A systematic review and meta-analysis of Northern Hemisphere season of birth studies in schizophrenia

Based on the epidemiological finding that individuals with schizophrenia tend to be born in winter/spring when compared to the general population, we examined (1) the strength and timing of this effect in Northern Hemisphere sites, and (2) the correlation between the season of birth effect size and latitude. Studies were located via electronic data sources, published citations, and letters to authors. Inclusion criteria were that studies specify the diagnostic criteria used, that studies specify the counts of schizophrenia and general population births for each month, and that subjects and the general population be drawn from the same birth years and catchment area. We extracted data from eight studies based on 126,196 patients with schizophrenia and 86,605,807 general population births and drawn from 27 Northern Hemisphere sites. Comparing winter/spring versus summer/autumn births, we found a significant excess for winter/spring births (pooled odds ratio = 1.07; 95% confidence interval 1.05, 1.08; population attributable risk = 3.3%). There was a small but significant positive correlation between the odds ratios for the season of birth comparison and latitude (r = 0.271, p < 0.005). Furthermore, the shape of the seasonality in schizophrenia births varied by latitude band. These variations may encourage researchers to generate candidate seasonally fluctuating exposures.

Genetic and economic analysis of a targeted marker-assisted wheat breeding strategy

The advent of molecular markers as a tool to aid selection has provided plant breeders with the opportunity to rapidly deliver superior genetic solutions to problems in agricultural production systems. However, a major constraint to the implementation of marker-assisted selection (MAS) in pragmatic breeding programs in the past has been the perceived high relative cost of MAS compared to conventional phenotypic selection. In this paper, computer simulation was used to design a genetically effective and economically efficient marker-assisted breeding strategy aimed at a specific outcome. Under investigation was a strategy involving the integration of both restricted backcrossing and doubled haploid (DH) technology. The point at which molecular markers are applied in a selection strategy can be critical to the effectiveness and cost efficiency of that strategy. The application of molecular markers was considered at three phases in the strategy: allele enrichment in the BC1F1 population, gene selection at the haploid stage and the selection for recurrent parent background of DHs prior to field testing. Overall, incorporating MAS at all three stages was the most effective, in terms of delivering a high frequency of desired outcomes and at combining the selected favourable rust resistance, end use quality and grain yield alleles. However, when costs were included in the model the combination of MAS at the BC1F1 and haploid stage was identified as the optimal strategy. A detailed economic analysis showed that incorporation of marker selection at these two stages not only increased genetic gain over the phenotypic alternative but actually reduced the over all cost by 40%.

Theoretical and numerical analysis of large-scale heat transfer problems with temperature-dependent pore-fluid densities

Purpose - In many scientific and engineering fields, large-scale heat transfer problems with temperature-dependent pore-fluid densities are commonly encountered. For example, heat transfer from the mantle into the upper crust of the Earth is a typical problem of them. The main purpose of this paper is to develop and present a new combined methodology to solve large-scale heat transfer problems with temperature-dependent pore-fluid densities in the lithosphere and crust scales. Design/methodology/approach - The theoretical approach is used to determine the thickness and the related thermal boundary conditions of the continental crust on the lithospheric scale, so that some important information can be provided accurately for establishing a numerical model of the crustal scale. The numerical approach is then used to simulate the detailed structures and complicated geometries of the continental crust on the crustal scale. The main advantage in using the proposed combination method of the theoretical and numerical approaches is that if the thermal distribution in the crust is of the primary interest, the use of a reasonable numerical model on the crustal scale can result in a significant reduction in computer efforts. Findings - From the ore body formation and mineralization points of view, the present analytical and numerical solutions have demonstrated that the conductive-and-advective lithosphere with variable pore-fluid density is the most favorite lithosphere because it may result in the thinnest lithosphere so that the temperature at the near surface of the crust can be hot enough to generate the shallow ore deposits there. The upward throughflow (i.e. mantle mass flux) can have a significant effect on the thermal structure within the lithosphere. In addition, the emplacement of hot materials from the mantle may further reduce the thickness of the lithosphere. Originality/value - The present analytical solutions can be used to: validate numerical methods for solving large-scale heat transfer problems; provide correct thermal boundary conditions for numerically solving ore body formation and mineralization problems on the crustal scale; and investigate the fundamental issues related to thermal distributions within the lithosphere. The proposed finite element analysis can be effectively used to consider the geometrical and material complexities of large-scale heat transfer problems with temperature-dependent fluid densities.

