Role of price and enforcement in water allocation: Insights from Game Theory

As many countries are moving toward water sector reforms, practical issues of how water management institutions can better effect allocation, regulation, and enforcement of water rights have emerged. The problem of nonavailability of water to tailenders on an irrigation system in developing countries, due to unlicensed upstream diversions is well documented. The reliability of access or equivalently the uncertainty associated with water availability at their diversion point becomes a parameter that is likely to influence the application by users for water licenses, as well as their willingness to pay for licensed use. The ability of a water agency to reduce this uncertainty through effective water rights enforcement is related to the fiscal ability of the agency to monitor and enforce licensed use. In this paper, this interplay across the users and the agency is explored, considering the hydraulic structure or sequence of water use and parameters that define the users and the agency`s economics. The potential for free rider behavior by the users, as well as their proposals for licensed use are derived conditional on this setting. The analyses presented are developed in the framework of the theory of ""Law and Economics,`` with user interactions modeled as a game theoretic enterprise. The state of Ceara, Brazil, is used loosely as an example setting, with parameter values for the experiments indexed to be approximately those relevant for current decisions. The potential for using the ideas in participatory decision making is discussed. This paper is an initial attempt to develop a conceptual framework for analyzing such situations but with a focus on the reservoir-canal system water rights enforcement.

Numerical solution of the two-phase expansion of a metastable flashing liquid jet using the dispersion-controlled dissipative scheme

This paper presents a study of the stationary phenomenon of superheated or metastable liquid jets, flashing into a two-dimensional axisymmetric domain, while in the two-phase region. In general, the phenomenon starts off when a high-pressure, high-temperature liquid jet emerges from a small nozzle or orifice expanding into a low-pressure chamber, below its saturation pressure taken at the injection temperature. As the process evolves, crossing the saturation curve, one observes that the fluid remains in the liquid phase reaching a superheated condition. Then, the liquid undergoes an abrupt phase change by means of an oblique evaporation wave. Across this phase change the superheated liquid becomes a two-phase high-speed mixture in various directions, expanding to supersonic velocities. In order to reach the downstream pressure, the supersonic fluid continues to expand, crossing a complex bow shock wave. The balance equations that govern the phenomenon are mass conservation, momentum conservation, and energy conservation, plus an equation-of-state for the substance. A false-transient model is implemented using the shock capturing scheme: dispersion-controlled dissipative (DCD), which was used to calculate the flow conditions as the steady-state condition is reached. Numerical results with computational code DCD-2D vI have been analyzed. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On-line fault diagnostic system for proton exchange membrane fuel cells

In this paper, a supervisor system, able to diagnose different types of faults during the operation of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell is introduced. The diagnosis is developed by applying Bayesian networks, which qualify and quantify the cause-effect relationship among the variables of the process. The fault diagnosis is based on the on-line monitoring of variables easy to measure in the machine such as voltage, electric current, and temperature. The equipment is a fuel cell system which can operate even when a fault occurs. The fault effects are based on experiments on the fault tolerant fuel cell, which are reproduced in a fuel cell model. A database of fault records is constructed from the fuel cell model, improving the generation time and avoiding permanent damage to the equipment. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Storage as a tool to improve wood fuel quality

This work analysed the influence of storage in the quality of forest biomass for energy generation in the region of Lages, Brazil. Logs of Pinus taeda L. and Eucalyptus dunnii Maiden were harvested and piled during the four different seasons: spring, summer, fall and winter. The analyses were performed immediately after harvesting (without being stored), after two, four and six months of storage. The evaluated properties were: moisture content, gross and net calorific value, ash content and solubility in cold water, hot water and sodium hydroxide. The species composition, storage span, harvesting season and storage season influenced the forest biomass characteristics. In general, eucalyptus presented better results than pine, losing moisture faster, having less alteration in the chemical composition and producing greater energetic gain over storage time. For both species, the ideal storage time was four months. Furthermore, spring and summer were the best harvesting seasons. Thus, if the forest biomass is harvested at the end of winter or beginning of spring with subsequent storage during the summer, this biomass will have the best performance for energy production. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Competitiveness of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol compared to US corn ethanol

