A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Organic consumers' attitudes and preferences regarding alternatives to piglet castration without anaesthesia and analgesia in organic farming - an explorative analysis

In Germany and other European countries piglets are routinely castrated in order to avoid the occurrence of boar taint, an off-flavour and off-odour of pork. Sensory perception of boar taint varies; however, it is regarded as very unpleasant by many people. Surgical castration which is an effective means against boar taint has commonly been performed without anaesthesia or analgesia within the piglets’ first seven days of life. Piglet castration without anaesthesia has been heavily criticised, as the assumption that young piglets perceive less pain than older animals cannot be supported by scientific evidence. Consequently, surgical castration is only allowed with anaesthesia and/or analgesia in organic farming throughout the European Union since January 2012. Abandoning piglet castration without pain relief requires the implementation of alternative methods which improve animal welfare while maintaining sensory meat quality. There are three relevant alternatives: castration with anaesthesia and/or analgesia to reduce pain, a vaccination against boar taint (immunocastration) and the fattening of uncastrated male pigs (fattening of boars) combined with measures to reduce and detect boar taint in meat. Consumers’ attitudes and opinions regarding the alternatives are an important factor with regard to the implementation of alternatives, as they are finally supposed to buy the meat. The objective of this dissertation was to explore organic consumers’ attitudes, preferences and willingness-to-pay regarding piglet castration without pain relief and the three alternatives. Important aspects for the evaluation of the alternatives and influencing factors (e.g. information, taste) on preferences and willingness-to-pay should also be identified. In autumn 2009 nine focus group discussions were conducted each followed by a Vickrey auction including a tasting of boar salami. Overall, 89 consumers of organic pork participated in the study. Information on piglet castration and alternatives (in three variants) was provided as a basis for discussion. The focus group data were analysed using qualitative content analysis. In order to compare the focus group results with those from the auctions, an innovative approach applying an adapted scoring model to further analyse the data set was used. The majority of participants were not aware that piglets are castrated without anaesthesia in organic farming. They reacted shocked and disappointed on learning about this practice which did not fit into their image of animal welfare standards in organic farming. Overall, the results show, that for consumers of organic pork castration with anaesthesia and analgesia as well as the fattening of boars may be acceptable alternatives in organic farming. Considering the strong food safety concerns regarding immunocastration, acceptance of this alternative may be questioned. Communication regarding alternatives to piglet castration without anaesthesia and analgesia should take into account that the relevance of the aspects animal welfare, food safety, taste and costs differs between alternatives. Furthermore, it seems advisable not to address an unappetizing topic like piglet castration directly at the point of sale so as not to deter consumers from buying organic pork. The issue of piglet castration demonstrates exemplarily that it is important for the organic sector to implement and maintain high animal welfare standards and communicate them in an appropriate way, thereby trying to prevent strong discrepancies between consumers’ expectations regarding animal husbandry in organic farming and actual conditions. So, disappointment of consumers and a loss of image due to negative reports about animal welfare issues can be avoided.

Finding Spaces for Urban Food Production – Matching Spatial and Stakeholder Analysis with Urban Agriculture Approaches in the Urban Renewal Area of Dortmund-Hörde, Germany

Using the case of an economically declined neighbourhood in the post-industrial German Ruhr Area (sometimes characterized as Germany’s “Rust Belt”), we analyse, describe and conclude how urban agriculture can be used as a catalyst to stimulate and support urban renewal and regeneration, especially from a socio-cultural perspective. Using the methodological framework of participatory action research, and linking bottom-up and top-down planning approaches, a project path was developed to include the population affected and foster individual responsibility for their district, as well as to strengthen inhabitants and stakeholder groups in a permanent collective stewardship for the individual forms of urban agriculture developed and implemented. On a more abstract level, the research carried out can be characterized as a form of action research with an intended transgression of the boundaries between research, planning, design, and implementation. We conclude that by synchronously combining those four domains with intense feedback loops, synergies for the academic knowledge on the potential performance of urban agriculture in terms of sustainable development, as well as the benefits for the case-study area and the interests of individual urban gardeners can be achieved.

Implementation of global make to inventory strategy at BASF SE

La optimización y armonización son factores clave para tener un buen desempeño en la industria química. BASF ha desarrollado un proyecto llamada acelerador. El objetivo de este proyecto ha sido la armonización y la integración de los procesos de la cadena de suministro a nivel mundial. El proceso básico de manejo de inventarios se quedó fuera del proyecto y debía ser analizado. El departamento de manejo de inventarios en BASF SE ha estado desarrollando su propia estrategia para la definición de procesos globales de manufactura. En este trabajo se presentará un informe de las fases de la formulación de la estrategia y establecer algunas pautas para la fase de implementación que está teniendo lugar en 2012 y 2013.

