Psychological cue use and implications for a clinical decision support system

Effective clinical decision making depends upon identifying possible outcomes for a patient, selecting relevant cues, and processing the cues to arrive at accurate judgements of each outcome's probability of occurrence. These activities can be considered as classification tasks. This paper describes a new model of psychological classification that explains how people use cues to determine class or outcome likelihoods. It proposes that clinicians respond to conditional probabilities of outcomes given cues and that these probabilities compete with each other for influence on classification. The model explains why people appear to respond to base rates inappropriately, thereby overestimating the occurrence of rare categories, and a clinical example is provided for predicting suicide risk. The model makes an effective representation for expert clinical judgements and its psychological validity enables it to generate explanations in a form that is comprehensible to clinicians. It is a strong candidate for incorporation within a decision support system for mental-health risk assessment, where it can link with statistical and pattern recognition tools applied to a database of patients. The symbiotic combination of empirical evidence and clinical expertise can provide an important web-based resource for risk assessment, including multi-disciplinary education and training. © 2002 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved.

Using XML and XSLT for flexible elicitation of mental-health risk knowledge

Current tools for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems require assessors to make high-level judgements based on clinical experience. This paper describes how new technologies can enhance qualitative research methods to identify lower-level cues underlying these judgements, which can be collected by people without a specialist mental-health background. Content analysis of interviews with 46 multidisciplinary mental-health experts exposed the cues and their interrelationships, which were represented by a mind map using software that stores maps as XML. All 46 mind maps were integrated into a single XML knowledge structure and analysed by a Lisp program to generate quantitative information about the numbers of experts associated with each part of it. The knowledge was refined by the experts, using software developed in Flash to record their collective views within the XML itself. These views specified how the XML should be transformed by XSLT, a technology for rendering XML, which resulted in a validated hierarchical knowledge structure associating patient cues with risks. Changing knowledge elicitation requirements were accommodated by flexible transformations of XML data using XSLT, which also facilitated generation of multiple data-gathering tools suiting different assessment circumstances and levels of mental-health knowledge. © 2007 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved.

The antecedents and consequences of anticipatory identification

The aim of this thesis was to investigate anticipatory identification: newcomers’ identification with an organisation prior to entry; in particular by exploring the antecedents and consequences of the construct. Although organisational identification has been frequently investigated over the past 25 years, surprisingly little is known about what causes an individual to identify with a new organisation before entry and whether this has an impact on their relationship with the organisation after formally taking up membership. Drawing on a Social Identity approach to organisational identification, it was hypothesised that newcomers would more closely identify with an organisation prior to entry when the organisation was seen as a source of positive social identity and was situationally relevant and meaningful to the newcomer, i.e. salient, during the pre-entry period. It was also hypothesised that anticipatory identification would have post-entry consequences and would predict newcomers’ post-entry identification, turnover intentions and job satisfaction. An indirect relationship between anticipatory identification and post-entry identification through post-entry social identity judgements (termed a “feedback loop” mechanism) was additionally proposed. Finally anticipatory identification was also predicted to moderate the relationship between post-entry social identity judgements and post-entry identification (termed a “buffering” mechanism). Four studies were conducted to test these hypotheses. Study One served as a pilot study, using a retrospective self-report design with s sample of 124 university students to initially test the proposed conceptual model. Studies Two and Three adopted experimental designs. Each used a unique sample of 72 staff and students from Aston University to respectively test the hypothesised positive social identity motive and salience antecedents of anticipatory identification. Study Four explored the relationship between anticipatory identification, its antecedents and consequences longitudinally, using an organisational sample of 45 employees. Overall, these studies found support for a social identity motive antecedent of anticipatory identification, as well as more limited evidence that anticipatory identification was associated with the salience of an organisation prior to entry. Support was inconsistent for a direct relationship between anticipatory identification and post-entry identification and there was no evidence that anticipatory identification was a significant direct predictor of turnover intention and job satisfaction. Anticipatory identification was however found to act as a buffer in the relationship between post-entry social identity judgements and post-entry identification in all but one of the four samples measured. A feedback loop mechanism was observed within the experimental designs of Studies Two and Three, but not within the organisational samples of Studies One and Four. Overall the findings of these four studies highlight key ways through which anticipatory identification can develop prior to entry into an organisation. Moreover, the research observed several important post-entry consequences of anticipatory identification, indicating that an understanding of post-entry identification may be enriched by attending more closely to the extent to which newcomers identify with an organisation prior to entry.

