940 resultados para mortality analysis


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BACKGROUND: The prognosis of patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding is very poor when the standard-of-care fails to control bleeding. New treatment modalities are needed in these patients. AIM: To synthesise the available evidence on the efficacy of self-expanding metal stents (SEMS) in patients with cirrhosis and severe or refractory oesophageal variceal bleeding. METHODS: Meta-analysis of trials evaluating SEMS in patients with cirrhosis and severe or refractory oesophageal variceal bleeding. RESULTS: Thirteen studies were included. The pooled estimate rates were 0.40 (95% confidence interval, CI = 0.31-0.49) for death, 0.41 (95% CI = 0.29-0.53) for liver-related death and 0.36 (95% CI = 0.26-0.47) for death at day 30, with low heterogeneity between studies. The pooled estimate rates were 0.12 (95% CI = 0.07-0.21) for mortality related to variceal bleeding, and 0.18 (95% CI = 0.11-0.29) for failure to control bleeding with SEMS, with no or low heterogeneity between studies. The pooled estimate rate were 0.16 (95% CI = 0.04-0.48) for rebleeding after stent removal and 0.28 (95% CI = 0.17-0.43) for stent migration, with high heterogeneity. A significant proportion of patients had access to liver transplantation or to TIPSS [pooled estimate rate 0.10 (95% CI = 0.04-0.21) and 0.26 (95% CI = 0.18-0.36), respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: Fewer than 40% of patients treated with SEMS were dead at 1 month. SEMS can be used as a bridge to TIPSS or to liver transplantation in a significant proportion of patients. Additional studies are required to identify potential risk factors leading to a poor prognosis in patients with acute variceal bleeding in whom the use of SEMS could be considered.

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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is a severe burden of modern medicine. Aldosterone antagonist is publicized as effective in reducing mortality in patients with heart failure (HF) or post myocardial infarction (MI). Our study aimed to assess the efficacy of AAs on mortality including SCD, hospitalization admission and several common adverse effects. METHODS: We searched Embase, PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane library and clinicaltrial.gov for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assigning AAs in patients with HF or post MI through May 2015. The comparator included standard medication or placebo, or both. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed. Event rates were compared using a random effects model. Prospective RCTs of AAs with durations of at least 8 weeks were selected if they included at least one of the following outcomes: SCD, all-cause/cardiovascular mortality, all-cause/cardiovascular hospitalization and common side effects (hyperkalemia, renal function degradation and gynecomastia). RESULTS: Data from 19,333 patients enrolled in 25 trials were included. In patients with HF, this treatment significantly reduced the risk of SCD by 19% (RR 0.81; 95% CI, 0.67-0.98; p = 0.03); all-cause mortality by 19% (RR 0.81; 95% CI, 0.74-0.88, p<0.00001) and cardiovascular death by 21% (RR 0.79; 95% CI, 0.70-0.89, p<0.00001). In patients with post-MI, the matching reduced risks were 20% (RR 0.80; 95% CI, 0.66-0.98; p = 0.03), 15% (RR 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76-0.95, p = 0.003) and 17% (RR 0.83; 95% CI, 0.74-0.94, p = 0.003), respectively. Concerning both subgroups, the relative risks respectively decreased by 19% (RR 0.81; 95% CI, 0.71-0.92; p = 0.002) for SCD, 18% (RR 0.82; 95% CI, 0.77-0.88, p < 0.0001) for all-cause mortality and 20% (RR 0.80; 95% CI, 0.74-0.87, p < 0.0001) for cardiovascular mortality in patients treated with AAs. As well, hospitalizations were significantly reduced, while common adverse effects were significantly increased. CONCLUSION: Aldosterone antagonists appear to be effective in reducing SCD and other mortality events, compared with placebo or standard medication in patients with HF and/or after a MI.

