967 resultados para large deviation theory
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The large intrinsic bandgap of NiO hinders its potential application as a photocatalyst under visible-light irradiation. In this study, we have performed first-principles screened exchange hybrid density functional theory with the HSE06 functional calculations of N- and C-doped NiO to investigate the effect of doping on the electronic structure of NiO. C-doping at an oxygen site induces gap states due to the dopant, the positions of which suggest that the top of the valence band is made up primarily of C 2p-derived states with some Ni 3d contributions, and the lowest-energy empty state is in the middle of the gap. This leads to an effective bandgap of 1.7 eV, which is of potential interest for photocatalytic applications. N-doping induces comparatively little dopant-Ni 3d interactions, but results in similar positions of dopant-induced states, i.e., the top of the valence band is made up of dopant 2p states and the lowest unoccupied state is the empty gap state derived from the dopant, leading to bandgap narrowing. With the hybrid density functional theory (DFT) results available, we discuss issues with the DFT corrected for on-site Coulomb description of these systems.
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Experiments at Jefferson Lab have been conducted to extract the nucleon spin-dependent structure functions over a wide kinematic range. Higher moments of these quantities provide tests of QCD sum rules and predictions of chiral perturbation theory ($\chi$PT). While precise measurements of $g_{1}^n$, $g_{2}^n$, and $g_1^p$ have been extensively performed, the data of $g_2^p$ remain scarce. Discrepancies were found between existing data related to $g_2$ and theoretical predictions. Results on the proton at large $Q^2$ show a significant deviation from the Burkhardt-Cottingham sum rule, while results for the neutron generally follow this sum rule. The next-to-leading order $\chi$PT calculations exhibit discrepancy with data on the longitudinal-transverse polarizability $\delta_{LT}^n$. Further measurements of the proton spin structure function $g_2^p$ are desired to understand these discrepancies.
Experiment E08-027 (g2p) was conducted at Jefferson Lab in experimental Hall A in 2012. Inclusive measurements were performed with polarized electron beam and a polarized ammonia target to obtain the proton spin-dependent structure function $g_2^p$ at low Q$^2$ region (0.02$<$Q$^2$$<$0.2 GeV$^2$) for the first time. The results can be used to test the Burkhardt-Cottingham sum rule, and also allow us to extract the longitudinal-transverse spin polarizability of the proton, which will provide a benchmark test of $\chi$PT calculations. This thesis will present and discuss the very preliminary results of the transverse asymmetry and the spin-dependent structure functions $g_1^p$ and $g_2^p$ from the data analysis of the g2p experiment .
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Many modern applications fall into the category of "large-scale" statistical problems, in which both the number of observations n and the number of features or parameters p may be large. Many existing methods focus on point estimation, despite the continued relevance of uncertainty quantification in the sciences, where the number of parameters to estimate often exceeds the sample size, despite huge increases in the value of n typically seen in many fields. Thus, the tendency in some areas of industry to dispense with traditional statistical analysis on the basis that "n=all" is of little relevance outside of certain narrow applications. The main result of the Big Data revolution in most fields has instead been to make computation much harder without reducing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods excel at uncertainty quantification, but often scale poorly relative to alternatives. This conflict between the statistical advantages of Bayesian procedures and their substantial computational disadvantages is perhaps the greatest challenge facing modern Bayesian statistics, and is the primary motivation for the work presented here.
Two general strategies for scaling Bayesian inference are considered. The first is the development of methods that lend themselves to faster computation, and the second is design and characterization of computational algorithms that scale better in n or p. In the first instance, the focus is on joint inference outside of the standard problem of multivariate continuous data that has been a major focus of previous theoretical work in this area. In the second area, we pursue strategies for improving the speed of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and characterizing their performance in large-scale settings. Throughout, the focus is on rigorous theoretical evaluation combined with empirical demonstrations of performance and concordance with the theory.