Look who's talking! Facial appearance can bias source monitoring

When we see a stranger's face we quickly form impressions of his or her personality, and expectations of how the stranger might behave. Might these intuitive character judgements bias source monitoring? Participants read headlines "reported" by a trustworthy- and an untrustworthy-looking reporter. Subsequently, participants recalled which reporter provided each headline. Source memory for likely-sounding headlines was most accurate when a trustworthy-looking reporter had provided the headlines. Conversely, source memory for unlikely-sounding headlines was most accurate when an untrustworthy-looking reporter had provided the headlines. This bias appeared to be driven by the use of decision criteria during retrieval rather than differences in memory encoding. Nevertheless, the bias was apparently unrelated to variations in subjective confidence. These results show for the first time that intuitive, stereotyped judgements of others' appearance can bias memory attributions analogously to the biases that occur when people receive explicit information to distinguish sources. We suggest possible real-life consequences of these stereotype-driven source-monitoring biases. © 2010 Psychology Press.

Enhanced access to early visual processing of perceptual simultaneity in autism spectrum disorders

We compared judgements of the simultaneity or asynchrony of visual stimuli in individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and typically-developing controls using Magnetoencephalography (MEG). Two vertical bars were presented simultaneously or non-simultaneously with two different stimulus onset delays. Participants with ASD distinguished significantly better between real simultaneity (0 ms delay between two stimuli) and apparent simultaneity (17 ms delay between two stimuli) than controls. In line with the increased sensitivity, event-related MEG activity showed increased differential responses for simultaneity versus apparent simultaneity. The strongest evoked potentials, observed over occipital cortices at about 130 ms, were correlated with performance differences in the ASD group only. Superior access to early visual brain processes in ASD might underlie increased resolution of visual events in perception. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Effectiveness of Olympic sponsorship by foreign and domestic companies: the influential role of consumer ethnocentrism

This study investigates Chinese consumers' responses to foreign and domestic sponsors engaged in the Beijing Olympic Games. It identifies direct causal relationships between consumer ethnocentrism, attitudes towards the sponsor and product judgement. Findings reveal that event involvement mediates the positive relationship between consumer ethnocentrism and attitudes towards the domestic sponsor. Attitudes towards foreign sponsors are found to be a significant mediator in the relationship between consumer ethnocentrism and judgements of the sponsors' products. Theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.

Is pregnancy a teachable moment for diet and physical activity behaviour change? An interpretative phenomenological analysis of the experiences of women during their first pregnancy

OBJECTIVES: Pregnancy may provide a 'teachable moment' for positive health behaviour change, as a time when women are both motivated towards health and in regular contact with health care professionals. This study aimed to investigate whether women's experiences of pregnancy indicate that they would be receptive to behaviour change during this period. DESIGN: Qualitative interview study. METHODS: Using interpretative phenomenological analysis, this study details how seven women made decisions about their physical activity and dietary behaviour during their first pregnancy. RESULTS: Two women had required fertility treatment to conceive. Their behaviour was driven by anxiety and a drive to minimize potential risks to the pregnancy. This included detailed information seeking and strict adherence to diet and physical activity recommendations. However, the majority of women described behaviour change as 'automatic', adopting a new lifestyle immediately upon discovering their pregnancy. Diet and physical activity were influenced by what these women perceived to be normal or acceptable during pregnancy (largely based on observations of others) and internal drivers, including bodily signals and a desire to retain some of their pre-pregnancy self-identity. More reasoned assessments regarding benefits for them and their baby were less prevalent and influential. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that for women who conceived relatively easily, diet and physical activity behaviour during pregnancy is primarily based upon a combination of automatic judgements, physical sensations, and perceptions of what pregnant women are supposed to do. Health professionals and other credible sources appear to exert less influence. As such, pregnancy alone may not create a 'teachable moment'. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Significant life events can be cues to action with relation to health behaviour change. However, much of the empirical research in this area has focused on negative health experiences such as receiving a false-positive screening result and hospitalization, and in relation to unequivocally negative behaviours such as smoking. It is often suggested that pregnancy, as a major life event, is a 'teachable moment' (TM) for lifestyle behaviour change due to an increase in motivation towards health and regular contact with health professionals. However, there is limited evidence for the utility of the TM model in predicting or promoting behaviour change. What does this study add? Two groups of women emerged from our study: the women who had experienced difficulties in conceiving and had received fertility treatment, and those who had conceived without intervention. The former group's experience of pregnancy was characterized by a sense of vulnerability and anxiety over sustaining the pregnancy which influenced every choice they made about their diet and physical activity. For the latter group, decisions about diet and physical activity were made immediately upon discovering their pregnancy, based upon a combination of automatic judgements, physical sensations, and perceptions of what is normal or 'good' for pregnancy. Among women with relatively trouble-free conception and pregnancy experiences, the necessary conditions may not be present to create a 'teachable moment'. This is due to a combination of a reliance on non-reflective decision-making, perception of low risk, and little change in affective response or self-concept.

Attitudes to language in literary sources:beyond post-colonialism in nigerian literature

All societies display attitudes to (varieties of) languages that tell us about the relative status of the groups that are associated to them. One method to document these is the systematic study of public discourses, including literary production. How (varieties of) languages are used, mentioned and characterised in a literary work tells us about their social status, and any change in this status should therefore be followed by changes in judgements on languages. This is demonstrated by the present paper with reference to the language attitudes in Nigeria, on the basis of two iconic Nigerian novels 2004 Purple Hibiscus and in 1958 classic postcolonial Things Fall Apart, separated by nearly fifty years. Ibo as well as Pidgin, Nigerian and European Englishes are presented in Purple Hibiscus in nuanced complementary configurations. A strong axiological polarisation is by contrast offered in Things Fall Apart between Ibo speakers and Ibo interpreters who are presented as cruel and ridiculous traitors siding with the English colonising power whose language, curiously, is not commented upon. Showing how a replicable method applied to language judgements can document social organisation and change, these results validate the view that the Nigerian society and culture has moved beyond the historically situated postcolonialist movement to embrace a globalised paradigm. © 2010 Taylor & Francis.

Inventory investment and sectoral characteristics in some OECD countries

This paper discusses the effects of sectoral structure on the long run macroeconomic inventory behaviour of national economies. Data on 15 OECD countries are included in the analysis, which is based on correlation and cluster analysis methodologies. The study is part of a long-term research project exploring factors influencing the inventory behaviour of national economies. First, we introduce some basic characteristics of macroeconomic inventory formation in the 15 OECD countries. We argue that our previous results on the existence of specific characteristic features of macroeconomic inventory investment are justified, hence it makes sense to study the factors influencing these features. We then examine the contribution of various sectors to the production of in the countries involved and the relationship between sectoral structure and inventory intensity (annual inventory change/Gross Value Added). We find that the high share of agriculture and manufacturing increases inventory intensity, that the increasing share of services has a negative effect and that the role of construction and trade is not obvious. The relatively low stability of the statistical results warns us to be cautious with our judgements. Further, case-by-case analysis would be required to obtain more solid results.

Milyen is hát a tőke a 21. században? Megjegyzések Piketty könyvéhez (So what is capital in the 21st century? Notes on Piketty's book)