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Health and inequalities in health among inhabitants of European cities are of major importance for European public health and there is great interest in how different health care systems in Europe perform in the reduction of health inequalities. However, evidence on the spatial distribution of cause-specific mortality across neighbourhoods of European cities is scarce. This study presents maps of avoidable mortality in European cities and analyses differences in avoidable mortality between neighbourhoods with different levels of deprivation. Methods: We determined the level of mortality from 14 avoidable causes of death for each neighbourhood of 15 large cities in different European regions. To address the problems associated with Standardised Mortality Ratios for small areas we smooth them using the Bayesian model proposed by Besag, York and Mollié. Ecological regression analysis was used to assess the association between social deprivation and mortality. Results: Mortality from avoidable causes of death is higher in deprived neighbourhoods and mortality rate ratios between areas with different levels of deprivation differ between gender and cities. In most cases rate ratios are lower among women. While Eastern and Southern European cities show higher levels of avoidable mortality, the association of mortality with social deprivation tends to be higher in Northern and lower in Southern Europe. Conclusions: There are marked differences in the level of avoidable mortality between neighbourhoods of European cities and the level of avoidable mortality is associated with social deprivation. There is no systematic difference in the magnitude of this association between European cities or regions. Spatial patterns of avoidable mortality across small city areas can point to possible local problems and specific strategies to reduce health inequality which is important for the development of urban areas and the well-being of their inhabitants

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Case-crossover is one of the most used designs for analyzing the health-related effects of air pollution. Nevertheless, no one has reviewed its application and methodology in this context. Objective: We conducted a systematic review of case-crossover (CCO) designs used to study the relationship between air pollution and morbidity and mortality, from the standpoint of methodology and application.Data sources and extraction: A search was made of the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases.Reports were classified as methodologic or applied. From the latter, the following information was extracted: author, study location, year, type of population (general or patients), dependent variable(s), independent variable(s), type of CCO design, and whether effect modification was analyzed for variables at the individual level. Data synthesis: The review covered 105 reports that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Of these, 24 addressed methodological aspects, and the remainder involved the design’s application. In the methodological reports, the designs that yielded the best results in simulation were symmetric bidirectional CCO and time-stratified CCO. Furthermore, we observed an increase across time in the use of certain CCO designs, mainly symmetric bidirectional and time-stratified CCO. The dependent variables most frequently analyzed were those relating to hospital morbidity; the pollutants most often studied were those linked to particulate matter. Among the CCO-application reports, 13.6% studied effect modification for variables at the individual level.Conclusions: The use of CCO designs has undergone considerable growth; the most widely used designs were those that yielded better results in simulation studies: symmetric bidirectional and time-stratified CCO. However, the advantages of CCO as a method of analysis of variables at the individual level are put to little use

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Hormone-dependent diseases, e.g. cancers, rank high in mortality in the modern world, and thus, there is an urgent need for new drugs to treat these diseases. Although the diseases are clearly hormone-dependent, changes in circulating hormone concentrations do not explain all the pathological processes observed in the diseased tissues. A more inclusive explanation is provided by intracrinology – a regulation of hormone concentrations at the target tissue level. This is mediated by the expression of a pattern of steroid-activating and -inactivating enzymes in steroid target tissues, thus enabling a concentration gradient between the blood circulation and the tissue. Hydroxysteroid (17beta) dehydrogenases (HSD17Bs) form a family of enzymes that catalyze the conversion between low active 17-ketosteroids and highly active 17beta-hydroxysteroids. HSD17B1 converts low active estrogen (E1) to highly active estradiol (E2) with high catalytic efficiency, and altered HSD17B1 expression has been associated with several hormone-dependent diseases, including breast cancer, endometriosis, endometrial hyperplasia and cancer, and ovarian epithelial cancer. Because of its putative role in E2 biosynthesis in ovaries and peripheral target tissues, HSD17B1 is considered to be a promising drug target for estrogen-dependent diseases. A few studies have indicated that the enzyme also has androgenic activity, but they have been ignored. In the present study, transgenic mice overexpressing human HSD17B1 (HSD17B1TG mice) were used to study the effects of the enzyme in vivo. Firstly, the substrate specificity of human HSD17B1 was determined in vivo. The results indicated that human HSD17B1 has significant androgenic activity in female mice in vivo, which resulted in increased fetal testosterone concentration and female disorder of sexual development appearing as masculinized phenotype (increased anogenital distance, lack of nipples, lack of vaginal opening, combination of vagina with urethra, enlarged Wolffian duct remnants in the mesovarium and enlarged female prostate). Fetal androgen exposure has been linked to polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and metabolic syndrome during adulthood in experimental animals and humans, but the genes involved in PCOS are largely unknown. A putative mechanism to accumulate androgens during fetal life by HSD17B1 overexpression was shown in the present study. Furthermore, as a result of prenatal androgen exposure locally in the ovaries, HSD17B1TG females developed ovarian benign serous cystadenomas in adulthood. These benign lesions are precursors of low-grade ovarian serous tumors. Ovarian cancer ranks fifth in mortality of all female cancers in Finland, and most of the ovarian cancers arise from the surface epithelium. The formation of the lesions was prevented by prenatal antiandrogen treatment and by transplanting wild type (WT) ovaries prepubertally into HSD17B1TG females. The results obtained in our non-clinical TG mouse model, together with a literature analysis, suggest that HSD17B1 has a role in ovarian epithelial carcinogenesis, and especially in the development of serous tumors. The role of androgens in ovarian carcinogenesis is considered controversial, but the present study provides further evidence for the androgen hypothesis. Moreover, it directly links HSD17B1-induced prenatal androgen exposure to ovarian epithelial carcinogenesis in mice. As expected, significant estrogenic activity was also detected for human HSD17B1. HSD17B1TG mice had enhanced peripheral conversion of E1 to E2 in a variety of target tissues, including the uterus. Furthermore, this activity was significantly decreased by treatments with specific HSD17B1 inhibitors. As a result, several estrogen-dependent disorders were found in HSD17B1TG females. Here we report that HSD17B1TG mice invariably developed endometrial hyperplasia and failed to ovulate in adulthood. As in humans, endometrial hyperplasia in HSD17B1TG females was reversible upon ovulation induction, triggering a rise in circulating progesterone levels, and in response to exogenous progestins. Remarkably, treatment with a HSD17B1 inhibitor failed to restore ovulation, yet completely reversed the hyperplastic morphology of epithelial cells in the glandular compartment. We also demonstrate that HSD17B1 is expressed in normal human endometrium, hyperplasia, and cancer. Collectively, our non-clinical data and literature analysis suggest that HSD17B1 inhibition could be one of several possible approaches to decrease endometrial estrogen production in endometrial hyperplasia and cancer. HSD17B1 expression has been found in bones of humans and rats. The non-clinical data in the present study suggest that human HSD17B1 is likely to have an important role in the regulation of bone formation, strength and length during reproductive years in female mice. Bone density in HSD17B1TG females was highly increased in femurs, but in lesser amounts also in tibias. Especially the tibia growth plate, but not other regions of bone, was susceptible to respond to HSD17B1 inhibition by increasing bone length, whereas the inhibitors did not affect bone density. Therefore, HSD17B1 inhibitors could be safer than aromatase inhibitors in regard to bone in the treatment of breast cancer and endometriosis. Furthermore, diseases related to improper growth, are a promising new indication for HSD17B1 inhibitors.