Pathological complete response and residual DCIS following neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast carcinoma

Patients who have no residual invasive cancer following neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast carcinoma have a better overall survival than those with residual disease. Many classification systems assessing pathological response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy include residual ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) only in the definition of pathological complete response. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether patients with residual DCIS only have the same prognosis as those with no residual invasive or in situ disease. A retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database identified 435 patients, who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy for operable breast cancer between February 1985 and February 2003. Of these, 30 (7%; 95% CI 5-9%) had no residual invasive disease or DCIS and 20 (5%; CI 3-7%) had residual DCIS only. With a median follow-up of 61 months, there was no statistical difference in disease-free survival, 80% (95% CI 60-90%) in those with no residual invasive or in situ disease and 61% (95% CI 35-80%) in those with DCIS only (P = 0.4). No significant difference in 5-year overall survival was observed, 93% (95% CI 75-98%) in those with no residual invasive or in situ disease and 82% (95% CI 52-94%) in those with DCIS only (P = 0.3). Due to the small number of patients and limited number of events in each group, it is not possible to draw definitive conclusions from this study. Further analyses of other databases are required to confirm our finding of no difference in disease-free and overall survival between patients with residual DCIS and those with no invasive or in situ disease following neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer.

Imaging, anatomical, and molecular analysis of callosal formation in the developing human fetal brain

A complex set of axonal guidance mechanisms are utilized by axons to locate and innervate their targets. In the developing mouse forebrain, we previously described several midline glial populations as well as various guidance molecules that regulate the formation of the corpus callosum. Since agenesis of the corpus callosum is associated with over 50 different human congenital syndromes, we wanted to investigate whether these same mechanisms also operate during human callosal development. Here we analyze midline glial and commissural development in human fetal brains ranging from 13 to 20 weeks of gestation using both diffusion tensor magnetic resonance imaging and immunohistochemistry. Through our combined radiological and histological studies, we demonstrate the morphological development of multiple forebrain commissures/decussations, including the corpus callosum, anterior commissure, hippocampal commissure, and the optic chiasm. Histological analyses demonstrated that all the midline glial populations previously described in mouse, as well as structures analogous to the subcallosal sling and cingulate pioneering axons, that mediate callosal axon guidance in mouse, are also present during human brain development. Finally, by Northern blot analysis, we have identified that molecules involved in mouse callosal development, including Slit, Robo, Netrin1, DCC, Nfia, Emx1, and GAP-43, are all expressed in human fetal brain. These data suggest that similar mechanisms and molecules required for midline commissure formation operate during both mouse and human brain development. Thus, the mouse is an excellent model system for studying normal and pathological commissural formation in human brain development. (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

An automated failure mode and effect analysis based on high-level design specificication with behavior trees

Formal methods have significant benefits for developing safety critical systems, in that they allow for correctness proofs, model checking safety and liveness properties, deadlock checking, etc. However, formal methods do not scale very well and demand specialist skills, when developing real-world systems. For these reasons, development and analysis of large-scale safety critical systems will require effective integration of formal and informal methods. In this paper, we use such an integrative approach to automate Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), a widely used system safety analysis technique, using a high-level graphical modelling notation (Behavior Trees) and model checking. We inject component failure modes into the Behavior Trees and translate the resulting Behavior Trees to SAL code. This enables us to model check if the system in the presence of these faults satisfies its safety properties, specified by temporal logic formulas. The benefit of this process is tool support that automates the tedious and error-prone aspects of FMEA.

Intelligent execution monitoring and error analysis in planning involving processes

An intelligent agent, operating in an external world which cannot be fully described in its internal world model, must be able to monitor the success of a previously generated plan and to respond to any errors which may have occurred. The process of error analysis requires the ability to reason in an expert fashion about time and about processes occurring in the world. Reasoning about time is needed to deal with causality. Reasoning about processes is needed since the direct effects of a plan action can be completely specified when the plan is generated, but the indirect effects cannot. For example, the action `open tap' leads with certainty to `tap open', whereas whether there will be a fluid flow and how long it might last is more difficult to predict. The majority of existing planning systems cannot handle these kinds of reasoning, thus limiting their usefulness. This thesis argues that both kinds of reasoning require a complex internal representation of the world. The use of Qualitative Process Theory and an interval-based representation of time are proposed as a representation scheme for such a world model. The planning system which was constructed has been tested on a set of realistic planning scenarios. It is shown that even simple planning problems, such as making a cup of coffee, require extensive reasoning if they are to be carried out successfully. The final Chapter concludes that the planning system described does allow the correct solution of planning problems involving complex side effects, which planners up to now have been unable to solve.

Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

Phenotypic and genotypic analysis of intestinal spirochacies

Pulsed field gel electrophoresis of 82 intestinal spirochaete isolates showed specific differentiation of Serpulina pilosicoli and Serpulina hyodysenteriae although considerable heterogeneity was observed, especially amongst S. pilosicoli isolates. In several cases genotypically similar isolates originated from different animals suggesting that cross-species transmission may have occurred. The Caco-2 and Caco-21HT29 cell models have been proposed as potentially realistic models of intestinal infection. Quantitation of adhesion to the cells showed isolate 3 82/91 (from a bacteraemia) to adhere at significantly greater numbers than any other isolate tested. This isolate produced a PFGE profile which differed from other S. pilosicoli isolates and so would be of interest for further study. Comparison of bacteraemic and other S. pilosicoli isolates suggested that bacteraemic isolates were not more specifically adapted for adhesion to, or invasion of the epithelial cell layer than other S. pilosicoli isolates. Genotypically similar isolates from differing animal origins adhered to the Caco-2 model at similar levels. Generation of a random genomic library of S. pilosicoli and screening with species specific monoclonal antibody has enabled the identification of a gene sequence encoding a protein which showed significant homology with an ancestral form of the enzyme pyruvate oxidoreductase. Immunoscreening with polyclonal serum identified the sequences of two gene clusters and a probable arylsulphatase. One gene cluster represented a ribosomal gene cluster which has a similar molecular arrangement to Borrelia burgdorjeri, Treponema pallidum and Thermatoga maritima. The other gene cluster contained an ABC transporter protein, sorbitol dehydrogenase and phosphomannose isomerase. An ELISA type assay was used to demonstrate that isolates of S. pilosicoli could adhere to components of the extracellular matrix such as collagen (type 1), fibronectin, laminin, and porcine gastric mucin.

Numerical and statistical analysis of long-haul undersea optical communication systems

Firstly, we numerically model a practical 20 Gb/s undersea configuration employing the Return-to-Zero Differential Phase Shift Keying data format. The modelling is completed using the Split-Step Fourier Method to solve the Generalised Nonlinear Schrdinger Equation. We optimise the dispersion map and per-channel launch power of these channels and investigate how the choice of pre/post compensation can influence the performance. After obtaining these optimal configurations, we investigate the Bit Error Rate estimation of these systems and we see that estimation based on Gaussian electrical current systems is appropriate for systems of this type, indicating quasi-linear behaviour. The introduction of narrower pulses due to the deployment of quasi-linear transmission decreases the tolerance to chromatic dispersion and intra-channel nonlinearity. We used tools from Mathematical Statistics to study the behaviour of these channels in order to develop new methods to estimate Bit Error Rate. In the final section, we consider the estimation of Eye Closure Penalty, a popular measure of signal distortion. Using a numerical example and assuming the symmetry of eye closure, we see that we can simply estimate Eye Closure Penalty using Gaussian statistics. We also see that the statistics of the logical ones dominates the statistics of the logical ones dominates the statistics of signal distortion in the case of Return-to-Zero On-Off Keying configurations.

Liposome formulation of poorly water soluble drugs:optimisation of drug loading and ESEM analysis of stability

Liposomes due to their biphasic characteristic and diversity in design, composition and construction, offer a dynamic and adaptable technology for enhancing drug solubility. Starting with equimolar egg-phosphatidylcholine (PC)/cholesterol liposomes, the influence of the liposomal composition and surface charge on the incorporation and retention of a model poorly water soluble drug, ibuprofen was investigated. Both the incorporation and the release of ibuprofen were influenced by the lipid composition of the multi-lamellar vesicles (MLV) with inclusion of the long alkyl chain lipid (dilignoceroyl phosphatidylcholine (C 24PC)) resulting in enhanced ibuprofen incorporation efficiency and retention. The cholesterol content of the liposome bilayer was also shown to influence ibuprofen incorporation with maximum ibuprofen incorporation efficiency achieved when 4 μmol of cholesterol was present in the MLV formulation. Addition of anionic lipid dicetylphosphate (DCP) reduced ibuprofen drug loading presumably due to electrostatic repulsive forces between the carboxyl group of ibuprofen and the anionic head-group of DCP. In contrast, the addition of 2 μmol of the cationic lipid stearylamine (SA) to the liposome formulation (PC:Chol - 16 μmol:4 μmol) increased ibuprofen incorporation efficiency by approximately 8%. However further increases of the SA content to 4 μmol and above reduced incorporation by almost 50% compared to liposome formulations excluding the cationic lipid. Environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM) was used to dynamically follow the changes in liposome morphology during dehydration to provide an alternative assay of liposome stability. ESEM analysis clearly demonstrated that ibuprofen incorporation improved the stability of PC:Chol liposomes as evidenced by an increased resistance to coalescence during dehydration. These finding suggest a positive interaction between amphiphilic ibuprofen molecules and the bilayer structure of the liposome. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Techno-economic assessment and uncertainty analysis of thermochemical processes for second generation biofuels

