Hiánygazdaság − többletgazdaság. Tanulmány a piac elméletéről – II. rész = Shortage economy - surplus economy. A study on market theory II

A főáramlat közgazdászai elismerik, hogy a szocialista rendszert a krónikus hiány jellemezte, de úgy vélik, hogy a kapitalista rendszerben - kisebb vagy nagyobb ingadozások közepette - piaci egyensúly uralkodik. Ezzel szemben a tanulmány két piaci állapotot állít egymással szembe. Az egyikben dominálnak a túlkeresleti jelenségek, bár előfordulnak túlkínálati jelenségek is, ezt nevezi a szerző hiánygazdaságnak. A másikban dominálnak a túlkínálati jelenségek, bár előfordulnak túlkeresleti jelenségek is, amit a szerző többletgazdaságnak nevez. A tanulmány II. része összefoglalja a tanulmány fő állításait. Ezek szerint a szocialista rendszer veleszületett immanens tulajdonsága a hiánygazdaság, míg a kapitalista rendszer veleszületett immanens tulajdonsága a többletgazdaság létrehozása és állandó reprodukciója. Állami beavatkozások erősíthetik vagy gyengíthetik ezeket a genetikus tulajdonságokat, de nem szüntethetik meg. A tanulmány áttekinti a többletgazdaság kedvező és kedvezőtlen hatásait. A kedvező hatások között különleges nyomatékkal emeli ki, hogy a többlet (elsősorban többletkapacitások) nélkül nem alakulhat ki a termelők, illetve az eladók rivalizálása, ami az innovációs folyamat legfontosabb hajtóereje. A többletgazdaság általános esetének vizsgálata után különböző speciális esetekkel foglalkozik a tanulmány: a gazdaság konjunkturális hullámzásával, a hadigazdasággal, a modern kapitalizmusban mutatkozó történelmi léptékű változásokkal, valamint a szocialista rendszeren belül megjelent piacorientált reformokkal és a posztszocialista átmenettel. ____ Mainstream economists recognize that the socialist system was marked by chronic shortage, but they consider that the capitalist system exhibits market equilibrium, give or take some greater or lesser fluctuations. This study, however, contrasts two market states. One is dominated by phenomena of excess demand, though instances of excess supply appear as well; this the author calls a shortage economy. The other is dominated by phenomena of excess supply, though instances of excess demand appear as well; this the author terms a surplus economy. Part II of the study starts by summing up its main propositions. Just as the shortage economy is an intrinsic, immanent trait of the socialist system, so the creation and continual reproduction of the surplus economy is an intrinsic, immanent trait of the capitalist system. Such genetic traits may be strengthened or weakened by state intervention, but not eliminated by it. The study reviews the favourable and detrimental effects of the surplus economy. Of the favourable effects, it is emphasized that without surplus there cannot develop among producers or sellers the rivalry that provides the main impetus for the innovation process. Having examined the general case of the surplus economy, the study turns to various special cases: to the trade-cycle fluctuations of the economy, the war economy, the historic changes appearing in modern capitalism, the market-oriented reforms that appear within the socialist system, and the post-socialist transition.

Small farmer market knowledge and specialty coffee commodity chains in Western Highlands Guatemala

For producers motivated by their new status as self-employed, landowning, capitalist coffee growers, specialty coffee presents an opportunity to proactively change the way they participate in the international market. Now responsible for determining their own path, many producers have jumped at the chance to enhance the value of their product and participate in the new "fair trade" market. But recent trends in the international coffee price have led many producers to wonder why their efforts to produce a certified Fair Trade and organic product are not generating the price advantage they had anticipated. My study incorporates data collected in eighteen months of fieldwork, including more than 45 interviews with coffee producers and fair trade roasters, 90 surveys of coffee growers, and ongoing participant observation to understand how fair trade certification, as both a market system and development program, meets the expectations of the coffee growers. By comparing three coffee cooperatives that have engaged the Fair Trade system to disparate ends, the results of this investigation are three case studies that demonstrate how global processes of certification, commodity trade, market interaction, and development aid effect social and cultural change within communities. This study frames several lessons learned in terms of (1) socioeconomic impacts of fair trade, (2) characteristics associated with positive development encounters, and (3) potential for commodity producers to capture value further along their global value chain. Commodity chain comparisons indicate the Fair Trade certified cooperative receives the highest per-pound price, though these findings are complicated by costs associate with certification and producers' perceptions of an "unjust" system. Fair trade-supported projects are demonstrated as more "successful" in the eyes of recipients, though their attention to detail can just as easily result in "failure". Finally, survey results reveal just how limited is the market knowledge of producers in each cooperative, though fair trade does, in fact, provide a rare opportunity for producers to learn about consumer demand for coffee quality. Though bittersweet, the fair trade experiences described here present a learning opportunity for a wide range of audiences, from the certified to the certifiers to the concerned public and conscientious consumer.

The Italian Response to the Growing U.S. Wine Demand

Americans are learning more about wines and consuming them in increasingly greater quantities. Italian wines have experienced a tremendous growth in their share of the U. S. market during the last decade. This article analyzes the marketing and success of the wines of Italy with the American consumer.

A Look Back To Look Forward: New Patterns In The Supply/Demand Equation In The Lodging Industry

In his dialogue entitled - A Look Back to Look Forward: New Patterns In The Supply/Demand Equation In The Lodging Industry - by Albert J. Gomes, Senior Principal, Pannell Kerr Forster, Washington, D.C. What the author intends for you to know is the following: “Factors which influence the lodging industry in the United States are changing that industry as far as where hotels are being located, what clientele is being served, and what services are being provided at different facilities. The author charts these changes and makes predictions for the future.” Gomes initially alludes to the evolution of transportation – the human, animal, mechanical progression - and how those changes, in the last 100 years or so, have had a significant impact on the hotel industry. “A look back to look forward treats the past as prologue. American hoteliers are in for some startling changes in their business,” Gomes says. “The man who said that the three most important determinants for the success of a hotel were “location, location, location” did a lot of good only in the short run.” Gomes wants to make you aware of the existence of what he calls, “locational obsolescence.” “Locational obsolescence is a fact of life, and at least in the United States bears a direct correlation to evolutionary changes in transportation technology,” he says. “…the primary business of the hospitality industry is to serve travelers or people who are being transported,” Gomes expands the point. Tied to the transportation element, the author also points out an interesting distinction between hotels and motels. In addressing, “…what clientele is being served, and what services are being provided at different facilities,” Gomes suggests that the transportation factor influences these constituents as well. Also coupled with this discussion are oil prices and shifts in transportation habits, with reference to airline travel being an ever increasing method of travel; capturing much of the inter-city travel market. Gomes refers to airline deregulation as an impetus. The point being, it’s a fluid market rather than a static one, and [successful] hospitality properties need to be cognizant of market dynamics and be able to adjust to the variables in their marketplace. Gomes provides many facts and figures to bolster his assertions. Interestingly and perceptively, at the time of this writing, Gomes alludes to America’s deteriorating road and bridge network. As of right now, in 2009, this is a major issue. Gomes rounds out this study by comparing European hospitality trends to those in the U.S.

Toward A Better Understanding of the Evolution of Hotel Development: A Discussion of Product-specific Lodging Demand

In his essay - Toward a Better Understanding of the Evolution of Hotel Development: A Discussion of Product-Specific Lodging Demand - by John A. Carnella, Consultant, Laventhol & Horwath, cpas, New York, Carnella initially describes his piece by stating: “The diversified hotel product in the united states lodging market has Resulted in latent room-night demand, or supply-driven demand resulting from the introduction of a lodging product which caters to a specific set of hotel patrons. The subject has become significant as the lodging market has moved toward segmentation with regard to guest room offerings. The author proposes that latent demand is a tangible, measurable phenomenon best understood in light of the history of the guest room product from its infancy to its present state.” The article opens with an ephemeral depiction of hotel development in the United States, both pre’ and post World War II. To put it succinctly, the author wants you to know that the advent of the inter-state highway system changed the complexion of the hotel industry in the U.S. “Two essential ingredients were necessary for the next phase of hotel development in this country. First was the establishment of the magnificently intricate infrastructure which facilitated motor vehicle transportation in and around the then 48 states of the nation,” says Carnella. “The second event…was the introduction of affordable highway travel. Carnella goes on to say that the next – big thing – in hotel evolution was the introduction of affordable air travel. “With the airways filled with potential lodging guests, developers moved next to erect a new genre of hotel, the airport hotel,” Carnella advances his picture. Growth progressed with the arrival of the suburban hotel concept, which wasn’t fueled by developments in transportation, but by changes in people’s living habits, i.e. suburban affiliations as opposed to urban and city population aggregates. The author explores the distinctions between full-service and limited service lodging operations. “The market of interest with consideration to the extended-stay facility is one dominated by corporate office parks,” Carnella proceeds. These evolutional states speak to latent demand, and even further to segmentation of the market. “Latent demand… is a product-generated phenomenon in which the number of potential hotel guests increases as the direct result of the introduction of a new lodging facility,” Carnella brings his unique insight to the table with regard to the specialization process. The demand is already there; just waiting to be tapped. In closing, “…there must be a consideration of the unique attributes of a lodging facility relative to its ability to attract guests to a subject market, just as there must be an examination of the property's ability to draw guests from within the subject market,” Carnella proposes.