Ezt az írást Piketty kiváló és fontos könyve inspirálta. A könyvnek nemcsak a címe, hanem számos megfogalmazása is azt a várakozást keltheti, hogy a kapitalista rendszer átfogó elemzése kerül az olvasó kezébe. Ehhez képest a tanulmány szerzőjében hiányérzet támadt. A kapitalista rendszernek számos immanens tulajdonsága, veleszületett hajlama van. Közülük hárommal foglakozik a tanulmány. 1. A kapitalizmus egyik alapvonása a dinamizmus, az innováció, a teremtő rombolás. Nem adhat teljes képet a kapitalizmusról az, aki ezt az alapvetően fontos jelenséget ignorálja. 2. A kapitalizmus óhatatlanul nagyfokú egyenlőtlenséget hoz létre; ezt reformokkal kell enyhíteni, de teljesen nem küszöbölhető ki. 3. A kapitalizmus alapvető jellegzetességei, a magántulajdon és a piaci koordináció dominanciája nagy hatású ösztönzési mechanizmusokat hoznak létre, amelyek mind a tulajdonosokat, mind a vállalatok vezetőit innovációra és hatékony működésre serkentik. Az egyik legfontosabb ösztönző a verseny, különösen az oligopolisztikus verseny. A kapitalista rendszernek e három fontos tendenciája között szoros kölcsönhatás érvényesül. Piketty fő témáját, a jövedelem és a vagyon eloszlását nem lehet jól megérteni, ha a másik két tendenciától elszakítva vizsgáljuk. A tanulmány befejezésül ismerteti a szerző saját értékítéleteit a kapitalista rendszer kedvező és káros, igazságtalan vonásairól. _____ This study was inspired by Piketty s excellent and important book. Its title and numerous statements in it arouse in readers expectations of a comprehensive analysis of capitalism. By comparison the author of this paper felt things were lacking. The capitalist system has numerous immanent traits and innate tendencies, of which the study properties three: 1. One basic feature is dynamism, innovation, and creative destruction. No picture of capitalism can be full if this basic aspect is ignored. 2. Capitalism inevitably brings about a high degree of inequality; this must be eased by reforms, but cannot be entirely overcome. 3. The basic characteristics of capitalism - private ownership and the dominance of market coordination - give rise to strong incentive mechanisms that encourage but owners and enterprise executives to innovate and to cooperate effectively. One of the main incentives is competition, especially oligopolistic competition. There are strong mutual effects among these three important tendencies. It is impossible to understand well Piketty s main subject, the distribution of income and wealth, if it is divorced from the other two tendencies. The study ends with its author s own value judgements on the favourable and harmful, unjust attributes of the capitalist system.

So what is Capital in the Twenty-First Century? Some notes on Piketty’s book Working paper, forthcoming in Capitalism & Society

This study was inspired by Piketty’s excellent and important book. Its title and numerous statements in it arouse in readers expectations of a comprehensive analysis of capitalism. By comparison the author of this paper felt important aspects were lacking. The capitalist system has numerous immanent traits and innate tendencies, of which the paper takes a closer look at three properties. 1. One basic feature is dynamism, innovation, and creative destruction. No picture of capitalism can be full if this basic aspect is ignored. 2. Capitalism inevitably brings about a high degree of inequality; this must be eased by reforms, but cannot be entirely overcome. 3. The basic characteristics of capitalism – private ownership and the dominance of market coordination – give rise to strong incentive mechanisms that encourage but owners and enterprise executives to innovate and to cooperate effectively. One of the main incentives is competition, especially oligopolistic competition. There are strong mutual effects among these three important tendencies. It is impossible to understand well Piketty’s main subject, the distribution of income and wealth, if it is divorced from the other two tendencies. The study ends with its author’s own value judgements on the favourable and harmful, unjust attributes of the capitalist system.

WHEN INTERACTING ONLINE LEADS TO TAKING ACTION OFFLINE: EXAMINING THE EFFECTS OF ONLINE PERSUASION ON IS USERS’ PRO-ENVIRONMENTAL BEHAVIOURS

With the increasing attention towards the role of information systems (IS) as a vehicle to address environmental issues, IS researchers and practitioners have strived to leverage advanced Green IS innovations to persuade people to engage in environmentally responsible practices and support pro-environmental initiatives. Yet, existing research reveals that the persuasion effects of Green IS designs remain equivocal. In particular, many design characteristics advocated in Green IS research can produce bi-directional changes in IS users’ attitudes and behaviours. To address this issue, this thesis drew upon the circumplex model of social values (S.H. Schwartz, 1992) to explain when and how online persuasion designs come to affect people’s judgements on resource conservation and environmental protection. Three sets of working propositions and specific hypotheses were developed. Specifically, this research suggests that the use of an IS application can elicit different value primes and draw IS users’ attentions to different motivational functions of engaging in suggested behavioural changes. It is expected that matching online persuasion appeals with IS users’ personal value priorities can increase users’ acceptance of online behavioural suggestions. Second, it is hypothesized that the persuasion effect tends to be weakened, as the system users become aware of the valuematching design in a given IS application. Third, it is proposed that different value primes presented in an IS application can result in different unintended effects on IS users’ global pro-environmental attitudes and motivations. The hypotheses were tested in the two pilot studies and two full-scale online experiments. The study findings generally support the main predictions of the hypotheses. On the one hand, this thesis providesiii empirical evidence that IS design for online persuasion can be instrumental in influencing IS users’ judgements on a range of resource conservation practices. On the other hand, this work explains why the effectiveness of IS-enabled online persuasion attempts needs to be measured not only in terms of the intended changes in a target behavioural domain but also in terms of unintended changes in people’s general environmental orientations. Findings in this research may bring a different perspective on understanding and assessing the influence of Green IS applications on IS users’ judgements and behaviou