Corn ethanol produced in the US and sugarcane ethanol produced in Brazil are the world`s leading sources of biofuel. Current US biofuel policies create both incentives and constraints for the import of ethanol from Brazil and together with the cost competitiveness and greenhouse gas intensity of sugarcane ethanol compared to corn ethanol will determine the extent of these imports. This study analyzes the supply-side determinants of cost competitiveness and compares the greenhouse gas intensity of corn ethanol and sugarcane ethanol delivered to US ports. We find that while the cost of sugarcane ethanol production in Brazil is lower than that of corn ethanol in the US, the inclusion of transportation costs for the former and co-product credits for the latter changes their relative competitiveness. We also find that the relative cost of ethanol in the US and Brazil is highly sensitive to the prevailing exchange rate and prices of feedstocks. At an exchange rate of US$1=R$2.15 the cost of corn ethanol is 15% lower than the delivered cost of sugarcane ethanol at a US port. Sugarcane ethanol has lower GHG emissions than corn ethanol but a price of over $113 per ton of CO(2) is needed to affect competitiveness. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal irrigation depth for bean crops considering water constraints and farmer`s risk aversion level

Nowadays, the rising competition for the use of water and environmental resources with consequent restrictions for farmers should change the paradigm in terms of irrigation concepts, or rather, in order to attain economical efficiency other than to supply water requirement for the crop. Therefore, taking into account the social and economical role of bean activity in Brazil, as well as the risk inherent to crop due to its high sensibility to both deficit and excessive water, the optimization methods regarding to irrigation management have become more interesting and essential. This study intends to present a way to determine the optimal water supply, considering different combinations between desired bean yield and level of risk, bringing as a result a graph with the former associated with the latter, depending on different water depths.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

ECONOMICAL OCCUPATION OF AGRICULTURAL AREA OF PIRACICABA (SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL), INCLUDING RISK THROUGH LINEAR PROGRAMMING

The economic occupation of an area of 500 ha for Piracicaba was studied with the irrigated cultures of maize, tomato, sugarcane and beans, having used models of deterministic linear programming and linear programming including risk for the Target-Motad model, where two situations had been analyzed. In the deterministic model the area was the restrictive factor and the water was not restrictive for none of the tested situations. For the first situation the gotten maximum income was of R$ 1,883,372.87 and for the second situation it was of R$ 1,821,772.40. In the model including risk a producer that accepts risk can in the first situation get the maximum income of R$ 1,883,372. 87 with a minimum risk of R$ 350 year(-1), and in the second situation R$ 1,821,772.40 with a minimum risk of R$ 40 year(-1). Already a producer averse to the risk can get in the first situation a maximum income of R$ 1,775,974.81 with null risk and for the second situation R$ 1.707.706, 26 with null risk, both without water restriction. These results stand out the importance of the inclusion of the risk in supplying alternative occupations to the producer, allowing to a producer taking of decision considered the risk aversion and the pretension of income.

Phenolic composition of South American red wines classified according to their antioxidant activity, retail price and sensory quality

In this study, 73 South American red wines (Vitis vinifera) from 5 varietals were classified based on sensory quality, retail price and antioxidant activity and characterised in relation to their phenolic composition. ORAC and DPPH assays were assessed to determine the antioxidant activity, and sensory analysis was conducted by seven professional tasters using the Wine Spirits Education Trust`s structured scales. The use of multivariate statistical techniques allowed the identification of wines with the best combination of sensory characteristics, price and antioxidant activity. The most favourable varieties were Malbec, Cabernet Sauvignon, and Syrah produced in Chile and Argentina. Conversely, Pinot Noir wines displayed the lowest sensory characteristics and antioxidant activity. These results suggest that the volatile compounds may be the main substances responsible for differentiating red wines on the basis of sensory evaluation. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of a probiotic soy product on fecal microbiota and its association with cardiovascular risk factors in an animal model

