Physical Stature Decline and the Health Status of the Elderly Population in England

Few research papers in economics have examined the extent, causes or consequences of physical stature decline in aging populations. Using repeated observations on objectively measured data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), we document that reduction in height is an important phenomenon among respondents aged 50 and over. On average, physical stature decline occurs at an annual rate of between 0.08% and 0.10% for males, and 0.12% and 0.14% for females—which approximately translates into a 2cm to 4cm reduction in height over the life course. Since height is commonly used as a measure of long-run health, our results demonstrate that failing to take age-related height loss into account substantially overstates the health advantage of younger birth cohorts relative to their older counterparts. We also show that there is an absence of consistent predictors of physical stature decline at the individual level. However, we demonstrate how deteriorating health and reductions in height occur simultaneously. We document that declines in muscle mass and bone density are likely to be the mechanism through which these effects are operating. If this physical stature decline is determined by deteriorating health in adulthood, the coefficient on measured height when used as an input in a typical empirical health production function will be affected by reverse causality. While our analysis details the inherent difficulties associated with measuring height in older populations, we do not find that significant bias arises in typical empirical health production functions from the use of height which has not been adjusted for physical stature decline. Therefore, our results validate the use of height among the population aged over 50.

Symmetrical Solutions, Asymmetrical Realities: Beyond the Politics of Paralysis

The historic significance of the Good Friday Agreement and its role in ending organized political violence is acknowledged at the outset. The article then goes on to probe the roots of the political paralysis built into the architecture of the Agreement that are predicated on a misplaced political and cultural symmetry between the “two communities.” It is suggested that the institutionalized relationship between Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K. facilitates a cross-party, populist, socio-economic consensus among the nationalist and unionist political parties on the welfare state, taxation and maintaining the massive British subvention to the region. This in turn allows them to concentrate on a divisive culturalist politics, i.e., on antagonistic forms of cultural and identity politics over such issues as flags, parades, and the legacy of the “Troubles” which spills over into gridlock into many areas of regional administration. The article argues for a much broader understanding of culture and identity rooted in the different, if overlapping and interdependent, material realities of both communities while challenging the idea of two cultures/identities as fixed, mutually exclusive, non-negotiable and mutually antagonistic. It then focuses on the importance of Belfast as a key arena which will determine the long-term prospects of an alternative and more constructive form of politics, and enable a fuller recognition of the fundamental asymmetries and inter-dependence between the “two communities.” In the long run, this involves re-defining and reconstructing what is meant by the “Union” and a “United Ireland.”

A rapid HPLC protocol for detection of polyols and trehalose

A procedure was developed to extract polyols and trehalose (protectants against stress) from fungal conidia. Conidia were sonicated (120 s) and immersed in a boiling water bath (5.5 min) to optimize extraction of polyols and trehalose, respectively. A rapid method was developed to separate and detect low-molecular-weight polyols and trehalose using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). An ion exchange column designed for standard carbohydrate analysis was used in preference to one designed for sugar alcohol separation. This resulted in rapid elution (less than 5 min), without sacrificing peak resolution. The use of a pulsed electrochemical detector (gold electrode) resulted in limits of reliable quantification as low as 1.6 μg ml-1 for polyols and 2.8 μg ml-1 for trehalose. This is very sensitive and rapid method by which these protectants can be analysed. It avoids polyol derivatization that characterizes analysis by gas chromatography and the long run times (up to 45 min) that typify HPLC analysis using sugar alcohol columns.

Influence of tropical easterlies in southern Africa's winter rainfall zone during the Holocene

South Africa's southwestern Cape occupies a critical transition zone between Southern Hemisphere temperate (winter) and tropical (summer) moisture-bearing systems. In the recent geological past, it has been proposed that the relative influence of these systems may have changed substantially, but little reliable evidence regarding regional hydroclimates and rainfall seasonality exists to refine or substantiate the understanding of long-term dynamics. In this paper we present a mid-to late Holocene multi-proxy record of environmental change from a rock hyrax midden from Katbakkies Pass, located along the modern boundary between the winter and summer rainfall zones. Derived from stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes, fossil pollen and microcharcoal, these data provide a high resolution record of changes in humidity, and insight into changes in rainfall seasonality. Whereas previous work concluded that the site had generally experienced only subtle environmental change during the Holocene, our records indicate that significant, abrupt changes have occurred in the region over the last 7000 years. Contrary to expectations based on the site's location, these data indicate that the primary determinant of changes in humidity is summer rather than winter rainfall variability, and its influence on drought season intensity and/or length. These findings are consistent with independent records of upwelling along the southern and western coasts, which indicate that periods of increased humidity are related to increased tropical easterly flow. This substantially refines our understanding of the nature of temperate and tropical circulation system dynamics in SW Africa, and how changes in their relative dominance have impacted regional environments during the Holocene. 