Implementation of ‘School Back’ by the ‘Core’ technique in a factory of geotextiles to prevent back pain

Introduction: This article aims to show an alternative intervention for the prevention and control of back pain to the people of a production plant of geotextiles for the construction exposed to handling and awkward postures through the implementation of the Back School using the CORE technique. This technique being understood as trainer of the stability musculature of the spine; whose benefit is proportionate the muscular complex of the back, stability and avoid osteomuscular lesions and improved posture. Objective: To present the results about the implementation of the back school by the CORE technique for prevention of back pain in a population of forty-eight male collaborators. Materials and methods: The back school began with talks of awareness by the occupational health physician explaining the objectives and benefits of it to all participants. Once this activity was done, was continued to evaluate all plant employees to establish health status through the PAR-Q questionnaire, who were surveyed for the perception of pain using visual analog scale (VAS) and stability was determined column through the CORE assessment, to determine the training plan. Then, were made every six months the revaluations and implementation of a survey of assistant public perception to identify the impact of the implementation of the school back on the two variables referred (pain perception and stability of column). Results: The pain perception according VAS increased in the number of workers asymptomatic in 12% and based in the satisfaction survey 94% of population reported that with the development of this technique decrease the muscle fatigue in lumbar level; and 96% of population reported an improvement in the performance of their work activities. Discussion: Posterior to the analysis of all results, it is interpreted that back schools practice through CORE technique, contributes to the prevention and / or control of symptoms at the lumbar level in population of productive sector exposed to risks derived from the physical load, provided that ensure its continuously development and supervised for a competent professional.

Overcoming Gender Disadvantages. Social Policy Analysis of urban middle-class women in Colombia

The World Bank Report 2012 starts with this statement: “Gender equality matters in itself andit matters for development because, in today’s globalized worlds, countries that use the skillsand talents of their women would have an advantage over those which do not use it.” With theframe that suggest that gender equality matters, this paper describes some policy alternativesoriented to overcome gender disadvantages in the formal labor market incorporation of theurban middle class women in Colombia. On balance, the final recommendation suggest that itis desirable to adopt policy alternatives as Community Centers, which are programs orientedto a social redistribution of the domestic work as a way to encourage women participationin the formal labor market with the social support of the members of their own community.The problem that the social policy needs to address is the segregation of women in the formallabor market in Colombia. Although the evidence shows that the women overcome theeducational gap by showing better performance in education that their male peers, womenare still segregated of the labor market. The persistence of high rates of unemployment on thefemale population, the prevalence of the informal labor market as a women labor market, andthe presence of the payment difference between men and women with similar professionaltrainings are circumstances that sustain the segregation statement. These circumstances areinefficient for the society because an economic analysis shows that the cost of maintain the statuquo is externalized in the social security system that includes health, pension and maternityleave regimens. Therefore, the women segregation involves a market failure.This paper evaluates five policy alternatives each directed to the progress of a different causaldimension of the problem: (i) Quotas in the private market, (ii) Flexible working hours,(iii) replace the maternity leave with a family leave, (iv) Increase the Community Centers forredistributing the care work, and (v) Equal payment enforcement. The first alternative looksto increase women’s participation in the formal labor market. The second, third, and fourthalternatives constitute a package addressed at redistributing care work by reducing women’sresponsibility for reproductive work in the household with the help of husbands and the localgovernment. The fifth alternative intervenes to resolve the equal payment problem.After a four criteria evaluation that measure effectiveness, robustness and improbability inimplementation, efficiency and political acceptability or social opposition, the strongest alternativeis the fostering of Community Centers that promote a redistribution of care work. Thispolicy performs well in the assessment process because it combines gender focus with importantindirect effects: child support and human capabilities. The policy also shows a bottomup implementation process that overcomes the main adoption difficulties in the gender focusprograms and is supported by strong evidence of success in the Colombian context; this evidenceis produced by both transnational actors as a World Bank and also in local accountabilityreporters executed by local institutions like Colombian Institute of Family Welfare (ICBF).

Multidisciplinary analysis of clinical cases: a transition towards active learning in dental education

In the past 2009/10 academic year, we took steps towards introduction of active methodologies, from a multidisciplinar approach, into a conventional lecture-based Dental Education program. We consolidated these practices in the current 2010/11 year, already within a new Bologna-adapted scheme. Transition involved (i) critical assessment of the limitations of traditional teaching (ii) identification of specific learning topics allowing for integration of contents, (iii) implementation of student-centred learning activities in old curricular plans (iv) assessment of students' satisfaction and perceived learning outcomes, (v) implementation of these changes in new Bologna-adapted curricula

Implementation and application of basis set superposition error-correction schemes to the theoretical modeling of weak intermolecular interactions

This thesis deals with the so-called Basis Set Superposition Error (BSSE) from both a methodological and a practical point of view. The purpose of the present thesis is twofold: (a) to contribute step ahead in the correct characterization of weakly bound complexes and, (b) to shed light the understanding of the actual implications of the basis set extension effects in the ab intio calculations and contribute to the BSSE debate. The existing BSSE-correction procedures are deeply analyzed, compared, validated and, if necessary, improved. A new interpretation of the counterpoise (CP) method is used in order to define counterpoise-corrected descriptions of the molecular complexes. This novel point of view allows for a study of the BSSE-effects not only in the interaction energy but also on the potential energy surface and, in general, in any property derived from the molecular energy and its derivatives A program has been developed for the calculation of CP-corrected geometry optimizations and vibrational frequencies, also using several counterpoise schemes for the case of molecular clusters. The method has also been implemented in Gaussian98 revA10 package. The Chemical Hamiltonian Approach (CHA) methodology has been also implemented at the RHF and UHF levels of theory for an arbitrary number interacting systems using an algorithm based on block-diagonal matrices. Along with the methodological development, the effects of the BSSE on the properties of molecular complexes have been discussed in detail. The CP and CHA methodologies are used for the determination of BSSE-corrected molecular complexes properties related to the Potential Energy Surfaces and molecular wavefunction, respectively. First, the behaviour of both BSSE-correction schemes are systematically compared at different levels of theory and basis sets for a number of hydrogen-bonded complexes. The Complete Basis Set (CBS) limit of both uncorrected and CP-corrected molecular properties like stabilization energies and intermolecular distances has also been determined, showing the capital importance of the BSSE correction. Several controversial topics of the BSSE correction are addressed as well. The application of the counterpoise method is applied to internal rotational barriers. The importance of the nuclear relaxation term is also pointed out. The viability of the CP method for dealing with charged complexes and the BSSE effects on the double-well PES blue-shifted hydrogen bonds is also studied in detail. In the case of the molecular clusters the effect of high-order BSSE effects introduced with the hierarchical counterpoise scheme is also determined. The effect of the BSSE on the electron density-related properties is also addressed. The first-order electron density obtained with the CHA/F and CHA/DFT methodologies was used to assess, both graphically and numerically, the redistribution of the charge density upon BSSE-correction. Several tools like the Atoms in Molecules topologycal analysis, density difference maps, Quantum Molecular Similarity, and Chemical Energy Component Analysis were used to deeply analyze, for the first time, the BSSE effects on the electron density of several hydrogen bonded complexes of increasing size. The indirect effect of the BSSE on intermolecular perturbation theory results is also pointed out It is shown that for a BSSE-free SAPT study of hydrogen fluoride clusters, the use of a counterpoise-corrected PES is essential in order to determine the proper molecular geometry to perform the SAPT analysis.

The automation and evaluation of nested clade phylogeographic analysis

Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) is a popular method for reconstructing the demographic history of spatially distributed populations from genetic data. Although some parts of the analysis are automated, there is no unique and widely followed algorithm for doing this in its entirety, beginning with the data, and ending with the inferences drawn from the data. This article describes a method that automates NCPA, thereby providing a framework for replicating analyses in an objective way. To do so, a number of decisions need to be made so that the automated implementation is representative of previous analyses. We review how the NCPA procedure has evolved since its inception and conclude that there is scope for some variability in the manual application of NCPA. We apply the automated software to three published datasets previously analyzed manually and replicate many details of the manual analyses, suggesting that the current algorithm is representative of how a typical user will perform NCPA. We simulate a large number of replicate datasets for geographically distributed, but entirely random-mating, populations. These are then analyzed using the automated NCPA algorithm. Results indicate that NCPA tends to give a high frequency of false positives. In our simulations we observe that 14% of the clades give a conclusive inference that a demographic event has occurred, and that 75% of the datasets have at least one clade that gives such an inference. This is mainly due to the generation of multiple statistics per clade, of which only one is required to be significant to apply the inference key. We survey the inferences that have been made in recent publications and show that the most commonly inferred processes (restricted gene flow with isolation by distance and contiguous range expansion) are those that are commonly inferred in our simulations. However, published datasets typically yield a richer set of inferences with NCPA than obtained in our random-mating simulations, and further testing of NCPA with models of structured populations is necessary to examine its accuracy.

The automation of nested clade phylogeographic analysis

ANeCA is a fully automated implementation of Nested Clade Phylogeographic Analysis. This was originally developed by Templeton and colleagues, and has been used to infer, from the pattern of gene sequence polymorphisms in a geographically structured population, the historical demographic processes that have shaped its evolution. Until now it has been necessary to perform large parts of the procedure manually. We provide a program that will take data in Nexus sequential format, and directly output a set of inferences. The software also includes TCS v1.18 and GeoDis v2.2 as part of automation.

The role of the Hellenic food safety authority in Greece: implementation strategies

During the last 15 years, a series of food scares and crises (BSE, dioxin. foot and mouth disease) have seriously under-mined public confidence in food producers and operators and their capacity to produce safe food. As a result, food safety has become a top priority of the European legislative authorities and systems of national food control have been tightened up and have included the establishment of the European Food Safety Authority. In Greece a law creating the Hellenic Food Safety Authority has been approved. The main objectives of this Authority are to promote the food security to consumers and inform them of any changes or any development in the food and health sector. The paper reviews the general structure of the current food control system in Greece. It describes the structure and the mission of the Hellenic Food Safety Authority and explains the strategy to carry out inspections and the analysis of the preliminary results of such inspections. Details are also given of the personnel training and certification and accreditation standards to be met by the Authority by the end of 2004. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hygiene assessment system (HAS) scores: an analysis of the available data from English slaughterhouses

As control systems have developed and the implications of poor hygienic practices have become better known, the evaluation of the hygienic status of premises has become more critical. The assessment of the overall status of premises hygiene call provide useful management data indicating whether the premises are improving or whether, whilst still meeting legal requirements, they might be failing to maintain previously high standards. Since the creation, for the United Kingdom, of the meat hygiene service (MHS), one of the aims of the service was to monitor hygiene on different premises to provide a means of comparing standards and to identify and encourage improvements. This desire led to the implementation of a scoring system known as the hygiene assessment system (HAS). This paper analyses English slaughterhouses HAS scores between 1998 and 2005 outlining the main incidents throughout this period, Although rising initially, the later results displayed a clear decrease in the general hygiene scores. These revealing results coincide with the start of a new meat inspection system where, after several years of discussion, risk based inspection is finally coming to a reality within Europe. The paper considers the implications of these changes in the way hygiene standards will be monitored in the future.

Multivariable cluster analysis for high-speed industrial machinery

The overall operation and internal complexity of a particular production machinery can be depicted in terms of clusters of multidimensional points which describe the process states, the value in each point dimension representing a measured variable from the machinery. The paper describes a new cluster analysis technique for use with manufacturing processes, to illustrate how machine behaviour can be categorised and how regions of good and poor machine behaviour can be identified. The cluster algorithm presented is the novel mean-tracking algorithm, capable of locating N-dimensional clusters in a large data space in which a considerable amount of noise is present. Implementation of the algorithm on a real-world high-speed machinery application is described, with clusters being formed from machinery data to indicate machinery error regions and error-free regions. This analysis is seen to provide a promising step ahead in the field of multivariable control of manufacturing systems.

Implementation of a new urban energy budget scheme into MetUM. Part II: Validation against observations and model intercomparison

In the first part of this article, we introduced a new urban surface scheme, the Met Office – Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme (MORUSES), into the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) and compared its impact on the surface fluxes with respect to the current urban scheme. In this second part, we aim to analyze further the reasons behind the differences. This analysis is conducted by a comparison of the performance of the two schemes against observations and against a third model, the Single Column Reading Urban model (SCRUM). The key differences between the three models lie in how each model incorporates the heat stored in the urban fabric and how the surface-energy balance is coupled to the underlying substrate. The comparison of the models with observations from Mexico City reveals that the performance of MORUSES is improved if roof insulation is included by minimizing the roof thickness. A comparison of MORUSES and SCRUM reveals that, once insulation is included within MORUSES, these two models perform equally well against the observations overall, but that there are differences in the details of the simulations at the roof and canyon level. These differences are attributed to the different representations of the heat-storage term, specifically differences in the dominant frequencies captured by the urban canopy and substrate, between the models. These results strongly suggest a need for an urban model intercomparison exercise. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

Implementation of a new urban energy budget scheme in the MetUM. Part I: Description and idealized simulations

This paper describes the formulation of a new urban scheme, MORUSES (Met Office–Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme) for use in the Met Office Unified Model. The implementation of the new scheme ensures that (1) the new scheme offers more flexibility in the parametrization of the building properties, and hence provides a more realistic representation of the fluxes; (2) the bulk outputs are in satisfactory agreement with previous observational studies; and (3) the impact of the new scheme on the energy balance fluxes is similar to the impact of the current urban scheme when set up to mimic it. As well as having a better physical basis, MORUSES also gains in flexibility in applications and adaptations to different urban materials as well as urban planning. The new scheme represents the urban area as a composition of two tiles, a canyon and a roof, using a simple 2D geometry. Sensitivity analysis to canyon geometry and thickness of the roof canopy emphasizes the gain in flexibility captured by the new scheme. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright