Cities at risk: status of Italian planning system in reducing seismic and hydrological risks

Italy and its urban systems are under high seismic and hydrogeological risks. The awareness about the role of human activities in the genesis of disasters is achieved in the scientific debate, as well as the role of urban and regional planning in reducing risks. The paper reviews the state of Italian major cities referred to hydrogeological and seismic risk by: 1) extrapolating data and maps about seismic hazard and landslide risk concerning cities with more than 50.000 inhabitants and metropolitan contexts, and 2) outlining how risk reduction is framed in Italian planning system (at national and regional levels). The analyses of available data and the review of the normative framework highlight the existing gaps in addressing risk reduction: nevertheless a wide knowledge about natural risks afflicting Italian territory and an articulated regulatory framework, the available data about risks are not exhaustive, and risk reduction policies and multidisciplinary pro-active approaches are only partially fostered and applied.

Sense-making in theory and practice: a metatheoretical foundation and application for health information seeking

This thesis attempts to provide deeper historical and theoretical grounding for sense-making, thereby illustrating its applicability to practical information seeking research. In Chapter One I trace the philosophical origins of Brenda Dervin’s theory known as “sense making,” reaching beyond current scholarship that locates the origins of sense-making in twentieth-century Phenomenology and Communication theory and find its rich ontological, epistemological, and etymological heritage that dates back to the Pre-Socratics. After exploring sense-making’s Greek roots, I examine sense-making’s philosophical undercurrents found in Hegel’s Phenomenology of Spirit (1807), where he also returns to the simplicity of the Greeks for his concept of sense. With Chapter Two I explore sense-making methodology and find, in light of the Greek and Hegelian dialectic, a dialogical bridge connecting sense-making’s theory with pragmatic uses. This bridge between Dervin’s situation and use occupies a distinct position in sense-making theory. Moreover, building upon Brenda Dervin’s model of sense-making, I use her metaphors of gap and bridge analogy to discuss the dialectic and dialogic components of sense making. The purpose of Chapter Three is pragmatic – to gain insight into the online information-seeking needs, experiences, and motivation of first-degree relatives (FDRs) of breast cancer survivors through the lens of sense-making. This research analyses four questions: 1) information-seeking behavior among FDRs of cancer survivors compared to survivors and to undiagnosed, non-related online cancer information seekers in the general population, 2) types of and places where information is sought, 3) barriers or gaps and satisfaction rates FDRs face in their cancer information quest, and 4) types and degrees of cancer information and resources FDRs want and use in their information search for themselves and other family members. An online survey instrument designed to investigate these questions was developed and pilot tested. Via an email communication, the Susan Love Breast Cancer Research Foundation distributed 322,000 invitations to its membership to complete the survey, and from March 24th to April 5th 10,692 women agreed to take the survey with 8,804 volunteers actually completing survey responses. Of the 8,804 surveys, 95% of FDRs have searched for cancer information online, and 84% of FDRs use the Internet as a sense-making tool for additional information they have received from doctors or nurses. FDRs report needing much more information than either survivors or family/friends in ten out of fifteen categories related to breast and ovarian cancer. When searching for cancer information online, FDRs also rank highest in several of sense-making’s emotional levels: uncertainty, confusion, frustration, doubt, and disappointment than do either survivors or friends and family. The sense-making process has existed in theory and praxis since the early Greeks. In applying sense–making’s theory to a contemporary problem, the survey reveals unaddressed situations and gaps of FDRs’ information search process. FDRs are a highly motivated group of online information seekers whose needs are largely unaddressed as a result of gaps in available online information targeted to address their specific needs. Since FDRs represent a quarter of the population, further research addressing their specific online information needs and experiences is necessary.