One topic we consider is modeling the joint distribution of multivariate categorical data, often summarized in a contingency table. Contingency table analysis routinely relies on log-linear models, with latent structure analysis providing a common alternative. Latent structure models lead to a reduced rank tensor factorization of the probability mass function for multivariate categorical data, while log-linear models achieve dimensionality reduction through sparsity. Little is known about the relationship between these notions of dimensionality reduction in the two paradigms. In Chapter 2, we derive several results relating the support of a log-linear model to nonnegative ranks of the associated probability tensor. Motivated by these findings, we propose a new collapsed Tucker class of tensor decompositions, which bridge existing PARAFAC and Tucker decompositions, providing a more flexible framework for parsimoniously characterizing multivariate categorical data. Taking a Bayesian approach to inference, we illustrate empirical advantages of the new decompositions.
Latent class models for the joint distribution of multivariate categorical, such as the PARAFAC decomposition, data play an important role in the analysis of population structure. In this context, the number of latent classes is interpreted as the number of genetically distinct subpopulations of an organism, an important factor in the analysis of evolutionary processes and conservation status. Existing methods focus on point estimates of the number of subpopulations, and lack robust uncertainty quantification. Moreover, whether the number of latent classes in these models is even an identified parameter is an open question. In Chapter 3, we show that when the model is properly specified, the correct number of subpopulations can be recovered almost surely. We then propose an alternative method for estimating the number of latent subpopulations that provides good quantification of uncertainty, and provide a simple procedure for verifying that the proposed method is consistent for the number of subpopulations. The performance of the model in estimating the number of subpopulations and other common population structure inference problems is assessed in simulations and a real data application.
In contingency table analysis, sparse data is frequently encountered for even modest numbers of variables, resulting in non-existence of maximum likelihood estimates. A common solution is to obtain regularized estimates of the parameters of a log-linear model. Bayesian methods provide a coherent approach to regularization, but are often computationally intensive. Conjugate priors ease computational demands, but the conjugate Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors for the parameters of log-linear models do not give rise to closed form credible regions, complicating posterior inference. In Chapter 4 we derive the optimal Gaussian approximation to the posterior for log-linear models with Diaconis--Ylvisaker priors, and provide convergence rate and finite-sample bounds for the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the exact posterior and the optimal Gaussian approximation. We demonstrate empirically in simulations and a real data application that the approximation is highly accurate, even in relatively small samples. The proposed approximation provides a computationally scalable and principled approach to regularized estimation and approximate Bayesian inference for log-linear models.
Another challenging and somewhat non-standard joint modeling problem is inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes. In applications where extreme dependence is of interest, data are almost always time-indexed. Existing methods for inference and modeling in this setting often cluster extreme events or choose window sizes with the goal of preserving temporal information. In Chapter 5, we propose an alternative paradigm for inference on tail dependence in stochastic processes with arbitrary temporal dependence structure in the extremes, based on the idea that the information on strength of tail dependence and the temporal structure in this dependence are both encoded in waiting times between exceedances of high thresholds. We construct a class of time-indexed stochastic processes with tail dependence obtained by endowing the support points in de Haan's spectral representation of max-stable processes with velocities and lifetimes. We extend Smith's model to these max-stable velocity processes and obtain the distribution of waiting times between extreme events at multiple locations. Motivated by this result, a new definition of tail dependence is proposed that is a function of the distribution of waiting times between threshold exceedances, and an inferential framework is constructed for estimating the strength of extremal dependence and quantifying uncertainty in this paradigm. The method is applied to climatological, financial, and electrophysiology data.
The remainder of this thesis focuses on posterior computation by Markov chain Monte Carlo. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It has long been common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention has been paid to convergence and estimation error in these approximating Markov Chains. In Chapter 6, we propose a framework for assessing when to use approximations in MCMC algorithms, and how much error in the transition kernel should be tolerated to obtain optimal estimation performance with respect to a specified loss function and computational budget. The results require only ergodicity of the exact kernel and control of the kernel approximation accuracy. The theoretical framework is applied to approximations based on random subsets of data, low-rank approximations of Gaussian processes, and a novel approximating Markov chain for discrete mixture models.
