Spatiotemporal model or time series model for assessing city-wide temperature effects on mortality?

Most studies examining the temperature–mortality association in a city used temperatures from one site or the average from a network of sites. This may cause measurement error as temperature varies across a city due to effects such as urban heat islands. We examined whether spatiotemporal models using spatially resolved temperatures produced different associations between temperature and mortality compared with time series models that used non-spatial temperatures. We obtained daily mortality data in 163 areas across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. We used ordinary kriging to interpolate spatial temperature variation across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. We used a spatiotemporal model to examine the impact of spatially resolved temperatures on mortality. Also, we used a time series model to examine non-spatial temperatures using a single site and the average temperature from three sites. We used squared Pearson scaled residuals to compare model fit. We found that kriged temperatures were consistent with observed temperatures. Spatiotemporal models using kriged temperature data yielded slightly better model fit than time series models using a single site or the average of three sites' data. Despite this better fit, spatiotemporal and time series models produced similar associations between temperature and mortality. In conclusion, time series models using non-spatial temperatures were equally good at estimating the city-wide association between temperature and mortality as spatiotemporal models.

Real - time prediction of rainfall induced instability of residual soil slopes associated with deep cracks

The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.

Assessing the short-term effects of heatwaves on mortality and morbidity in Brisbane, Australia : comparison of case-crossover and time series analyses

Background Heat-related impacts may have greater public health implications as climate change continues. It is important to appropriately characterize the relationship between heatwave and health outcomes. However, it is unclear whether a case-crossover design can be effectively used to assess the event- or episode-related health effects. This study examined the association between exposure to heatwaves and mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) from non-external causes in Brisbane, Australia, using both case-crossover and time series analyses approaches. Methods Poisson generalised additive model (GAM) and time-stratified case-crossover analyses were used to assess the short-term impact of heatwaves on mortality and EHAs. Heatwaves exhibited a significant impact on mortality and EHAs after adjusting for air pollution, day of the week, and season. Results For time-stratified case-crossover analysis, odds ratios of mortality and EHAs during heatwaves were 1.62 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.36–1.94) and 1.22 (95% CI: 1.14–1.30) at lag 1, respectively. Time series GAM models gave similar results. Relative risks of mortality and EHAs ranged from 1.72 (95% CI: 1.40–2.11) to 1.81 (95% CI: 1.56–2.10) and from 1.14 (95% CI: 1.06–1.23) to 1.28 (95% CI: 1.21–1.36) at lag 1, respectively. The risk estimates gradually attenuated after the lag of one day for both case-crossover and time series analyses. Conclusions The risk estimates from both case-crossover and time series models were consistent and comparable. This finding may have implications for future research on the assessment of event- or episode-related (e.g., heatwave) health effects.

Vulnerability and damage analysis of reinforced concrete framed buildings subjected to near field blast events

Terrorists usually target high occupancy iconic and public buildings using vehicle borne incendiary devices in order to claim a maximum number of lives and cause extensive damage to public property. While initial casualties are due to direct shock by the explosion, collapse of structural elements may extensively increase the total figure. Most of these buildings have been or are built without consideration of their vulnerability to such events. Therefore, the vulnerability and residual capacity assessment of buildings to deliberately exploded bombs is important to provide mitigation strategies to protect the buildings' occupants and the property. Explosive loads and their effects on a building have therefore attracted significant attention in the recent past. Comprehensive and economical design strategies must be developed for future construction. This research investigates the response and damage of reinforced concrete (RC) framed buildings together with their load bearing key structural components to a near field blast event. Finite element method (FEM) based analysis was used to investigate the structural framing system and components for global stability, followed by a rigorous analysis of key structural components for damage evaluation using the codes SAP2000 and LS DYNA respectively. The research involved four important areas in structural engineering. They are blast load determination, numerical modelling with FEM techniques, material performance under high strain rate and non-linear dynamic structural analysis. The response and damage of a RC framed building for different blast load scenarios were investigated. The blast influence region for a two dimensional RC frame was investigated for different load conditions and identified the critical region for each loading case. Two types of design methods are recommended for RC columns to provide superior residual capacities. They are RC columns detailing with multi-layer steel reinforcement cages and a composite columns including a central structural steel core. These are to provide post blast gravity load resisting capacity compared to typical RC column against a catastrophic collapse. Overall, this research broadens the current knowledge of blast and residual capacity analysis of RC framed structures and recommends methods to evaluate and mitigate blast impact on key elements of multi-storey buildings.