Background: Previous work showed that daily ingestion of an aqueous soy extract fermented with Enterococcus faecium CRL 183 and Lactobacillus helveticus 416, supplemented or not with isoflavones, reduced the total cholesterol and non-HDL-cholesterol levels, increased the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) concentration and inhibited the raising of autoantibody against oxidized low-density lipoprotein (ox-LDL Ab) and the development of atherosclerotic lesions. Objective: The aim of this study was to characterize the fecal microbiota in order to investigate the possible correlation between fecal microbiota, serum lipid parameters and atherosclerotic lesion development in rabbits with induced hypercholesterolemia, that ingested the aqueous soy extract fermented with Enterococcus faecium CRL 183 and Lactobacillus helveticus 416. Methods: The rabbits were randomly allocated to five experimental groups (n = 6): control (C), hypercholesterolemic (H), hypercholesterolemic plus unfermented soy product (HUF), hypercholesterolemic plus fermented soy product (HF) and hypercholesterolemic plus isoflavone-supplemented fermented soy product (HIF). Lipid parameters and microbiota composition were analyzed on days 0 and 60 of the treatment and the atherosclerotic lesions were quantified at the end of the experiment. The fecal microbiota was characterized by enumerating the Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp., Enterococcus spp., Enterobacteria and Clostridium spp. populations. Results: After 60 days of the experiment, intake of the probiotic soy product was correlated with significant increases (P < 0.05) on Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp. and Enterococcus spp. and a decrease in the Enterobacteria population. A strong correlation was observed between microbiota composition and lipid profile. Populations of Enterococcus spp., Lactobacillus spp. and Bifidobacterium spp. were negatively correlated with total cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol, autoantibodies against oxidized LDL (ox-LDL Ab) and lesion size. HDL-C levels were positively correlated with Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp., and Enterococcus spp. populations. Conclusion: In conclusion, daily ingestion of the probiotic soy product, supplemented or not with isoflavones, may contribute to a beneficial balance of the fecal microbiota and this modulation is associated with an improved cholesterol profile and inhibition of atherosclerotic lesion development.

Titanium phosphate for Fuel Cell Proton Conduction Membranes

Environmental issues due to increases in emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are driving the development of clean energy delivery technologies such as fuel cells. Low temperature Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells (PEMFC) use hydrogen as a fuel and their only emission is water. While significant advances have been made in recent years, a major limitation of the current technology is the cost and materials limitations of the proton conduction membrane. The proton exchange membrane performs three critical functions in the PEMFC membrane electrode assembly (MEA): (i) conduction of protons with minimal resistance from the anode (where they are generated from hydrogen) to the cathode (where they combine with oxygen and electrons, from the external circuit or load), (ii) providing electrical insulation between the anode and cathode to prevent shorting, and (iii) providing a gas impermeable barrier to prevent mixing of the fuel (hydrogen) and oxidant. The PFSA (perfluorosulphonic acid) family of membranes is currently the best developed proton conduction membrane commercially available, but these materials are limited to operation below 100oC (typically 80oC, or lower) due to the thermochemical limitations of this polymer. For both mobile and stationary applications, fuel cell companies require more durable, cost effective membrane technologies capable of delivering enhanced performance at higher temperatures (typically 120oC, or higher. This is driving research into a wide range of novel organic and inorganic materials with the potential to be good proton conductors and form coherent membranes. There are several research efforts recently reported in the literature employing inorganic nanomaterials. These include functionalised silica phosphates [1,2], fullerene [3] titania phosphates [4], zirconium pyrophosphate [5]. This work addresses the functionalisation of titania particles with phosphoric acid. Proton conductivity measurements are given together with structural properties.

Functionalisation of nanoparticles as electrolytes in fuel cells

Inorganic metal oxide materials are generally poor proton conductors as conductivities are lower than 10-5-10-6 S.cm-1. However, by functionalising Silica, Zirconia or Titania, proton conduction increases by up to 5 orders of magnitude. Hence, functionalised nanomaterials are becoming very competitive against conventional electrolyte materials such as Nafion. In this work, sol-gel processes are employed to produce silica phosphate, zirconia phosphate and titania phosphate functionalised nanoparticles. Furthermore, conductivities at hydrate conditions are investigated, and nanoparticle formation and functionalisation effects on proton conductivity are discussed. Results show conductivities up to 10-1 S.cm-1 (95% RH). Proton conduction increases with the functionalisation content, however heat treatment of nanoparticles locks the functionality in the crystal phase, thus inhibiting proton conduction. Controlling the mesopore phase allows for high proton conduction at hydrated conditions, clearly indicating facilitated ion transport through the pore channels.