Data augmentation Gibbs samplers are arguably the most popular class of algorithm for approximately sampling from the posterior distribution for the parameters of generalized linear models. The truncated Normal and Polya-Gamma data augmentation samplers are standard examples for probit and logit links, respectively. Motivated by an important problem in quantitative advertising, in Chapter 7 we consider the application of these algorithms to modeling rare events. We show that when the sample size is large but the observed number of successes is small, these data augmentation samplers mix very slowly, with a spectral gap that converges to zero at a rate at least proportional to the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size up to a log factor. In simulation studies, moderate sample sizes result in high autocorrelations and small effective sample sizes. Similar empirical results are observed for related data augmentation samplers for multinomial logit and probit models. When applied to a real quantitative advertising dataset, the data augmentation samplers mix very poorly. Conversely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and a type of independence chain Metropolis algorithm show good mixing on the same dataset.
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A search for new heavy resonances decaying to boson pairs (WZ, WW or ZZ) using 20.3 inverse femtobarns of proton-proton collision data at a center of mass energy of 8 TeV is presented. The data were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in 2012. The analysis combines several search channels with the leptonic, semi-leptonic and fully hadronic final states. The diboson invariant mass spectrum is studied for local excesses above the Standard Model background prediction, and no significant excess is observed for the combined analysis. 95$\%$ confidence limits are set on the cross section times branching ratios for three signal models: an extended gauge model with a heavy W boson, a bulk Randall-Sundrum model with a spin-2 graviton, and a simplified model with a heavy vector triplet. Among the individual search channels, the fully-hadronic channel is predominantly presented where boson tagging technique and jet substructure cuts are used. Local excesses are found in the dijet mass distribution around 2 TeV, leading to a global significance of 2.5 standard deviations. This deviation from the Standard Model prediction results in many theory explanations, and the possibilities could be further explored using the LHC Run 2 data.
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Compulsory education laws oblige primary and secondary schools to give each pupil positive encouragement in, for example, social, emotional, cognitive, creative, and ethical respects. This is a fairly smooth process for most pupils, but it is not as easy to achieve with others. A pattern of pupil, home or family, and school variables turns out to be responsible for a long-term process that may lead to a pupil’s dropping out of education. A systemic approach will do much to introduce more clarity into the diagnosis, potential reduction and possible prevention of some persistent educational problems that express themselves in related phenomena, for example low school motivation and achievement; forced underachievement of high ability pupils; concentration of bullying and violent behaviour in and around some types of classes and schools; and drop-out percentages that are relatively constant across time. Such problems have a negative effect on pupils, teachers, parents, schools, and society alike. In this address, I would therefore like to clarify some of the systemic causes and processes that we have identified between specific educational and pupil characteristics. Both theory and practice can assist in developing, implementing, and checking better learning methods and coaching procedures, particularly for pupils at risk. This development approach will take time and require co-ordination, but it will result in much better processes and outcomes than we are used to. First, I will diagnose some systemic aspects of education that do not seem to optimise the learning processes and school careers of some types of pupils in particular. Second, I will specify cognitive, social, motivational, and self-regulative aspects of learning tasks and relate corresponding learning processes to relevant instructional and wider educational contexts. I will elaborate these theoretical notions into an educational design with systemic instructional guidelines and multilevel procedures that may improve learning processes for different types of pupils. Internet-based Information and Communication Technology, or ICT, also plays a major role here. Third, I will report on concrete developments made in prototype research and trials. The development process concerns ICT-based differentiation of learning materials and procedures, and ICT-based strategies to improve pupil development and learning. Fourth, I will focus on the experience gained in primary and secondary educational practice with respect to implementation. We can learn much from such practical experience, in particular about the conditions for developing and implementing the necessary changes in and around schools. Finally, I will propose future research. As I hope to make clear, theory-based development and implementation research can join forces with systemic innovation and differentiated assessment in educational practice, to pave the way for optimal “learning for self-regulation” for pupils, teachers, parents, schools, and society at large.