Mechanism based emulation of dynamic simulation models : concept and application in hydrology

Many model-based investigation techniques, such as sensitivity analysis, optimization, and statistical inference, require a large number of model evaluations to be performed at different input and/or parameter values. This limits the application of these techniques to models that can be implemented in computationally efficient computer codes. Emulators, by providing efficient interpolation between outputs of deterministic simulation models, can considerably extend the field of applicability of such computationally demanding techniques. So far, the dominant techniques for developing emulators have been priors in the form of Gaussian stochastic processes (GASP) that were conditioned with a design data set of inputs and corresponding model outputs. In the context of dynamic models, this approach has two essential disadvantages: (i) these emulators do not consider our knowledge of the structure of the model, and (ii) they run into numerical difficulties if there are a large number of closely spaced input points as is often the case in the time dimension of dynamic models. To address both of these problems, a new concept of developing emulators for dynamic models is proposed. This concept is based on a prior that combines a simplified linear state space model of the temporal evolution of the dynamic model with Gaussian stochastic processes for the innovation terms as functions of model parameters and/or inputs. These innovation terms are intended to correct the error of the linear model at each output step. Conditioning this prior to the design data set is done by Kalman smoothing. This leads to an efficient emulator that, due to the consideration of our knowledge about dominant mechanisms built into the simulation model, can be expected to outperform purely statistical emulators at least in cases in which the design data set is small. The feasibility and potential difficulties of the proposed approach are demonstrated by the application to a simple hydrological model.

Hybrid frequency–time domain models for dynamic response analysis of marine structures

Time-domain models of marine structures based on frequency domain data are usually built upon the Cummins equation. This type of model is a vector integro-differential equation which involves convolution terms. These convolution terms are not convenient for analysis and design of motion control systems. In addition, these models are not efficient with respect to simulation time, and ease of implementation in standard simulation packages. For these reasons, different methods have been proposed in the literature as approximate alternative representations of the convolutions. Because the convolution is a linear operation, different approaches can be followed to obtain an approximately equivalent linear system in the form of either transfer function or state-space models. This process involves the use of system identification, and several options are available depending on how the identification problem is posed. This raises the question whether one method is better than the others. This paper therefore has three objectives. The first objective is to revisit some of the methods for replacing the convolutions, which have been reported in different areas of analysis of marine systems: hydrodynamics, wave energy conversion, and motion control systems. The second objective is to compare the different methods in terms of complexity and performance. For this purpose, a model for the response in the vertical plane of a modern containership is considered. The third objective is to describe the implementation of the resulting model in the standard simulation environment Matlab/Simulink.

Fire resistance rating of light gauge steel frame walls exposed to realistic design fires : a review and development of time equivalent approach

This paper presents the details of research undertaken on the development of an energy based time equivalent approach for light gauge steel frame (LSF) walls. This research utilized an energy based time equivalent approach to obtain the fire resistance ratings (FRR) of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fires with respect to standard fire exposure [1]. It is based on the equal area concept of fire severity and relates to the amount of energy transferred to the member. The proposed method was used to predict the fire resistance of single and double plasterboard lined and externally insulated LSF walls. The predicted fire resistance ratings were compared with the results from finite element analyses and fire design rules for three different wall configurations. This paper presents the review of the available time equivalent approaches and the development of energy based time equivalent approach for the prediction of fire resistance ratings of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fires.