Novel Panel Cointegration Tests Emending for Cross-Section Dependence with N Fixed

In this paper, we propose new cointegration tests for single equations and panels. Inboth cases, the asymptotic distributions of the tests, which are derived with N fixed andT → ∞, are shown to be standard normals. The effects of serial correlation and crosssectionaldependence are mopped out via long-run variances. An effective bias correctionis derived which is shown to work well in finite samples; particularly when N is smallerthan T. Our panel tests are robust to possible cointegration across units.

A Conventional Internal Combustion Engine Versus a Range Extended Electric Vehicle Under the Current Regulatory Regime in the United Kingdom

Transport accounts for 22% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United Kingdom and cars are expected tomore than double by 2050. Car manufacturers are continually aiming for a substantially reduced carbonfootprint through improved fuel efficiency and better powertrain performance due to the strict EuropeanUnion emissions standards. However, road tax, not just fuel efficiency, is a key consideration of consumerswhen purchasing a car. While measures have been taken to reduce emissions through stricter standards, infuture, alternative technologies will be used. Electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles and range extended electricvehicles have been identified as some of these future technologies. In this research a virtual test bed of aconventional internal combustion engine and a range extended electric vehicle family saloon car were builtin AVL’s vehicle and powertrain system level simulation tool, CRUISE, to simulate the New EuropeanDrive Cycle and the results were then soft-linked to a techno-economic model to compare the effectivenessof current support mechanisms over the full life cycle of both cars. The key finding indicates that althoughcarbon emissions are substantially reduced, switching is still not financially the best option for either theconsumer or the government in the long run.

Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management

This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing evidence for utility gains increases with investor’s preference over risk. Deregulation of electricity markets has led to higher uncertainty in electricity prices and by presenting these essays we try to shed new lights about structuring, pricing and hedging in this type of markets.

The causal relationship between private and public investment in Zimbabwe

Aims: The study examines the relationship between private and public investment in Zimbabwe utilizing yearly time series data for the period 1967 to 2004. Study Design: Time Series Study. Place and Duration of Study: Zimbabwe, May 2011 to July 2011. Methodology: Emphasis is placed on the direction of causality and the long run and short run effect of the two types of investment on each other. The paper constructs empirical models for both private and public investment, based on the flexible accelerator theory. Private investment is found to be cointegrated with public investment. A cointergration and VEC models are employed to assess the long and short run relationship existing between public and private investment. Conclusion: The relationship between private and public investment is found to be insignificant and the direction of causality found to be unidirectional. The results support the notion that private investment precedes public investment.

Monetary policy, exchange rates and stock prices in the Middle East region

A structural vector autoregressive model is employed to investigate the impact of monetary policy and real exchange rate shocks on the stock market performance of Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. In order to identify the structural shocks both short run and long run restrictions are applied. Unlike previous literature the contemporaneous interdependence between the financial variables are left unrestricted to give a more accurate depiction of the relationships. The heterogeneity of the results reflect the different monetary policy frameworks and stock market characteristics of these countries. Mainly, monetary policy and the real exchange rate shocks have a significant short run impact on the stock prices of the countries that apply a relatively more independent monetary policy and flexible exchange rates.

Survival or Sustainability? Contributions of Innovatively-Managed News Ventures to the Future of Egyptian Journalism

In the repressive political climate prevailing in Egypt in 2013-15, news ventures aspiring to high standards of reporting were forced to innovate. This paper analyses three Egyptian start-ups that experimented with novel revenue streams and news services during that period, to gain insights into their approaches to managing journalism. In the process it compares different criteria for assessing sustainability and concludes that, in adverse political environments, narrow economic measures of profitability and survival may give a misleading picture as to the sustainability of the kind of journalism conducive to democratic practice. Operating collaboratively, transparently and ethically may slow productivity and profitability in the short term while laying stronger foundations for durable relations among media teams, as well as with readers and advertisers, in the long run.