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The strong mixing of many-electron basis states in excited atoms and ions with open f shells results in very large numbers of complex, chaotic eigenstates that cannot be computed to any degree of accuracy. Describing the processes which involve such states requires the use of a statistical theory. Electron capture into these “compound resonances” leads to electron-ion recombination rates that are orders of magnitude greater than those of direct, radiative recombination and cannot be described by standard theories of dielectronic recombination. Previous statistical theories considered this as a two-electron capture process which populates a pair of single-particle orbitals, followed by “spreading” of the two-electron states into chaotically mixed eigenstates. This method is similar to a configuration-average approach because it neglects potentially important effects of spectator electrons and conservation of total angular momentum. In this work we develop a statistical theory which considers electron capture into “doorway” states with definite angular momentum obtained by the configuration interaction method. We apply this approach to electron recombination with W20+, considering 2×106 doorway states. Despite strong effects from the spectator electrons, we find that the results of the earlier theories largely hold. Finally, we extract the fluorescence yield (the probability of photoemission and hence recombination) by comparison with experiment.
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In this paper, we consider the transmission of confidential information over a κ-μ fading channel in the presence of an eavesdropper who also experiences κ-μ fading. In particular, we obtain novel analytical solutions for the probability of strictly positive secrecy capacity (SPSC) and a lower bound of secure outage probability (SOPL) for independent and non-identically distributed channel coefficients without parameter constraints. We also provide a closed-form expression for the probability of SPSC when the μ parameter is assumed to take positive integer values. Monte-Carlo simulations are performed to verify the derived results. The versatility of the κ-μ fading model means that the results presented in this paper can be used to determine the probability of SPSC and SOPL for a large number of other fading scenarios, such as Rayleigh, Rice (Nakagamin), Nakagami-m, One-Sided Gaussian, and mixtures of these common fading models. In addition, due to the duality of the analysis of secrecy capacity and co-channel interference (CCI), the results presented here will have immediate applicability in the analysis of outage probability in wireless systems affected by CCI and background noise (BN). To demonstrate the efficacy of the novel formulations proposed here, we use the derived equations to provide a useful insight into the probability of SPSC and SOPL for a range of emerging wireless applications, such as cellular device-to-device, peer-to-peer, vehicle-to-vehicle, and body centric communications using data obtained from real channel measurements.
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Increased complexity in large design and manufacturing organisations requires improvements at the operations management (OM)–applied service (AS) interface areas to improve project effectiveness. The aim of this paper is explore the role of Lean in improving the longitudinal efficiency of the OM–AS interface within a large aerospace organisation using Lean principles and boundary spanning theory. The methodology was an exploratory longitudinal case approach including exploratory interviews (n = 21), focus groups (n = 2), facilitated action-research workshops (n = 2) and two trials or experiments using longitudinal data involving both OM and AS personnel working at the interface. The findings draw upon Lean principles and boundary spanning theory to guide and interpret the findings. It was found that misinterpretation, and forced implementation, of OM-based Lean terminology and practice in the OM–AS interface space led to delays and misplaced resources. Rather both OM and AS staff were challenged to develop a cross boundary understanding of Lean-based boundary (knowledge) objects in interpreting OM requests. The longitudinal findings from the experiments showed that the development of Lean Performance measurements and lean Value Stream constructs was more successful when these Lean constructs were treated as boundary (knowledge) objects requiring transformation over time to orchestrate improved effectiveness and in leading to consistent terminology and understanding between the OM–AS boundary spanning team.
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Two-dimensional (2D) materials have generated great interest in the last few years as a new toolbox for electronics. This family of materials includes, among others, metallic graphene, semiconducting transition metal dichalcogenides (such as MoS2) and insulating Boron Nitride. These materials and their heterostructures offer excellent mechanical flexibility, optical transparency and favorable transport properties for realizing electronic, sensing and optical systems on arbitrary surfaces. In this work, we develop several etch stop layer technologies that allow the fabrication of complex 2D devices and present for the first time the large scale integration of graphene with molybdenum disulfide (MoS2) , both grown using the fully scalable CVD technique. Transistor devices and logic circuits with MoS2 channel and graphene as contacts and interconnects are constructed and show high performances. In addition, the graphene/MoS2 heterojunction contact has been systematically compared with MoS2-metal junctions experimentally and studied using density functional theory. The tunability of the graphene work function significantly improves the ohmic contact to MoS2. These high-performance large-scale devices and circuits based on 2D heterostructure pave the way for practical flexible transparent electronics in the future. The authors acknowledge financial support from the Office of Naval Research (ONR) Young Investigator Program, the ONR GATE MURI program, and the Army Research Laboratory. This research has made use of the MI.
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Kinetic theory studies the macroscopic properties of large numbers of particles, starting from their (classical) equations of motion while the thermodynamics describes the equilibrium behavior of macroscopic objects in terms of concepts such as work, heat, and entropy. The phenomenological laws of thermodynamics tell us how these quantities are constrained as a system approaches its equilibrium. At the microscopic level, we know that these systems are composed of particles (atoms, particles), whose interactions and dynamics are reasonably well understood in terms of more fundamental theories. If these microscopic descriptions are complete, we should be able to account for the macroscopic behavior, i.e. derive the laws governing the macroscopic state functions in equilibrium. Kinetic theory attempts to achieve this objective. In particular, we shall try to answer the following questions [1]: How can we define equilibrium for a system of moving particles? Do all systems naturally evolve towards an equilibrium state? What is the time evolution of a system that is not quite in equilibrium?
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Permeability of a rock is a dynamic property that varies spatially and temporally. Fractures provide the most efficient channels for fluid flow and thus directly contribute to the permeability of the system. Fractures usually form as a result of a combination of tectonic stresses, gravity (i.e. lithostatic pressure) and fluid pressures. High pressure gradients alone can cause fracturing, the process which is termed as hydrofracturing that can determine caprock (seal) stability or reservoir integrity. Fluids also transport mass and heat, and are responsible for the formation of veins by precipitating minerals within open fractures. Veining (healing) thus directly influences the rock’s permeability. Upon deformation these closed factures (veins) can refracture and the cycle starts again. This fracturing-healing-refacturing cycle is a fundamental part in studying the deformation dynamics and permeability evolution of rock systems. This is generally accompanied by fracture network characterization focusing on network topology that determines network connectivity. Fracture characterization allows to acquire quantitative and qualitative data on fractures and forms an important part of reservoir modeling. This thesis highlights the importance of fracture-healing and veins’ mechanical properties on the deformation dynamics. It shows that permeability varies spatially and temporally, and that healed systems (veined rocks) should not be treated as fractured systems (rocks without veins). Field observations also demonstrate the influence of contrasting mechanical properties, in addition to the complexities of vein microstructures that can form in low-porosity and permeability layered sequences. The thesis also presents graph theory as a characterization method to obtain statistical measures on evolving network connectivity. It also proposes what measures a good reservoir should have to exhibit potentially large permeability and robustness against healing. The results presented in the thesis can have applications for hydrocarbon and geothermal reservoir exploration, mining industry, underground waste disposal, CO2 injection or groundwater modeling.
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Peer-to-peer information sharing has fundamentally changed customer decision-making process. Recent developments in information technologies have enabled digital sharing platforms to influence various granular aspects of the information sharing process. Despite the growing importance of digital information sharing, little research has examined the optimal design choices for a platform seeking to maximize returns from information sharing. My dissertation seeks to fill this gap. Specifically, I study novel interventions that can be implemented by the platform at different stages of the information sharing. In collaboration with a leading for-profit platform and a non-profit platform, I conduct three large-scale field experiments to causally identify the impact of these interventions on customers’ sharing behaviors as well as the sharing outcomes. The first essay examines whether and how a firm can enhance social contagion by simply varying the message shared by customers with their friends. Using a large randomized field experiment, I find that i) adding only information about the sender’s purchase status increases the likelihood of recipients’ purchase; ii) adding only information about referral reward increases recipients’ follow-up referrals; and iii) adding information about both the sender’s purchase as well as the referral rewards increases neither the likelihood of purchase nor follow-up referrals. I then discuss the underlying mechanisms. The second essay studies whether and how a firm can design unconditional incentive to engage customers who already reveal willingness to share. I conduct a field experiment to examine the impact of incentive design on sender’s purchase as well as further referral behavior. I find evidence that incentive structure has a significant, but interestingly opposing, impact on both outcomes. The results also provide insights about senders’ motives in sharing. The third essay examines whether and how a non-profit platform can use mobile messaging to leverage recipients’ social ties to encourage blood donation. I design a large field experiment to causally identify the impact of different types of information and incentives on donor’s self-donation and group donation behavior. My results show that non-profits can stimulate group effect and increase blood donation, but only with group reward. Such group reward works by motivating a different donor population. In summary, the findings from the three studies will offer valuable insights for platforms and social enterprises on how to engineer digital platforms to create social contagion. The rich data from randomized experiments and complementary sources (archive and survey) also allows me to test the underlying mechanism at work. In this way, my dissertation provides both managerial implication and theoretical contribution to the phenomenon of peer-to-peer information sharing.