Heart failure in young adults

Heart failure (HF) is a major health concern affecting 15 million people in Europe and around 900 000 people in the U.K. HF predominantly affects the elderly, with the mean age of patients with a diagnosis of HF between 70 and 80 years. Most previous HF studies have accordingly focused on older patients. Although HF is less common in younger adults (<65 years), 15% to 20% of patients hospitalised with HF are younger than 60 years of age. Very few studies have described the characteristics of younger adults with HF and its outcome. The aims of this thesis are to describe the clinical characteristics of younger adults with HF, explore the epidemiology of HF in younger adults and determine their short- and long-term outcomes. This was made possible by access multiple databases consisting of large patient cohorts with HF. The first chapter is a systematic literature review of younger adults with HF. Gaps in the current literature were identified and the thesis focused on some of these. The CHARM study allows detail characterisations of younger adults with HF. It recorded characteristics of patients with HF, including symptoms and signs of HF, electrocardiographic changes, chest radiographic findings, and also left ventricular ejection fraction. HF hospitalisations and its precipitating factors were also recorded systematically. Younger adults were more likely to have a third heart sound and hepatomegaly, but less likely to have pulmonary crackles and peripheral oedema. Similarly, radiological findings in younger adults were less likely to show interstitial pulmonary oedema or pleural effusion. Interestingly, younger adults aged <40 years not only have similar HF hospitalisation rate to older patients, however during their presentation with decompensated HF, they were less likely to have clinical pulmonary oedema and radiological signs of HF. Physicians managing younger adults with HF need to be aware of this. Younger adults were also less compliant with medications and lifestyle restriction resulting in hospitalisation with decompensated HF. Fortunately, despite these challenges, mortality rates in younger adults with HF were lower compared to older patients. To further substantiate the findings from the CHARM study, the MAGGIC study, a meta-analysis consists of over 40 000 patients with HF from large observational studies and randomised controlled trials, was examined. In both databases, the commonest aetiology of HF in younger adults was dilated cardiomyopathy. The ejection fraction was the lowest in younger adults. Similar to the CHARM study, mortality rates in younger adults were lower compared to older patients. However, in the MAGGIC study, by stratifying mortality into patients with preserved ejection fraction and with reduced ejection fraction, younger patients with preserved ejection fraction have a much lower mortality rate compared to patients with reduced ejection fraction. Findings from clinical trials are not always reflective of the real life clinical practice. The U.K. Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a large and well-validated primary care database with 654 practices contributing information into the database representing approximated 8% of the U.K. population, is a rich dataset offering a unique opportunity to examine the characteristics, treatments, and outcomes of younger adults with HF in the community. In contrast to the CHARM and MAGGIC studies, younger adults aged <40 years were stratified into 20-29 and 30-39 years in the CPRD analysis. This is possible due to the larger number of younger adults with HF. Further stratifying the younger age groups demonstrated heterogeneity among younger adults with HF. In contrast to previous data showing younger adults have lower co-morbidities, the proportions of depression, chronic kidney disease, asthma, and any connective tissue disease were high among patients aged 20-29 years in the analysis from the CPRD. Surprisingly, the treatment rates for angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, and aldosterone antagonist were the lowest in patients aged 20-29 years. With the exception of patients aged ≥80 years, treatment rate with beta-blocker was also the lowest in patients aged 20-29 years. With over two decades of follow up, long-term mortality rates in younger adults with HF can be determined. The mortality rates continued to decline from 1988 to 2011. Physicians managing younger adults with HF can now use this contemporary data to provide prognostic information to patients and their family. A hospital administrative database is the logical next platform to explore younger adults with HF. The Alberta Ministry of Health database links an outpatient database to a hospitalisation database providing ample data to examine the relationship between outpatient clinic visits and hospital admissions in younger adults with HF. Following a diagnosis of HF in the outpatient setting, younger adults were admitted to the hospital with decompensated HF much sooner than older patients. Younger adults also presented to emergency department more frequently following their first hospitalisation for HF. In conclusion, this thesis presented the characteristics and outcomes of younger adults with HF, and helped to extend our current understanding on this important topic. I hope the data presented here will benefit not only physicians looking after younger adults with HF, but also patients and their family.

Final report of the fisheries catch assessment survey conducted in December 2015 on the Ugandan waters of Lake Victoria

This CAS report provides estimates of the quantities of fish landed in the riparian districts sharing the Ugandan waters of Lake Victoria; the monetary value of the fish catches; the contribution of different fish species to the catches; and the trends in fish catch rates, and the monthly catches for the sampled month since the beginning of harmonized CAS activities in July 2005 to December 2015. The report also compares the annual catch and gross beach value of catch landings in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2014 and 2015. A total of 15 CASs have been undertaken in the Uganda sector of the lake with data gaps in 2009, 2012 and 2013 due to financial constraints. The annual catch estimates for the years 2010, 2011, 2014 and 2015 were based on one sampling covering the rainy season and may not capture changes that could occur in dry season. There is need to include dry season sampling in future surveys.

Genetic Suppressors of mrp-5 Lethality in C. elegans

Heme is an essential cofactor in numerous proteins, but is also cytotoxic. Thus, directed pathways must exist for regulating heme homeostasis. C. elegans is a powerful genetic animal model for elucidating these pathways because it is a heme auxotroph. Worms acquire dietary heme though HRG-1-related importers, and intestinal export was demonstrated to be mediated by the ABC transporter MRP-5. Loss of mrp-5 results in embryonic lethality. Although heme transporters have been identified, there are significant gaps in our understanding for the heme trafficking beyond HRG-1 and MRP-5. To identify additional components, we conducted a forward genetic screen utilizing the null allele mrp-5(ok2067). Screening of 160,000 haploid genomes yielded thirty-two mrp-5(ok2067) suppressor mutants. Deep-sequencing variant analysis revealed three of the suppressors subunits of adapter protein complex 3 (AP-3). We now seek to identify mechanisms for how adaptor protein deficiencies bypass a defect in MRP-5-mediated heme export.

Using the Scharff-technique to elicit information: how to effectively establish the “illusion of knowing it all”?

The Scharff-technique is used for eliciting information from human sources. At the very core of the technique is the “illusion of knowing it all” tactic, which aims to inflate a source's perception of how much knowledge an interviewer holds about the event to be discussed. For the current study, we mapped the effects following two different ways of introducing this particular tactic; a traditional way of implementation where the interviewer explicitly states that s/he already knows most of the important information (the traditional condition), and a new way of implementation where the interviewer just starts to present the information that s/he holds (the just start condition). The two versions were compared in two separate experiments. In Experiment 1 (N = 60), we measured the participants’ perceptions of the interviewer's knowledge, and in Experiment 2 (N = 60), the participants’ perceptions of the interviewer's knowledge gaps. We found that participants in the just start condition (a) believed the interviewer had more knowledge (Experiment 1), and (b) searched less actively for gaps in the interviewer's knowledge (Experiment 2), compared to the traditional condition. We will discuss the current findings and how sources test and perceive the knowledge his or her interviewer possesses within a framework of social hypothesis testing.

Health spending, illicit financial flows and tax incentives in Malawi

This analysis examines the gaps in health care financing in Malawi and how foregone taxes could fill these gaps. It begins with an assessment of the disease burden and government health expenditure. Then it analyses the tax revenues foregone by the government of Malawi by two main routes • Illicit financial flows (IFF) from the country • Tax incentives. We find that there are significant financing gaps in the health sector; for example, government expenditure is United States Dollars (USD) 177 million for 2013/2014 while projected donor contribution in 2013/2014 is USD 207 million and the total cost for the minimal health package is USD 535 million. Thus the funding gap between the government budget for health and the required spending to provide the minimal package for 2013/2014 is USD 358 million. On the other hand we estimate that almost USD 400million is lost through IFF and corporate utilization of tax incentives each year. The revenues foregone plus the current government health spending would be sufficient to cover the minimal public health package for all Malawians and would help tackle Malawi’s disease burden. Every effort must be made, including improving transparency and revising laws, to curtail IFF and moderate tax incentives.