Shared resources and precedence constraints with capacity sharing and stealing

This paper proposes a new strategy to integrate shared resources and precedence constraints among real-time tasks, assuming no precise information on critical sections and computation times is available. The concept of bandwidth inheritance is combined with a greedy capacity sharing and stealing policy to efficiently exchange bandwidth among tasks, minimising the degree of deviation from the ideal system's behaviour caused by inter-application blocking. The proposed capacity exchange protocol (CXP) focus on exchanging extra capacities as early, and not necessarily as fairly, as possible. This loss of optimality is worth the reduced complexity as the protocol's behaviour nevertheless tends to be fair in the long run and outperforms other solutions in highly dynamic scenarios, as demonstrated by extensive simulations.

European Union emissions trading scheme impact on the Spanish electricity price during phase II and phase III implementation

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change and its key tool for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. The purpose of the present work is to evaluate the influence of CO2 opportunity cost on the Spanish wholesale electricity price. Our sample includes all Phase II of the EU ETS and the first year of Phase III implementation, from January 2008 to December 2013. A vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to estimate not only long-run equilibrium relations, but also short-run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The four commodities prices are modeled as joint endogenous variables with air temperature and renewable energy as exogenous variables. We found a long-run relationship (cointegration) between electricity price, carbon price, and fuel prices. By estimating the dynamic pass-through of carbon price into electricity price for different periods of our sample, it is possible to observe the weakening of the link between carbon and electricity prices as a result from the collapse on CO2 prices, therefore compromising the efficacy of the system to reach proposed environmental goals. This conclusion is in line with the need to shape new policies within the framework of the EU ETS that prevent excessive low prices for carbon over extended periods of time.

Fractional State Space Analysis of Economy Systems

This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method and state space portrait (SSP) analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and their old offshore territories, and SSP identifies the Great Depression as a mild challenge to the American global performance, when compared to the Second World War and the 2008 crisis.

Estudo e Projeto de Reabilitação dos Acessos aos Parques Eólicos da Iberwind

A Iberwind recebeu o aluno estagiário para a realização de um projeto de consultoria técnica focada nos acessos dos seus 31 parques eólicos presentes no território nacional. É apresentada a empresa, bem como todo o processo de construção e desenvolvimento de parques eólicos. O presente relatório de estágio foca-se, maioritariamente, na reabilitação de acessos a parques eólicos, debruçando-se sobre as especialidades de terraplenagens, drenagem e pavimentação, bem como as condicionantes geométricas. Verifica-se que com o passar dos anos, após a construção dos primeiros empreendimentos, começa a denotar-se a deterioração dos acessos aos mesmos. É, por isso, relevante e significativo o trabalho realizado no âmbito do estágio, por forma a avaliar as diversas necessidades de reabilitação e manutenção dos acessos a apresentar soluções globais. O levantamento de campo realizado cobriu todo o portefólio da empresa e documentou a totalidade das patologias relacionadas com as especialidades de pavimentação e drenagem. Executaram-se visitas a todos os parques, acompanhadas pelos operadores dos mesmos, e aliaram-se às mesmas entrevistas aos supervisores de zona com o intuito de aglomerar informação e contextualizar a problemática. Realizou-se uma proposta de reabilitação dos acessos em piores condições, o que levou à adjudicação da obra e acompanhamento de alguns trabalhos por parte do autor no presente ano. O trabalho realizado e detalhadamente documentado permitiu a criação de uma metodologia de inspeção e manutenção a ser implementada nos parques eólicos do grupo, de forma a reduzir custos e otimizar recursos a longo prazo. A metodologia consiste, de forma sintetizada, na inspecção periódica dos acessos de cada parque pelas equipas de campo e a definição das necessidades prioritárias de manutenção e reabilitação dos mesmos de maneira independente.

Three essays on economics of predictability of stock returns

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics