What Belongs Where? Variable Selection for Zero-Inflated Count Models with an Application to the Demand for Health Care

This paper develops stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) for zero-inflated count models which are commonly used in health economics. This allows for either model averaging or model selection in situations with many potential regressors. The proposed techniques are applied to a data set from Germany considering the demand for health care. A package for the free statistical software environment R is provided.

Regional Policy Spillovers: The National Impact of Demand-Side Policy in an Interregional Model of the UK Economy

UK regional policy has been advocated as a means of reducing regional disparities and stimulating national growth. However, there is limited understanding of the interregional and national effects of such a policy. This paper uses an interregional computable general equilibrium model to identify the national impact of a policy-induced regional demand shock under alternative labour market closures. Our simulation results suggest that regional policy operating solely on the demand side has significant national impacts. Furthermore, the effects on the non-target region are particularly sensitive to the treatment of the regional labour market.

An investigation of the determinants of household demand for bushmeat in the Serengeti using an open-ended choice experiment

Illegal hunting for bushmeat is regarded as an important cause of biodiversity decline in Africa. We use a stated preferences method to obtain information on determinants of demand for bushmeat in villages around the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. We estimate the effects of changes in the own price of bushmeat and in the prices of two substitute protein sources – fish and chicken. Promoting the availability of protein substitutes at lower prices would be effective at reducing pressures on wildlife. Supply-side measures that raise the price of bushmeat would also be effective.

Quantifying rates of landscape evolution and tectonic processes by thermochronology and numerical modeling of crustal heat transport using PECUBE

PECUBE is a three-dimensional thermal-kinematic code capable of solving the heat production-diffusion-advection equation under a temporally varying surface boundary condition. It was initially developed to assess the effects of time-varying surface topography (relief) on low-temperature thermochronological datasets. Thermochronometric ages are predicted by tracking the time-temperature histories of rock-particles ending up at the surface and by combining these with various age-prediction models. In the decade since its inception, the PECUBE code has been under continuous development as its use became wider and addressed different tectonic-geomorphic problems. This paper describes several major recent improvements in the code, including its integration with an inverse-modeling package based on the Neighborhood Algorithm, the incorporation of fault-controlled kinematics, several different ways to address topographic and drainage change through time, the ability to predict subsurface (tunnel or borehole) data, prediction of detrital thermochronology data and a method to compare these with observations, and the coupling with landscape-evolution (or surface-process) models. Each new development is described together with one or several applications, so that the reader and potential user can clearly assess and make use of the capabilities of PECUBE. We end with describing some developments that are currently underway or should take place in the foreseeable future. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal exponent heat balance and refined integral methods applied to Stefan problems

When using a polynomial approximating function the most contentious aspect of the Heat Balance Integral Method is the choice of power of the highest order term. In this paper we employ a method recently developed for thermal problems, where the exponent is determined during the solution process, to analyse Stefan problems. This is achieved by minimising an error function. The solution requires no knowledge of an exact solution and generally produces significantly better results than all previous HBI models. The method is illustrated by first applying it to standard thermal problems. A Stefan problem with an analytical solution is then discussed and results compared to the approximate solution. An ablation problem is also analysed and results compared against a numerical solution. In both examples the agreement is excellent. A Stefan problem where the boundary temperature increases exponentially is analysed. This highlights the difficulties that can be encountered with a time dependent boundary condition. Finally, melting with a time-dependent flux is briefly analysed without applying analytical or numerical results to assess the accuracy.

Service offshoring and the skill composition of labor demand

This paper studies the effects of service offshoring on the skill composition of labor demand, using novel comparable data for nine Western European countries between 1990 and 2004. The empirical analysis delivers three main results. First, service offshoring is skill-biased, because it increases the demand for high and medium skilled labor and decreases the demand for low skilled labor. Second, the effects of service offshoring are similar to those of material offshoring, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Third, the economic magnitude of these effects is not large.

Application of standard and refined heat balance integral methods to one-dimensional Stefan problems

The work in this paper concerns the study of conventional and refined heat balance integral methods for a number of phase change problems. These include standard test problems, both with one and two phase changes, which have exact solutions to enable us to test the accuracy of the approximate solutions. We also consider situations where no analytical solution is available and compare these to numerical solutions. It is popular to use a quadratic profile as an approximation of the temperature, but we show that a cubic profile, seldom considered in the literature, is far more accurate in most circumstances. In addition, the refined integral method can give greater improvement still and we develop a variation on this method which turns out to be optimal in some cases. We assess which integral method is better for various problems, showing that it is largely dependent on the specified boundary conditions.

Gaussian estimates for the density of the non-linear stochastic heat equation in any space dimension

In this paper, we establish lower and upper Gaussian bounds for the probability density of the mild solution to the stochastic heat equation with multiplicative noise and in any space dimension. The driving perturbation is a Gaussian noise which is white in time with some spatially homogeneous covariance. These estimates are obtained using tools of the Malliavin calculus. The most challenging part is the lower bound, which is obtained by adapting a general method developed by Kohatsu-Higa to the underlying spatially homogeneous Gaussian setting. Both lower and upper estimates have the same form: a Gaussian density with a variance which is equal to that of the mild solution of the corresponding linear equation with additive noise.

A never-ending debate: Demand versus supply water policies. A CGE analysis for Catalonia

Water scarcity is a long-standing problem in Catalonia, as there are significant differences in the spatial and temporal distribution of water through the territory. There has consequently been a debate for many years about whether the solution to water scarcity must be considered in terms of efficiency or equity, the role that the public sector must play and the role that market-based instruments should play in water management. The aim of this paper is to use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the advantages and disadvantages associated with different policy instruments, from both a supply and a demand viewpoint, which can be applied to water management in Catalonia. We also introduce an ecological sector in our CGE model, allowing us to analyze the environmental impact of the alternative policies simulated. The calibration of the exogenous variables of the CGE model is performed by using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Catalan economy with 2001 data. The results suggest that taking into account the principle of sustainability of the resource, the policy debate between supply and demand in water policies is obsolete, and a new combination of policies is required to respect the different values associated with water. Keywords: Water Policies; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Economic Effects; Environmental Effects.

Improving the accuracy of heat balance integral methods applied to thermal problems with time dependent boundary conditions

In this paper the two main drawbacks of the heat balance integral methods are examined. Firstly we investigate the choice of approximating function. For a standard polynomial form it is shown that combining the Heat Balance and Refined Integral methods to determine the power of the highest order term will either lead to the same, or more often, greatly improved accuracy on standard methods. Secondly we examine thermal problems with a time-dependent boundary condition. In doing so we develop a logarithmic approximating function. This new function allows us to model moving peaks in the temperature profile, a feature that previous heat balance methods cannot capture. If the boundary temperature varies so that at some time t & 0 it equals the far-field temperature, then standard methods predict that the temperature is everywhere at this constant value. The new method predicts the correct behaviour. It is also shown that this function provides even more accurate results, when coupled with the new CIM, than the polynomial profile. Analysis primarily focuses on a specified constant boundary temperature and is then extended to constant flux, Newton cooling and time dependent boundary conditions.

Activation of the heat shock response in plants by chlorophenols: transgenic Physcomitrella patens as a sensitive biosensor for organic pollutants.

The ability to detect early molecular responses to various chemicals is central to the understanding of biological impact of pollutants in a context of varying environmental cues. To monitor stress responses in a model plant, we used transgenic moss Physcomitrella patens expressing the beta-glucuronidase reporter (GUS) under the control of the stress-inducible promoter hsp17.3B. Following exposure to pollutants from the dye and paper industry, GUS activity was measured by monitoring a fluorescent product. Chlorophenols, heavy metals and sulphonated anthraquinones were found to specifically activate the hsp17.3B promoter (within hours) in correlation with long-term toxicity effects (within days). At mildly elevated physiological temperatures, the chemical activation of this promoter was strongly amplified, which considerably increased the sensitivity of the bioassay. Together with the activation of hsp17.3B promoter, chlorophenols induced endogenous chaperones that transiently protected a recombinant thermolabile luciferase (LUC) from severe heat denaturation. This sensitive bioassay provides an early warning molecular sensor to industrial pollutants under varying environments, in anticipation to long-term toxic effects in plants. Because of the strong cross-talk between abiotic and chemical stresses that we find, this P. patens line is more likely to serve as a direct toxicity bioassay for pollutants combined with environmental cues, than as an indicator of absolute toxicity thresholds for various pollutants. It is also a powerful tool to study the role of heat shock proteins (HSPs) in plants exposed to combined chemical and environmental stresses.

Survival and Molting Incidence after Heat and Cold Shocks in Panstrongylus megistus Burmeister

Survival and molting incidence were studied after heat (40°C) and cold (0°C) shocks in specimens of Panstrongylus megistus with the aim of establishing its response to temperature stress under laboratory rearing conditions and to understand occasional changes in the biological characteristics of specimens captured in nature. The response to the thermal shocks was found to vary as a function of the temperature and duration of the shock, developmental phase and sex of the specimens, and in certain cases, the insect habit and nourishment conditions. P. megistus specimens were found to be less resistant to the heat shock assay than Triatoma infestans, another reduviid species. The short cold shock affected survival of P. megistus more than did the heat shock, survival of fully-nourished specimens being preferential. The response of adults to the short cold shock was affected by sex, males being generally less resistant. The insect sylvatic habit was found to seldom affect the thermal shock response established for specimens with domestic habit. A decrease in molting frequency and sometimes a slowdown of the molting rate were found after the short heat and cold shocks, possibly promoted by change in hormonal balance, and differing from patterns reported for T. infestans. The results indicate that no generalization should be made for different reduviid species in terms of the effects of temperature shocks.

Recombinant " Physcomitrella patens " as a sensitive tool to study heat sensing and heat-shock signal transduction in plants

SUMMARY When exposed to heat stress, plants display a particular set of cellular and molecular responses, such as chaperones expression, which are highly conserved in all organisms. In chapter 1, I studied the ability of heat shock genes to become transiently and abundantly induced under various temperature regimes. To this aim, I designed a highly sensitive heat-shock dependent conditional gene expression system in the moss Physcomitrella patens, using the soybean heatinducible promoter (hsp17.3B). Heat-induced expression of various reporter genes was over three orders of magnitude, in tight correlation with the intensity and duration of the heat treatments. By performing repeated heating/cooling cycles, a massive accumulation of recombinant proteins was obtained. Interestingly, the hsp17.3B promoter was also activated by specific organic chemicals. Thus, in chapter 2, I took advantage of the extreme sensitivity of this promoter to small temperature variations to further address the role of various natural and organic chemicals and develop a plant based-bioassay that can serve as an early warning indicator of toxicity by pollutants and heavy metals. A screen of several organic pollutants from textile and paper industry showed that chlorophenols as well as sulfonated anthraquinones elicited a heat shock like response at noninducing temperatures. Their effects were synergistically amplified by mild elevated temperatures. In contrast to standard methods of pollutant detection, this plant-based biosensor allowed to monitor early stress-responses, in correlation with long-term toxic effect, and to attribute effective toxicity thresholds for pollutants, in a context of varying environmental cues. In chapter 3, I deepened the study of the primary mechanism by which plants sense mild temperature variations and trigger a cellular signal leading to the heat shock response. In addition to the above described heat-inducible reporter line, I generated a P. patens transgenic line to measure, in vivo, variations of cytosolic calcium during heat treatment, and another line to monitor the role of protein unfolding in heat-shock sensing and signalling. The heat shock signalling pathway was found to be triggered by the plasma membrane, where temperature up shift specifically induced the transient opening of a putative high afimity calcium channel. The calcium influx triggered a signalling cascade leading to the activation of the heat shock genes, independently on the presence of misfolded proteins in the cytoplasm. These results strongly suggest that changes in the fluidity of the plasma membrane are the primary trigger of the heatshocksignalling pathway in plants. The present thesis contributes to the understanding of the basic mechanism by which plants perceive and respond to heat and chemical stresses. This may contribute to developing appropriate better strategies to enhance plant productivity under the increasingly stressful environment of global warming. RÉSUME Les plantes exposées à des températures élevées déclenchent rapidement des réponses cellulaires qui conduisent à l'induction de gènes codant pour les heat shock proteins (HSPs). En fonction de la durée d'exposition et de la vitesse à laquelle la température augmente, les HSPs sont fortement et transitoirement induites. Dans le premier chapitre, cette caractéristique aété utilisée pour développer un système inductible d'expression de gènes dans la mousse Physcomitrella patens. En utilisant plusieurs gènes rapporteurs, j'ai montré que le promoteur du gène hsp17.3B du Soja est activé d'une manière. homogène dans tous les tissus de la mousse proportionnellement à l'intensité du heat shock physiologique appliqué. Un très fort taux de protéines recombinantes peut ainsi être produit en réalisant plusieurs cycles induction/recovery. De plus, ce promoteur peut également être activé par des composés organiques, tels que les composés anti-inflammatoires, ce qui constitue une bonne alternative à l'induction par la chaleur. Les HSPs sont induites pour remédier aux dommages cellulaires qui surviennent. Étant donné que le promoteur hsp17.3B est très sensible à des petites augmentations de température ainsi qu'à des composés chimiques, j'ai utilisé les lignées développées dans le chapitre 1 pour identifier des polluants qui déclenchent une réaction de défense impliquant les HSPs. Après un criblage de plusieurs composés, les chlorophénols et les antraquinones sulfonés ont été identifiés comme étant activateurs du promoteur de stress. La détection de leurs effets a été réalisée seulement après quelques heures d'exposition et corrèle parfaitement avec les effets toxiques détectés après de longues périodes d'exposition. Les produits identifiés montrent aussi un effet synergique avec la température, ce qui fait du biosensor développé dans ce chapitre un bon outil pour révéler les effets réels des polluants dans un environnement où les stress chimiques sont combinés aux stress abiotiques. Le troisième chapitre est consacré à l'étude des mécanismes précoces qui permettent aux plantes de percevoir la chaleur et ainsi de déclencher une cascade de signalisation spécifique qui aboutit à l'induction des gènes HSPs. J'ai généré deux nouvelles lignées afin de mesurer en temps réel les changements de concentrations du calcium cytosolique ainsi que l'état de dénaturation des protéines au cours du heat shock. Quand la fluidité de la membrane augmente après élévation de la température, elle semble induire l'ouverture d'un canal qui permet de faire entrer le calcium dans les cellules. Ce dernier initie une cascade de signalisation qui finit par activer la transcription des gènes HSPs indépendamment de la dénaturation de protéines cytoplasmiques. Les résultats présentés dans ce chapitre montrent que la perception de la chaleur se fait essentiellement au niveau de la membrane plasmique qui joue un rôle majeur dans la régulation des gènes HSPs. L'élucidation des mécanismes par lesquels les plantes perçoivent les signaux environnementaux est d'une grande utilité pour le développement de nouvelles stratégies afin d'améliorer la productivité des plantes soumises à des conditions extrêmes. La présente thèse contribue à décortiquer la voie de signalisation impliquée dans la réponse à la chaleur.

Nuclear phenotype changes after heat shock in Panstrongylus megistus (Burmeister)

The nuclear phenotypes of Malpighian tubule epithelial cells of male nymphs of the blood-sucking insect, Panstrongylus megistus, subjected to short- and long-duration heat shocks at 40ºC were analyzed immediately after the shock and 10 and 30 days later. Normal nuclei with a usual heterochromatic body as well as phenotypes indicative of survival (unravelled heterochromatin, giants) and death (apoptosis, necrosis) responses were observed in control and treated specimens. However, all nuclear phenotypes, except the normal ones, were more frequent in shocked specimens. Similarly altered phenotypes have also been reported in Triatoma infestans following heat shock, although at different frequencies. The frequency of the various nuclear phenotypes observed in this study suggests that the forms of cell survival observed were not sufficient or efficient enough to protect all of the Malpighian tubule cells from the deleterious effects of stress. In agreement with studies on P. megistus survival following heat shock, only long-duration shock produced strongly deleterious effects.