Metrics for solar wind prediction models: Comparison of empirical, hybrid, and physics-based schemes with 8 years of L1 observations

Space weather effects on technological systems originate with energy carried from the Sun to the terrestrial environment by the solar wind. In this study, we present results of modeling of solar corona-heliosphere processes to predict solar wind conditions at the L1 Lagrangian point upstream of Earth. In particular we calculate performance metrics for (1) empirical, (2) hybrid empirical/physics-based, and (3) full physics-based coupled corona-heliosphere models over an 8-year period (1995–2002). L1 measurements of the radial solar wind speed are the primary basis for validation of the coronal and heliosphere models studied, though other solar wind parameters are also considered. The models are from the Center for Integrated Space-Weather Modeling (CISM) which has developed a coupled model of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, from the solar photosphere to the terrestrial thermosphere. Simple point-by-point analysis techniques, such as mean-square-error and correlation coefficients, indicate that the empirical coronal-heliosphere model currently gives the best forecast of solar wind speed at 1 AU. A more detailed analysis shows that errors in the physics-based models are predominately the result of small timing offsets to solar wind structures and that the large-scale features of the solar wind are actually well modeled. We suggest that additional “tuning” of the coupling between the coronal and heliosphere models could lead to a significant improvement of their accuracy. Furthermore, we note that the physics-based models accurately capture dynamic effects at solar wind stream interaction regions, such as magnetic field compression, flow deflection, and density buildup, which the empirical scheme cannot.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

Turbulent flow at 190 m height above London during 2006-2008: A climatology and the applicability of similarity theory

Flow and turbulence above urban terrain is more complex than above rural terrain, due to the different momentum and heat transfer characteristics that are affected by the presence of buildings (e.g. pressure variations around buildings). The applicability of similarity theory (as developed over rural terrain) is tested using observations of flow from a sonic anemometer located at 190.3 m height in London, U.K. using about 6500 h of data. Turbulence statistics—dimensionless wind speed and temperature, standard deviations and correlation coefficients for momentum and heat transfer—were analysed in three ways. First, turbulence statistics were plotted as a function only of a local stability parameter z/Λ (where Λ is the local Obukhov length and z is the height above ground); the σ_i/u_* values (i = u, v, w) for neutral conditions are 2.3, 1.85 and 1.35 respectively, similar to canonical values. Second, analysis of urban mixed-layer formulations during daytime convective conditions over London was undertaken, showing that atmospheric turbulence at high altitude over large cities might not behave dissimilarly from that over rural terrain. Third, correlation coefficients for heat and momentum were analyzed with respect to local stability. The results give confidence in using the framework of local similarity for turbulence measured over London, and perhaps other cities. However, the following caveats for our data are worth noting: (i) the terrain is reasonably flat, (ii) building heights vary little over a large area, and (iii) the sensor height is above the mean roughness sublayer depth.

The calculation of force constants and normal co-ordinates II: methyl fluoride

The mathematical difficulties which can arise in the force constant refinement procedure for calculating force constants and normal co-ordinates are described and discussed. The method has been applied to the methyl fluoride molecule, using an electronic computer. The best values of the twelve force constants in the most general harmonic potential field were obtained to fit twenty-two independently observed experimental data, these being the six vibration frequencies, three Coriolis zeta constants and two centrifugal stretching constants DJ and DJK, for both CH3F and CD3F. The calculations have been repeated both with and without anharmonicity corrections to the vibration frequencies. All the experimental data were weighted according to the reliability of the observations, and the corresponding standard errors and correlation coefficients of the force constants have been deduced. The final force constants are discussed briefly, and compared with previous treatments, particularly with a recent Urey-Bradley treatment for this molecule.

Owls and rabbits: predation against substandard individuals of an easy prey

The interactions among the multiple factors regulating predator-prey relationships make predation a more complex process than previously thought. The degree to which substandard individuals are captured disproportionately seems to be better a function of the difficulty of prey capture than of the hunting techniques (coursing vs. ambushing predators). That is, when the capture and killing of a prey species is easy, substandard individuals will be predated in proportion to their occurrence in the prey population. In the present study, we made use of eagle owls Bubo bubo and their main prey, the rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus: (a) the brightness of the white tails of rabbits seems to be correlated with the physical condition of individuals, (b) by using the tails of predated rabbits as an index of individual condition, we found that eagle owls seem to prefer substandard individuals (characterized by duller tails), and (c) by using information from continuous radiotracking of 14 individuals, we suggest that the difficulty of rabbit capture could be low. Although the relative benefits of preying on substandard individuals should considerably decrease when a predator is attacking an easy prey, we hypothesise that the eagle owl preference for substandard individuals could be due to the easy detection of poor individuals by a visual cue, the brightness of the rabbit tail. Several elements allow us to believe that this form of visual communication between a prey and one of its main predators could be more widespread than previously thought. In fact: (a) visual signalling plays a relevant role in intraspecific communication in eagle owls and, consequently, visual signals could also play a role in interspecific interactions, and (b) empirical studies showed that signals may inform the predator that it has been perceived, or that the prey is in a sufficiently healthy state to elude the predator.

beta-arrestin binding to the beta(2)-adrenergic receptor requires both receptor phosphorylation and receptor activation

Homologous desensitization of beta(2)-adrenergic receptors has been shown to be mediated by phosphorylation of the agonist-stimulated receptor by G-protein-coupled receptor kinase 2 (GRK2) followed by binding of beta-arrestins to the phosphorylated receptor. Binding of beta-arrestin to the receptor is a prerequisite for subsequent receptor desensitization, internalization via clathrin-coated pits, and the initiation of alternative signaling pathways. In this study we have investigated the interactions between receptors and beta-arrestin2 in living cells using fluorescence resonance energy transfer. We show that (a) the initial kinetics of beta-arrestin2 binding to the receptor is limited by the kinetics of GRK2-mediated receptor phosphorylation; (b) repeated stimulation leads to the accumulation of GRK2-phosphorylated receptor, which can bind beta-arrestin2 very rapidly; and (c) the interaction of beta-arrestin2 with the receptor depends on the activation of the receptor by agonist because agonist withdrawal leads to swift dissociation of the receptor-beta-arrestin2 complex. This fast agonist-controlled association and dissociation of beta-arrestins from prephosphorylated receptors should permit rapid control of receptor sensitivity in repeatedly stimulated cells such as neurons.

Mining gene networks with application to GAW15 problem 1

The genetic analysis workshop 15 (GAW15) problem 1 contained baseline expression levels of 8793 genes in immortalised B cells from 194 individuals in 14 Centre d’Etude du Polymorphisme Humane (CEPH) Utah pedigrees. Previous analysis of the data showed linkage and association and evidence of substantial individual variations. In particular, correlation was examined on expression levels of 31 genes and 25 target genes corresponding to two master regulatory regions. In this analysis, we apply Bayesian network analysis to gain further insight into these findings. We identify strong dependences and therefore provide additional insight into the underlying relationships between the genes involved. More generally, the approach is expected to be applicable for integrated analysis of genes on biological pathways.

Postprandial lipemia and cardiovascular disease risk: interrelationships between dietary, physiological and genetic determinants

Although the independence of the association and causality has not been fully established, non-fasting (postprandial) triglyceride (TG) concentrations have emerged as a clinically significant cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor. In the current review, findings from three insightful prospective studies in the area, namely the Women's Health Study, the Copenhagen City Heart Study and the Norwegian Counties Study, are discussed. An overview is provided as to the likely etiological basis for the association between postprandial TG and CVD, with a focus on both lipid and non-lipid (inflammation, hemostasis and vascular function) risk factors. The impact of various lifestyle and physiological determinants are considered, in particular genetic variation and meal fat composition. Furthermore, although data is limited some information is provided as to the relative and interactive impact of a number of modulators of lipemia. It is evident that relative to age, gender and body mass index (known modulators of postprandial lipemia), the contribution of identified gene variants to the heterogeneity observed in the postprandial response is likely to be relatively small. Finally, we highlight the need for the development of a standardised ‘fat tolerance test’ for use in clinical trials, to allow the integration and comparison of data from individual studies