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Objectives: To examine the safety and effectiveness of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents compared with bare metal stents. Design: Individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Cox proportional regression models stratified by trial, containing random effects, were used to assess the impact of stent type on outcomes. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval for outcomes were reported. Data sources and study selection: Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomised controlled trials that compared cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents with bare metal stents were selected. The principal investigators whose trials met the inclusion criteria provided data for individual patients. Primary outcomes: The primary outcome was cardiac mortality. Secondary endpoints were myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, definite or probable stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularisation, and all cause death. Results: The search yielded five randomised controlled trials, comprising 4896 participants. Compared with patients receiving bare metal stents, participants receiving cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents had a significant reduction of cardiac mortality (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.91; P=0.01), myocardial infarction (0.71, 0.55 to 0.92; P=0.01), definite stent thrombosis (0.41, 0.22 to 0.76; P=0.005), definite or probable stent thrombosis (0.48, 0.31 to 0.73; P<0.001), and target vessel revascularisation (0.29, 0.20 to 0.41; P<0.001) at a median follow-up of 720 days. There was no significant difference in all cause death between groups (0.83, 0.65 to 1.06; P=0.14). Findings remained unchanged at multivariable regression after adjustment for the acuity of clinical syndrome (for instance, acute coronary syndrome v stable coronary artery disease), diabetes mellitus, female sex, use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors, and up to one year v longer duration treatment with dual antiplatelets. Conclusions: This meta-analysis offers evidence that compared with bare metal stents the use of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents improves global cardiovascular outcomes including cardiac survival, myocardial infarction, and overall stent thrombosis.

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Objectives: To examine the safety and effectiveness of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents compared with bare metal stents. Design: Individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Cox proportional regression models stratified by trial, containing random effects, were used to assess the impact of stent type on outcomes. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval for outcomes were reported. Data sources and study selection: Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomised controlled trials that compared cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents with bare metal stents were selected. The principal investigators whose trials met the inclusion criteria provided data for individual patients. Primary outcomes: The primary outcome was cardiac mortality. Secondary endpoints were myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, definite or probable stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularisation, and all cause death. Results: The search yielded five randomised controlled trials, comprising 4896 participants. Compared with patients receiving bare metal stents, participants receiving cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents had a significant reduction of cardiac mortality (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.91; P=0.01), myocardial infarction (0.71, 0.55 to 0.92; P=0.01), definite stent thrombosis (0.41, 0.22 to 0.76; P=0.005), definite or probable stent thrombosis (0.48, 0.31 to 0.73; P<0.001), and target vessel revascularisation (0.29, 0.20 to 0.41; P<0.001) at a median follow-up of 720 days. There was no significant difference in all cause death between groups (0.83, 0.65 to 1.06; P=0.14). Findings remained unchanged at multivariable regression after adjustment for the acuity of clinical syndrome (for instance, acute coronary syndrome v stable coronary artery disease), diabetes mellitus, female sex, use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors, and up to one year v longer duration treatment with dual antiplatelets. Conclusions: This meta-analysis offers evidence that compared with bare metal stents the use of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents improves global cardiovascular outcomes including cardiac survival, myocardial infarction, and overall stent thrombosis.

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This thesis focuses on tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases 4 (TIMP4) which is the newest member of a small gene and protein family of four closely related endogenous inhibitors of extracellular matrix (ECM) degrading enzymes. Existing data on TIMP4 suggested that it exhibits a more restricted expression pattern than the other TIMPs with high expression levels in heart, brain, ovary and skeletal muscle. These observations and the fact that the ECM is of special importance to provide the cardiovascular system with structural strength combined with elasticity and distensibility, prompted the present molecular biologic investigation on TIMP4. In the first part of the study the murine Timp4 gene was cloned and characterized in detail. The structure of murine Timp4 genomic locus resembles that in other species and of the other Timps. The highest Timp4 expression was detected in heart, ovary and brain. As the expression pattern of Timp4 gives only limited information about its role in physiology and pathology, Timp4 knockout mice were generated next. The analysis of Timp4 knockout mice revealed that Timp4 deficiency has no obvious effect on the development, growth or fertility of mice. Therefore, Timp4 deficient mice were challenged using available cardiovascular models, i.e. experimental cardiac pressure overload and myocardial infarction. In the former model, Timp4 deficiency was found to be compensated by Timp2 overexpression, whereas in the myocardial infarct model, Timp4 deficiency resulted in increased mortality due to increased susceptibility for cardiac rupture. In the wound healing model, Timp4 deficiency was shown to result in transient retardation of re-epithelialization of cutaneous wounds. Melanoma tumor growth was similar in Timp4 deficient and control mice. Despite of this, lung metastasis of melanoma cells was significantly increased in Timp4 null mice. In an attempt to translate the current findings to patient material, TIMP4 expression was studied in human specimens representing different inflammatory cardiovascular pathologies, i.e. giant cell arteritis, atherosclerotic coronary arteries and heart allografts exhibiting signs of chronic rejection. The results showed that cardiovascular expression of TIMP4 is elevated particularly in areas exhibiting inflammation. The results of the present studies suggest that TIMP4 has a special role in the regulation of tissue repair processes in the heart, and also in healing wounds and metastases. Furthermore, evidence is provided suggesting the usefulness of TIMP4 as a novel systemic marker for vascular inflammation.