An empirical analysis of the global audit market: International Financial Reporting Standards-related changes and differences within the Big 4 global networks

Ongoing debates within the professional and academic communities have raised a number of questions specific to the international audit market. This dissertation consists of three related essays that address such issues. First, I examine whether the propensity to switch between auditors of different sizes (i.e., Big 4 versus non-Big 4) changes as adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) becomes a more common phenomenon, arguing that smaller auditors have an opportunity to invest in necessary skills and training needed to enter this market. Findings suggest that clients are relatively less (more) likely to switch to (away from) a Big 4 auditor if the client's adoption of IFRS occurs in more recent years. ^ In the second essay, I draw on these inferences and test whether the change in audit fees in the year of IFRS adoption changes over time. As the market becomes less concentrated, larger auditors becomes less able to demand a premium for their services. Consistent with my arguments, results suggest that the change in audit service fees declines over time, although this effect seems concentrated among the Big 4. I also find that this effect is partially attributable to a differential effect of the auditors' experience in pricing audit services related to IFRS based on the period in which adoption occurs. The results of these two essays offer important implications to policy debates on the costs and benefits of IFRS adoption. ^ In the third essay, I differentiate Big 4 auditors into three classifications—Parent firms, Brand Name affiliates, and Local affiliates—and test for differences in audit fee premiums (relative to non-Big 4 auditors) and audit quality. Results suggest that there is significant heterogeneity between the three classifications based on both of these characteristics, which is an important consideration for future research. Overall, this dissertation provides additional insights into a variety of aspects of the global audit market.^

A study of the top executive conference centers in the United States and an examination of the corresponding corporate meetings market

Introduction: The United States today has become "meeting-conscious." The complexity of conducting business has led to the need for sophisticated coordination of decision-making processes on all levels of the organization. Company meetings have played an increasingly important role in the success and future of many companies. Strategies and decisions are developed at meetings that can determine future policies of crucial importance. Executive training can mean the difference in whether the company will even survive. Large and growing companies have increased their off-premise meeting budgets annually in spite of the state of the economy. however, the rising costs of travel and lodging have made management monitor these budgets more closely than ever. Thus, the need to use every dollar efficiently has compelled companies to examine newer methods of running meetings and alternatives to the usage of typical off-premise meeting facilities. The importance of off-premise meetings in the United States economy has greatly increased due to the billions of dollars spent annually. These factors make it vital to explore the effectiveness of time and monetary expenditures. Up until the mid-1960's, company meetings were held in facilities of various design and purpose, none of which were specifically designed for the small to medium corporate meeting. Upon gathering information concerning the meetings market and the corporate meeting planner, certain individuals endeavored to change the situation. This study is designed to investigate this new concept, which will hereafter be referred to as "conference center." For the purpose of this study, the following two definitions will be used. 1. Conference center - that meeting facility primarily marketing its facilities for the small to medium-sized corporate meeting. The center is operated by specialists aware of market needs in as much detail as are those people working for the company involved. On-premise sleeping rooms are not mandatory provided such facilities are within easy access. 2. Meeting planner - that person within an organization who has primary responsibility for arranging off-premise meetings and all other related items necessary for meeting effectiveness. This person may spend anywhere from 10 to 100l of his time in this capacity. The conference center has effectively satisfied the need for specialized corporate meeting facilities. This study will show the depth of the corporate meetings market and trace the growth and development of this relatively new conference center concept. Information will also be compiled on the top centers in the country. It is hoped that by presenting this research meeting planners will become more aware of the nature and location of these centers, especially for use by the small to medium-sized company. Such exposure of the centers will hopefully increase existing demand and enable the construction of new, innovative centers.