Multi-target out-of-sequence data association: tracking using graphical models

When performing data fusion, one often measures where targets were and then wishes to deduce where targets currently are. There has been recent research on the processing of such out-of-sequence data. This research has culminated in the development of a number of algorithms for solving the associated tracking problem. This paper reviews these different approaches in a common Bayesian framework and proposes an architecture that orthogonalises the data association and out-of-sequence problems such that any combination of solutions to these two problems can be used together. The emphasis is not on advocating one approach over another on the basis of computational expense, but rather on understanding the relationships among the algorithms so that any approximations made are explicit. Results for a multi-sensor scenario involving out-of-sequence data association are used to illustrate the utility of this approach in a specific context.

Multi-target out-of-sequence data association

In data fusion systems, one often encounters measurements of past target locations and then wishes to deduce where the targets are currently located. Recent research on the processing of such out-of-sequence data has culminated in the development of a number of algorithms for solving the associated tracking problem. This paper reviews these different approaches in a common Bayesian framework and proposes an architecture that orthogonalises the data association and out-of-sequence problems such that any combination of solutions to these two problems can be used together. The emphasis is not on advocating one approach over another on the basis of computational expense, but rather on understanding the relationships between the algorithms so that any approximations made are explicit.

Occurrence of Poecilochirus austroasiaticus (Acari: Parasitidae) in forensic autopsies and its application on postmortem interval estimation

Despite the fact that mites were used at the dawn of forensic entomology to elucidate the postmortem interval, their use in current cases remains quite low for procedural reasons such as inadequate taxonomic knowledge. A special interest is focused on the phoretic stages of some mite species, because the phoront-host specificity allows us to deduce in many occasions the presence of the carrier (usually Diptera or Coleoptera) although it has not been seen in the sampling performed in situ or in the autopsy room. In this article, we describe two cases where Poecilochirus austroasiaticus Vitzthum (Acari: Parasitidae) was sampled in the autopsy room. In the first case, we could sample the host, Thanatophilus ruficornis (Küster) (Coleoptera: Silphidae), which was still carrying phoretic stages of the mite on the body. That attachment allowed, by observing starvation/feeding periods as a function of the digestive tract filling, the establishment of chronological cycles of phoretic behavior, showing maximum peaks of phoronts during arrival and departure from the corpse and the lowest values in the phase of host feeding. From the sarcosaprophagous fauna, we were able to determine in this case a minimum postmortem interval of 10 days. In the second case, we found no Silphidae at the place where the corpse was found or at the autopsy, but a postmortem interval of 13 days could be established by the high specificity of this interspecific relationship and the departure from the corpse of this family of Coleoptera.

Genome-wide association mapping to candidate polymorphism resolution in the unsequenced barley genome

Although commonplace in human disease genetics, genome-wide association (GWA) studies have only relatively recently been applied to plants. Using 32 phenotypes in the inbreeding crop barley, we report GWA mapping of 15 morphological traits across ∼500 cultivars genotyped with 1,536 SNPs. In contrast to the majority of human GWA studies, we observe high levels of linkage disequilibrium within and between chromosomes. Despite this, GWA analysis readily detected common alleles of high penetrance. To investigate the potential of combining GWA mapping with comparative analysis to resolve traits to candidate polymorphism level in unsequenced genomes, we fine-mapped a selected phenotype (anthocyanin pigmentation) within a 140-kb interval containing three genes. Of these, resequencing the putative anthocyanin pathway gene HvbHLH1 identified a deletion resulting in a premature stop codon upstream of the basic helix-loop-helix domain, which was diagnostic for lack of anthocyanin in our association and biparental mapping populations. The methodology described here is transferable to species with limited genomic resources, providing a paradigm for reducing the threshold of map-based cloning in unsequenced crops.

Genetic variation in GABRB3 is associated with Asperger syndrome and multiple endophenotypes relevant to autism.