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OBJECTIVE: To conduct a critical analysis of thoracotomies performed in the emergency rooms.METHODS: We analyzed mortality rates and survival as outcome variables, mechanism of injury, site of injury and anatomic injury as clinical variables, and gender and age as demographic variables of patients undergoing thoracotomy in the emergency room after traumatic injury.RESULTS: Of the 105 patients, 89.5% were male. The average age was 29.2 years. Penetrating trauma accounted for 81% of cases. The most common mechanism of trauma was wound by a firearm projectile (gunshot), in 64.7% of cases. Patients with stab wounds (SW) accounted for 16.2% of cases. Overall survival was 4.7%. Survival by gunshot was 1.4%, and by SW, 23.5%. The ERT following blunt trauma showed a 100%mortality.CONCLUSION: The results obtained in the Emergency Hospital of Porto Alegre POA-HPS are similar to those reported in the world literature.

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ABSTRACTObjective:to assess the impact of the shift inlet trauma patients, who underwent surgery, in-hospital mortality.Methods:a retrospective observational cohort study from November 2011 to March 2012, with data collected through electronic medical records. The following variables were statistically analyzed: age, gender, city of origin, marital status, admission to the risk classification (based on the Manchester Protocol), degree of contamination, time / admission round, admission day and hospital outcome.Results:during the study period, 563 patients injured victims underwent surgery, with a mean age of 35.5 years (± 20.7), 422 (75%) were male, with 276 (49.9%) received in the night shift and 205 (36.4%) on weekends. Patients admitted at night and on weekends had higher mortality [19 (6.9%) vs. 6 (2.2%), p=0.014, and 11 (5.4%) vs. 14 (3.9%), p=0.014, respectively]. In the multivariate analysis, independent predictors of mortality were the night admission (OR 3.15), the red risk classification (OR 4.87), and age (OR 1.17).Conclusion:the admission of night shift and weekend patients was associated with more severe and presented higher mortality rate. Admission to the night shift was an independent factor of surgical mortality in trauma patients, along with the red risk classification and age.

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Objective: To analyze the characteristics of trauma patients with renal lesions treated at a university hospital in Curitiba. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, cross-sectional study guided by review of medical records of trauma victims who underwent surgical treatment. The variables analyzed were age, gender, mechanism of injury, degree of kidney damage, conduct individualized according to the degree of renal injury, associated injuries, complications and deaths. We classified lesions according to the American Association of Trauma Surgery (TSAA). Results: We analyzed 794 records and found renal lesions in 33 patients, with mean age 29.8 years, most (87.8%) being male. Penetrating trauma accounted for 84.8% of cases. The most common renal injuries were grade II (33.3%), followed by grade I (18.1%), III, IV and V. Nephrectomy treated 45.4% of injuries, 73.3% being total nephrectomy, and 45.4% by nephrorraphy. In 9% treatment was non-surgical. Only 12.1% of patients had isolated renal lesions. Complications ensued in 15.1% and mortality was 6.06%. Conclusion: The surgical approach was preferred due to penetrating trauma mechanism. We achieved low rates of complications and deaths, and neither case could be directly related to kidney damage, and there were patients with multiple lesions. In this sample, we could not observe a direct relationship between kidney damage and complications, deaths or the type of conduct employed.

