated with mortality in patients with bloodstream infection and pneumonia due to Stenotrophomonas maltophilia

Severe infections caused by Stenotrophomonas maltophilia are associated with high mortality, and strategies to improve the clinical outcome for infected patients are needed. A retrospective cohort study of patients with bloodstream infection (BSIs) and pneumonia caused by S. maltophilia was conducted. Multivariate analysis was performed to access factors associated with 14-day mortality. A total of 60 infections were identified. Among these, eight (13%) were pneumonias and 52 were BSIs; 33.3% were primary, 13% were central venous catheter (CVC)-related and 40% were secondary BSIs. Fifty-seven (85%) patients had received previous antimicrobial therapy; 88% had CVC, 57% mechanical ventilation and 75% were in the intensive care unit at the onset of infection. Malignancy (45%) was the most frequent underlying disease. The mean of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores was 17 and for the Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, it was 7 points. The overall and 14-day mortality were, respectively, 75% and 48%. Forty-seven (78%) patients were treated and, of these, 74% received trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. Independent risk factors associated with mortality were SOFA index > 6 points (0.005) and septic shock (0.03). The Kaplan-Meier estimations curves showed that patients with APACHE II score > 20 and SOFA score > 10 had a survival chance of, respectively, less than 8% and less than 10% (P <= 0.001) at 21 days after the first positive S. maltophilia culture. Our results suggest that the independent factors associated with outcome in patients with infection caused by S. maltophilia are septic shock and higher SOFA index.

Very early prediction of response to HCV treatment with PEG-IFN-alfa-2a and ribavirin in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients

The objective of this study was to find very early viral kinetic markers to predict nonresponse to hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy in a group of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV-coinfected patients. Twenty-six patients (15 HCV genotype-1 and 11 genotype-3) were treated with a 48-week regimen of peginterferon-alfa-2a (PEG-IFN) (180 mu g/week) and weight-based ribavirin (11 mg/kg/day). Samples were collected at baseline; 4, 8, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36 and 42 h; days 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 15, 22, 29, 43 and 57 then weekly and monthly. Five patients discontinued treatment. Seven patients (27%) achieved a sustained virological response (SVR). Nadir HCV RNA levels were observed 1.6 +/- 0.3 days after initiation of therapy, followed by a 0.3- to 12.9-fold viral rebound until the administration of the second dose of PEG-IFN, which were not associated with SVR or HCV genotype. A viral decline < 1.19 log for genotype-1 and < 0.97 log for genotype-3, 2 days after starting therapy, had a negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% for SVR. The day 2 virological response had a similar positive predictive value for SVR as a rapid virological response at week 4. In addition, a second-phase viral decline slope (i.e., measured from day 2 to 29) < 0.3 log/week had a NPV = 100% for SVR. We conclude that first-phase viral decline at day 2 and second-phase viral decline slope (< 0.3 log/week) are excellent predictors of nonresponse. Further studies are needed to validate these viral kinetic parameters as early on-treatment prognosticators of nonresponse in patients with HCV and HIV.

Potential Effect of Using ABO-Compatible Living-Donor Liver Transplantation

Liver transplantation increased 1.84-fold from 1988 to 2004. However, the number of patients on the waiting list for a liver increased 2.71-fold, from 553 to 1500. We used a mathematical equation to analyze the potential effect of using ABO-compatible living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT) on both our liver transplantation program and the waiting list. We calculated the prevalence distribution of blood groups (O, A, B, and AB) in the population and the probability of having a compatible parent or sibling for LDLT. The incidence of ABO compatibility in the overall population was as follows: A, 0.31; B, 0.133; O, 0.512; and AB, 0.04. The ABO compatibility for parent donors was blood group A, 0.174; B, 0.06; O, 0.152; and AB, 0.03; and for sibling donors was A, 0.121; B, 0.05; O, 0.354; and AB, 0.03. Use of LDLT can reduce the pressure on our liver transplantation waiting list by decreasing its size by at least 16.5% at 20 years after its introduction. Such a program could save an estimated 3600 lives over the same period.