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215 p.
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Statistical approaches to study extreme events require, by definition, long time series of data. In many scientific disciplines, these series are often subject to variations at different temporal scales that affect the frequency and intensity of their extremes. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity is violated and alternative methods to conventional stationary extreme value analysis (EVA) must be adopted. Using the example of environmental variables subject to climate change, in this study we introduce the transformed-stationary (TS) methodology for non-stationary EVA. This approach consists of (i) transforming a non-stationary time series into a stationary one, to which the stationary EVA theory can be applied, and (ii) reverse transforming the result into a non-stationary extreme value distribution. As a transformation, we propose and discuss a simple time-varying normalization of the signal and show that it enables a comprehensive formulation of non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models with a constant shape parameter. A validation of the methodology is carried out on time series of significant wave height, residual water level, and river discharge, which show varying degrees of long-term and seasonal variability. The results from the proposed approach are comparable with the results from (a) a stationary EVA on quasi-stationary slices of non-stationary series and (b) the established method for non-stationary EVA. However, the proposed technique comes with advantages in both cases. For example, in contrast to (a), the proposed technique uses the whole time horizon of the series for the estimation of the extremes, allowing for a more accurate estimation of large return levels. Furthermore, with respect to (b), it decouples the detection of non-stationary patterns from the fitting of the extreme value distribution. As a result, the steps of the analysis are simplified and intermediate diagnostics are possible. In particular, the transformation can be carried out by means of simple statistical techniques such as low-pass filters based on the running mean and the standard deviation, and the fitting procedure is a stationary one with a few degrees of freedom and is easy to implement and control. An open-source MAT-LAB toolbox has been developed to cover this methodology, which is available at https://github.com/menta78/tsEva/(Mentaschi et al., 2016).
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University students are more globally mobile than ever before, increasingly receiving education outside of their home countries. One significant student exchange pattern is between China and the United States; Chinese students are the largest population of international students in the U.S. (Institute of International Education, 2014). Differences between Chinese and American culture in turn influence higher education praxis in both countries, and students are enculturated into the expectations and practices of their home countries. This implies significant changes for students who must navigate cultural differences, academic expectations, and social norms during the process of transition to a system of higher education outside their home country. Despite the trends in students’ global mobility and implications for international students’ transitions, scholarship about international students does not examine students’ experiences with the transition process to a new country and system of higher education. Related models were developed with American organizations and individuals, making it unlikely that they would be culturally transferable to Chinese international students’ transitions. This study used qualitative methods to deepen the understanding of Chinese international students’ transition processes. Grounded theory methods were used to invite the narratives of 18 Chinese international students at a large public American university, analyze the data, and build a theory that reflects Chinese international students’ experiences transitioning to American university life. Findings of the study show that Chinese international students experience a complex process of transition to study in the United States. Students’ pre-departure experiences, including previous exposure to American culture, family expectations, and language preparation, informed their transition. Upon arrival, students navigate resource seeking to fulfill their practical, emotional, social, intellectual, and ideological needs. As students experienced various positive and discouraging events, they developed responses to the pivotal moments. These behaviors formed patterns in which students sought familiarity or challenge subsequent to certain events. The findings and resulting theory provide a framework through which to better understand the experiences of Chinese international students in the context of American higher education.