Missouri River Flood Recovery, November 18, 2012 Vol. 1, no. 2

The Missouri River Flood Recovery newsletter is published by the Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Division in cooperation with members of the Missouri River Recovery Coordination Task Force.

Missouri River Flood Recovery, December 23, 2012 Vol. 1, no. 4

The Missouri River Flood Recovery newsletter is published by the Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Division in cooperation with members of the Missouri River Recovery Coordination Task Force.

Missouri River Flood Coordination Task Force Report, September 25, 2011

The Missouri River floods of 2011 will go down in history as the longest duration flooding event this state has seen to date. The combination of above normal snowfall in the upper Missouri River basin followed by the equivalent of nearly one year’s worth of rainfall in May created an above normal runoff situation which filled the Missouri River and the six main reservoirs within the basin. Compounding this problem was colder than normal temperatures which kept much of the snowpack in the upper basin on the ground longer into the spring, setting the stage for this historic event. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) began increasing the outflow at Gavin’s Point, near Yankton, South Dakota in May. On June 14, 2011, the outflow reached a record rate of over 160,000 cubic feet per second (cfs), over twice the previous record outflow set in 1997. This increased output from Gavin’s Point caused the Missouri River to flow out of its banks covering over 283,000 acres of land in Iowa, forcing hundreds of evacuations, damaging 255,000 acres of cropland and significantly impacting the levee system on the Missouri River basin. Over the course of the summer, approximately 64 miles of primary roads closed due to Missouri River flooding, including 54 miles of Interstate Highway. Many county secondary roads were closed by high water or overburdened due to the numerous detours and road closures in this area. As the Missouri River levels began to increase, municipalities and counties aided by State and Federal agencies began preparing for a sustained flood event. Citizens, businesses, state agencies, local governments and non‐profits made substantial preparations, in some cases expending millions of dollars on emergency protective measures to protect their facilities from the impending flood. Levee monitors detected weak spots in the levee system in all affected counties, with several levees being identified as at risk levees that could potentially fail. Of particular concern was the 28 miles of levees protecting Council Bluffs. Based on this concern, Council Bluffs prepared an evacuation plan for the approximately 30,000 residents that resided in the protected area. On May 25, 2011, Governor Branstad directed the execution of the Iowa Emergency Response Plan in accordance with Section 401 of the Stafford Act. On May 31, 2011, HSEMD Administrator, Brigadier General J. Derek Hill, formally requested the USACE to provide technical assistance and advanced measures for the communities along the Missouri River basin. On June 2, 2011 Governor Branstad issued a State of Iowa Proclamation of Disaster Emergency for Fremont, Harrison, Mills, Monona, Pottawattamie, and Woodbury counties. The length of this flood event created a unique set of challenges for Federal, State and local entities. In many cases, these organizations were conducting response and recovery operations simultaneously. Due to the length of this entire event, the State Emergency Operations Center and the local Emergency Operations Centers remained open for an extended period of time, putting additional strain on many organizations and resources. In response to this disaster, Governor Branstad created the Missouri River Recovery Coordination Task Force to oversee the State’s recovery efforts. The Governor announced the creation of this Task Force on October 17, 2011 and appointed Brigadier General J. Derek Hill, HSEMD Administrator as the chairman. This Task Force would be a temporary group of State agency representatives and interested stakeholders brought together to support the recovery efforts of the Iowa communities impacted by the Missouri River Flood. Collectively, this group would analyze and share damage assessment data, coordinate assistance across various stakeholders, monitor progress, capture best practices and identify lessons learned.

Effects of urban development on the flood-flow characteristics of the Walnut Creek Basin, Des Moines Metropolitan area, Iowa,1978.

This report deals with the probable impact of urban development on the magnitude and frequency of flooding in the lower reach of the Walnut Creek Basin.

The systematic profiling of false identity documents: method validation and performance evaluation using seizures known to originate from common and different sources

False identity documents constitute a potential powerful source of forensic intelligence because they are essential elements of transnational crime and provide cover for organized crime. In previous work, a systematic profiling method using false documents' visual features has been built within a forensic intelligence model. In the current study, the comparison process and metrics lying at the heart of this profiling method are described and evaluated. This evaluation takes advantage of 347 false identity documents of four different types seized in two countries whose sources were known to be common or different (following police investigations and dismantling of counterfeit factories). Intra-source and inter-sources variations were evaluated through the computation of more than 7500 similarity scores. The profiling method could thus be validated and its performance assessed using two complementary approaches to measuring type I and type II error rates: a binary classification and the computation of likelihood ratios. Very low error rates were measured across the four document types, demonstrating the validity and robustness of the method to link documents to a common source or to differentiate them. These results pave the way for an operational implementation of a systematic profiling process integrated in a developed forensic intelligence model.

Report of the Interim Flood Control Committee : to Governor Robert D. Blue for submission to the fifty-third General Assembly,1948

This report includes discussions of the general subject of water resources and flood control, including the presentation of facts and arguments which were considered in the drafting of this report. It also discusses various bills presented and a brief explanation of each bill.

The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK

Research has found that both flood magnitude and frequency in the UK may have increased over the last five decades. However, evaluating whether or not this is a systematic trend is difficult because of the lack of longer records. Here we compile and consider an extreme flood record that extends back to 1770. Since 1770, there have been 137 recorded extreme floods. However, over this period, there is not a unidirectional trend of rising extreme flood risk over time. Instead, there are clear flood-rich and flood-poor periods. Three main flood-rich periods were identified: 18731904, 19231933, and 1994 onwards. To provide a first analysis of what is driving these periods, and given the paucity of more sophisticated datasets that extend back to the 18th century, objective Lamb weather types were used. Of the 27 objective Lamb weather types, only 11 could be associated with the extreme floods during the gauged period, and only 5 of these accounted for > 80% of recorded extreme floods The importance of these five weather types over a longer timescale for flood risk in Carlisle was assessed, through calculating the proportion of each hydrological year classified as being associated with these flood-generating weather types. Two periods clearly had more than the average proportions of the year classified as one of the flood causing weather types; 19001940 and 19832007; and these two periods both contained flood-rich hydrological records. Thus, the analysis suggests that systematic organisation of the North Atlantic climate system may be manifest as periods of elevated and reduced flood risk, an observation that has major implications for analyses that assume that climatic drivers of flood risk can be either statistically stationary or are following a simple trend. Copyright (c) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Estimating Design-Flood Discharges for Streams in Iowa Using Drainage-Basin and Channel-Geometry Characteristics, HR-322, 1993

Drainage-basin and channel-geometry multiple-regression equations are presented for estimating design-flood discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years at stream sites on rural, unregulated streams in Iowa. Design-flood discharge estimates determined by Pearson Type-III analyses using data collected through the 1990 water year are reported for the 188 streamflow-gaging stations used in either the drainage-basin or channel-geometry regression analyses. Ordinary least-squares multiple-regression techniques were used to identify selected drainage-basin and channel-geometry regions. Weighted least-squares multiple-regression techniques, which account for differences in the variance of flows at different gaging stations and for variable lengths in station records, were used to estimate the regression parameters. Statewide drainage-basin equations were developed from analyses of 164 streamflow-gaging stations. Drainage-basin characteristics were quantified using a geographic-information-system (GIS) procedure to process topographic maps and digital cartographic data. The significant characteristics identified for the drainage-basin equations included contributing drainage area, relative relief, drainage frequency, and 2-year, 24-hour precipitation intensity. The average standard errors of prediction for the drainage-basin equations ranged from 38.6% to 50.2%. The GIS procedure expanded the capability to quantitatively relate drainage-basin characteristics to the magnitude and frequency of floods for stream sites in Iowa and provides a flood-estimation method that is independent of hydrologic regionalization. Statewide and regional channel-geometry regression equations were developed from analyses of 157 streamflow-gaging stations. Channel-geometry characteristics were measured on site and on topographic maps. Statewide and regional channel-geometry regression equations that are dependent on whether a stream has been channelized were developed on the basis of bankfull and active-channel characteristics. The significant channel-geometry characteristics identified for the statewide and regional regression equations included bankfull width and bankfull depth for natural channels unaffected by channelization, and active-channel width for stabilized channels affected by channelization. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from 41.0% to 68.4% for the statewide channel-geometry equations and from 30.3% to 70.0% for the regional channel-geometry equations. Procedures provided for applying the drainage-basin and channel-geometry regression equations depend on whether the design-flood discharge estimate is for a site on an ungaged stream, an ungaged site on a gaged stream, or a gaged site. When both a drainage-basin and a channel-geometry regression-equation estimate are available for a stream site, a procedure is presented for determining a weighted average of the two flood estimates.