Essays on Job Search and Labor Market Dynamics

This dissertation consists of three separate essays on job search and labor market dynamics. In the first essay, “The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Job Creation: Evidence from Firm Level Data”, I study how much changes in labor market conditions reduce employment fluctuations over the business cycle. Changes in labor market conditions make hiring more expensive during expansions and cheaper during recessions, creating counter-cyclical incentives for job creation. I estimate firm level elasticities of labor demand with respect to changes in labor market conditions, considering two margins: changes in labor market tightness and changes in wages. Using employer-employee matched data from Brazil, I find that all firms are more sensitive to changes in wages rather than labor market tightness, and there is substantial heterogeneity in labor demand elasticity across regions. Based on these results, I demonstrate that changes in labor market conditions reduce the variance of employment growth over the business cycle by 20% in a median region, and this effect is equally driven by changes along each margin. Moreover, I show that the magnitude of the effect of labor market conditions on employment growth can be significantly affected by economic policy. In particular, I document that the rapid growth of the national minimum wages in Brazil in 1997-2010 amplified the impact of the change in labor market conditions during local expansions and diminished this impact during local recessions.

In the second essay, “A Framework for Estimating Persistence of Local Labor

Demand Shocks”, I propose a decomposition which allows me to study the persistence of local labor demand shocks. Persistence of labor demand shocks varies across industries, and the incidence of shocks in a region depends on the regional industrial composition. As a result, less diverse regions are more likely to experience deeper shocks, but not necessarily more long lasting shocks. Building on this idea, I propose a decomposition of local labor demand shocks into idiosyncratic location shocks and nationwide industry shocks and estimate the variance and the persistence of these shocks using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) in 1990-2013.

In the third essay, “Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Continuous- Time Job Search Models”, co-authored with Peter Arcidiacono and Arnaud Maurel, we propose a novel, computationally feasible method of estimating non-stationary job search models. Non-stationary job search models arise in many applications, where policy change can be anticipated by the workers. The most prominent example of such policy is the expiration of unemployment benefits. However, estimating these models still poses a considerable computational challenge, because of the need to solve a differential equation numerically at each step of the optimization routine. We overcome this challenge by adopting conditional choice probability methods, widely used in dynamic discrete choice literature, to job search models and show how the hazard rate out of unemployment and the distribution of the accepted wages, which can be estimated in many datasets, can be used to infer the value of unemployment. We demonstrate how to apply our method by analyzing the effect of the unemployment benefit expiration on duration of unemployment using the data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) in 1996-2007.

Review of virtual power plant applications for the power system management and V2G market development

Utilization of renewable energy sources and energy storage systems is increasing with fostering new policies on energy industries. However, the increase of distributed generation hinders the reliability of power systems. In order to stabilize them, a virtual power plant emerges as a novel power grid management system. The VPP has a role to make a participation of different distributed energy resources and energy storage systems. This paper defines core technology of the VPP which are demand response and ancillary service concerning about Korea, America and Europe cases. It also suggests application solutions of the VPP to V2G market for restructuring national power industries in Korea.

Micro-Foundations of Financialization. Status Anxiety and the Market for Consumer Credit in Chile