The sideways hourglass : establishing the lemniscate as a narrative structure for writing and reading non-linear stories

This thesis is a study in narratology that examines the pre-theoretical ideas that underlie the study of narrative and time. The thesis explores how the lemniscate can be transported from geometry to narrative in order to structure a non-linear story that breaks the rules of causality and chronology by coupling physical movement through space with the backward pull of memory. The findings offer new possibilities for understanding the nexus between shape and story and for recording non-linear narratives that are marked by simultaneity, counterpoint, and reversal.

Locally weighted learning methods for non-rigid robot control

This thesis develops a novel approach to robot control that learns to account for a robot's dynamic complexities while executing various control tasks using inspiration from biological sensorimotor control and machine learning. A robot that can learn its own control system can account for complex situations and adapt to changes in control conditions to maximise its performance and reliability in the real world. This research has developed two novel learning methods, with the aim of solving issues with learning control of non-rigid robots that incorporate additional dynamic complexities. The new learning control system was evaluated on a real three degree-of-freedom elastic joint robot arm with a number of experiments: initially validating the learning method and testing its ability to generalise to new tasks, then evaluating the system during a learning control task requiring continuous online model adaptation.

Effect of waiting time on health outcomes and service utilization : A prospective randomized study on patients admitted to hospital for hip or knee replacement

Although the principle of equal access to medically justified treatment has been promoted by official health policies in many Western health care systems, practices do not completely meet policy targets. Waiting times for elective surgery vary between patient groups and regions, and growing problems in the availability of services threaten equal access to treatment. Waiting times have come to the attention of decision-makers, and several policy initiatives have been introduced to ensure the availability of care within a reasonable time. In Finland, for example, the treatment guarantee came into force in 2005. However, no consensus exists on optimal waiting time for different patient groups. The purpose of this multi-centre randomized controlled trial was to analyse health-related quality of life, pain and physical function in total hip or knee replacement patients during the waiting time and to evaluate whether the waiting time is associated with patients health outcomes at admission. This study also assessed whether the length of waiting time is associated with social and health services utilization in patients awaiting total hip or knee replacement. In addition, patients health-related quality of life was compared with that of the general population. Consecutive patients with a need for a primary total hip or knee replacement due to osteoarthritis were placed on the waiting list between August 2002 and November 2003. Patients were randomly assigned to a short waiting time (maximum 3 months) or a non-fixed waiting time (waiting time not fixed in advance, instead the patient followed the hospitals routine practice). Patients health-related quality of life was measured upon being placed on the waiting list and again at hospital admission using the generic 15D instrument. Pain and physical function were evaluated using the self-report Harris Hip Score for hip patients and a scale modified from the Knee Society Clinical Rating System for knee patients. Utilization measures were the use of home health care, rehabilitation and social services, physician visits and inpatient care. Health and social services use was low in both waiting time groups. The most common services used while waiting were rehabilitation services and informal care, including unpaid care provided by relatives, neighbours and volunteers. Although patients suffered from clear restrictions in usual activities and physical functioning, they seemed primarily to lean on informal care and personal networks instead of professional care. While longer waiting time did not result in poorer health-related quality of life at admission and use of services during the waiting time was similar to that at the time of placement on the list, there is likely to be higher costs of waiting by people who wait longer simply because they are using services for a longer period. In economic terms, this would represent a negative impact of waiting. Only a few reports have been published of the health-related quality of life of patients awaiting total hip or knee replacement. These findings demonstrate that, in addition to physical dimensions of health, patients suffered from restrictions in psychological well-being such as depression, distress and reduced vitality. This raises the question of how to support patients who suffer from psychological distress during the waiting time and how to develop strategies to improve patients initiatives to reduce symptoms and the burden of waiting. Key words: waiting time, total hip replacement, total knee replacement, health-related quality of life, randomized controlled trial, outcome assessment, social service, utilization of health services

Non-linear response of a gyrostabilized platform to transient input

In this paper the response of a gyrostabilized platform subjected to a transient torque has been analyzed by deliberately introducing non-linearity into the command of the servomotor. The resulting third-order non-linear differential equation has been solved by using a transformation technique involving the displacement variable. The condition under which platform oscillations may grow with time or die with time are important from the point of view of platform stabilization. The effect of deliberate addition of non-linearity with a view to achieving the ideal response—that is, to bring the platform back to its equilibrium position with as few oscillations as possible—has been investigated. The conditions under which instability may set in on account of the small transient input and small non-linearity has also been discussed. The analysis is illustrated by means of a numerical example. The results of analysis are compared with numerical solutions obtained on a digital computer.

Nonlinear Control Design for an Air-breathing Engine with State Estimation

A nonlinear control design approach is presented in this paper for a challenging application problem of ensuring robust performance of an air-breathing engine operating at supersonic speed. The primary objective of control design is to ensure that the engine produces the required thrust that tracks the commanded thrust as closely as possible by appropriate regulation of the fuel flow rate. However, since the engine operates in the supersonic range, an important secondary objective is to ensure an optimal location of the shock in the intake for maximum pressure recovery with a sufficient margin. This is manipulated by varying the throat area of the nozzle. The nonlinear dynamic inversion technique has been successfully used to achieve both of the above objectives. In this problem, since the process is faster than the actuators, independent control designs have also been carried out for the actuators as well to assure the satisfactory performance of the system. Moreover, an extended Kalman Filter based state estimation design has been carried out both to filter out the process and sensor noises as well as to make the control design operate based on output feedback. Promising simulation results indicate that the proposed control design approach is quite successful in obtaining robust performance of the air-breathing system.

On the stability of a nonlinear system with periodic coefficients

A quasi-geometric stability criterion for feedback systems with a linear time invariant forward block and a periodically time varying nonlinear gain in the feedback loop is developed.

High-Rate Space-Time Coded Large-MIMO Systems: Low-Complexity Detection and Channel Estimation

In this paper, we present a low-complexity algorithm for detection in high-rate, non-orthogonal space-time block coded (STBC) large-multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems that achieve high spectral efficiencies of the order of tens of bps/Hz. We also present a training-based iterative detection/channel estimation scheme for such large STBC MIMO systems. Our simulation results show that excellent bit error rate and nearness-to-capacity performance are achieved by the proposed multistage likelihood ascent search (M-LAS) detector in conjunction with the proposed iterative detection/channel estimation scheme at low complexities. The fact that we could show such good results for large STBCs like 16 X 16 and 32 X 32 STBCs from Cyclic Division Algebras (CDA) operating at spectral efficiencies in excess of 20 bps/Hz (even after accounting for the overheads meant for pilot based training for channel estimation and turbo coding) establishes the effectiveness of the proposed detector and channel estimator. We decode perfect codes of large dimensions using the proposed detector. With the feasibility of such a low-complexity detection/channel estimation scheme, large-MIMO systems with tens of antennas operating at several tens of bps/Hz spectral efficiencies can become practical, enabling interesting high data rate wireless applications.

A particle filtering approach for structural system identification in vehicle–structure interaction problems

The problem of identification of parameters of a beam-moving oscillator system based on measurement of time histories of beam strains and displacements is considered. The governing equations of motion here have time varying coefficients. The parameters to be identified are however time invariant and consist of mass, stiffness and damping characteristics of the beam and oscillator subsystems. A strategy based on dynamic state estimation method, that employs particle filtering algorithms, is proposed to tackle the identification problem. The method can take into account measurement noise, guideway unevenness, spatially incomplete measurements, finite element models for supporting structure and moving vehicle, and imperfections in the formulation of the mathematical models. Numerical illustrations based on synthetic data on beam-oscillator system are presented to demonstrate the satisfactory performance of the proposed procedure.