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Increased proteinuria is recognized as a risk predictor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in diabetic patients; however, no study has evaluated these relationships in Brazilian patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of gross proteinuria for all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities and for cardiovascular morbidity in a cohort study of 471 type 2 diabetic individuals followed for up to 7 years. Several clinical, laboratory and electrocardiographic variables were obtained at baseline. The relative risks for all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and for cardiovascular and cardiac events associated with the presence of overt proteinuria (>0.5 g/24 h) were assessed by Kaplan-Meier survival curves and by multivariate Cox regression model. During a median follow-up of 57 months (range 2-84 months), 121 patients (25.7%) died, 44 from cardiovascular and 30 from cardiac causes, and 106 fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events occurred. Gross proteinuria was an independent risk predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and of cardiovascular morbidity with adjusted relative risks ranging from 1.96 to 4.38 for the different endpoints. This increased risk remained significant after exclusion of patients with prior cardiovascular disease at baseline from the multivariate analysis. In conclusion, gross proteinuria was a strong predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and also of cardiovascular morbidity in a Brazilian cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. Intervention studies are necessary to determine whether the reduction of proteinuria can decrease morbidity and mortality of type 2 diabetes in Brazil.

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The objective of the present study was to determine the prevalence of electrolyte disturbances in AIDS patients developing acute kidney injury in the hospital setting, as well as to determine whether such disturbances constitute a risk factor for nephrotoxic and ischemic injury. A prospective, observational cohort study was carried out. Hospitalized AIDS patients were evaluated for age; gender; coinfection with hepatitis; diabetes mellitus; hypertension; time since HIV seroconversion; CD4 count; HIV viral load; proteinuria; serum levels of creatinine, urea, sodium, potassium and magnesium; antiretroviral use; nephrotoxic drug use; sepsis; intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and the need for dialysis. Each of these characteristics was correlated with the development of acute kidney injury, with recovery of renal function and with survival. Fifty-four patients developed acute kidney injury: 72% were males, 59% had been HIV-infected for >5 years, 72% had CD4 counts <200 cells/mm³, 87% developed electrolyte disturbances, 33% recovered renal function, and 56% survived. ICU admission, dialysis, sepsis and hypomagnesemia were all significantly associated with nonrecovery of renal function and with mortality. Nonrecovery of renal function was significantly associated with hypomagnesemia, as was mortality in the multivariate analysis. The risks for nonrecovery of renal function and for death were 6.94 and 6.92 times greater, respectively, for patients with hypomagnesemia. In hospitalized AIDS patients, hypomagnesemia is a risk factor for nonrecovery of renal function and for in-hospital mortality. To determine whether hypomagnesemia is a determinant or simply a marker of critical illness, further studies involving magnesium supplementation in AIDS patients are warranted.

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In this article, we compare two strategies for atherosclerosis treatment: drugs and healthy lifestyle. Statins are the principal drugs used for the treatment of atherosclerosis. Several secondary prevention studies have demonstrated that statins can significantly reduce cardiovascular events including coronary death, the need for surgical revascularization, stroke, total mortality, as well as fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction. These results were observed in both men and women, the elderly, smokers and non-smokers, diabetics and hypertensives. Primary prevention studies yielded similar results, although total mortality was not affected. Statins also induce atheroma regression and do not cause cancer. However, many unresolved issues remain, such as partial risk reduction, costs, several potential side effects, and long-term use by young patients. Statins act mainly as lipid-lowering drugs but pleiotropic actions are also present. Healthy lifestyle, on the other hand, is effective and inexpensive and has no harmful effects. Five items are associated with lower cardiac risk: non-smoking, BMI ≤25, regular exercise (30 min/day), healthy diet (fruits, vegetables, low-saturated fat, and 5-30 g alcohol/day). Nevertheless, there are difficulties in implementing these measures both at the individual and population levels. Changes in behavior require multidisciplinary care, including medical, nutritional, and psychological counseling. Participation of the entire society is required for such implementation, i.e., universities, schools, media, government, and medical societies. Although these efforts represent a major challenge, such a task must be faced in order to halt the atherosclerosis epidemic that threatens the world.