BACKGROUND: Autism spectrum conditions (ASC) are associated with deficits in social interaction and communication, alongside repetitive, restricted, and stereotyped behavior. ASC is highly heritable. The gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA)-ergic system has been associated consistently with atypicalities in autism, in both genetic association and expression studies. A key component of the GABA-ergic system is encoded by the GABRB3 gene, which has been previously implicated both in ASC and in individual differences in empathy. METHODS: In this study, 45 genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within GABRB3 were tested for association with Asperger syndrome (AS), and related quantitative traits measured through the following tests: the Empathy Quotient (EQ), the Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ), the Systemizing Quotient-Revised (SQ-R), the Embedded Figures Test (EFT), the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test (RMET), and the Mental Rotation Test (MRT). Two-loci, three-loci, four-loci haplotype analyses, and one seven-loci haplotype analysis were also performed in the AS case--control sample. RESULTS: Three SNPs (rs7180158, rs7165604, rs12593579) were significantly associated with AS, and two SNPs (rs9806546, rs11636966) were significantly associated with EQ. Two SNP-SNP pairs, rs12438141-rs1035751 and rs12438141-rs7179514, showed significant association with variation in the EFT scores. One SNP-SNP pair, rs7174437-rs1863455, was significantly associated with variation in the MRT scores. Additionally, a few haplotypes, including a 19 kb genomic region that formed a linkage disequilibrium (LD) block in our sample and contained several nominally significant SNPs, were found to be significantly associated with AS. CONCLUSION: The current study confirms the role of GABRB3 as an important candidate gene in both ASC and normative variation in related endophenotypes.

STX1A and Asperger syndrome: a replication study

Background Autism spectrum conditions (ASC) are a group of conditions characterized by difficulties in communication and social interaction, alongside unusually narrow interests and repetitive, stereotyped behaviour. Genetic association and expression studies have suggested an important role for the GABAergic circuits in ASC. Syntaxin 1A (STX1A) encodes a protein involved in regulation of serotonergic and GABAergic systems and its expression is altered in autism. Methods In this study, the association between three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (rs4717806, rs941298 and rs6951030) in STX1A gene and Asperger syndrome (AS) were tested in 650 controls and 479 individuals with AS, all of Caucasian ancestry. Results rs4717806 (P=0.00334) and rs941298 (P=0.01741) showed a significant association with AS, replicating previous results. Both SNPs putatively alter transcription factor binding sites both directly and through other variants in high linkage disequilibrium. Conclusions The current study confirms the role of STX1A as an important candidate gene in ASC. The exact molecular mechanisms through which STX1A contributes to the etiology remain to be elucidated.

SPI-23 of S.Derby: role in adherence and invasion of porcine tissues

Salmonella enterica serovars Derby and Mbandaka are isolated from different groups of livestock species in the UK. S. Derby is predominantly isolated from pigs and turkeys and S. Mbandaka is predominantly isolated from cattle and chickens. Alignment of the genome sequences of two isolates of each serovar led to the discovery of a new putative Salmonella pathogenicity island, SPI-23, in the chromosome sequence of S. Derby isolates. SPI-23 is 37 kb in length and contains 42 ORFs, ten of which are putative type III effector proteins. In this study we use porcine jejunum derived cell line IPEC-J2 and in vitro organ culture of porcine jejunum and colon, to characterise the association and invasion rates of S. Derby and S. Mbandaka, and tissue tropism of S. Derby respectively. We show that S. Derby invades and associates to an IPEC-J2 monolayer in significantly greater numbers than S. Mbandaka, and that S. Derby preferentially attaches to porcine jejunum over colon explants. We also show that nine genes across SPI-23 are up-regulated to a greater degree in the jejunum compared to the colon explants. Furthermore, we constructed a mutant of the highly up-regulated, pilV-like gene, potR, and find that it produces an excess of surface pili compared to the parent strain which form a strong agglutinating phenotype interfering with association and invasion of IPEC-J2 monolayers. We suggest that potR may play a role in tissue tropism.