Biomass-To-Liquid (BTL) is one of the most promising low carbon processes available to support the expanding transportation sector. This multi-step process produces hydrocarbon fuels from biomass, the so-called “second generation biofuels” that, unlike first generation biofuels, have the ability to make use of a wider range of biomass feedstock than just plant oils and sugar/starch components. A BTL process based on gasification has yet to be commercialized. This work focuses on the techno-economic feasibility of nine BTL plants. The scope was limited to hydrocarbon products as these can be readily incorporated and integrated into conventional markets and supply chains. The evaluated BTL systems were based on pressurised oxygen gasification of wood biomass or bio-oil and they were characterised by different fuel synthesis processes including: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, the Methanol to Gasoline (MTG) process and the Topsoe Integrated Gasoline (TIGAS) synthesis. This was the first time that these three fuel synthesis technologies were compared in a single, consistent evaluation. The selected process concepts were modelled using the process simulation software IPSEpro to determine mass balances, energy balances and product distributions. For each BTL concept, a cost model was developed in MS Excel to estimate capital, operating and production costs. An uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo statistical method, was also carried out to examine how the uncertainty in the input parameters of the cost model could affect the output (i.e. production cost) of the model. This was the first time that an uncertainty analysis was included in a published techno-economic assessment study of BTL systems. It was found that bio-oil gasification cannot currently compete with solid biomass gasification due to the lower efficiencies and higher costs associated with the additional thermal conversion step of fast pyrolysis. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis was the most promising fuel synthesis technology for commercial production of liquid hydrocarbon fuels since it achieved higher efficiencies and lower costs than TIGAS and MTG. None of the BTL systems were competitive with conventional fossil fuel plants. However, if government tax take was reduced by approximately 33% or a subsidy of £55/t dry biomass was available, transport biofuels could be competitive with conventional fuels. Large scale biofuel production may be possible in the long term through subsidies, fuels price rises and legislation.

Population pharmacokinetic and pharmacogenetic analysis of 6-mercaptopurine in paediatric patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT • The cytotoxic effects of 6-mercaptopurine (6-MP) were found to be due to drug-derived intracellular metabolites (mainly 6-thioguanine nucleotides and to some extent 6-methylmercaptopurine nucleotides) rather than the drug itself. • Current empirical dosing methods for oral 6-MP result in highly variable drug and metabolite concentrations and hence variability in treatment outcome. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS • The first population pharmacokinetic model has been developed for 6-MP active metabolites in paediatric patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia and the potential demographic and genetically controlled factors that could lead to interpatient pharmacokinetic variability among this population have been assessed. • The model shows a large reduction in interindividual variability of pharmacokinetic parameters when body surface area and thiopurine methyltransferase polymorphism are incorporated into the model as covariates. • The developed model offers a more rational dosing approach for 6-MP than the traditional empirical method (based on body surface area) through combining it with pharmacogenetically guided dosing based on thiopurine methyltransferase genotype. AIMS - To investigate the population pharmacokinetics of 6-mercaptopurine (6-MP) active metabolites in paediatric patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and examine the effects of various genetic polymorphisms on the disposition of these metabolites. METHODS - Data were collected prospectively from 19 paediatric patients with ALL (n = 75 samples, 150 concentrations) who received 6-MP maintenance chemotherapy (titrated to a target dose of 75 mg m−2 day−1). All patients were genotyped for polymorphisms in three enzymes involved in 6-MP metabolism. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed with the nonlinear mixed effects modelling program (nonmem) to determine the population mean parameter estimate of clearance for the active metabolites. RESULTS - The developed model revealed considerable interindividual variability (IIV) in the clearance of 6-MP active metabolites [6-thioguanine nucleotides (6-TGNs) and 6-methylmercaptopurine nucleotides (6-mMPNs)]. Body surface area explained a significant part of 6-TGNs clearance IIV when incorporated in the model (IIV reduced from 69.9 to 29.3%). The most influential covariate examined, however, was thiopurine methyltransferase (TPMT) genotype, which resulted in the greatest reduction in the model's objective function (P < 0.005) when incorporated as a covariate affecting the fractional metabolic transformation of 6-MP into 6-TGNs. The other genetic covariates tested were not statistically significant and therefore were not included in the final model. CONCLUSIONS - The developed pharmacokinetic model (if successful at external validation) would offer a more rational dosing approach for 6-MP than the traditional empirical method since it combines the current practice of using body surface area in 6-MP dosing with a pharmacogenetically guided dosing based on TPMT genotype.

Leontief Model Analysis with Fuzzy Parameters by Basic Matrixes Method

The basic matrixes method is suggested for the Leontief model analysis (LM) with some of its components indistinctly given. LM can be construed as a forecast task of product’s expenses-output on the basis of the known statistic information at indistinctly given several elements’ meanings of technological matrix, restriction vector and variables’ limits. Elements of technological matrix, right parts of restriction vector LM can occur as functions of some arguments. In this case the task’s dynamic analog occurs. LM essential complication lies in inclusion of variables restriction and criterion function in it.