This project investigates why people in Chile acquired so much consumer debt in contexts of material prosperity, and asks what the role of inequality and commodification is in this process. The case raises an important challenge to the literature. Insofar as existing accounts assume that the financialization of consumption occurs in contexts marked by wage stagnation and a general deterioration of the middle classes, they engender two contradictory explanations: while political economists argue that people use credit in order to smooth their consumption in the face of market volatility, economists maintain that concentration of wealth at the top pushes middle income consumers to emulate the expenditures of the rich and consume beyond their means. These explanations do not necessarily fit the reality of developing countries. Triangulating in-depth interviews with middle class families, multivariate statistical analysis and secondary literature, the project shows that consumers in Chile use credit to finance “ordinary” forms of consumption that do not aim either at coping with market instability or emulating and signaling status to others. Rather, Chileans use department store credit cards in order to acquire a standard package of “inconspicuous” goods that they feel entitled to have. From this point of view, the systematic indebtedness of consumers originates in a major concern with “rank”, “achievement” and "security" that – following De Botton -- I call “status anxiety”. Status anxiety does not stem from the desire to emulate rich consumers, but from the impossibility of complying with normative expectations about what a middle class family should be (and have) that outweigh wage improvements. The project thus investigates the way in which “status anxiety” is systematically reproduced by means of two broad mechanisms that prompt people to acquire consumer debt. The first mechanism generating debt stems from an increase of real wages and high levels of inequality. It is explained by a general sociological principle known as relative deprivation, which points to the fact that general satisfaction with one´s income, possessions or status, is assessed not in absolute terms such as total income, but in relation with reference groups. In this sense, I explore the mechanisms that operate as catalyzers of relative deprivation, by making explicit social inequalities and distorting the perception of others´ wealth. Despite upward mobility and economic improvement, Chileans share the perception of “falling behind,” which materializes in an “imaginary middle class” against which people compare their status, possessions and economic independence. Finally, I show that the commodification of education, health and pension funds does not directly prompt people to acquire consumer debt, but operate as “income draining” mechanisms that demand higher shares of middle class families’ “discretionary income.” In combination with “relative deprivation,” these “income draining” mechanisms leave families with few options to perform their desired class identities, other than learning how to bring resources from the future into the present with the help of department store credit cards.

Market work and household production in Brazil

This thesis is composed of three papers in which the research questions are related to the double burden that accrues to Brazilian women. The first and second papers address this issue by looking at expenditure decisions about home production. The first paper examines whether the expenditure decisions about production goods, such as white appliances, relative to entertainment goods, such as TVs, are the outcome of a bargaining process between husbands and wives. The second paper looks at the demand for maid services and for production durable goods, examining the extent to which other household members substitute for maid services and durable goods in home production. The third paper addresses the effects of Brazilian women's double burden on their labor market participation by examining whether the occupational choice of Brazilian women is affected by their gender roles and whether entry into other occupations that are not identified as female occupations has become easier since the introduction of anti-discrimination laws in the labor market. The first paper combines two Brazilian data sets: a Brazilian household expenditure survey, Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiares (POF), and a Brazilian household survey, Pesquisa Nacional Por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD). The results of the first paper indicate that the decision about durable goods ownership is the outcome of a bargaining process between husband and wife. The test on the coefficients of the marriage market variable and the indicators of households in which only the wife and households in which only the husband makes expenditure decisions corroborate the expectations about wives' preferences for production goods. The same data sets as the first paper are used in the second paper. The finding of the second paper indicates that if the marriage market is favorable to women, that is if the ratio of women to men goes from 1.07 to 0.96, the increment in the household probability of owning at least one maid's substitute durable goods is equivalent to 24% the impact of moving a household up one income quintile. Moreover, the results indicate that daughters' time substitutes for wives' time and maid services in home production. Parents may want daughters trained in home production to be able to perform their future role as wives. However, this training comes at a cost to daughters' investment in formal education, narrowing their future career options. The data used in the third paper come from a Brazilian household survey, Pesquisa Nacional Por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD). Gender roles are responsible for women to choose female-dominated occupations, married women are 1.14 times more likely to work in female-dominated occupations and having a child six years and older increases on average by 12% the probability that women work in female-dominated occupations instead of genderintegrated occupations in 2001. However, it becomes easier for all types of women to enter into male-dominated and gender-integrated occupations in 2001 compared to 1981.

Effects of Information and Time of Use Pricing on Irish Electricity Demand and Supply

In this dissertation I quantify residential behavior response to interventions designed to reduce electricity demand at different periods of the day. In the first chapter, I examine the effect of information provision coupled with bimonthly billing, monthly billing, and in-home displays, as well as a time-of-use (TOU) pricing scheme to measure consumption over each month of the Irish Consumer Behavior Trial. I find that time-of-use pricing with real time usage information reduces electricity usage up to 8.7 percent during peak times at the start of the trial but the effect decays over the first three months and after three months the in-home display group is indistinguishable from the monthly treatment group. Monthly and bi-monthly billing treatments are not found to be statistically different from another. These findings suggest that increasing billing reports to the monthly level may be more cost effective for electricity generators who wish to decrease expenses and consumption, rather than providing in-home displays. In the following chapter, I examine the response of residential households after exposure to time of use tariffs at different hours of the day. I find that these treatments reduce electricity consumption during peak hours by almost four percent, significantly lowering demand. Within the model, I find evidence of overall conservation in electricity used. In addition, weekday peak reductions appear to carry over to the weekend when peak pricing is not present, suggesting changes in consumer habit. The final chapter of my dissertation imposes a system wide time of use plan to analyze the potential reduction in carbon emissions from load shifting based on the Ireland and Northern Single Electricity Market. I find that CO2 emissions savings are highest during the winter months when load demand is highest and dirtier power plants are scheduled to meet peak demand. TOU pricing allows for shifting in usage from peak usage to off peak usage and this shift in load can be met with cleaner and cheaper generated electricity from imports, high efficiency gas units, and hydro units.

