A Data Driven Tool supported CLD Creation Approach

The creation of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) is a major phase in the System Dynamics (SD) life-cycle, since the created CLDs express dependencies and feedback in the system under study, as well as, guide modellers in building meaningful simulation models. The cre-ation of CLDs is still subject to the modeller's domain expertise (mental model) and her ability to abstract the system, because of the strong de-pendency on semantic knowledge. Since the beginning of SD, available system data sources (written and numerical models) have always been sparsely available, very limited and imperfect and thus of little benefit to the whole modelling process. However, in recent years, we have seen an explosion in generated data, especially in all business related domains that are analysed via Business Dynamics (BD). In this paper, we intro-duce a systematic tool supported CLD creation approach, which analyses and utilises available disparate data sources within the business domain. We demonstrate the application of our methodology on a given business use-case and evaluate the resulting CLD. Finally, we propose directions for future research to further push the automation in the CLD creation and increase confidence in the generated CLDs.

Sustainability Enhancement of a Turbine Vane Manufacturing Cell through Digital Simulation based Design

Modern manufacturing systems should satisfy emerging needs related to sustainable development. The design of sustainable manufacturing systems can be valuably supported by simulation, traditionally employed mainly for time and cost reduction. In this paper, a multi-purpose digital simulation approach is proposed to deal with sustainable manufacturing systems design through Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and 3D digital human modelling. DES models integrated with data on power consumption of the manufacturing equipment are utilized to simulate different scenarios with the aim to improve productivity as well as energy efficiency, avoiding resource and energy waste. 3D simulation based on digital human modelling is employed to assess human factors issues related to ergonomics and safety of manufacturing systems. The approach is implemented for the sustainability enhancement of a real manufacturing cell of the aerospace industry, automated by robotic deburring. Alternative scenarios are proposed and simulated, obtaining a significant improvement in terms of energy efficiency (−87%) for the new deburring cell, and a reduction of energy consumption around −69% for the coordinate measuring machine, with high potential annual energy cost savings and increased energy efficiency. Moreover, the simulation-based ergonomic assessment of human operator postures allows 25% improvement of the workcell ergonomic index.

Dynamic Simulation Methods for Evaluating Motor Vehicle and Roadway Design and Resolving Policy Issues, 1990

This study had three objectives: (1) to develop a comprehensive truck simulation that executes rapidly, has a modular program construction to allow variation of vehicle characteristics, and is able to realistically predict vehicle motion and the tire-road surface interaction forces; (2) to develop a model of doweled portland cement concrete pavement that can be used to determine slab deflection and stress at predetermined nodes, and that allows for the variation of traditional thickness design factors; and (3) to implement these two models on a work station with suitable menu driven modules so that both existing and proposed pavements can be evaluated with respect to design life, given specific characteristics of the heavy vehicles that will be using the facility. This report summarizes the work that has been performed during the first year of the study. Briefly, the following has been accomplished: A two dimensional model of a typical 3-S2 tractor-trailer combination was created. A finite element structural analysis program, ANSYS, was used to model the pavement. Computer runs have been performed varying the parameters defining both vehicle and road elements. The resulting time specific displacements for each node are plotted, and the displacement basin is generated for defined vehicles. Relative damage to the pavement can then be estimated. A damage function resulting from load replications must be assumed that will be reflected by further pavement deterioration. Comparison with actual damage on Interstate 80 will eventually allow verification of these procedures.

Reprint: Learning With a Strategic Management Simulation Q2 Game: A Case Study

The use of simulation games as a pedagogic method is well established though its effective use is context-driven. This study adds to the increasing growing body of empirical evidence of the effectiveness of simulation games but more importantly emphasises why by explaining the instructional design implemented reflecting best practices. This multimethod study finds evidence that student learning was enhanced through the use of simulation games, reflected in the two key themes; simulation games as a catalyst for learning and simulation games as a vehicle for learning. In so doing the research provides one of the few empirically based studies that support simulation games in enhancing learning and, more importantly, contextualizes the enhancement in terms of the instructional design of the curriculum. This research should prove valuable for those with an academic interest in the use of simulation games and management educators who use, or are considering its use. Further, the findings contribute to the academic debate concerning the effective implementation of simulation game-based training in business and management education.