Exploring the Function and Regulation of Arabidopsis EIN2 in Ethylene Signaling

Ethylene is an essential plant hormone involved in nearly all stages of plant growth and development. EIN2 (ETHYLENE INSENSITIVE2) is a master positive regulator in the ethylene signaling pathway, consisting of an N-terminal domain and a C-terminal domain. The EIN2 N-terminal domain localizes to the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) membrane and shows sequence similarity to Nramp metal ion transporters. The cytosolic C-terminal domain is unique to plants and signals downstream. There have been several major gaps in our knowledge of EIN2 function. It was unknown how the ethylene signal gets relayed from the known upstream component CTR1 (CONSTITUTIVE RESPONSE1) a Ser/Thr kinase at the ER, to EIN2. How the ethylene signal was transduced from EIN2 to the next downstream component transcription factor EIN3 (ETHYLENE INSENSITIVE3) in the nucleus was also unknown. The N-terminal domain of EIN2 shows homology to Nramp metal ion transporters and whether EIN2 can also function as a metal transporter has been a question plaguing the ethylene field for almost two decades. Here, EIN2 was found to interact with the CTR1 protein kinase, leading to the discovery that CTR1 phosphorylates the C-terminal domain of EIN2 in Arabidopsis thaliana. Using tags at the termini of EIN2, it was deduced that in the presence of ethylene, the EIN2 C-terminal domain is cleaved and translocates into the nucleus, where it could somehow activate downstream ethylene responses. The EIN2 C-terminal domain interacts with nuclear proteins, RTE3 and EER5, which are components of the TREX-2 mRNA export complex, although the role of these interactions remains unclear. The EIN2 N-terminal domain was found to be capable of divalent metal transport when expressed in E. coli and S. cerevisiae leading to the hypothesis that metal transport plays a role in ethylene signaling. This hypothesis was tested using a novel missense allele, ein2 G36E, substituting a highly conserved residue that is required for metal transport in Nramp proteins. This G36E substitution did not disrupt metal ion transport of EIN2, but the ethylene insensitive phenotype of this mutant indicates that the EIN2 N-terminal domain is important for positively regulating the C-terminal domain. The defect of the ein2 G36E mutant does not prevent proper expression or subcellular localization, but might affect protein modifications. The ein2 G36E allele is partially dominant, mostly likely displaying haploinsufficiency. Overexpression of the EIN2 N-terminal domain in the ein2 G36E mutant did not rescue ethylene insensitivity, suggesting the N-terminal domain functions in cis to regulate the C-terminal domain. These findings advance our knowledge of EIN2, which is critical to understanding ethylene signaling.

Pneumonia and influenza: specific considerations in care homes

This review provides an update on current evidence surrounding epidemiology, treatment and prevention of lower respiratory tract infection, with special reference to pneumonia and influenza, in care home residents. The care home sector is growing and provides a unique ecological niche for infections, housing frail older people with multiple comorbidities and frequent contact with healthcare services. There are therefore considerations in the epidemiology and management of these conditions which are specific to care homes. Opportunities for prevention, in the form of vaccination strategies and improving oral hygiene, may reduce the burden of these diseases in the future. Work is needed to research these infections specifically in the care home setting and this article highlights current gaps in our knowledge.

Character in Context: Informing Character Education Programming

The Positive Youth Development (PYD) perspective is a strength-based conceptualization of youth. It highlights the importance of mutually beneficial relationships between youth and their environment to develop the “Five Cs”, key assets that include character. Character has long been a subject of programming due to its focus on helping children lead moral, empathic, and prosocial lives. There are, however, many limitations in character research, including poorly operationalized definitions of character; a failure to examine the developmental and broader social context in which character exists; and a lack of evaluation of more practical character programming. The goal of this dissertation was to address these gaps in knowledge and inform the character education programming literature. The first study examined the relationships among age, gender, the school social context, and character. Moral character was negatively associated with grade, and being a girl was positively associated with moral character. The relationships between positive peer interactions at school and character (fairness, integrity) were stronger among students who reported low initial moral character when positive peer interactions was high. In the second study, the Build Character: Build Success Program, a character education program, was evaluated over six months to examine its effects on character behaviours, victimization, and school climate. No program effects were found for students in grades 1 to 3, but a slight decrease in victimization in one experimental school was found for students in grades 4 to 8. This lack of general program effects may be due to the short-term nature of the intervention, which may not have been long enough to result in measurable behaviour change. Implementation data indicated that teachers did not teach all program elements, which also may have influenced the results of the program evaluation. The present dissertation contributes to knowledge about character and its programming by: introducing new measures to operationalize character, discovering developmental patterns in character in school-aged children, highlighting gender differences in character, examining character within its broad social context, and evaluating short-term character education programming.

Informationen verzweifelt gesucht – Enterprise Search in österreichischen Großunternehmen

Die Arbeit geht dem Status quo der unternehmensweiten Suche in österreichischen Großunternehmen nach und beleuchtet Faktoren, die darauf Einfluss haben. Aus der Analyse des Ist-Zustands wird der Bedarf an Enterprise-Search-Software abgeleitet und es werden Rahmenbedingungen für deren erfolgreiche Einführung skizziert. Die Untersuchung stützt sich auf eine im Jahr 2009 durchgeführte Onlinebefragung von 469 österreichischen Großunternehmen (Rücklauf 22 %) und daran anschließende Leitfadeninterviews mit zwölf Teilnehmern der Onlinebefragung. Der theoretische Teil verortet die Arbeit im Kontext des Informations- und Wissensmanagements. Der Fokus liegt auf dem Ansatz der Enterprise Search, ihrer Abgrenzung gegenüber der Suche im Internet und ihrem Leistungsspektrum. Im empirischen Teil wird zunächst aufgezeigt, wie die Unternehmen ihre Informationen organisieren und welche Probleme dabei auftreten. Es folgt eine Analyse des Status quo der Informationssuche im Unternehmen. Abschließend werden Bekanntheit und Einsatz von Enterprise-Search-Software in der Zielgruppe untersucht sowie für die Einführung dieser Software nötige Rahmenbedingungen benannt. Defizite machen die Befragten insbesondere im Hinblick auf die übergreifende Suche im Unternehmen und die Suche nach Kompetenzträgern aus. Hier werden Lücken im Wissensmanagement offenbar. 29 % der Respondenten der Onlinebefragung geben zudem an, dass es in ihren Unternehmen gelegentlich bis häufig zu Fehlentscheidungen infolge defizitärer Informationslagen kommt. Enterprise-Search-Software kommt in 17 % der Unternehmen, die sich an der Onlinebefragung beteiligten, zum Einsatz. Die durch Enterprise-Search-Software bewirkten Veränderungen werden grundsätzlich positiv beurteilt. Alles in allem zeigen die Ergebnisse, dass Enterprise-Search-Strategien nur Erfolg haben können, wenn man sie in umfassende Maßnahmen des Informations- und Wissensmanagements einbettet.

When a Change in Level of Care Results in a Transfer Between Programs

This project was chosen to investigate the criteria, process, procedures and policies in place for transferring patients of the Charleston Dorchester Mental Health Center between programs due to a change in their level of care in efforts to make the process more consistent and prevent or reduce gaps in care for patients.