Gender and politics in the devolved assemblies

The devolution of powers from Westminster to the Northern Ireland Assembly, the Scottish Parliament and the National Assembly for Wales led to much speculation about the creation of a new political era that would herald new ways of 'doing politics'. It was thought that the new institutions would provide a more inclusive, less combative culture that aimed to include a greater proportion of women members. With the 'new' institutions now over ten years old, linguistic research into the participation of men and women on the debate floor shows that they participate more equally and that improvements have been made in relation to the extent that women feel included. However, the devolved institutions retain some of the adversarial features associated with Westminster, and women are still subject to the burden of gendered stereotypical judgements and expectations that may affect their performance and inclusion within them.

A review of the welfare of dairy cows in continuously housed and pasture-based production systems.

There is increasing interest in the use of continuous housing systems for dairy cows, with various reasons put forward to advocate such systems. However, the welfare of dairy cows is typically perceived to be better within pasture-based systems, although such judgements are often not scientifically based. The aim of this review was to interrogate the existing scientific literature to compare the welfare, including health, of dairy cows in continuously housed and pasture-based systems. While summarising existing work, knowledge gaps and directions for future research are also identified. The scope of the review is broad, examining relevant topics under three main headings; health, behaviour, and physiology. Regarding health, cows on pasture-based systems had lower levels of lameness, hoof pathologies, hock lesions, mastitis, uterine disease, and mortality compared to cows on continuously housed systems. Pasture access also had benefits for dairy cow behaviour, in terms of grazing, improved lying / resting times, and lower levels of aggression. Moreover, when given the choice between pasture and indoor housing, cows showed an overall preference for pasture, particularly at night. However, the review highlighted the need for a deeper understanding of cow preference and behaviour. Potential areas for concern within pasture-based systems included physiological indicators of more severe negative energy balance, and in some situations, the potential for compromised welfare with exposure to unpredictable weather conditions. In summary, the results from this review highlight that there remain considerable animal welfare benefits from incorporating pasture access into dairy production systems.

Effectiveness of Community versus Hospital Eye Service follow-up for patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration with quiescent disease (ECHoES): a virtual non-inferiority trial

OBJECTIVES: To compare the ability of ophthalmologists versus optometrists to correctly classify retinal lesions due to neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD).

DESIGN: Randomised balanced incomplete block trial. Optometrists in the community and ophthalmologists in the Hospital Eye Service classified lesions from vignettes comprising clinical information, colour fundus photographs and optical coherence tomographic images. Participants' classifications were validated against experts' classifications (reference standard).

SETTING: Internet-based application.

PARTICIPANTS: Ophthalmologists with experience in the age-related macular degeneration service; fully qualified optometrists not participating in nAMD shared care.

INTERVENTIONS: The trial emulated a conventional trial comparing optometrists' and ophthalmologists' decision-making, but vignettes, not patients, were assessed. Therefore, there were no interventions and the trial was virtual. Participants received training before assessing vignettes.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome-correct classification of the activity status of a lesion based on a vignette, compared with a reference standard. Secondary outcomes-potentially sight-threatening errors, judgements about specific lesion components and participants' confidence in their decisions.

RESULTS: In total, 155 participants registered for the trial; 96 (48 in each group) completed all assessments and formed the analysis population. Optometrists and ophthalmologists achieved 1702/2016 (84.4%) and 1722/2016 (85.4%) correct classifications, respectively (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.25; p=0.543). Optometrists' decision-making was non-inferior to ophthalmologists' with respect to the prespecified limit of 10% absolute difference (0.298 on the odds scale). Optometrists and ophthalmologists made similar numbers of sight-threatening errors (57/994 (5.7%) vs 62/994 (6.2%), OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.57; p=0.789). Ophthalmologists assessed lesion components as present less often than optometrists and were more confident about their classifications than optometrists.

CONCLUSIONS: Optometrists' ability to make nAMD retreatment decisions from vignettes is not inferior to ophthalmologists' ability. Shared care with optometrists monitoring quiescent nAMD lesions has the potential to reduce workload in hospitals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN07479761; pre-results registration.