Estimating the demand curve for sustainable use of pesticides from contingent-valuation data

Stated-preference valuation techniques are often used to assess consumers' willingness-to-pay for food items produced in farming systems that adopt a sustainable use of pesticides (SUP). We propose an innovative valuation methodology in which dichotomous-choice contingent valuation is used to estimate the demand curve (price-quantity relationship) for such food items where price means price premium for the SUP output, quantity is the probability of choosing SUP and the conventional food product is kept available in the market at the current market price. This methodology can be used to evaluate market differentiation as a policy option to promote the SUP. The methodology is tested with data from a sample of urban consumers of fruits and vegetables in Portugal. The estimated demand curve is used to define the price level maximizing the total premium revenue for the SUP sector as a whole. This optimal level of the price premium is €77.55 (or 163% of the value of the monthly basket of fruits and vegetables at current prices). Adopting the optimal price premium will decrease the number of consumers of SUP food by 54%. The reduction is even higher for low income consumers (80%) leaving them more exposed to the risks of pesticide use.

Essays in Market Design

In this dissertation, I study three problems in market design: the allocation of resources to schools using deferred acceptance algorithms, the demand reduction of employees on centralized labor markets, and the alleviation of traffic congestion. I show how institutional and behavioral considerations specific to each problem can alleviate several practical limitations faced by current solutions. For the case of traffic congestion, I show experimentally that the proposed solution is effective. In Chapter 1, I investigate how school districts could assign resources to schools when it is desirable to provide stable assignments. An assignment is stable if there is no student currently assigned to a school that would prefer to be assigned to a different school that would admit him if it had the resources. Current assignment algorithms assume resources are fixed. I show how simple modifications to these algorithms produce stable allocations of resources and students to schools. In Chapter 2, I show how the negotiation of salaries within centralized labor markets using deferred acceptance algorithms eliminates the incentives of the hiring firms to strategically reduce their demand. It is well-known that it is impossible to eliminate these incentives for the hiring firms in markets without negotiation of salaries. Chapter 3 investigates how to achieve an efficient distribution of traffic congestion on a road network. Traffic congestion is the product of an externality: drivers do not consider the cost they impose on other drivers by entering a road. In theory, Pigouvian prices would solve the problem. In practice, however, these prices face two important limitations: i) the information required to calculate these prices is unavailable to policy makers and ii) these prices would effectively be new taxes that would transfer resources from the public to the government. I show how to construct congestion prices that retrieve the required information from the drivers and do not transfer resources to the government. I circumvent the limitations of Pigouvian prices by assuming that individuals make some mistakes when selecting routes and have a tendency towards truth-telling. Both assumptions are very robust observations in experimental economics.

Modeling perspective for the relevant market of voice services: mobile to mobile

Los mercados asociados a los servicios de voz móvil a móvil, brindados por operadoras del Sistema Móvil Avanzado en Latinoamérica, han estado sujetos a procesos regulatorios motivados por la dominancia en el mercado de un operador, buscando obtener óptimas condiciones de competencia. Específicamente en Ecuador, la Superintendencia de Telecomunicaciones (Organismo Técnico de Control de Telecomunicaciones) desarrolló un modelo para identificar acciones de regulación que puedan proporcionar al mercado efectos sostenibles de competencia en el largo plazo. Este artículo trata sobre la aplicación de la ingeniería de control para desarrollar un modelo integral del mercado, empleando redes neuronales para la predicción de trarifas de cada operador y un modelo de lógica difusa para predecir la demanda. Adicionalmente, se presenta un modelo de inferencia de lógica difusa para reproducir las estrategias de mercadeo de los operadores y la influencia sobre las tarifas. Dichos modelos permitirían la toma adecuada de decisiones y fueron validados con datos reales.