Meeting on Provisions in Licensing Incorporating new developments in daily licensing practice: Setting conditions for open access, patron driven access, and data & text mining

Following the workshop on new developments in daily licensing practice in November 2011, we brought together fourteen representatives from national consortia (from Denmark, Germany, Netherlands and the UK) and publishers (Elsevier, SAGE and Springer) met in Copenhagen on 9 March 2012 to discuss provisions in licences to accommodate new developments. The one day workshop aimed to: present background and ideas regarding the provisions KE Licensing Expert Group developed; introduce and explain the provisions the invited publishers currently use;ascertain agreement on the wording for long term preservation, continuous access and course packs; give insight and more clarity about the use of open access provisions in licences; discuss a roadmap for inclusion of the provisions in the publishers’ licences; result in report to disseminate the outcome of the meeting. Participants of the workshop were: United Kingdom: Lorraine Estelle (Jisc Collections) Denmark: Lotte Eivor Jørgensen (DEFF), Lone Madsen (Southern University of Denmark), Anne Sandfær (DEFF/Knowledge Exchange) Germany: Hildegard Schaeffler (Bavarian State Library), Markus Brammer (TIB) The Netherlands: Wilma Mossink (SURF), Nol Verhagen (University of Amsterdam), Marc Dupuis (SURF/Knowledge Exchange) Publishers: Alicia Wise (Elsevier), Yvonne Campfens (Springer), Bettina Goerner (Springer), Leo Walford (Sage) Knowledge Exchange: Keith Russell The main outcome of the workshop was that it would be valuable to have a standard set of clauses which could used in negotiations, this would make concluding licences a lot easier and more efficient. The comments on the model provisions the Licensing Expert group had drafted will be taken into account and the provisions will be reformulated. Data and text mining is a new development and demand for access to allow for this is growing. It would be easier if there was a simpler way to access materials so they could be more easily mined. However there are still outstanding questions on how authors of articles that have been mined can be properly attributed.

DATA DRIVEN APPROACHES TO IDENTIFY DETERMINANTS OF HEART DISEASES AND CANCER RESISTANCE

Cancer and cardio-vascular diseases are the leading causes of death world-wide. Caused by systemic genetic and molecular disruptions in cells, these disorders are the manifestation of profound disturbance of normal cellular homeostasis. People suffering or at high risk for these disorders need early diagnosis and personalized therapeutic intervention. Successful implementation of such clinical measures can significantly improve global health. However, development of effective therapies is hindered by the challenges in identifying genetic and molecular determinants of the onset of diseases; and in cases where therapies already exist, the main challenge is to identify molecular determinants that drive resistance to the therapies. Due to the progress in sequencing technologies, the access to a large genome-wide biological data is now extended far beyond few experimental labs to the global research community. The unprecedented availability of the data has revolutionized the capabilities of computational researchers, enabling them to collaboratively address the long standing problems from many different perspectives. Likewise, this thesis tackles the two main public health related challenges using data driven approaches. Numerous association studies have been proposed to identify genomic variants that determine disease. However, their clinical utility remains limited due to their inability to distinguish causal variants from associated variants. In the presented thesis, we first propose a simple scheme that improves association studies in supervised fashion and has shown its applicability in identifying genomic regulatory variants associated with hypertension. Next, we propose a coupled Bayesian regression approach -- eQTeL, which leverages epigenetic data to estimate regulatory and gene interaction potential, and identifies combinations of regulatory genomic variants that explain the gene expression variance. On human heart data, eQTeL not only explains a significantly greater proportion of expression variance in samples, but also predicts gene expression more accurately than other methods. We demonstrate that eQTeL accurately detects causal regulatory SNPs by simulation, particularly those with small effect sizes. Using various functional data, we show that SNPs detected by eQTeL are enriched for allele-specific protein binding and histone modifications, which potentially disrupt binding of core cardiac transcription factors and are spatially proximal to their target. eQTeL SNPs capture a substantial proportion of genetic determinants of expression variance and we estimate that 58% of these SNPs are putatively causal. The challenge of identifying molecular determinants of cancer resistance so far could only be dealt with labor intensive and costly experimental studies, and in case of experimental drugs such studies are infeasible. Here we take a fundamentally different data driven approach to understand the evolving landscape of emerging resistance. We introduce a novel class of genetic interactions termed synthetic rescues (SR) in cancer, which denotes a functional interaction between two genes where a change in the activity of one vulnerable gene (which may be a target of a cancer drug) is lethal, but subsequently altered activity of its partner rescuer gene restores cell viability. Next we describe a comprehensive computational framework --termed INCISOR-- for identifying SR underlying cancer resistance. Applying INCISOR to mine The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), a large collection of cancer patient data, we identified the first pan-cancer SR networks, composed of interactions common to many cancer types. We experimentally test and validate a subset of these interactions involving the master regulator gene mTOR. We find that rescuer genes become increasingly activated as breast cancer progresses, testifying to pervasive ongoing rescue processes. We show that SRs can be utilized to successfully predict patients' survival and response to the majority of current cancer drugs, and importantly, for predicting the emergence of drug resistance from the initial tumor biopsy. Our analysis suggests a potential new strategy for enhancing the effectiveness of existing cancer therapies by targeting their rescuer genes to counteract resistance. The thesis provides statistical frameworks that can harness ever increasing high throughput genomic data to address challenges in determining the molecular underpinnings of hypertension, cardiovascular disease and cancer resistance. We discover novel molecular mechanistic insights that will advance the progress in early disease prevention and personalized therapeutics. Our analyses sheds light on the fundamental biological understanding of gene regulation and interaction, and opens up exciting avenues of translational applications in risk prediction and therapeutics.

Global change and climate-driven invasion of the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) along European coasts: a bioenergetics modelling approach

Aim The spread of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems world-wide is one of today's most serious environmental concerns. Using mechanistic modelling, we investigated how global change relates to the invasion of European coasts by a non-native marine invertebrate, the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Location Bourgneuf Bay on the French Atlantic coast was considered as the northern boundary of C. gigas expansion at the time of its introduction to Europe in the 1970s. From this latitudinal reference, variations in the spatial distribution of the C. gigas reproductive niche were analysed along the north-western European coast from Gibraltar to Norway. Methods The effects of environmental variations on C. gigas physiology and phenology were studied using a bioenergetics model based on Dynamic Energy Budget theory. The model was forced with environmental time series including in situ phytoplankton data, and satellite data of sea surface temperature and suspended particulate matter concentration. Results Simulation outputs were successfully validated against in situ oyster growth data. In Bourgneuf Bay, the rise in seawater temperature and phytoplankton concentration has increased C. gigas reproductive effort and led to precocious spawning periods since the 1960s. At the European scale, seawater temperature increase caused a drastic northward shift (1400 km within 30 years) in the C. gigas reproductive niche and optimal thermal conditions for early life stage development. Main conclusions We demonstrated that the poleward expansion of the invasive species C. gigas is related to global warming and increase in phytoplankton abundance. The combination of mechanistic bioenergetics modelling with in situ and satellite environmental data is a valuable framework for ecosystem studies. It offers a generic approach to analyse historical geographical shifts and to predict the biogeographical changes expected to occur in a climate-changing world.

Noise Reduction Technique for a Simulation Optimisation Study

This paper reports on an attempt to apply Genetic Algorithms to the problem of optimising a complex system, through discrete event simulation (Simulation Optimisation), with a view to reducing the noise associated with such a procedure. We are applying this proposed solution approach to our application test bed, a Crossdocking distribution centre, because it provides a good representative of the random and unpredictable behaviour of complex systems i.e. automated machine random failure and the variability of manual order picker skill. It is known that there is noise in the output of discrete event simulation modelling. However, our interest focuses on the effect of noise on the evaluation of the fitness of candidate solutions within the search space, and the development of techniques to handle this noise. The unique quality of our proposed solution approach is we intend to embed a noise reduction technique in our Genetic Algorithm based optimisation procedure, in order for it to be robust enough to handle noise, efficiently estimate suitable fitness function, and produce good quality solutions with minimal computational effort.

Modelling human behaviour and event detection from videos

Automatic analysis of human behaviour in large collections of videos is gaining interest, even more so with the advent of file sharing sites such as YouTube. However, challenges still exist owing to several factors such as inter- and intra-class variations, cluttered backgrounds, occlusion, camera motion, scale, view and illumination changes. This research focuses on modelling human behaviour for action recognition in videos. The developed techniques are validated on large scale benchmark datasets and applied on real-world scenarios such as soccer videos. Three major contributions are made. The first contribution is in the area of proper choice of a feature representation for videos. This involved a study of state-of-the-art techniques for action recognition, feature extraction processing and dimensional reduction techniques so as to yield the best performance with optimal computational requirements. Secondly, temporal modelling of human behaviour is performed. This involved frequency analysis and temporal integration of local information in the video frames to yield a temporal feature vector. Current practices mostly average the frame information over an entire video and neglect the temporal order. Lastly, the proposed framework is applied and further adapted to real-world scenario such as soccer videos. A dataset consisting of video sequences depicting events of players falling is created from actual match data to this end and used to experimentally evaluate the proposed framework.

Field study and numerical simulation of developing red tide in the northern Strait of Hormuz

The catastrophic event of red tide has happened in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman from late summer 2008 to spring 2009. With its devastating effects, the phenomenon shocked all the countries located in the margin of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and caused considerable losses to fishery industries, tourism, and tourist and trade economy of the region. In the maritime cruise carried out by the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman Ecological Research Institute, field data, including temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen and algal density were obtained for this research. Satellite information was received from MODIS and MERIS and SeaWiFS sensors. Temperature and surface chlorophyll images were obtained and compared with the field data and data of PROBE model. The results obtained from the present research indicated that with the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (HAB), the Chlorophyll-a and the dissolved oxygen contents increased in the surface water. Maximum algal density was seen in the northern coasts of the Strait of Hormuz. Less concentration of algal density was detected in deep and surface offshore water. Our results show that the occurred algal bloom was the result of seawater temperature drop, water circulation and the adverse environmental pollutions caused by industrial and urban sewages entering the coastal waters in this region of the Persian Gulf ,This red tide phenomenon was started in the Strait of Hormuz and eventually covered about 140,000 km2 of the Persian Gulf and total area of Strait of Hormuz and it survived for 10 months which is a record amongst the occurred algal blooms across the world. Temperature and chlorophyll satellite images were proportionate to the measured values obtained by the field method. This indicates that satellite measurements have acceptable precisions and they can be used in sea monitoring and modeling.

Stochastic simulation of time-series models combined with geostatistics to predict water-table scenarios in a Guarani Aquifer System outcrop area, Brazil

Stochastic methods based on time-series modeling combined with geostatistics can be useful tools to describe the variability of water-table levels in time and space and to account for uncertainty. Monitoring water-level networks can give information about the dynamic of the aquifer domain in both dimensions. Time-series modeling is an elegant way to treat monitoring data without the complexity of physical mechanistic models. Time-series model predictions can be interpolated spatially, with the spatial differences in water-table dynamics determined by the spatial variation in the system properties and the temporal variation driven by the dynamics of the inputs into the system. An integration of stochastic methods is presented, based on time-series modeling and geostatistics as a framework to predict water levels for decision making in groundwater management and land-use planning. The methodology is applied in a case study in a Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) outcrop area located in the southeastern part of Brazil. Communication of results in a clear and understandable form, via simulated scenarios, is discussed as an alternative, when translating scientific knowledge into applications of stochastic hydrogeology in large aquifers with limited monitoring network coverage like the GAS.

Intelligent pipeline control - a simulation study in the automotive sector

Automotive producers are aiming to make their order fulfilment processes more flexible. Opening the pipeline of planned products for dynamic allocation to dealers/ customers is a significant step to be more flexible but the behaviour of such Virtual-Build-To-Order systems are complex to predict and their performance varies significantly as product variety levels change. This study investigates the potential for intelligent control of the pipeline feed, taking into account the current status of inventory (level and mix) and of the volume and mix of unsold products in the planning pipeline, as well as the demand profile. Five ‘intelligent’ methods for selecting the next product to be planned into the production pipeline are analysed using a discrete event simulation model and compared to the unintelligent random feed. The methods are tested under two conditions, firstly when customers must be fulfilled with the exact product they request, and secondly when customers trade-off a shorter waiting time for compromise in specification. The two forms of customer behaviour have a substantial impact on the performance of the methods and there are also significant differences between the methods themselves. When the producer has an accurate model of customer demand, methods that attempt to harmonise the mix in the system to the demand distribution are superior.

A Visual Analytics Approach to Comparing Cohorts of Event Sequences

Sequences of timestamped events are currently being generated across nearly every domain of data analytics, from e-commerce web logging to electronic health records used by doctors and medical researchers. Every day, this data type is reviewed by humans who apply statistical tests, hoping to learn everything they can about how these processes work, why they break, and how they can be improved upon. To further uncover how these processes work the way they do, researchers often compare two groups, or cohorts, of event sequences to find the differences and similarities between outcomes and processes. With temporal event sequence data, this task is complex because of the variety of ways single events and sequences of events can differ between the two cohorts of records: the structure of the event sequences (e.g., event order, co-occurring events, or frequencies of events), the attributes about the events and records (e.g., gender of a patient), or metrics about the timestamps themselves (e.g., duration of an event). Running statistical tests to cover all these cases and determining which results are significant becomes cumbersome. Current visual analytics tools for comparing groups of event sequences emphasize a purely statistical or purely visual approach for comparison. Visual analytics tools leverage humans' ability to easily see patterns and anomalies that they were not expecting, but is limited by uncertainty in findings. Statistical tools emphasize finding significant differences in the data, but often requires researchers have a concrete question and doesn't facilitate more general exploration of the data. Combining visual analytics tools with statistical methods leverages the benefits of both approaches for quicker and easier insight discovery. Integrating statistics into a visualization tool presents many challenges on the frontend (e.g., displaying the results of many different metrics concisely) and in the backend (e.g., scalability challenges with running various metrics on multi-dimensional data at once). I begin by exploring the problem of comparing cohorts of event sequences and understanding the questions that analysts commonly ask in this task. From there, I demonstrate that combining automated statistics with an interactive user interface amplifies the benefits of both types of tools, thereby enabling analysts to conduct quicker and easier data exploration, hypothesis generation, and insight discovery. The direct contributions of this dissertation are: (1) a taxonomy of metrics for comparing cohorts of temporal event sequences, (2) a statistical framework for exploratory data analysis with a method I refer to as high-volume hypothesis testing (HVHT), (3) a family of visualizations and guidelines for interaction techniques that are useful for understanding and parsing the results, and (4) a user study, five long-term case studies, and five short-term case studies which demonstrate the utility and impact of these methods in various domains: four in the medical domain, one in web log analysis, two in education, and one each in social networks, sports analytics, and security. My dissertation contributes an understanding of how cohorts of temporal event sequences are commonly compared and the difficulties associated with applying and parsing the results of these metrics. It also contributes a set of visualizations, algorithms, and design guidelines for balancing automated statistics with user-driven analysis to guide users to significant, distinguishing features between cohorts. This work opens avenues for future research in comparing two or more groups of temporal event sequences, opening traditional machine learning and data mining techniques to user interaction, and extending the principles found in this dissertation to data types beyond temporal event sequences.

Optimisation of a crossdocking distribution centre simulation model

This paper reports on continuing research into the modelling of an order picking process within a Crossdocking distribution centre using Simulation Optimisation. The aim of this project is to optimise a discrete event simulation model and to understand factors that affect finding its optimal performance. Our initial investigation revealed that the precision of the selected simulation output performance measure and the number of replications required for the evaluation of the optimisation objective function through simulation influences the ability of the optimisation technique. We experimented with Common Random Numbers, in order to improve the precision of our simulation output performance measure, and intended to use the number of replications utilised for this purpose as the initial number of replications for the optimisation of our Crossdocking distribution centre simulation model. Our results demonstrate that we can improve the precision of our selected simulation output performance measure value using Common Random Numbers at various levels of replications. Furthermore, after optimising our Crossdocking distribution centre simulation model, we are able to achieve optimal performance using fewer simulations runs for the simulation model which uses Common Random Numbers as compared to the simulation model which does not use Common Random Numbers.

A novel methodology for simulating contact-line behavior in capillary-driven flows

Despite the wide swath of applications where multiphase fluid contact lines exist, there is still no consensus on an accurate and general simulation methodology. Most prior numerical work has imposed one of the many dynamic contact-angle theories at solid walls. Such approaches are inherently limited by the theory accuracy. In fact, when inertial effects are important, the contact angle may be history dependent and, thus, any single mathematical function is inappropriate. Given these limitations, the present work has two primary goals: 1) create a numerical framework that allows the contact angle to evolve naturally with appropriate contact-line physics and 2) develop equations and numerical methods such that contact-line simulations may be performed on coarse computational meshes.

Fluid flows affected by contact lines are dominated by capillary stresses and require accurate curvature calculations. The level set method was chosen to track the fluid interfaces because it is easy to calculate interface curvature accurately. Unfortunately, the level set reinitialization suffers from an ill-posed mathematical problem at contact lines: a ``blind spot'' exists. Standard techniques to handle this deficiency are shown to introduce parasitic velocity currents that artificially deform freely floating (non-prescribed) contact angles. As an alternative, a new relaxation equation reinitialization is proposed to remove these spurious velocity currents and its concept is further explored with level-set extension velocities.

To capture contact-line physics, two classical boundary conditions, the Navier-slip velocity boundary condition and a fixed contact angle, are implemented in direct numerical simulations (DNS). DNS are found to converge only if the slip length is well resolved by the computational mesh. Unfortunately, since the slip length is often very small compared to fluid structures, these simulations are not computationally feasible for large systems. To address the second goal, a new methodology is proposed which relies on the volumetric-filtered Navier-Stokes equations. Two unclosed terms, an average curvature and a viscous shear VS, are proposed to represent the missing microscale physics on a coarse mesh.

All of these components are then combined into a single framework and tested for a water droplet impacting a partially-wetting substrate. Very good agreement is found for the evolution of the contact diameter in time between the experimental measurements and the numerical simulation. Such comparison would not be possible with prior methods, since the Reynolds number Re and capillary number Ca are large. Furthermore, the experimentally approximated slip length ratio is well outside of the range currently achievable by DNS. This framework is a promising first step towards simulating complex physics in capillary-dominated flows at a reasonable computational expense.