Late Gadolinium Enhancement Magnetic Resonance Imaging in the Diagnosis and Prognosis of Endomyocardial Fibrosis Patients

Background-Endocardial fibrous tissue (FT) deposition is a hallmark of endomyocardial fibrosis (EMF). Echocardiography is a first-line and the standard technique for the diagnosis of this disease. Although late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) allows FT characterization, its role in the diagnosis and prognosis of EMF has not been investigated. Methods and Results-Thirty-six patients (29 women; age, 54 +/- 12 years) with EMF diagnosis after clinical evaluation and comprehensive 2-dimensional Doppler echocardiography underwent cine-CMR for assessing ventricular volumes, ejection fraction and mass, and LGE-CMR for FT characterization and quantification. Indexed FT volume (FT/body surface area) was calculated after planimetry of the 8 to 12 slices obtained in the short-axis view at end-diastole (mL/m(2)). Surgical resection of FT was performed in 16 patients. In all patients, areas of LGE were confined to the endocardium, frequently as a continuous streak from the inflow tract extending to the apex, where it was usually most prominent. There was a relation between increased FT/body surface area and worse New York Heart Association functional class and with increased probability of surgery (P<0.05). The histopathologic examination of resected FT showed typical features of EMF with extensive endocardial fibrous thickening, proliferation of small vessels, and scarce inflammatory infiltrate. In multivariate analysis, the patients with FT/body surface area >19 mL/m(2) had an increased mortality rate, with a relative risk of 10.8. Conclusions-Our study provides evidence that LGE-CMR is useful in the diagnosis and prognosis of EMF through quantification of the typical pattern of FT deposition. (Circ Cardiovasc Imaging. 2011;4:304-311.)

Early neonatal morbidity and mortality in growth-discordant twins

Objective. To evaluate early neonatal morbidity and mortality in twin pregnancies with growth discordance. Design. Retrospective study. Setting. Tertiary teaching hospital, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Population. A total of 151 twin pregnancies managed and delivered at the Multiple Pregnancy Unit at Sao Paulo University Hospital between 1998 and 2004. Methods. Comparison between twin pregnancies with weight discordance 20% and pregnancies concordant for fetal weight. Cases with fetal death, abnormalities, twin-to-twin transfusion and delivery before 26 weeks or in another hospital were excluded. Outcome measures. Early neonatal morbidity (Apgar at 5 minutes 7, respiratory or neurological complications, infection, necrotizing enterocolitis, length of hospital stay) and mortality. Results. Forty (26.5%) pregnancies presented discordance 20% and 111 (73.5%) were concordant. In the discordant group, 75% of pregnancies had at least one growth restricted fetus (10th centile). In concordant twin pregnancies, monochorionic cases (22.5%) presented with lower gestational age (34.3 vs. 36.2 weeks), lower birthweight (2,067 vs. 2,334 g) and a longer period of hospital stay (5.5 vs. 3.0) compared to dichorionic concordant twins. No differences between monochorionic and dichorionic subgroups were observed in discordant twins. Pregnancies in which at least one baby was born with a birthweight below the 10th centile showed that discordant pregnancies had a lower gestational age at delivery (35.2 vs. 36.8 weeks) and a longer period of hospital stay (9 vs. 4 weeks) compared to concordant cases. Neonatal mortality was similar in discordant (3.7%) and concordant (4.5%) twins. Conclusion. Early perinatal morbidity is increased in twin pregnancies with birthweight discordance 20% only when associated with fetal growth restriction and low birthweight.

Ductus venosus Doppler and postnatal outcomes in fetuses with absent or reversed end-diastolic flow in the umbilical arteries

Objective: To evaluate the relationship between ductus venosus Doppler findings on the day of delivery and postnatal outcomes in pregnancies with absent or reversed end-diastolic (ARED) flow in the umbilical arteries. Study design: Postnatal outcomes of 103 newborns of pregnancies with a diagnosis of ARED flow on Doppler velocimetry of the umbilical arteries were analyzed retrospectively between January 1997 and December 2004. Single pregnancies and fetuses without malformations were included. The cases were divided into two groups according to the flow during atrial contraction (a-wave) in the ductus venosus on the day of delivery: group A, 20 cases with absent or reversed flow in the ductus venosus and group B, 83 cases with positive flow. The results were analyzed statistically using the chi-square test, Fisher`s exact test and the Mann-Whitney U test with the level of significance set at 5%. Results: All newborns were delivered by cesarean section. Gestational age was similar in the two groups (group A: 30 weeks and group B: 30.9 weeks, P = 0.23). Absent or reversed ductus venosus flow was associated with the following adverse postnatal outcomes: lower birthweight (P < 0.001), lower Apgar scores in the first (P = 0.001) and fifth minute (P = 0.001), a higher frequency of orotracheal intubation (P = 0.001) and pH at birth less than 7.20 (P < 0.001), pulmonary hemorrhage (P = 0.03), thrombocytopenia (P = 0.02), hypoglycemia (P = 0.01), intracranial hemorrhage (P = 0.02), and postnatal death (P = 0.007). Conclusion: The study of ductus venosus flow may provide additional information regarding the best time for interruption of pregnancies with ARED flow in the umbilical arteries characterized by extreme prematurity. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in stroke incidence, mortality and case fatality rates in Joinville, Brazil: 1995-2006