Numerical simulation of fresh SCC flow in wall and beam elements using flow dynamics models

Abstract : Recently, there is a great interest to study the flow characteristics of suspensions in different environmental and industrial applications, such as snow avalanches, debris flows, hydrotransport systems, and material casting processes. Regarding rheological aspects, the majority of these suspensions, such as fresh concrete, behave mostly as non-Newtonian fluids. Concrete is the most widely used construction material in the world. Due to the limitations that exist in terms of workability and formwork filling abilities of normal concrete, a new class of concrete that is able to flow under its own weight, especially through narrow gaps in the congested areas of the formwork was developed. Accordingly, self-consolidating concrete (SCC) is a novel construction material that is gaining market acceptance in various applications. Higher fluidity characteristics of SCC enable it to be used in a number of special applications, such as densely reinforced sections. However, higher flowability of SCC makes it more sensitive to segregation of coarse particles during flow (i.e., dynamic segregation) and thereafter at rest (i.e., static segregation). Dynamic segregation can increase when SCC flows over a long distance or in the presence of obstacles. Therefore, there is always a need to establish a trade-off between the flowability, passing ability, and stability properties of SCC suspensions. This should be taken into consideration to design the casting process and the mixture proportioning of SCC. This is called “workability design” of SCC. An efficient and non-expensive workability design approach consists of the prediction and optimization of the workability of the concrete mixtures for the selected construction processes, such as transportation, pumping, casting, compaction, and finishing. Indeed, the mixture proportioning of SCC should ensure the construction quality demands, such as demanded levels of flowability, passing ability, filling ability, and stability (dynamic and static). This is necessary to develop some theoretical tools to assess under what conditions the construction quality demands are satisfied. Accordingly, this thesis is dedicated to carry out analytical and numerical simulations to predict flow performance of SCC under different casting processes, such as pumping and tremie applications, or casting using buckets. The L-Box and T-Box set-ups can evaluate flow performance properties of SCC (e.g., flowability, passing ability, filling ability, shear-induced and gravitational dynamic segregation) in casting process of wall and beam elements. The specific objective of the study consists of relating numerical results of flow simulation of SCC in L-Box and T-Box test set-ups, reported in this thesis, to the flow performance properties of SCC during casting. Accordingly, the SCC is modeled as a heterogeneous material. Furthermore, an analytical model is proposed to predict flow performance of SCC in L-Box set-up using the Dam Break Theory. On the other hand, results of the numerical simulation of SCC casting in a reinforced beam are verified by experimental free surface profiles. The results of numerical simulations of SCC casting (modeled as a single homogeneous fluid), are used to determine the critical zones corresponding to the higher risks of segregation and blocking. The effects of rheological parameters, density, particle contents, distribution of reinforcing bars, and particle-bar interactions on flow performance of SCC are evaluated using CFD simulations of SCC flow in L-Box and T-box test set-ups (modeled as a heterogeneous material). Two new approaches are proposed to classify the SCC mixtures based on filling ability and performability properties, as a contribution of flowability, passing ability, and dynamic stability of SCC.

The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease at the wildlife-livestock interface in northern Tanzania

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.

How to enhance Geobotany in the frame of the renewed Biological Sciences?

In recent decades the importance of structuring sciences such as botany or phytosociology faced a declining attention from the scientific community. This was accompanied by a growing interest in theoretical ecology. For such scenario greatly contributed an hypothetical exhaustion of research topics in these areas, but especially the introduction of new technologies that have provided powerful tools for data analysis. This allowed, for example, to make predictions about the impacts of climate change on species and plant communities and the consequent recognition of theoretical ecology, as one of the most prestigious pieces of current biological sciences. However, theoretical ecology has been facing serious knoledge gaps that greatly compromise their results, putting again the spotligth on structuring sciences. For example there are enourmous gaps in knowledge and data on dispersal, species and communities chorology and abundace, as well as in biological interactions. These data is essential, since they will determine ecological behavior of species. Its omission always limits the understanding and proper execution of the models generated by theoretical ecology. In this conference we will present a review on the gaps in knowledge and data in flora and vegetation fields in order to identify situations where geobotanical knowledge can make their major contribution. Furthermore, we will emphasize the need to reformulate objectives in geobotanical sciences in order to give it the deserved scientific recognition, considering the relationship between different scientific knowledges.