Background: Studying stroke rates in a whole community is a rational way to assess the quality of patient care and primary prevention. However, there are few studies of trends in stroke rates worldwide and none in Brazil. Objective: Established study methods were used to define the rates for first ever stroke in a defined population in Brazil compared with similar data obtained and published in 1995. Methods: All stroke cases occurring in the city of Joinville during 2005-2006 were prospectively ascertained. Crude incidence and mortality rates were determined, and age adjusted rates and 30 day case fatality were calculated and compared with the 1995 data. Results: Of the 1323 stroke cases registered, 759 were first ever strokes. The incidence rate per 100 000 was 105.4 (95% CI 98.0 to 113.2), mortality rate was 23.9 (95% CI 20.4 to 27.8) and the 30 day case fatality was 19.1%. Compared with the 1995 data, we found that the incidence had decreased by 27%, mortality decreased by 37% and the 30 day case fatality decreased by 28%. Conclusions: Using defined criteria we showed that in an industrial southern Brazilian city, stroke rates are similar to those from developed countries. A significant decrease in stroke rates over the past decade was also found, suggesting an improvement in primary prevention and inpatient care of stroke patients in Joinville.

Air Pollution and Mortality in Latin America The Role of Education

Background: People with less education in Europe, Asia, and the United States are at higher risk of mortality associated with daily and longer-term air pollution exposure. We examined whether educational level modified associations between mortality and ambient particulate pollution (PM(10)) in Latin America, using several timescales. Methods: The study population included people who died during 1998-2002 in Mexico City, Mexico; Santiago, Chile; and Sao Paulo, Brazil. We fit city-specific robust Poisson regressions to daily deaths for nonexternal-cause mortality, and then stratified by age, sex, and educational attainment among adults older than age 21 years (none, some primary, some secondary, and high school degree or more). Predictor variables included a natural spline for temporal trend, linear PM(10) and apparent temperature at matching lags, and day-of-week indicators. We evaluated PM(10) for lags 0 and I day, and fit an unconstrained distributed lag model for cumulative 6-day effects. Results: The effects of a 10-mu g/m(3) increment in lag 1 PM(10) on all nonextemal-cause adult mortality were for Mexico City 0.39% (95% confidence interval = 0.131/-0.65%); Sao Paulo 1.04% (0.71%-1.38%); and for Santiago 0.61% (0.40%-0.83%. We found cumulative 6-day effects for adult mortality in Santiago (0.86% [0.48%-1.23%]) and Sao Paulo (1.38% [0.85%-1.91%]), but no consistent gradients by educational status. Conclusions: PM(10) had important short- and intermediate-term effects on mortality in these Latin American cities, but associations did not differ consistently by educational level.

International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the `ISOTHURM` project

Background This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations in low- and middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, in non-OECD countries, respond to temperature extremes. Methods The cities were: Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, So Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town, Ljubljana, Bucharest and Sofia. For each city, daily mortality was examined in relation to ambient temperature using autoregressive Poisson models (2- to 5-year series) adjusted for season, relative humidity, air pollution, day of week and public holidays. Results Most cities showed a U-shaped temperature-mortality relationship, with clear evidence of increasing death rates at colder temperatures in all cities except Ljubljana, Salvador and Delhi and with increasing heat in all cities except Chiang Mai and Cape Town. Estimates of the temperature threshold below which cold-related mortality began to increase ranged from 15 degrees C to 29 degrees C; the threshold for heat-related deaths ranged from 16 degrees C to 31C. Heat thresholds were generally higher in cities with warmer climates, while cold thresholds were unrelated to climate. Conclusions Urban populations, in diverse geographic settings, experience increases in mortality due to both high and low temperatures. The effects of heat and cold vary depending on climate and non-climate factors such as the population disease profile and age structure. Although such populations will undergo some adaptation to increasing temperatures, many are likely to have substantial vulnerability to climate change. Additional research is needed to elucidate vulnerability within populations.